Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

I witnessed this interesting hand when on the bubble of the monster monthly. There were 1031 players remaining, top 1000 get a seat valued at around $2000-$4000. The actual cash payout for the monthly is very top heavy (1st place $125,000, 10th place $2,000, 1000th place $400).

Player A is sb and has around 45K, blinds are 3-6K, the big blind covers. Folded to Player A who has KK. What do you recommend and how close is it. (Easy Push, Close Push, Close Fold, Easy Fold)

Thanks.

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

I kinda suck, but this smells like the easiest push ever?

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

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this smells like the easiest fold ever?

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Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

very easy push

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

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very easy push

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lol sataments

I guess I need to explain, so, ok: you are guaranteed something like 8'th or 9'th place money if you pass up...let's say 9K chips in EV with 102x people left. How much do you think those 9K chips are worth once ITM? How much do you think 45K chips are worth once ITM?

Results
 

sb pushed, bb thought for some time and even though he barely had the sb covered decided to call with QQ. Queen on the flop sent the sb packing just out of the money.

You guys saying easy push do realize that 10th place and 1000th place essentially pay the same amount, and you are going to need to accumulate a TON of chips to make the final table anyway. I open folded AA a few hands earlier since it was obvious I could fold to the bubble.

Seems like satellites are the type of tournament where otherwise great players often make HUGE mistakes. It feels weird to say it, but IMO that KK push was a huge error.

Re: Results
 

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sb pushed, bb thought for some time and even though he barely had the sb covered decided to call with QQ. Queen on the flop sent the sb packing just out of the money.

You guys saying easy push do realize that 10th place and 1000th place essentially pay the same amount, and you are going to need to accumulate a TON of chips to make the final table anyway. I open folded AA a few hands earlier since it was obvious I could fold to the bubble.

Seems like satellites are the type of tournament where otherwise great players often make HUGE mistakes. It feels weird to say it, but IMO that KK push was a huge error.

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The Huge error was open folding the Aces, not pushing these kings. You were WAY ahead and got outdrawn, that is not a mistake. You aren't even guaranteed to fold ITM, people are going to play tighter and tighter as it gets closer to the bubble. Results oriented....?

Re: Results
 

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The Huge error was open folding the Aces, not pushing these kings. You were WAY ahead and got outdrawn, that is not a mistake. You aren't even guaranteed to fold ITM, people are going to play tighter and tighter as it gets closer to the bubble. Results oriented....?

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read post above his pls

Re: Results
 

I didn't push the kings, a guy at my table did, and although he got unlucky, he also made a huge mistake as he COULD easily fold into the top 1000.

With regards to open folding aces, I was keeping a close eye on how fast players were dropping and I correctly open folded aces because I knew with 100% certainty that I would make the top 1000 if I folded everything. I also was fairly certain that some of the players who covered me had calling ranges which included other big pairs besides aces. This was not a time to take any risks, even if I would be going in as an 80-20 fave.

If there were any chance my stack was not going to carry me through the bubble, then pushing some hands would have been correct. This was not the case though.

Re: Results
 

In satellite type tourney in which 10 - 1000th pretty much get same prize and you are 100% sure that you can fold into money, then it makes very clear sense folding AA. Allot of players just cant seem to see this logic.


Sometimes it just doesnt make sense to gamble. Why take any odds 80/20 even 90/10 when your odds if you fold in bubble are 100/100.

Re: Results
 

I need to play more sats. This is a no brainer fold.

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

One more question...how do you figure seat is worth 2000-4000.. Please elaborate on Math you used for this calculation. Forexample, How many players max are they letting into Final, and what is projected Prize Pool..can figure this out by looking at how long they ran promotion for to-date, and how much from seed money the final grew to.

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

8000 players in Grand Finale, $30-$40 million prize pool based on how it's currently progressing.

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

Because there's still 1031 players left and only 31 have to go out, how short do you need to be to play a hand at all?

Seems like you could just stall your way to the seat . . . (they weren't playing hand for hand were they???). Given the size of the field, there's gotta be 31 other idiots who don't get this stuff out there and are short stacked . . . .

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

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Because there's still 1031 players left and only 31 have to go out, how short do you need to be to play a hand at all?

Seems like you could just stall your way to the seat . . . (they weren't playing hand for hand were they???). Given the size of the field, there's gotta be 31 other idiots who don't get this stuff out there and are short stacked . . . .

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You have to be almost down to less then 1.5 bb's to bother playing a hand at that point. They were dropping at a rate of about 1 player every 10-20 seconds. Many of these players who got knocked out weren't short stacks either, I am sure there were other big pair vs. big pair confrontations or huge stack stealing blinds (cause they could and should) vs medium stack with big pair confrontations.

This weekly and monthly monster qualifiers are not to be played as regular tournaments. They require a special strategy.

The weekly is a Foldament where you can literally fold your way in to the monthly if you steal a few blinds early on.

The monthly is a Stallament where you play poker for a while, build a stack and then keep an eye on the rate that people are dropping out while you stall and fold your way into the Grand Finale.

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

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8000 players in Grand Finale, $30-$40 million prize pool based on how it's currently progressing.

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Are they maxing it at 8000 players ???

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

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8000 players in Grand Finale, $30-$40 million prize pool based on how it's currently progressing.

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Are they maxing it at 8000 players ???

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8 monthly's - 1000 players from each

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

I played in the weekly and I think you have to accumulate more than "a few blinds" to being able to fold into the monthly.

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

the push means the sb is shot and the call means the bb is shot. They both had enough to get to the money and with that structure that's all that counts.

I had a similar situation. I had about 17k with blinds 3-6k in CO-1. I had QQ and decided to push because I didn't think I could make it to the money. I think there was 100 to go. I really wanted to fold even know I doubt I was getting called. But if I did I was in big trouble.

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

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I played in the weekly and I think you have to accumulate more than "a few blinds" to being able to fold into the monthly.

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These few blinds need to be accumulated when they means something.. ie. 100-200 or bigger. You also can pick spots where u get folded to on teh button and have 2 smaller stacks in the blinds. They need to fold to your agression unless they pick up BIG hands. Play smart and fold all kinds of hands early and you will get there. A case can also be made for seeing lots of flops early in hopes of doubling up with some kind of flopped nuts. Then you can def go to sleep.

Re: Results
 

OP,

I think you did a poor job explaining the situation which is why you're getting some of the responses you are.

Also I'd like to know where I am at with my $45k, out of 1,031 remaining players am I in the top 900? I think I'd have to be in the top 800 to consider passing this push up. with blinds at $3k/$6k that's an M of less than 5, I don't know that it's quite that easy to say we fold ITM, I'm not doubting the possibility you were in the tournament you're saying he could have easily, so I'll take your word for it. From the information you gave however, it looks like a push I have to make. I don't want to go 3 more orbits folding and be down to $18k with 1,009 players remaining.

Re: Results
 

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OP,

I think you did a poor job explaining the situation which is why you're getting some of the responses you are.

Also I'd like to know where I am at with my $45k, out of 1,031 remaining players am I in the top 900? I think I'd have to be in the top 800 to consider passing this push up. with blinds at $3k/$6k that's an M of less than 5, I don't know that it's quite that easy to say we fold ITM, I'm not doubting the possibility you were in the tournament you're saying he could have easily, so I'll take your word for it. From the information you gave however, it looks like a push I have to make. I don't want to go 3 more orbits folding and be down to $18k with 1,009 players remaining.

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Nope, with 31 players left we only have to wait for 3% more of the field to be eliminated. Maybe I should have stated that the average stack is only about 40K (which will now make folding pretty obvious), but regardless you should understand that 3% of the field is not a lot, so he obviously had enough to get through the bubble which is MUCH more important then anything else.

Re: Monster monthly Kings on the bubble
 

Which never will be 8000 or you need 1000 NEW winners every month. My guess it is 5k players tops

Re: Results
 

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OP,

I think you did a poor job explaining the situation which is why you're getting some of the responses you are.

Also I'd like to know where I am at with my $45k, out of 1,031 remaining players am I in the top 900? I think I'd have to be in the top 800 to consider passing this push up. with blinds at $3k/$6k that's an M of less than 5, I don't know that it's quite that easy to say we fold ITM, I'm not doubting the possibility you were in the tournament you're saying he could have easily, so I'll take your word for it. From the information you gave however, it looks like a push I have to make. I don't want to go 3 more orbits folding and be down to $18k with 1,009 players remaining.

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FWIW, I played in this and when there were 1031 players left I was down to about 2,500 chips. Fortunately for me, I was in late position and my table was stalling like crazy, and the bubble burst 2 or 3 hands before the blinds got back around to me.