$16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t4225)
Button (t2740)
SB (t4985)
BB (t1550)

Preflop: Hero is in CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t500</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to t1525 (All-in)</font>, Hero calls t1025

I'm posting this per the request of another 2p2er and because of my own doubt that I may have badly misplayed this. 2p2er was Villain in this hand. I ended up raising 2.5BB hoping to put myself in a position where I'd be able to dominate the bubble when the blinds reached the next level(s). Would you raise more because of the antes?

I thought about folding preflop here at first. The table wasn't exactly loose, but not unusually tight either. I would never push here, and I don't like limping in this spot.

When Villain pushed over the top of me, I'm faced with a ~3:1 call. I'm behind to any ace and I'm probably not beating anything in his range. My read is that Villain might realize I'm raising with more hands than usual here and adjust accordingly, but because of the stack sizes, he doesn't have a ton of fold equity so he probably doesn't make this move with trash. However, I made the call anyway because of the odds and noting at the time that if I lose, I'm still left with 2700ish and I'm not in horrible shape.

Was this terrible?

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

no

and villian is terrible for thinking this is terrible.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

line looks good to me
nh sir

MC

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

i do the same, and im soooo tight.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

/me shakes head

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

With what ranges are we raising here?

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
With what ranges are we raising here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd raise probably any Ax, any pair + KT+, QJ, something like that, if the table looks to be a bit tight.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

FWIW, you're getting 2 to 1, not 3 to 1, but the line looks fine to me too.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

I'd put the pusher on any two here and KJo is around a 60% favorite against any two. You're getting roughly 2.4:1 to call. With the pushers range, you have to call with these odds.

The right play here was to fold preflop. You really don't want to mess with the other big stack in this position with KJo.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put the pusher on any two here and KJo is around a 60% favorite against any two. You're getting roughly 2.4:1 to call. With the pushers range, you have to call with these odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think any two is way off here. Most likely more in the range of AT+, KQ, 66+. Villian still has almost 8bbs.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, you're getting 2 to 1, not 3 to 1...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is going to make me sound pretty noobish, but so it goes. I'm calling t1025. At that point the total is t3250 with antes and my call. Before making my call, the total would be t2225. Is it ~2:1 because I'm investing t1025 to win the t2225, or is it ~3:1 because I'm investing t1025 to win t3250 total? It'd be nice to have this clarified because I always seem to get this screwed up. I'm going to assume the former is correct.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

here's what you have:

you're paying 1025 to win 2425 so that's 2.4:1.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

the guy has an M of 4....he's pushing any two here.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is it ~2:1 because I'm investing t1025 to win the t2225, or is it ~3:1 because I'm investing t1025 to win t3250 total?

[/ QUOTE ]

The first one.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

you don't count the amount that you have to put into the pot to call the bet. I think that play is fine, and thinking about the chip stacks if you lose or win is good before calling. I would call the AI and except a 40-60 flip.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
the guy has an M of 4....he's pushing any two here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are very wrong. For one, villain is a 2p2er so he doesn't give a damn about M.

He would stilll have 6.5 bbs if he folds this hand. He knows he has little fold equity. I think he's pretty tight here actually. Obviously his range is dependent on his read on OP.

But, he for sure is not pushing anytwo.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

I think your raise is fine, but I think I fold to his push. Pot odds are great, but this is the bubble so...

Now I'm going to try and back it up with some numbers.

Edit: I ran some numbers.

I gave BB a fairly generous range IMO of 88+,A9s+,AJo+,KTs+,KQo,QTs+ (Pokerstove 10%).

If this is his range, calling his push is -0.27% $ev.

He needs to be pushing 77+,A8s+,ATo+,K9s+,KJo+,QTs+,JTs (13%) for this to be +$EV. I think this would be wishful thinking.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

Yeah. There should be no discussion about folding preflop after you raise.

The real interesting decision is the initial action, and I lean toward folding.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah. There should be no discussion about folding preflop after you raise.

The real interesting decision is the initial action, and I lean toward folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I agree. I was watching Raymer play the WCOOP the other day and he raised from the button, the short stack BB pushed and Raymer snap called with 99. Raymer said he never raises in those situations without planning on calling the allin from the shortstack. That's what you have to decide here.
Although, PF i don't want to push, so think I'd probably just fold.

Re: $16: UTG with KJo and 21BBs on the bubble
 

I completely agree, I look at the stacks and who has those stacks before making any kind of raise.

In this spot, I'd look and think 'is there anyone I have to call a push from?'. The shorty is very close. So, folding here would certainly be fine.

However, I'd also think what are the chances of me getting pushed on? Mostly I would be looking at the big and small stack for this. Is the big stack the type to make a move on me? Is the shorty a guy who is desperate?

Well, I don't know the read on the big stack so that's up to the OP.

However, shorty is 2p2 and understands concepts of gap theory, fold equity, and tournament equity. He understands how important it is to not bust here, and the best way to do that is to avoid showdowns. What does all this mean?

It means his not pushing over your raise very often. Ie., he has a tight range. Ie., you could fold to his push, which my earlier post quantifies.

So, I think I'm raising here, knowing that I'm not calling a push from anyone.