MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

[ QUOTE ]
POTW tOSU -6 @ Iowa

3-1 POTW ytd

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the best bet I've seen in a few years. I'm not really into this type of thing, but this would be a POTY if I ever gave such a designation.

I think this is a 34-10 or such game.

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Glad to see you agree on Ohio State. I put it at 31-10 when I was handicapping earlier today.

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

I'll give credit to BobJoeJim for pointing this one out

Thursday night
TCU -5 v BYU

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Vandy -34 Temple. I like this play.

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

I disagree with the LSU/State under pick. I think LSU will try to run up the score and State has finally become a little effective with their offense.

I agree with Alabama/Florida under and South Carolina/Auburn under. Auburn -14, I'll have to check the status of Auburn's injuries.

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Washington/Arizona u43

POTW
 

As for the POTW, I'm going to take it with you, I'm just hoping you aren't too influenced by the fact that Iowa wasn't able to cover against Illinois.

Re: POTW
 

don't worry...I'm upset with Iowa for not covering verse Syracuse more [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

actually, I'll have a very good, very long write-up on this. I was prepared to justify tOSU at -16.5 again. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Baylor/Kansas St u42

ND/Purdue total?!?
 

64 seem a little high to anyone else besides me?

Re: ND/Purdue total?!?
 

nope
49-28 ND last year
Purdue's pass defense is just as bad as last year
Purdue is back to air tiller on offense
I'm leaning over, but staying away as my youth as a Purdue fan has taken my objectivity away in some instances.


Purdue gave up 35 to Indiana State, 31 to Miami (OH), 28 to Ball State, 21 to Minny...yikes!

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

yes....I'm a road fav taking square!

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

I have a middling question:

I have Auburn -12.5 -109 (Pinny @ 426pm), and can now get South Carolina +14 +109 (Pinny now)... hence putting me at a nice middle and rooting for 14. Should I do it?

I don't know Wong's numbers for NCAA, and I'm actually thinking of letting it ride, as being on the 'right' side of a 14.5 game, but at 12.5, seems to be worth more than the probability of it hitting 14.

Thoughts?

Offline
 

Anyone know why pinny took those games off?

Pick
 

Take LSU -30.5 vs. Miss. St.

Why no picks in second phase?
 

Hey MyTurn... just curious... why'd you have so many picks in the first phase of Pinny's early rollout when they listed a large chunk of the games (around 430), but none in their second phase (around 630) when they listed all of the other games on the board?

Re: Why no picks in second phase?
 

Mainly, because I'm a major conference guy (Big10 especially) and the early rollout was major conference teams for the most part.

While I have a ranking spreadsheet system, etc, I choose to bet only games I know where I can analyze the match-ups at the micro level in addition to macro-level generalities. For example, I know Drew Tate has not thrown a ball down the field the last two games (since his oblique strain that kept him out verse Syracuse) because I've seen every play of Iowa this year. I don't know as much about Utah State, or whoever. The early rollout was most of the teams from the BCS guaranteed conferences. Those are the teams I know best. That is why I go out of my way to compliment the posters here who specialize in the Mountain West, WAC, etc that give me tips. They fill a void in my intelligence. I know the Big10 and SEC above all. I have a pretty good grasp on the BigXII, Pac10, and ACC as well.

Re: Why no picks in second phase?
 

Thanks MyTurn. I had (erroneously) thought that you were primarily a numbers/computer-based systems guy, hence my confusion.

I've seen those last two Iowa games, too... and Tate has looked just horrible to me. Throwing alot of 'touch' passes, with no touch (they look like moonshots). I just don't believe AT ALL that he can mount much of a passing attack against tOSU, though they haven't looked overly crisp the last two weeks, either. But I just can't see how Iowa scores more than 10-13 points, the way their offense looked vs Iowa St or Illinois.

Re: Why no picks in second phase?
 

Alabama/Florida Under 38.5 +113 currently available on Pinny.

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

Looking forward to your insight on this pick, I'm also a huge cfb fan, noob to betting it though. No worries about OSU letdown, road game at Iowa, PSU's defense showing blueprint for slowing down OSU offense that Iowa will pick up on? I agree with pick btw, curious what makes it POY-worthy. Again, looking forward to your insight, it's always good stuff.

Re: MyTurn\'s week 5 CFB (9/28-9/30)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mich St -24.5 v Illinois :Illini pics 2-1 ytd

[/ QUOTE ]
Can I get a write-up of this going beyond "Illinois is teh suxxor, fade fade fade," please? I agree this is a good bet if MSU from the first half shows up, but MSU from the second half (talking ND game, of course) has very little chance of covering this, I think. Personally, if not for you making this pick, I'd be leaning heavilly toward Illinois here, especially now that I could get +26.5. It just seems like a lot of points for a team to lay when they're so primed for a letdown game, and have their undefeated, sixth ranked, in-state rival in a week. Convince me Michigan State will be focused enough that I shouldn't throw my money away betting ON (gasp!) the Illini. Ok thx bye.

Sparty -24.5 v Illinois
 

Mich St -24.5 v Illinois

obviously, MSU is cash money. Illinois is teh suxxor, fade fade fade.



j/k


Last year, Sparty marched into Champaign and beat Illinois 61-14 on 48 carries for 376 yards and 26 of 34 passing for 329 yards with no turnovers.
Big deal, Illinois sucked last year, right? Well, they hadn't sucked before the MSU game.
Illinois fans and team were actually feeling pretty good about themselves. They had played 3 games previously. Week 1 was an amazing come from behind 33-30 victory verse Rutgers. Week 2 was an easy 40-19 win over San Jose State. Week 3 was Illinois' first loss, 35-20 at Cal, in a game where Illinois was leading at the half and where the final score didn't show how close the game really was.
Why did I go through all that? To show just how bad last year's Spartan team completely decimated a team that was feeling relatively good about itself in Champaign. The match-ups are just dreadful for the Illini. The thing about MSU is that their offense can and will score, score, score. It was 38-10 by halftime last year.

Unlike the boring, grind it out Hawkeye offense that didn't test the Illini deep once, MSU will go after them early and often. Illinois returns their whole secondary from last season, but freshman Vontae Davis replaced one of the startes at CB. CBs Davis and Ball have absolutely no field awareness. It's kind of funny to count the number of times they get completely turned around. I don't mean to be harsh, but I cannot count the number of times an opposing WR has had no one within 10 yards of him as he catches the deep ball. This will also be the fist time that Illinois' new outside linebackers will have to line up against spread, 4 WR sets by a BCS conference team. Don't expect them to keep up.

Then comes the running game. Well, it looks like Illinois, despite the run defense verse Iowa, is still pretty awful verse the run. After all, they allowed lowly Syracuse to smash them in the face and average over 4ypc. MSU's run attack looks very good. They replaced 3 OL from last year with very little protection or run block issues. The o-line averages well over 300 and will just flatten the Illini defense. I feel sorry for Illini DE Derek Walker as he, yet again, will be a lone soldier out there.

MSU put up gargantuan numbers on Pitt and ND. The Illini defense is nowhere near Pitt or ND. This is 40 points+ from Sparty, even with them pulling the foot off the accelerator.

NOw, we get to the other side of the ball where MSU hasn't looked that good. Hey, Illinois did put up 21 verse Syracuse and a score against Iowa. It's not even as good as it appears. Rutgers, in beating Illinois 33-0, did not allow the Illini to cross midfield once with the ball! That has to be some sort of record for futility. Against Syracuse, the game was 31-7 until Illinois got a few garbage scores against prevent defenses. Against Iowa, Juice started and, again, was able to get a garbage score once the game was 24-0. Frankly, I don't imagine Illinois getting more than one score with the game's outcome in question. Of course, I expect them to get another garbage TD that will add to the Juice highlight reel. The Illini o-line has been awful. Illinois actually has a pretty decent stable at RB, but they have achieved very little this year. Illinois is averaging just over 110 ypg verse 1A opponents on less than 3 ypc. The Illini QB's have been sacked 12 times in the 3 games verse 1A opponents. Illinois has been making multiple turnovers per game, which will likely continue with a Freshman QB and young receivers who aren't on the same page (Though Zook was smart enough to put the senior qb back in for one set of downs last week where he threw a pick on the second play---that was a sarcastic 'smart enough'). OK, so MSU's defense is no bread winner either, but they were able to hold Illinois to 2 scores and 271 yards last year. Where does MSU fall in the spectrum of Iowa, Rutgers, and Syracuse D? I suspect they aren't the worst of the lot. Expect the Illini to get 14 or so this game as well.

Special teams will continue to be disasterous for the Illini. They missed 2 FGs last week from between 40-45 (one with and one against the wind). For those counting, it's easy, Illinois has made 0 FGs so far this year. In addition, the Zooker insists on using WR DaJuan Warren (who's actually a very capable playmaker) as a punter. Illinois was still 0-0 with Iowa late into the 2nd quarter until Zook sent the WR out there for his 17 yard punt.

Basically, MSU can run and pass for whatever yardage they feel like. MSU has a vertically attacking offense (unlike Syracuse and Iowa). They get 40+. Illinois gets 2 scores (1 in garbage time). 24.5 seems too small. About 30 seems right to me.

Illinois is the suxxor, fade fade fade.

2-1 on Illini picks ytd

Re: Sparty -24.5 v Illinois
 

Thanks MyTurn, I still don't feel good about following with MSU, and will probably lay off, but you've convinced me not to blow my money with a bet on Illinois. Good breakdown.

tOSU -6 @ Iowa
 

[ QUOTE ]
POTW tOSU -6 @ Iowa

3-1 POTW ytd

[/ QUOTE ]

The most overrated team in the country runs into reality this week.

Seriously, I'm trying to understand how this line is so low. I cannot believe it isn't 2 TDs or more. I've investigated and found no injury rumors on the Buckeye side.

Anyway, here is my take:
just to refresh everyone what happened when these two teams met last year in Columbus:
Ohio State 31 Iowa 6
Ohio St had 60 carries for 314 yards and were 14 of 21 for 216 yards. Iowa had 18 carries for negative 9 yards! Iowa was 22 out of 39 for 146 yards and 1 pick. Iowa was +1 on the turnovers.

2 'Secrets' to this game that should be obvious. First, and most importantly, Iowa is much, much worse this season. On offense, Iowa doesn't have any straight forward rushing attack. Iowa was the first Illinois D1A opponent in 12 games to not average over 4 ypc. Even in Iowa's most impressive game, the 27-17 win verse Iowa St in Kinnick, Iowa's running success came to the outside and not up the middle. When Tate was out verse Syracuse, Iowa couldn't just roll over an inferior Syracuse team.

When it comes to passing the ball, the Hawkeyes also have some issues. There is absolutely no big play potential here. The WRs are not burning anyone deep. Let's face it, if you cannot burn Illinois, you cannot burn anyone. In addition, Drew Tate has not thrown one pass more than 25 yards downfield since his injury earlier in the year....Yikes! Iowa has chipped away with 5-12 yard passes and runs to the outside. Neither of those methods seems to be particularly effective verse tOSU.

Against the Buckeyes, Iowa will not be able to run at all. It seems unnecessary to cover this, but secret #2 is that this year's Buckeye D is top 5 in the nation even with 9 new starters. Let's look at some Buckeye D stats
Opponent-PA:Yards Rushing-Carries:Pass Comp-Pass Att-Pass Yards-INT
NIU-12:155-33:16-30-169-1
Texas-7:186-31:19-32-154-1
Cincy-7:56-22:20-25-216-3
Penn St-6:149-39:16-25-87-3

cliff notes: tOSU is giving up 8 points, 167 pass yards, and 115 rush yards per game while only allowing 3 TDs and creating turnovers and TDs. The Iowa team will not be able to run up the middle here, which is the one chink that has been seen in the Buckeye D. tOSU just has too much speed for Iowa to beat them running to the outside, especially so since tOSU's secondary can come up and aggressively play the run since the threat of the Hawkeyes throwing over the top is minimal. The lack of a deep threat will also encourage Buckeyes to jump the shorter routes that Iowa has lived on so far this year. It will also be interesting to see how the Iowa offense responds to pressure in their own backfield, which is something they haven't faced much of this year. The Iowa offense verse Buckeye defense is a complete mismatch...10+ points would be a victory for the Hawkeyes IMO.

When trying to figure out why the line was so low, one of the few things I could pinpoint was the lack of offense by tOSU verse Penn St last year. I attribute that more to the monsoon than anything else. In the other 3 games, the Buckeyes rolled. That includes a great performance at Texas, whose D has looked pretty good in other games (it's made me $$$ with the Rice under total and Iowa St under total [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

Iowa's D has continued its bend-don't-break vanilla scheme with success this year. The problem is they don't have the athletes to keep up with the talent on the Buckeyes side. Iowas returns much the same unit that the Buckeyes torched last year, except that the Hawkeyes lost the heart (Greenway and Hodge at LB) and the corners. This year's replacements are not as good and the unit is down as a result. For one, expect CB Shada to get beat over and over again. He made four pass interferences just this past week against the overwhelming talented WRs that Illinois throws out there. Iowa continues to not really force turnovers. Only against lowly Illinois did it turn their way.
All in all, expect 30+ from the Bucks

OK, so Kinnick is a tough place to play. Dankhank pointed out to me that Iowa is 27-6-1 ATS in their last 34 at home IIRC. Guess there is a systematic bias that underrates Kinnick. Kinnick has just been renovated and is supposedly right up there with Penn St as the second most intimidating road game in the Big10. Well, tOSU is used to this and used to the big stage. I find it hard to believe that the renovated Kinnick is any tougher than the renovated stadium down in Austin that the Buckeyes visited just 3 weeks past.

This game will be ugly...I see 34-10. Iowa gets exposed in front of the nation.

Michigan -7 @ Minny
 

[ QUOTE ]
Michigan -7 @ Minny

[/ QUOTE ]

No danger of a letdown from the Wolverines here considering the epic way they lost to the Gophers last year in the Big House.

Michigan so far:
at, Sep 2 Vanderbilt W 27-7 --
Sat, Sep 9 Central Michigan W 41-17 --
Sat, Sep 16 at (2) Notre Dame W 47-21 --
Sat, Sep 23 Wisconsin W 27-13 --

Minny so far:
Thu, Aug 31 at Kent State W 44-0
Sat, Sep 9 at (22) California L 17-42
Sat, Sep 16 Temple W 62-0
Sat, Sep 23 at Purdue L 21-27

Ok, Minny rolled over the two cream puffs, but got whipped by Cal and Purdue handled them better than the score would suggest. Minny's strength remains in its running attack; the Gophers are averaging 227 yards rushing per game (compared to only 195 passing).

After the last game verse Wisconsin, Michigan's D has proven itself as capable of stopping the run. Michigan's D is allowing 199 yards passing and 19 yards rushing per game! The new defensive coordinator and players are working to their max so far. Even the Badgers abadoned the idea of running last week. Michigan has held Wisconsin, Vandy, and Notre Dame to less than 2 ypc! It doesn't look good for the Gophers on offense.

On the other side, the Michigan offense is healthy and rolling. Manningham has stepped up as the big time receiver. Breaston is a great compliment. Hart and Grady are pounding the lines for over 4ypc. Chad Henne has been adequete, but still focuses too much on one receiver at a time.

the only potential misstep here IMO is the fact that Minny is one of the most odd places to play. OF all the places I've seen a game at, the Metrodome is the most uncollege-like atmosphere of any major school. IT does sometimes bother the players, but I don't think it will enough for Michigan to not win by double digits.

Penn St -15 v Northwestern
 

[ QUOTE ]

Penn St -15 v Northwestern


[/ QUOTE ]

NW is the suxorr....fade fade fade

Honestly, this team cannot pass the ball. Against Miami (Oh)...nothing. Against New Hampshire....nothing. Against Eastern Michigan... nothing. Against Nevada...nothing.

Look at those four opponents. Not one of them should stop a major conference foe from airing the ball out. All have been torched a few times during the season, yet the Mildcats have been incapable of passing. NW's qb Kafka has 1 TD and 5 Picks and a qb rating under 100 (that's low in college). NW can run the ball, but a team with as much talent as Penn St can crush one dimensional opponents. Penn St's rush D is holding opponents to 82 ypg and it seems more susceptible to the air attack. One has to think that NW will struggle like crazy to score in Happy Valley.

On the other end, NW's defense isn't that good. Expect King, Williams, and Hunt to go off in front of the 100k home fans. I think 31-10 seems right on here.

USC/Washington St u54
 

[ QUOTE ]

USC/Washington St u54


[/ QUOTE ]

My fingers are crossed that Wazzu can come up with a stop here and there. USC's defense is primed to just dominate the whole year. USC is allowing 157 pass yards and 61 rushing yards per game after facing Arkansas, Nebraska, and Arizona! They will shut down Wazzu just like Auburn held the Cougs to 14 and Bears held them to 17. Auburn put up 40 on the Cougs, who have held down the next 3 very inferior opponents. This might be the game USC's offense goes off. I'm just hoping it isn't for 40+.

Alabama/Florida u39
 

[ QUOTE ]

Alabama/Florida u39


[/ QUOTE ]

BoxScore from last year's huge bama 31-3 win

neither team will be able to run in this game. Florida's rush D is monstrous. Alabama's rush D is above average, but the Florida O doesn't run block very good. Florida will have to resort to bringing in Tebow to get the rush going. The key is how much Alabama can pressure Leak. If they can make him move his feet, Florida will have trouble scoring enough to push this over. It's a given that Bama won't score enough to push it over.

Miss St/LSU u40.5
 

[ QUOTE ]

Mississippi St/LSU u40.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Miss St this year
Other than the Tulane game, Miss St hasn't been able to put up anything points-wise and will be completely dominated again

LSU so far this year

the only question is will LSU score 40 again? I think MSU's defense, despite the Tulane debacle, is decent. If their defensive line can remain strong enough to get a few stops, the Bulldogs will keep it an under.

Re: Miss St/LSU u40.5
 

oh yeah, in case anyone hasn't noticed, I'm riding SEC unders until they buck me

Re: tOSU -6 @ Iowa
 

The one factor I think you are overlooking in the OSU-Iowa game is weather.

OSU can be slowed down by bad weather, as was shown by the Penn State game. Right now, the forecast is high of 60 with a few showers. This might be why the line is lower than you expected. However, I expect OSU to cover for the 5th straight week this year.

Re: tOSU -6 @ Iowa
 

Troy you are god!!

Re: tOSU -6 @ Iowa
 

[ QUOTE ]
The one factor I think you are overlooking in the OSU-Iowa game is weather.

OSU can be slowed down by bad weather, as was shown by the Penn State game. Right now, the forecast is high of 60 with a few showers. This might be why the line is lower than you expected. However, I expect OSU to cover for the 5th straight week this year.

[/ QUOTE ]

nope...I looked at the weather

few isolated showers...day before and day after are dry

no big, day long thunderstorms expected