New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

Hi all,

Just thinking about moving to LV now and playing live full time instead of splitting my time between online and travelling to play live.

I'm not interested in your opinion on how the new law will impact online poker.

I'm curious if you think there are a lot of people that once online poker is "illegal", will take the trip to the local casino?

In other words, do you think live games will get better because of this?

-Scott

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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I'm curious if you think there are a lot of people that once online poker is "illegal", will take the trip to the local casino?

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I expect that alot more of this influx, at least in terms of hours they spend at the tables, will be pros than fish. The games will get worse.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

but i think local games might get better, not the casinos but the home game scene. gotta get that fix.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

the games might get worse. i wouldnt surprised if the 1-2 at commerce gets much tougher in the next year for instance.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

The games will be more aggressive, but at the begining they will be more profitable.
I think alot of the multi tabling, nut peddlers who rely on poker tracker and other software are going to have a tougher time than those with live and on-line experience.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

Like those who replied already, I think that in both the short and long terms live games will get a bit tougher, in direct correlation with how much this bill actually restricts people from playing online...

Now don't get me wrong, I CERTAINLY don't think games will be unbeatable or even really tough, just that there will be many more good, ex-multi-tabling players who are too stubborn to find a "real" job and will try playing live for a living. I also think there will be a fair amount of such players who will be unsuccessful playing live (different skillsets are needed to play live vs. online IMO) and will either eventually develop these skills or find another way to make a living.

- Jeff

edit:spellcheck

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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the games might get worse. i wouldnt surprised if the 1-2 at commerce gets much tougher in the next year for instance.

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This was my first thought, too. But, then I had a second, and even a third thought.

Obviously 100-200 online is tougher than 100-200 at commerce. But...are there more good players or not? I think (no, I don't have any data to prove this) that good players multitable more than bad players.

Lets say that there are 6 good players in the online world and 4 bad players. The good players all 6 table, and the bad players only play 1 table at a time. Then, there's 40 "players" at the table (6x6 + 1x4 = 40). That's 4 games going, with one fish at each table. (Obviously, this would mean that some of the six tablers have two seats at the same table, so maybe these nubmers aren't the best, but my point will still be made).

Now, online poker gets shut down. These 10 players all meander on over to LA's friendliest, and want to play 100-200 live. Suddenly, there's 6 good players and 4 fish in the game. The game is a lot better than the game was online, simply because the people can't multitable.

Except mike l.....he can multitable live. But he's special like that.

My thoughts anyways...I think it's good for the live player.

Ramblin' Josh

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

you'll see a lot more crowded bigger games probably.

a lot of people do multi-table, so in order to keep their rate of income theyre gonna have to play bigger, thus stressing out the amount of live fish at first, and i think that will even off after time, but there will be a drop off as the fish are getting absolutely killed instead of coming back and donating some at a time.. they will basically lose EVERY time b/c the games will be tough to beat for a good player, not to mention one who does it for fun/recreation.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

Also, IMO, a good player joining a game doesn't make the game tougher by the degree that one bad player joining it makes it better.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

you know, as I continue to ponder my fate, I'm thinking many live games might actually get better.

Also, I wonder if limit will make somewhat of a comeback. As people can't so easily replenish the kitty online, they might be more inclined to play a game where they can't get stacked by a single bad beat.

(Now I'm not saying limit is dead, I'm just saying the 'it' game right now is NL.)

-Scott

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

i don't mean to pee in your chili, but the 'it' game is plo baby!

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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i don't mean to pee in your chili, but the 'it' game is plo baby!

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Been wanting to learn that for some time now.

-Scott

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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Also, IMO, a good player joining a game doesn't make the game tougher by the degree that one bad player joining it makes it better.

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right. but if the game is tougher and the players are more skilled, don't you think the bad players are gonna go broke faster, thus draining out the economy somewhat for a small time period, or maybe ever? if the games are hard enough for everybody to beat who is good, think about the recreational players? they will be eaten alive instead of chipped away.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

Whether the poor players find the live games tougher or not they will be better off and have greater longevity: they will be playing less hours and less hands per hour than online, they will lose less. Moreover, they will have their gambling under greater control than o/l and so less likely to go bust and and quit for good.

On-line players burn out quicker than live players. The downside is that naturally the pro's are more likely to go out of their way to live poker than the fun players. Also I think the multi-tabling point made is an important one.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

Might be that the higher stakes games get worse, while the lower stakes games get better.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

I don't really see how the games could possibly get better as a result of doomsday.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

i hate to say this again, but i think everyone is overreacting a bit here. these sites will undoubtedly find a workaround to allow americans to have an easy way to deposit funds.

For me, the only "doomsday" scenario is where they actually make it illegal to play online poker.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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i hate to say this again, but i think everyone is overreacting a bit here. these sites will undoubtedly find a workaround to allow americans to have an easy way to deposit funds.

For me, the only "doomsday" scenario is where they actually make it illegal to play online poker.

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insert head here -----> [sand]

try to keep up. did you not hear several of the biggest sites including party are officially pulling out of the US markets?

-Scott

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

All,

I believe the next couple of years will see juicier live games than ever before at all levels.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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All,

I believe the next couple of years will see juicier live games than ever before at all levels.

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haha, diablo you love to rip on internet players.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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All,

I believe the next couple of years will see juicier live games than ever before at all levels.

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I think you're absolutely right about this.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

I truly hope you're right about that Diablo.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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i hate to say this again, but i think everyone is overreacting a bit here. these sites will undoubtedly find a workaround to allow americans to have an easy way to deposit funds.

For me, the only "doomsday" scenario is where they actually make it illegal to play online poker.

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Jiminy [censored] christmas. For months you people said "there is no way that Party et al will allow this legislation to pass."

Then you said "there is no way that Party et al will walk away from the U.S. market without a fight."

Now you say "they will find workarounds."

WAKE UP.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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a good player joining a game doesn't make the game tougher by the degree that one bad player joining it makes it better.

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This is undoubtedly true - and an important point. But, I think you guys are definitely getting way ahead of yourselves. I really don't think a lot of internet players are gonna switch to live play because of this crazy new legislation. There is too much demand for online action and too little resolve from those who want to ban it. I'm not yet convinced that this is "the beginning of the end" of online poker. As a matter of fact, I kinda doubt it....

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

Probly the wrong forum for this discussion - but whatever - the thing is our heads are not in the sand, it's just that this legislation was passed in too much of a sneaky bull sh.it way for it to be the final word on the matter. In the short term there will be workarounds and a number of sites that stay up and running. People will move from PP to FT or something if they have to. And in the long term, this issue will surely be debated on its merits instead of the bs piggy-back nonsense. And when that happens, I do believe that common sense + large demand + big bucks will carry the day.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

Seems like some overthinking going on here Josh. I can see your logic but don't really agree.

Perhaps I am being to simple minded here but it seems pretty simple. Internet players are much better than live players at all equivalent limits. If internet players start coming to play live the games will on average get tougher. It seems the only real question is who is more likely to find their way to the casino..the solid player or the fish? I can't really answer that for sure but it does seem like the players committed to the game or dependent upon it for income are more likely to go out of their way. Also, the internet fish are not even close to as smelly as the live fish. (they sort of can't be since they bust so much faster)

I honestly think it probably won't matter too much either way and share the viewpoint of others in this thread that it is pretty likely that people will find a way to play online. I do fear to some degree (although I am willing to admit it may be irrational) that the games will get tougher mainly because I can't imagine them getting any easier. The live games are currently so amazingly soft that it seems too good to be true. Mike and I talk about this after every trip amd the conversation is always the same. "Wow, that game was so sick. What kind of drugs are those guys smoking. So, I had a pretty bad run of cards for the first hour and folded alomost every hand. I then pick up aces and raise UTG. It hen goes coldcall, coldcall, etc. and at showdown I get shown J4o. Retarded."

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

where are all the higher stakes donkeys gonna go?

they need their fix.

between that and online players making a difficult transition good live players should have their games get BETTER.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

Learning to keep track of how many bets are in the pot and how to cut out two stacks of four or say "raise" probably won't take them very long.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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Perhaps I am being to simple minded here but it seems pretty simple. Internet players are much better than live players at all equivalent limits.

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See, I'm not sure I agree. Now, don't get too excited yet. OBVIOUSLY a 20-40 online game is tougher than a 20-40 live game. But again, I think that this is because of the multitabling of good players. The bad players are spread over more tables online, and more concentrated live. So, I don't think we have an accurate representation of what the 'average' online player is. All we have is a multi-table-weighted-average.

I guess more than saying "the live games will get better", I'm really saying "we can't be sure that the games will get worse". The only way we could say that is if we knew the table average of all winning and all losing players. Then, we'd also need to know how many are gonna start showing up at casinos.

And, lastly (and I think most importantly and most underestimated-ly), being good online does NOT translate to being good live. You have to deal with a lot more boredom, and lot fewer HUD-stats to rely on, and a lot more physical information (tells) being presented.

We shall see. But I'm not pessimistic at all.

Josh

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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online players making a difficult transition

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The only transition I make from playing live to online is that when I play live I expect to win in a huge majority of my sessions and have most of my winning sessions be way larger than my losing sessions. When everyone that played 20/40 online and higher jumps into 100/200 live games that are a joke compared to what they're used to online the games are not going to somehow get softer.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

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All,

I believe the next couple of years will see juicier live games than ever before at all levels.

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Obviously. MANY players who make over $100/hour online will struggle to beat a live game in which $100/hour is possible.
The reasons for this are numerous and super-obvious, so I won't go into them, either.

Re: New law impact on live games. thoughts?
 

I have been playing both live and online games for the past couple months now trying to diversify my poker income.

I play the 40 80 and the 60 120 at commerce on a regular basis and I also multitable on 3 sites right now.

What I have learned is that the BEST live game player would be one of the WORST online players.

When I play at Commerce I always ask the daily regulars on who the best players are around the room and the players they mention when I play against them I always think WOW if this is one of the best players here I am going to be as hurt as I thought with the new law.

The truth is that they are not terrible players, it is just the fact that the fish are so bad at commerce that even a slightly below average player can win a significant amount of money.

With the new law in affect it will add about 1-2 better players at each table at the most. True it will make the game slightly more difficult, but not enough to make a huge difference.

I beleive if you were making 0.5 bb per 100 hands online you will make around 3 bb per 100 in the live game easy.

You will have to move up to higher limit to get the same earnings you got online, but it will be much easier with much less variance.

All assumed that you can adapt to the live game from the online game quickly.