all you college drop outs...
 

if at this moment, you were unable to play poker anymore what would your next course of action be?

become a live pro?

go back to school?

open a business?

live off interest?

All you guys mention that you are going to go into other forms of investment business if poker dies off, but nobody gives many details. Alot of businesses fail, and they require very large start up costs, and do not return that much in revenue.

i suspect that many of you will just dodge this question, because you really have no idea what you are going to do...

my plan, is to basically just play poker as long as I can online. Once I hit the 1.5/2m after taxes range, which will hopefully be in the next 18 months since I'm going to try and play a ton of hours, I feel like I can basically live off of the interest and think about opening some kind of business if i find something that interests me/looks profitable.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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Once I hit the 1.5/2m after taxes range, which will hopefully be in the next 18 months since I'm going to try and play a ton of hours, I feel like I can basically live off of the interest

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Depending on the specifics, you do realize how small your annual income is probably going to be, right?

Assuming that you mean interest in the "money market account" sense, your real return is probably going to be about 2% per year, or $40,000.

ML4L

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

I'm an 18 year old college drop out. I'll be doing some business which honestly I really cannot go into, but I definitely know what I'm doing. That, along with becoming a live pro at the card clubs here in Orlando will be my new form of income which should yield me $250k+/year

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

I feel like KKF has little interest in returning to the US, so that $40k can go a long way.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

cash out my BR and live like a god in a third world country for the next 15 years.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

I recently graduated college so this might not apply to me as much. But for those who wishes to be in "business," you have a tough road ahead. Yes, probably tougher than beating high stakes online poker. The main reason is almost every other small business idea has been done to death. Moreover, with corporations such as Wal-mart, Starbucks, McDonalds, it is almost impossible for one to start out and expect to break even in the first few years, let alone gain profits. The way poker numb us from 5 to 6 figure losses doesn't help either (though this might be a positive for some of us :-).

As for my plan, I've been trying to open up a business and have found none despite looking around everywhere I go in the city; and all the good locations are taken. The only other activity I find close to poker is investing. For a person that has 1-2 million, passive investing via index funds that theorically compound at 8-10% annually is probably more than enough to live off while you grind out live. Yes, live.

And I would probably go to Law School; Mike McDermont style haha.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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Once I hit the 1.5/2m after taxes range, which will hopefully be in the next 18 months since I'm going to try and play a ton of hours, I feel like I can basically live off of the interest

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on the specifics, you do realize how small your annual income is probably going to be, right?

Assuming that you mean interest in the "money market account" sense, your real return is probably going to be about 2% per year, or $40,000.

ML4L

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Your model would have me dying without spending the inital $2m.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

trading stock/futures markets

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm an 18 year old college drop out. I'll be doing some business which honestly I really cannot go into, but I definitely know what I'm doing. That, along with becoming a live pro at the card clubs here in Orlando will be my new form of income which should yield me $250k+/year

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Underground cardrooms?

And can you be 18 years old and "know what you are doing in running a business". Did you learn from your parents?

Regardless, like Slow mentioned, unless you are in a niche market, you are going to have tons of competition.

If you just look at businesses being sold in a newspaper, you will see advertisements that will have ranges such as $400K to own, $50K in yearly revenues. Not exactly glamorous.

Also, $250K+/yr playing live poker is a bit ambitious since you get 30 hands/hour. I have no idea what live pros make in Vegas??

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

None of you guys are interested in real estate investing? That's my plan if i ever get as much money as some of you guys...research and invest in real estate. I heard this guy was fairly successful at it.

http://www.hollandsentinel.com/images/100899/trump.jpg

Investing in stocks successfully which other people have mentioned is also a goal of mine.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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trading stock/futures markets

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What makes you think you arent going to be a fish?

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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trading stock/futures markets

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What makes you think you arent going to be a fish?

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everyones a fish when they start.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

Stock and real estate seems like a good way to invest conservatively. Buffet returns 30% and he is a God, right? So what is your best return going to be?

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

we don't learn anything about business in high school. where did all your high stakes college drop outs learn about all this investing crap?

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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we don't learn anything about business in high school. where did all your high stakes college drop outs learn about all this investing crap?

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/po...p;Board=stocks


I don't know what my return will be, probably not to great when i start out, but as i move on and add more and more property to what i own hopefully whatever percent it is there will be enough of it that i can relax and let the money roll in by the time I'm 40. I like to think of what I will try to do as a game of monopoly. Search and seek out a lot of profitable property investments like apartment complexes etc. and once i get them going, hire employees to take care of the maintenance. Then start going after bigger projects. Got to get the capital you guys have first though.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Once I hit the 1.5/2m after taxes range, which will hopefully be in the next 18 months since I'm going to try and play a ton of hours, I feel like I can basically live off of the interest

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on the specifics, you do realize how small your annual income is probably going to be, right?

Assuming that you mean interest in the "money market account" sense, your real return is probably going to be about 2% per year, or $40,000.

ML4L

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly not money markets. Perhaps a treasury ladder (5 yr) or a 50/50 mix of total bond mkt index with total stock mkt index should be able to generate an income stream of 4.0%.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

I was considering leaving the US and living in a cheaper country

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

wow, just use a broadly diversified portfolio with a heavy emphasis in equities with about 80% of your total funds, and just allow it to grow

the power of compounding interest will double, triple, or even more radically increase your nest egg!

keep the rest in something short term and highly liquid, or use it to play smaller stakes poker, live off of rakeback

most important thing here is to take some short term risk for a longer timeline and ALLOW THE INTEREST (% growth) TO COMPOUND ON THE INTEREST!

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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[ QUOTE ]
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Once I hit the 1.5/2m after taxes range, which will hopefully be in the next 18 months since I'm going to try and play a ton of hours, I feel like I can basically live off of the interest

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on the specifics, you do realize how small your annual income is probably going to be, right?

Assuming that you mean interest in the "money market account" sense, your real return is probably going to be about 2% per year, or $40,000.

ML4L

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Your model would have me dying without spending the inital $2m.

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Indeed it does; I was being a little conservative there, since outliving one's money is a fear that most people (should rightfully) have. Very few things sadder to me than seeing an 80-year old work a fast food register...

If you start digging into principal, you're going to better that $40,000 number (although, note that I gave you the benefit of the doubt with $2 mil instead of $1.5... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]). And, as it's been pointed out, that money can go a long way with a low cost of living.

The reason that I posted was not really for you; you're clearly extremely intelligent about such things and have thought this out. It was more for anyone who saw your plan and intended to emulate you without really understanding finance/economics. Your typical college drop-out, despite being a very good poker player, probably doesn't understand the difference between a nominal and real return. So, when he/she sees the ING rate of 5% or whatever, he/she thinks that's what the "return" will be.

Those same people are also probably the ones who think that $2 million dollars is a such a staggering sum of money that it would allow someone to live their current "baller" lifestyle indefinitely...

So, just wanted to provide a public service announcement...

ML4L

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Once I hit the 1.5/2m after taxes range, which will hopefully be in the next 18 months since I'm going to try and play a ton of hours, I feel like I can basically live off of the interest

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on the specifics, you do realize how small your annual income is probably going to be, right?

Assuming that you mean interest in the "money market account" sense, your real return is probably going to be about 2% per year, or $40,000.

ML4L

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If he owns his house outright and can make 3% instead, he's doing just fine if he doesn't breed. No house payment plus no kids plus no drugs = no money problems.

Plus life will always bring opportunity. You don't have to solve the whole problem before age 23. Just 3K / month in poker winnings would make life easy.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

I think 2% is a bit pessimistic too. 3 should certainly be doable in the foreseeable future imo - that makes it $60k/year, or if he spends a bit of it more like $80K perhaps (rough guess).

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

What Orlando cardrooms? If you're talking about the shady underground cash games, I've been through that scene - beware.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm an 18 year old college drop out. I'll be doing some business which honestly I really cannot go into, but I definitely know what I'm doing. That, along with becoming a live pro at the card clubs here in Orlando will be my new form of income which should yield me $250k+/year

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't FL have some weird maximum bet for live poker? How do they circumvent this for NL?

Just noticed, you said "card clubs" and not casinos. But out of curiosity, do you know the answer to the above question?

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

I'm still attending college, or i guess u could say i just started attending college. Despite making mad monies playing poker, I have never really thought of poker as something that I would live off of for the rest of my life. I have always approached poker as something to fund future business ventures. Currently i am super interested in real estate investing and am trying to learn everything I can about it. Since I just turned 18 and have a bit of capital saved up I figure no better time to get my start. I dont really see myself being able to finish college so hopefully when I drop out it wont be to only play poker.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Once I hit the 1.5/2m after taxes range, which will hopefully be in the next 18 months since I'm going to try and play a ton of hours, I feel like I can basically live off of the interest

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on the specifics, you do realize how small your annual income is probably going to be, right?

Assuming that you mean interest in the "money market account" sense, your real return is probably going to be about 2% per year, or $40,000.

ML4L

[/ QUOTE ]

If he owns his house outright and can make 3% instead, he's doing just fine if he doesn't breed. No house payment plus no kids plus no drugs = no money problems.

Plus life will always bring opportunity. You don't have to solve the whole problem before age 23. Just 3K / month in poker winnings would make life easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. See also my reply to KKF. Just trying to dispel the notion that $2 mil at age 20 is enough to live a lavish life and/or raise a family very comfortably without ever having to work again.

Maybe everyone already know that, and I'm not giving enough credit to readers of this thread. But, dammit, my economics degree doesn't qualify me to do anything in the real world; I feel like it should at least allow me to talk down to people on an internet forum...

Mike

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

My comment to you is that you had better make sure that you have your I's dotted and your T's crossed in regards to laundering your money. I would be curious to see how you are able to w/d draw the amount of money that you speak of with the GOV. taking it for illegal gambling activity. I am sure that you thought of this but the best way that I have found is to set up an off shore acct and then purchase stocks etc through a DUMMY corporation. Anyway just a piece of advice.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm an 18 year old college drop out. I'll be doing some business which honestly I really cannot go into, but I definitely know what I'm doing. That, along with becoming a live pro at the card clubs here in Orlando will be my new form of income which should yield me $250k+/year

[/ QUOTE ]

KKF,
I'm talking about the combination of the business I'm getting into as well as playing live.
Underground cardrooms?

And can you be 18 years old and "know what you are doing in running a business". Did you learn from your parents?

Regardless, like Slow mentioned, unless you are in a niche market, you are going to have tons of competition.

If you just look at businesses being sold in a newspaper, you will see advertisements that will have ranges such as $400K to own, $50K in yearly revenues. Not exactly glamorous.

Also, $250K+/yr playing live poker is a bit ambitious since you get 30 hands/hour. I have no idea what live pros make in Vegas??

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm an 18 year old college drop out. I'll be doing some business which honestly I really cannot go into, but I definitely know what I'm doing. That, along with becoming a live pro at the card clubs here in Orlando will be my new form of income which should yield me $250k+/year

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't FL have some weird maximum bet for live poker? How do they circumvent this for NL?

Just noticed, you said "card clubs" and not casinos. But out of curiosity, do you know the answer to the above question?

[/ QUOTE ]

FL has a max $2 bet in their card clubs. Also there is legislation that Jeb Bush is trying to pass that will make tourneyment illegal in the state of FL. The reasoning is that even with say a $50 tourney. Concievable when you move all in you are risking your original buy in of $50 which according to FL law is a violation of the gambling code. If I were the original poster I would think long and hard since most local and state authorities will begin to pressure illegal card clubs and soon most will be shut down. But since your only 18 I doubt that you have given any real significant thought as to what all the FL legislation means to you and you "PIPE" dream of playing professional poker once all of the internet goes away. Think you will find that you will be a fish amounst many sharks when that time comes. Not to say that you wont be able to just the shear numbers of people who are going to make that transition from internet to live with creat a feeding freenzy. Live is a tough business now can not imagine how tough it will be when the flood of internet players make their way to the casino tables. DOG EAT DOG for sure.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm an 18 year old college drop out. I'll be doing some business which honestly I really cannot go into, but I definitely know what I'm doing. That, along with becoming a live pro at the card clubs here in Orlando will be my new form of income which should yield me $250k+/year

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't FL have some weird maximum bet for live poker? How do they circumvent this for NL?

Just noticed, you said "card clubs" and not casinos. But out of curiosity, do you know the answer to the above question?

[/ QUOTE ]

FL has a max $2 bet in their card clubs. Also there is legislation that Jeb Bush is trying to pass that will make tourneyment illegal in the state of FL. The reasoning is that even with say a $50 tourney. Concievable when you move all in you are risking your original buy in of $50 which according to FL law is a violation of the gambling code. If I were the original poster I would think long and hard since most local and state authorities will begin to pressure illegal card clubs and soon most will be shut down. But since your only 18 I doubt that you have given any real significant thought as to what all the FL legislation means to you and you "PIPE" dream of playing professional poker once all of the internet goes away. Think you will find that you will be a fish amounst many sharks when that time comes. Not to say that you wont be able to just the shear numbers of people who are going to make that transition from internet to live with creat a feeding freenzy. Live is a tough business now can not imagine how tough it will be when the flood of internet players make their way to the casino tables. DOG EAT DOG for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

you must not know of me...and are clearly uneducated about my situation.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

man i dunno about you guys but i love college

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm an 18 year old college drop out. I'll be doing some business which honestly I really cannot go into, but I definitely know what I'm doing. That, along with becoming a live pro at the card clubs here in Orlando will be my new form of income which should yield me $250k+/year

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't FL have some weird maximum bet for live poker? How do they circumvent this for NL?

Just noticed, you said "card clubs" and not casinos. But out of curiosity, do you know the answer to the above question?

[/ QUOTE ]

FL has a max $2 bet in their card clubs. Also there is legislation that Jeb Bush is trying to pass that will make tourneyment illegal in the state of FL. The reasoning is that even with say a $50 tourney. Concievable when you move all in you are risking your original buy in of $50 which according to FL law is a violation of the gambling code. If I were the original poster I would think long and hard since most local and state authorities will begin to pressure illegal card clubs and soon most will be shut down. But since your only 18 I doubt that you have given any real significant thought as to what all the FL legislation means to you and you "PIPE" dream of playing professional poker once all of the internet goes away. Think you will find that you will be a fish amounst many sharks when that time comes. Not to say that you wont be able to just the shear numbers of people who are going to make that transition from internet to live with creat a feeding freenzy. Live is a tough business now can not imagine how tough it will be when the flood of internet players make their way to the casino tables. DOG EAT DOG for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

you must not know of me...and are clearly uneducated about my situation.

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Your absolutely right I have no idea who you are but I have made a living playing HSNL in underground card rooms in both FL and PA and trust me I have seen many of good internet players walk through the door thinking that they are the SHI& b/c they play hundreds of thousands of hands per year online only to leave with their tail between their legs. Not saying that it cant be done but its a completely different ball game then online and most onliners have significant trouble adjusting their style to these types of games. I wish you all the best but man your young, chances are good you cant play poker forever find a plan B is all I'm saying.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

For all of you thinking you'll get 8-10% compound growth for years to come, you have no idea what you're talking about. That may have happened in the past, but there is no way you can apply this to the future. Same with real estate. Just trying to burst some people's naive bubbles on these matters. It's difficult to predict the future based on the past...

For some really basic perspectives, check out...

"Fooled by Randomness" by Nasim Taleb
"Irrational Exuberance" by Robert J. Shiller
"A Random Walk Down Wall-Street" by Burton G. Malkiel
"A Non-Random Walk Down Wall-Street" if you don't mind more academic centered papers.
Also look for some books on Value investing...

I'm sure I'm missing a ton of the books I've read in the last 5 years on this subject matter...

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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man i dunno about you guys but i love college

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your classes or the atmosphere?

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

KKF,

if you do make the 2 mil after tax i think you should really consider going to college, or starting a business, or pursuing some passion. Long life ahead of you, and you are clearly smar, so you'll get bored if you just stay in Thailand leading 'the life'.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

I do have a plan B...business as well as live pro...please read first.

And yeah, like I said, you have no idea about my situation or the situation of HSNL in Vegas or AC right now. I have played the best players in the world HU in NLHE, LHE, and Omaha, this includes Mahatma, GP, durrr, strassa, sbrugby, BLd, Phil Ivey, Danny Alai, and also sat with multiple other big name pros, both live and online. In fact, I don't think there's any notable HSNL'er on any site except PokerRoom, Crypto, or Prima, that I HAVEN't played with. I am not concerned in the least bit about beating John John with the baseball hat. I have heard a lot of stuff recently about the live HSNL games. I always have, and always will have a back up plan.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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man i dunno about you guys but i love college

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your classes or the atmosphere?

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both. i recently changed my major to something from what i thought was good for my future, to something i actually enjoy learning about.

and personally i think its a great place to meet friends and girls in general.

of course everyones experience will be wildly different.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

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For all of you thinking you'll get 8-10% compound growth for years to come, you have no idea what you're talking about. That may have happened in the past, but there is no way you can apply this to the future.

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Thank you for enlightenting us that we cannot read into the future. As for growth, you will THEORICALLY get 8-10% based from results of the past 30 years (S&P 500, Total Stock Market etc). The increase in money isn't guaranteed, or else it would be called a savings account, not an index fund.

A similar analogy would be, I am beating the game at my limit for 3bb/100 after 500k hands. Theorically, I would continue making 3bb/100 at this limit (which could be lower since my opponents improve but so do I). Now can you tell me if I can expect such winrate in the future or this is result from the past and I cannot apply this for the future?

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

ownage

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

can someone give an example of a kind of business you might open. thanks.

Re: all you college drop outs...
 

[ QUOTE ]
can someone give an example of a kind of business you might open. thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

a brothel