Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

When they got down to 3 handed Wasicka lays down a oesfd. Is this correct to do except in a satelite? For me this seemed like a no brainer that he should call. His best chance to make a run at Jamie was to win that hand. By my best estimates they would have been virtualy even if he wins. Worst case Jamie has the best hand and it holds up and his still finishes 2nd. Is my logic flawed. For those not familiar w/ the hand Binger has ATh, Gold has 34c, and Wasicka has 78s flop comes 5s6sTc. Binger bets out Gold moves in.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Three handed at FT - what were the stacks?

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

I agree. Call.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Yeah, it was a monumental mistake in terms of cEV and even $EV, BUT you have to factor in personal utility, because if he folds and Gold busts Binger in the hand, that's like multiple millions of dollars more than coming in 3rd.

I honestly can't say I'd call in that spot if I knew that folding and sitting there quietly for a few minutes could have been worth a few million dollars, even though it's totally obviously a call in every EV way imaginable.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

I think I call there. Impossible to know unless you're in that spot but how many millions does a man need? If I were there and already had in excess of $2m in the bag (I don't know the payouts), I'd be playing for first, I think. While an extra, what, $2m would be nice, it doesn't really make any difference (wealthy beyond my wildest imaginings as opposed to wealthy beyond my wildest dreams?) whereas first is and always will be first.

Yeah, definite call: Is there really any difference between $4m and 6m?

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

He made a weak/tight fold out of fear. The difference between 1st and 2nd was 3 times the difference between 2nd and 3rd. Plus 1st gets an endorsement deal and invitations to PSI4, PPT, and celebrity tournaments. A lot of people get weak/tight when there is a lot of money on the line, even some professional players.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

seems like the most idiotic hand of all time, yes

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Did Binger fold?

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

FWIW, if Gold has a bigger flush draw, Wasicka is in trouble and is likely to bust in 3rd.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

There is a massive difference between $4m and 6m... 2m to be exact. But I agree, top3 WSOP FT, go for first. In fact I'd insta call it.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

He was damned no matter what his action was after Gold moved in. If he called off his stack with that draw then Binger would have probably folded and if he doesn't get there, he gets flamed to high hell for passing up a good chance at 2 million dollars more.

What I'm saying is, people would call him a moron no matter what he decided and no matter what the outcome of the hand was.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Calling is made more unattractive because, even though it appears Binger is potstuck, he could now fold his hand and just possibly get 2nd just by getting out of the way and folding. If Binger had moved in and Jamie re-shoved then i think the call is a lot easier.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Would of been a terrible call, because Wisicka has to be concerned about all of his outs being live.

For example if Gold held KsQs, he is no longer at least 50% in the hand.

BTW I would of preferred that call to the call with the TT, HU.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

I disagree. If he called and missed. Then he called and missed. I wouldn't call him a moron since I would have called and missed.

p.s. called and missed.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There is a massive difference between $4m and 6m... 2m to be exact. But I agree, top3 WSOP FT, go for first. In fact I'd insta call it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I real terms, what difference is there? What more can you do with $6m that you can't do with $4m? This isn't a poker question and the answer is personal but I tend to believe (possibly misguidedly) that all my financial ambitions would be satisfied as soon as I won $2m - the rest is poker and competition and primacy and status.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

If folding a hand where I have no pair, and a two-card draw to the nuts means I have a strong chance of making $3 million more in a tournament, I'd consider making it.

Looking at it now, and seeing what the river card was, it's easy for us to question. And yeah, if he really wanted to win the tournament and take a run at Gold, going all in would've been a fine play.

I just think it's tough for us to second-guess Wasicka when we weren't there. Could you make that call on a draw when, by folding, you could win $2 or $3 million? I'm not so sure I could.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

I understand what you're saying. But why would your financial ambitions be satisfied if you won 2m? Because you can buy a house, live off interest, create a hefty retirement account? What do millionaires do with millions, most of the time, is create millions more. 6m is three times that of 2m. duh.
I agree all I need is 2m. But with that 2m my goal would be turning it into more, with little risk of course. A lot easier turning 6m into 10m then 2m into 10m and so on.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

There's no chance in hell I fold this hand. Ever.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

There was an enormous amount of discussion on this in the WSOP forum (not sure where those threads are now) and I suspect probably one in the televised poker forum now. At least in the original discussion in the WSOP forum the responses fell into two camps, just like here. "OMG, why wasn't he playing for first with that big draw" and "why risk getting crippled and finishing 3rd."

Personally I'm a fence sitter. I'd like to think I'd make what I think is the correct poker decision and call. But when you're talking that amount of money and taking the almost sure 2nd vs risking finishing 3rd for a better shot at 1st I can see other, non-poker, considerations coming into play. I doubt there are very many people to who $2m isn't a big deal. However, to respond to Registar's point, $2m doesn't go as far as it used to. A lot would depend on your goals and what, if anything, you'd like to use your high ME finish to accomplish.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Binger insta-called after Wasicka folded. I think if I was Wasicka I instacall given the hands Gold was playing and the good chance to double or even triple up, but given the money at stake I could have seem myself folding. Gold hit his straight on the turn but the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would have given Wasicka the winning flush (not being results oriented just explaining what happened).

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

I'd call.

I actually posted this problem in another forum and wasn't happy with the dialogue as it was dominated by a nit, who just wanted to be right and wasn't really thinking out the alternatives.

I think the math also supports a call. I tried to reconstruct the hand from the Card Player logs, but their numbers, it looks, are inexact. I'll post what I got if anyone wants. Barring a big mis-description of the hand though, I'd call after a long time of trying to figure out the math.

Wasicka is being offered a little over 1.5 to 1 on the rest his money - but 2 to 1 if he guesses that Binger - who led at the flop with 3.5M and has 5.5M left over - would call.

I'd call because I think I'd get 2 to 1 on a hand that I believe is the favorite, I'd still get 2nd if Gold busts us both, and I'm not really scared of a higher flush draw being out there.

I certainly understand the psychology of the fold and the difference between 2nd and 3rd place money.

But the angel and devil on my shoulders are arguing, and it's the angel that's saying, "Call!"

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I understand what you're saying. But why would your financial ambitions be satisfied if you won 2m? Because you can buy a house, live off interest, create a hefty retirement account? What do millionaires do with millions, most of the time, is create millions more. 6m is three times that of 2m. duh.
I agree all I need is 2m. But with that 2m my goal would be turning it into more, with little risk of course. A lot easier turning 6m into 10m then 2m into 10m and so on.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I say, it's a personal thing. If all I could think of doing with 2m is make more millions, I think I'd be pretty depressed. My observation of people who make lots of money is that it is the process and not the ostensible reward which counts. They like making money. That's fine. I don't - that's fine too. I left the world's most famous university with a good degree and could be making millions now. I didn't. I travelled the world, pratted about. I don't regret that. When I got my girlfriend pregnant and had to settle down, I had the opportunity to get well paid jobs and I didn't take those either. I don't regret that either. Most of my college friends are now becoming very rich. They work very long hours and have very short holidays whereas I get paid quite well, do bugger all, and have long holidays. I don't regret that.

I am sure that I wouldn't regret coming third, and losing out on $2m guaranteed, if I'd taken the chance at first. But I would regret missing out on a good chance to become world champion, immortalised forever.

I don't know much about the ME FT. I was on holiday, blowing my poker bankroll on long days of summer leisure. But I do know that if I've played 78s and flopped the right end of an OESFD, I'm putting all my chips in, particularly against a player as aggressive as Jamie Gold because second and third are both nowhere and when I've got $4m already, $6m is going to mean precious little more.

That's me though. A lot of people think differently, which is why a lot of people have a lot more money than me.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Binger insta-called after Wasicka folded. I think if I was Wasicka I instacall given the hands Gold was playing and the good chance to double or even triple up, but given the money at stake I could have seem myself folding. Gold hit his straight on the turn but the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would have given Wasicka the winning flush (not being results oriented just explaining what happened).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I'm presuming Binger insta-folds TPTK if the other guy called Gold's push?

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

There's no question that, ignoring the implications regarding personal utility and everything, Wasicka has to call that.

His decision to fold there, if not based on personal utility of money, desire to move up a payout slot when that slot is worth a few million dollars, etc., is awful.

If the extra money is that meaningful to him, then I really can't fault him for folding.

Did he do any interviews where we discussed that hand? Because I'd love to hear what he had to say about it.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Binger insta-called after Wasicka folded. I think if I was Wasicka I instacall given the hands Gold was playing and the good chance to double or even triple up, but given the money at stake I could have seem myself folding. Gold hit his straight on the turn but the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would have given Wasicka the winning flush (not being results oriented just explaining what happened).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I'm presuming Binger insta-folds TPTK if the other guy called Gold's push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so, but it's 3-handed and that hand looks ok in that situation with the draws on the board, but I would guess he would have folded.

I was suprised that Wasicka didn't tank for like an hour (at least on ESPN he didn't). He thought about it briefly and then threw his cards away after not a ton of deliberating.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

During an interview on "The Circuit" he said that the push by Gold(and the speed that he did it) lead him to think that Gold was on a higher flush draw, and that's why he folded.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

I don't get ESPN [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I mean, in Binger's situation, if Wasicka pushes, he's got to think TPTK on a draw heavy board is not looking good and that his best chance of winning is to fold, however crippled that leaves him.

As for Wasicka, he's clearly not unaware that his hand is a favourite over almost any other possible hand (what was the pre-flop action?) and I wouldn't berate him for being a nit. He's made a choice, and if he had a reasonably healthy stack, then it's all still to play for. It's just not a choice that I would have made. That's just me. The more money's at stake, the looser I get.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

He pussied out, but if you felt like you could make a few million dollars in just a few minutes, would you fold that hand? Obviously a contradiction of poker sense and feebleness, but I honestly don't know what I would do in that situation. Seems like an easy call based on the +EV, but would you? Really...would YOU?!?

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like an easy call based on the +EV, but would you? Really...would YOU?!?

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I'll never know cause I'm leading this flop 100% of the time and therefore I won't be put in that spot. I lead flop, Binger pushes, Gold folds, i call, i win ME shipitholla.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

If you can get to that final table, yes, that would be the proper move in the first place. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Wow, so he checked the flop and then folded? OK, that's just [censored] whatever. Did he just limp in pf?

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

It's far from a sure thing that Wasicka folds his way into second. It's quite feasible (as would have happened had Gold not sucked out) that Binger more than doubles up, and then Wasicka is the short stack. Getting Binger all-in against two others is the best way to ensure he gets knocked out. If Binger folds, Waskicka is still getting a sweet overlay with a big draw and a shot to double through Gold.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's far from a sure thing that Wasicka folds his way into second. It's quite feasible (as would have happened had Gold not sucked out) that Binger more than doubles up, and then Wasicka is the short stack. Getting Binger all-in against two others is the best way to ensure he gets knocked out. If Binger folds, Waskicka is still getting a sweet overlay with a big draw and a shot to double through Gold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a far cry from a sure thing, no question about that. But it's a possibility, and I'll willingly admit I've made some marginal folds for far less money when I was playing online and I was uncertain about a call.

Now, in this spot, I'd always, always call at any reasonable stakes, what the hell else were you hoping for when you played some middle suited connectors?

But would I consider folding for, say, a 40% chance of winning 2 million dollars? Probably not, given that calling is probably a 50% chance of winning far more money if you include all the endorsement/other exposure/future EV of comingin 1st...but there are certainly players capable of making that fold, and Wasicka was one of them, I guess. Or he totally sucks at poker.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Obviously, Wasicka was correct to make the fold, because Jamie was once against "trapping him."

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

What were the chip counts at the time? Did Wasicka have Binger outchipped? I think he did. When I saw this, I was screaming call call call, the worst that can happen is that you finish 2nd and the best that can happen is you almost triple up and have a decent shot against Gold. But the third possibility is that Binger takes down the hand and leaves Wasicka as the short stack. Not sure what the difference between 3rd and 2nd was, but it's that amount of money that caused Wasicka to fold. He's only guaranteed 2nd if Gold takes down thand hand.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

I really think people are seing the cards too much here, its easy to make the call knowing what jamie has, and Im sure Wasicka gets it all in against one person, but if Jamie has KQs its a coinflip in jamie's favor, if he's got something like Ts9s Wasicka is a 3 to 1 dog. If his read is that gold has higher spades then it would be kinda stubborn to call.

Also the comment that whats the diff between 4 and 6 mill is rediculous, its 2 more million! Thats a really nice house 100% paid for, its 200 10k buyins, it could be extra money to put in stocks that eventually turns into 5 mill. The more money you have the easier it is to make even more.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really think people are seing the cards too much here

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not really. It's 3-handed. Gold has been playing almost every pot all day, he's insanely active and aggressive, he doesn't need a big hand here. His range is massive playing 3-handed on board with many drawing possibilities. Actually reading Gold for higher spades in this spot is pretty difficult given the way Gold played all day. Gold could be doing that with any T, any draw, any piece of the board possibly.

There should have been no question in Wasicka's mind that he was making an EV mistake folding.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Here's my reconstruction of the hand:

Blinds are 200K and 400K, ante is 50K.

Gold limps from the button and Wasicka limps from the small blind.

Binger raises to 1,500,000 from the big blind. Gold and Wasicka call.

After the preflop betting, the pot is 5,850,000.

Gold's stack is now 57,800,000.
Wasicka 16,350,000.
Binger 9,000,000.

Gold's stack is effectively 16,350,000. 41,450,000 isn't at risk on this hand.

Flop is 10c-6s-5s.

Wasicka, holding 8s-7s, checks. (Some preferred betting out here, and I agree.)

Binger bets 3,500,000. He has 5,500,000 left. Pot is now 9,350,000.

Gold moves all-in to 16,350,000. Pot is now 25,700,000.

Wasicka's stack is 16,350,000. Binger is behind him with 5,500,000 left.

3-Way Main Pot: 20,350,000.
Side Pot with Gold: 10,850,000.

Difference between 3rd and 2nd: $1,979,189.
Difference between 2nd and 1st: $5,897,501.
Difference between 3rd and 1st: $7,876,690.


(If Wasicka wins a 3-way all-in - and Binger is eliminated - he would lead 47,550,000 to 41,450,000.)

The worst case scenarios for Wasicka is Binger winning the main pot, and losing the sidepot to Gold, or Binger actually folding (which I thought was unlikely since he's bet 3,500,000, has 5,500,000 left and would be getting 3.7 to 1 on the rest of it if he sent it in - the only hand that leads 3.5M and folds to 5.5M more and getting 3.7 to 1 is a bluff with no draw) and Wasicka losing to Gold in a 2-way pot.

In the end, I think risking 2M for 2M *and* 3M in equity with 8s-7s on a 10c-6s-5s flop is a fine play.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

Given Jamie's image (even though he's luckboxed more hands in one tourney than I have in my entire life) I don't see how we read him for 2 higher spades.

Why can't Jamie have T6, 56, T5, QT, JT . . . . ? Why can't Binger have TPWK?

Payouts were $12M, $6M, $4M. If we just figure $EV, and we say that given their hand ranges and the fact that Binger seems potstuck, we could give Jamie a 50% chance of knocking him out.

So a really lame $EV calc you could do at the table is, if I call here and Binger folds (thinking he'll do this near 100% of the time) hoping I get knocked out, how much more value do I need to get to make this a +$EV call?

Well, if Jamie is 50% to knock Binger out, what does the situation play out as?

50% Binger goes out * 2M = +$1 M
50% Binger doubles up * 50% I still take 2nd * 2m = +500K
50% Binger doubles up * 50% he takes 2nd * I get 0 = 0

So I have to guarantee myself a decision that will make me an extra $1.5 Million if I call here. If I call here and win 50% of the time, will that put me in enough of a position to win 1st place an additional 19% of the time over my current standing (1.5/8, the difference between first and third)?

Having no idea what the chipstacks are, I can't say. Given that I know Jamie had a monster stack, seems closer than I thought at first.

Re: Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think people are seing the cards too much here

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No, not really. It's 3-handed. Gold has been playing almost every pot all day, he's insanely active and aggressive, he doesn't need a big hand here. His range is massive playing 3-handed on board with many drawing possibilities. Actually reading Gold for higher spades in this spot is pretty difficult given the way Gold played all day. Gold could be doing that with any T, any draw, any piece of the board possibly.

There should have been no question in Wasicka's mind that he was making an EV mistake folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im operating under the quote that Wasicka said he thought gold had higher spades the way he put his chips in and how quickly he did it etc, if this is his read why ignore that? If he thinks Jamie has KQs and other guy has AT he's only got 31% equity in the hand and doesnt have the odds to call. His read was wrong but why should he ignore his read when he's already gotten this far by playing with his reads?