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Performify\'s Pigskin Picks: Week 4 (Regular Edition)

I posted an Early Edition of picks earlier this week recommending people grab two plays. This is to follow up on that early edition with the usual round of full analysis and picks.

As always, these are cross-posted to my blog where you may find the HTML formatting easier to read...

I'll warn you, writeups are a little long this week. You can skip to the end for the summary if that's all you care about.

As always, flames, feedback, discussion, etc welcome. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Last week: 2-0-1 with a push on Game of the Week. +4 units
YTD RESULTS: 8-1-1 on posted picks, +16.39 units (excludes teasers)
1-1-1 on Game of the Week, +0.2 units. 1-0 on Tease of the Week, +2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks: +18.39 units

I feel the need to disclaim right now: I lost my first game, and have gone 8-0 on picks since. This will not continue. I hope to continue to post a winning record every week, of course, but the odds of going undefeated for even two weeks in a row is pretty astronomical let alone three, four, etc. So while we've been good so far, stay patient and don't load up on these picks just because i've delivered two good weeks to open the season. Maintain your adequate bankroll management at all times. Past performance not a guarantee of future results. Not FDIC insured, may lose value.

Chargers -2.5 +109 at Baltimore (note: currently available at -2.5 +103)
As recommended in the early edition, this is the game of the week. While I expected previously that the line would shift pretty massively, it only ended up moving about 9c and has moved back today to be shifted 6c lower. So we still got better value by placing early, but not as much as I expected. But I think, in this case, its actually a good thing: there are quite a few people that think this line is WAY off in the other direction, that Baltimore is the play here. Those people are wrong, for the reasons i'll detail below: and that's actually keeping this line balanced and helping me believe that this isn't a "trap" line after all...

This game isn't about the Chargers being good, as much as it is about the Ravens being bad. Really bad. So much worse than people are giving them credit for. I've heard playoff talks about this team, i've heard even "sleeper Superbowl pick" talk. That's absolutely crazy. I guess those people haven't seen the Raven's last two games, but just are looking at the win/loss column.

Let me give you a little detailed rundown on the Raven's season to date:

Week One: the Ravens beat the Bucs 27-0. We've since seen that the Bucs are one of the worst teams in the league, on both offense and surprisingly on defense. So this game doesn't tell us much, except that the Ravens are better than a terrible team. The Ravens score a defensive touchdown (INT return) and return a fumble to the five yard line, so two of these touchdowns come off the board and you're left with 13 offensive points against the Bucs. Not bad, but not good either.

Lets skip ahead to Week Three: Baltimore gave up 300 passing yards - and two touchdowns - to the Browns last week. The Cleveland Browns. And barely won that game, after trailing the entire way. Browns led 14-3 at half and carried that score over to the start of the fourth quarter. That's right. The Ravens, the team people are saying can beat the Chargers, were down to the Browns 14-3 for three quarters last week. However, the Ravens did put together a 7 play, 68 yards in the last 3:30 of the third, which resulted in scoring their only TD in the game on the first play of the fourth quarter. The Ravens then put together a ten-play drive midway through the 4th to hit a 42-yard field goal to pull to 14-12. The Browns respond by driving the length of the field to almost put the game away. Browns have the ball second and goal from the Baltimore four yard line, when Browns QB gets blindsided as he's throwing and the Ravens get an INT. They then manage to sneak in to field goal range, kicking a 52-yard field goal with just a few seconds left to sneak out a win 15-14. OK fine, most people know about last week. But what about week two?

Most people look at the final of Baltimore 28, Oakland 6 in Week Two and don't see what really happened. Gotta love DirecTV and their NFL Shortcuts for the ability to watch every game, every week...

In the first quarter, the Ravens put together three scoring "drives": eight plays, 25 yards total gained, 25-yard field goal kicked. 5 plays, 20 yards gained, 33-yard field goal kicked. 7 plays, 11 yards gained, 37-yard field goal. Score 9-0 Ravens in the end of the first. None of these drives would have likely resulted in points otherwise, they were all field position scores thanks to starting in great field position due to turnovers, including two Aaron Brooks fumbles on the exchange from center. These weren't even created by the defense, just the regular Oakland inneptitude.

Second quarter, Oakland puts together a 13 play 64-yard drive and hit a field goal, their first points of the season. 9-3 Oakland. Ravens respond with a two minute drill, 7 plays going 65-yards, scoring their only first-string touchdown of the game. 16-3 Ravens at the half.

Ravens get a safety in the third quarter, 18-3. Only score of the third quarter.

Fourth quarter, Ravens get another Oakland turnover, a fumble that's returned 50-some yards, put together a massive 7 play, 11-yard drive and kick another field goal. 21-3 Ravens. Later McNair throws an Int, the Raiders run a couple plays and Seabass kicks a 51 yard field goal to make it 21-6. Then as the Ravens are running out the clock in the end of the fourth quarter (inside of three minutes left), Mike Anderson breaks a 34-yard run for a touchdown to make it 28-6.
Baltimore played an absolutely terrible game start to finish, with only one real drive and one mediocre drive when the game was in hand. And this isn't against a decent team, this is against what is hands down the worst team in the league, with their starting QB knocked out in the first quarter and the backup thrust in to play. And he did a stellar job: Walter fumbled three times, losing one, suffered three interceptions and completed 10 of 27 passes for 162 yards.

Ok, so all that said (sorry for the rant). Why am I so heavy on the Chargers here? Simply put, the Ravens are tremendously overrated for the reasons I've detailed above. McNair is tremendously overrated as a QB. He makes terrible decisions and terrible throws. If the Ravens hadn't pulled out the comeback last week, and had the Oakland game ended 10-0 like the game really reflected, you'd see this line as Chargers -7 or so. Which is where i'd hang it. But Chargers -2.5 is just crazy. And so: Game of the Week, without question.

Enough on the past: how does this game play out? The Chargers roll in to town with a top defense AND the top offense, and a week's rest. You also have Ravens LB / end Terrell Suggs banged up (hamstring) from the last game, a key playmaker, along with a key offensive option Todd Heap playing through pain (ankle). Compared to a rested, fresh, injury-free Chargers team. While the Ravens are off to a strong 3-0 start, I strongly expect they get absolutely steamrolled by the Chargers here in week four.

The Chargers will score early, maybe even twice, and take out the home field advantage, the crowd, and the Baltimore morale. The Ravens offense is going to come out and struggle tremendously. San Diego sports the consistent top rush defense (they were #1 against the run last year too, and haven't been lower than #3 against the rush in the last three years) and they'll be able to shut down J-Lew with only their front seven, which gives them an advantage in the secondary compared to the Ravens who will keep at least one safety close to the line of scrimmage to have a prayer of keeping LT from a two TD day. With the Ravens offense forced to be one-dimensional, they'll be very easy to counter. The Ravens have depended on third down this year to make a lot of their plays, and the Chargers sport the best 3rd down defense in the NFL right now, again thanks to their strong front set which lets them drop four or five in coverage and still get a strong presence at the LOS. So while LT won't have a monster day, he'll top 150 combined yards and score at least once. Rivers will do enough to keep the game in hand: the line knows that Baltimore is going to bring the heat, so look for lots of short quick passes to LT, to Gates. This game isn't going to be all San Diego though - with both strong defenses out there, you're going to see a pretty close game all the way I think. The Chargers probably get the first score or two on the board, but we're going to see several field goals and the game's never really going to be in hand: I really doubt we see the Chargers up three or four TDs. Look for several field goals from each team. Chargers are minus starting SS Terrence Kiel, but they've got a strong backup safety in fourth year player Clinton Hart, who played in all 16 Chargers games last year, starting in five of them. Yes, he's a step down, but its not like he's an untested rookie.

This is a Ravens team that hasn't beaten anyone, and has looked absolutely terrible in two of their three wins against some of the worst teams in the NFL. Yeah, San Diego hasn't beaten anyone yet either, but they've looked tremendous doing it - the Chargers have won their two games by a combined score of 67-7, and that's a huge difference: a team that demonstrates a powerful explosive offense versus a team that's barely managed to win two games against the bottom of the barrel. Chargers 23, Ravens 13. Game of the Week.

One more thing about this game, well more about the future: regarding the Ravens being strongly overrated right now. I'm hearing playoff talks, even talks of postseason success, just because they opened with wins over three cake opponents? The Ravens have a terrible schedule coming up. They face the Chargers this week, then go to Denver, then play the Panthers, at the Saints, and then Cincy. I expect the Ravens drop at least three of these games (Chargers, Panthers, Cincy) and possibly a fourth (at Denver or at New Orleans) and possibly even all five if the Saints stay hot and Denver can turn things around. The Ravens then get a scheduled softball with the Titans, but then play Atlanta, Pitt, @ Cincy, @ KC (who should have Green back by then, or should have Huard acclimated to starting). That's a brutal schedule. I have the Ravens ending the season at 8-8 from this point, and maybe even 7-9 if they drop one they shouldn't, despite their 3-0 start.

49ers +7 (-104) at Kansas City
Yes, Arrowhead is a very tough place to play. But the 49ers have done a tremendous job of keeping games close this year - they've lost to Arizona and St. Louis by a touchdown, and by two TDs to a strong Eagles team. The Chiefs have been struggling at tackle all year, and are now down yet another offensive lineman as Kyle Turley won't play this week and will be replaced by the very mediocre Jordan Black at tackle, compounding the Chiefs woes. The 49ers have strong outside pass rush with outside linebackers Manny Lawson and Brandon Moore off the edges, not to mention standout end Bryant Young. While I do think Kansas City wins this game, I think the 49ers can do enough to keep this close and might even steal the game in an upset if their offense is clicking, if they can create a turnover or two with the pressure they should be able to apply to Chiefs backup QB Huard, and if Frank Gore's ribs are healed enough to carry the offense for another week. 17-14 Kansas City for the SanFran cover. I also can't argue if you want to move this game to -7.5 (currently -122 at Pinny) but I'm going to take just the seven as I think this game gets decided by three or four most of the time. Three unit play. I'm also going to recommend half a unit on the SanFran money line at +278 (.5 unit to win 1.39 units) as I think there's a good chance SanFran wins this game outright if a couple factors line up.

Bengals -5.5 (-101) vs Patriots
I'm surprised that this line hasn't moved tremendously against us. I noted it as a possible play early in the week when it opened at -5.5 and expected it to move across six and I'd re-evaluate later in the week. The fact that the line hasn't moved despite the game seeming like a tremendous mismatch scares me some, which is why this is only a one unit play. This game is a huge Wagerline consensus pick on the Bengals, 72.2% picking against the Pats. But I'm going to be another of the sheep here: the Bengals offense looks way to strong in every aspect, the Patriots haven't looked sharp all season. The Bengals should be able to run the ball well, we'll hear the crowd chanting "Rudi... Rudi... Rudi" much of the day. The Bengals will also utilize the spread no-huddle they've shown in the past weeks to keep the Pats off-balance, and to put up points quick. The Pats had coverage breakdowns vs. the Broncos last week, and Cincinnati has a far more potent passing attack, so I'm expecting Palmer to put up some big numbers as well. 28-10 Bengals in a blowout, but only one unit because I'm worried there's something I'm missing with the public so one-sided here.

Atlanta -7 (-118) vs Cardinals
Last week, Atlanta got worked by an emotional team and looked off-kilter. Fortunately for them they get a mediocre Cardinals defense to rebound against. Short-week teams can sometimes be trouble, but when you've got a team that's as strong rushing the ball as the Falcons, you don't have to worry much. Atlanta pounds the ball on the ground, running a lot of clock. The Cardinals are very aggressive on defense, and if they don't keep their ends at home they're going to get smoked by Vick a couple times on that nifty shotgun option that the Falcons are using to great success. Atlanta loads the box on defense to shut down the run, and gets pressure on Warner with their very quick front seven. Lower scoring than many fantasy players will hope as the clock ticks away due to the Falcons rushing so much. Worth moving the line to -7 from -7.5 as the juice is pretty low already. Falcons 21, Cardinals 13, one unit.

Tease of the Week: Atlanta -1.5, Seattle +8.5 : four units
I feel Seattle is being undervalued and asking a tough Bears team to beat them by more than a TD is a lot. Likewise Atlanta is undervalued here - while there's a possibilty of a large injury tomorrow changing this value, there's also chance of a value shift if they blow out the Saints on MNF.

I like both of these games quite a bit, but especially so in the Wong teaser across the 7 and 3. Big play, four units in my system. Normally a teaser gets two at max, but my system absolutely loves these games with these spreads, and especially so given that they were both Wong Teasers (teasers that cross the critical numbers of 3 and 7) when I recommended the play.

I recommended this play early in the week, while the line was Seattle +2.5. When the line moved to Seattle +3.5 with the news of Shaun Alexander getting struck down by the "How Does it Feel?" Madden Curse, we lost this as a Wong teaser (we lose +EV from the tease as we're no longer crossing the critical number of +3). If you want to play along, i think the game is worth a single unit at the current line (which would be Seattle +9.5) but note that your tease is not nearly as +EV at that point.

if you did grab this big tease early and now want to offload your action, I can't argue with that. I'd recommend watching the Atlanta game since its early, and assuming they cover the -1.5 for the tease, you can then lay off the open portion of the teaser given that the Seattle game is the Sunday night game. I'd recommend taking Chicago -3.5 for a nice middle : right now its Chicago -3.5 +106, so you could place four units on Chicago -3.5 to win 4.24 units, with the following scenario: Chicago wins by more than our tease (9 or more if you grabbed early): lose 4 units on the teaser, win 4.24 units on the spread bet, profit .24 units. If Chicago loses outright or wins by three or less points, you lose the spread bet and win the teaser to break even. And if Chicago wins by 4,5,6,7 or 8 points, you'd hit a very juicy middle and win 4 units on the teaser, 4.24 units on the spread bet, for a win of 8.24 units. But as I said, wait until the Atlanta game completes if you do want to hedge.

<font color="red"> Summary of Picks:
# Chargers -2.5 +109 : 5 units to win 5.45 units
# 49ers +7 (-104) : 3.12 units to win 3 units
# 49ers to win +278 : .5 unit to win 1.39 units
# Bengals -5.5 (-101) : 1.01 units to win 1 unit
# Atlanta -7 (-118) : 1.18 units to win 1 unit
# Teaser: Atlanta -1.5, Seattle +8.5: 4 units to win 4 units</font>

Also, I'm taking a known -EV flier this week. I like to do stuff like this when i'm running good, i consider it one of my ways of giving back to some of the squarer books where I tend to just pick at their softer lines, to ensure that my limits don't get cut. This will NOT count in my plays for the week, but I'm going to post it in case anyone wants to come along. But if you do, you CANNOT hedge the monday game. If you're going to consider hedging, leave it out and just play the six-team tease. I actually think its a pretty strong play in most cases. San Diego is included just because I'm so strong on the game already in handicapping, despite the teaser itself having almost zero value moving from -3 to +3. Remember, this play is -EV in itself, even if it wins. I look at it as a tip for the house, but one where I might just hit a payday if the stars align [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

7 Team Teaser: 1 unit to win 10 units (10:1)
Indianapolis Colts -3
San Diego Chargers +3
Carolina Panthers -1½
Atlanta Falcons -1½
Cincinnati Bengals -½
Seattle Seahawks +9½
Philadelphia Eagles -5