looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

thoughts on Atlanta coming into NO? The line tonight is starting at -3 for atlanta at +103. Although they are a road favorite I really like Atlanta in this game. While both teams are 2-0 and I am impressed with drew brees I am not impressed with the defense of NO. Atlanta is running the ball better than anybody and the saints are not playing great defense as of yet. Atlanta's D however has shut down both offenses of it's opponents. The best way to win on the road is with a strong running game, I can't see how New Orleans can match up against the Falcons in week 3. Any thoughts on this matchup appreciated.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

The only thing I could think of is NO's emotional return to the Superdome and the whole "do this for the people of New Orleans" mentality. However, I still don't think it will be enough for them to beat ATL, but stranger things have happened.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Don't think I like this game. The Saints have been a bad home team for a few years, but I feel like that's going to be the most fired up crowd in franchise history. Questioning the Saints poor competition thus far is fair; but by the same token the Panthers without Smith and the Bucs don't have much firepower.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I definitely think that NO is far from a 2-0 team, and I'll be looking for opportunities to bet against them very soon. That said, I actually don't like Atlanta that much in this game.

I think Atlanta probably comes back down to earth in the near future as well, and I can see NO winning this game outright if they have some success stopping ATL's running game.

If I had to bet this game, I probably would take ATL, but it doesn't really stand out to me as a good choice.

Disclaimer: I lost 5 figures this weekend, so WTF do I know?

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

ATl pounds two quality teams NO barely beats two teams that wont win 7 games combined............ The crowd may be fired up till Vick picks up one 3rd and long with his legs and break there spitits in half. This line is a joke. Take Atlanta now because it will be -7 by Sunday. Performity correct me if I am very wrong.

p.s. If Reggie Bush thinks NFL players are fast wait until he tries to outrun Abraham{ if he plays} and Deangelo Hall if he lines up as a wideout.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

As far as Atl coming down to earth. They are this good, they were this good two years ago and you add John Abraham and D. Hall is in his 3rd year now. You win in the NFL if you can run and stop the run. They are top 5 in the league in both when it's all said and done. There offense looks like West Virginia and that in the NFL is just insane.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

this line looks low to me as well. i have not put money on it yet as i saw neither team in action this week. would like to hear from more people first.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I bet big on the first 2 NO games, and look at my mansion account thrilled and amazed that they both cashed.

This one I may sit out. I watched both games as carefully as a semi drunken fan in a trashy bar could, and they just have some holes big enough to make this a tough game.

The offensive line and the cornerbacks have been our week spots...but the defensive line has been solid and the linebackers, surprisingly decent. And Vick isn't going to beat us with his arm anyway.

If the saints can contain Dunn (possible) and keep Vick contained in the pocket (doable) it will be very close. Atlanta proved no more than the Saints did this week, and if the line climbs up to what Morphling thinks it will, I will jump on the Saints big time again.

Either way, the crowd will be absolutely insane, and I can't imagine a better place to be Monday night then at the dome...I think I just convinced myself...Saints on the money line (drunk fan's know best)

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Atlanta right now looks like my game of the week for Week 3. But I'm not placing early, yet. But I will be watching carefully.

Per my writeup on my Atlanta pick in my picks thread, I think they're going to be undervalued some this week due to their final score of 14-3. I think the general public is high on the Saints with the firepower they displayed in Green Bay and since they probably didn't get to see the Falcons game, will think that Atlanta struggled on offense only scoring 14. in reality, the Falcons missed four field goals, two blocked and two just flat missed. Their running game was the most dominant I've seen in the NFL in a long time. Vick looked brilliant. This score should have been at least 23-3 which is much more evident of the way the game actually played out and the start to finish dominance of the Falcons. And that's without one of their best defensive players who hopefully will be back next week.

I think Atlanta is significantly undervalued here, but I think based on the early movement we may be able to contine to wait and get an even better price. There's a lot of publicity and attention around NO with Bush, the Bush drama on the wires, and of course the emotional return of the Saints to NO this week. i'm going to watch this carefully but I can almost guarantee this will be a play in my system - only question is how strong the play will end up.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I don't see how it gets better. I have it at -3 +106 which I got on Pinnacle very early this morning. I'd be shocked if it ever returns to that price.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

As others have mentioned but I'll re-emphasize I guess, Atlanta has a huge running game. They've racked up considerable yards against two good defenses (my opinion of course on the Ds) so far. Also the zone blocking scheme that Atlanta uses seems to be getting more popular in the NFL as Denver has had success with it as well. Apparently it's difficult to defense.

About the Saints vs. Packers game, the Saints had 3 turnovers early in that game as that resulted in 13 points for the Packers. The Saints totally shut down the Packers running game as the Packers best running play was a reverse to Driver for 16 yards. The Packers had 63 yards total on the ground against the Saints and remember the Packers jumped out to a 13 pt lead so they weren't forced to play "catch up" for much of the game. In week 1 the Saints defense stuffed the Browns running game as Frye was Clevelands leading rusher from his scrambles (perhaps this bodes well for Vick's skills). The Packers rushed for 103 yards at 4.5 a carry vs. the Bears in week one. The Browns rushed for only 57 yds total and 2.9 a carry vs. the Bengals. My sense is that the Saints are have at least a good defense against the run which is the Falcons strength. Also my sense is that the Saints weak spot on defense is defending the pass which is not the Falcons strength on offense. The Falcons will be up against a better offense than they saw yesterday and in week one IMO. Division road favorites are not my favorite betting opportunity as well. Just rambling here but I'm luke warm at best on this game FWIW.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

The last time ATL beat NO at the Superdome by >3 was 2001. This is a traditionally close rivalry. NO has held both opponents (although weak) to <100 yds. rushing. Vick has ~230 passing yds in 2 games and if he HAS to throw, forget it. With the reopening of SD, capable RBs (McCallister/Bush) and a solid QB in Drew Brees my money is going on NO. Although I am seriously leaning towards a middle on Pinny.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I canot detach myself emotionally from this game, so I think I will pass on wagering and just enjoy the game [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
As far as Atl coming down to earth. They are this good, they were this good two years ago and you add John Abraham and D. Hall is in his 3rd year now. You win in the NFL if you can run and stop the run. They are top 5 in the league in both when it's all said and done. There offense looks like West Virginia and that in the NFL is just insane.

[/ QUOTE ] I completely agree... don't forget about lawyer milloy either... Atlanta looks good on paper and they've proved it on the field the last two weeks

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Wrong, this one will be close. Wait till Vick is forced to pass the ball on 3rd and long. This game is always close, especially for their first home game in the dome after katrina on MNF without a QB with the last name Brooks. I can see the Saints winning this outright. Stay away from this one. And the worst part of the Saints D is the secondary not the front seven. The Saints are so much better without Brooks there.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Lawyer Milloy is finished.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
Atlanta right now looks like my game of the week for Week 3. But I'm not placing early, yet. But I will be watching carefully.

Per my writeup on my Atlanta pick in my picks thread, I think they're going to be undervalued some this week due to their final score of 14-3. I think the general public is high on the Saints with the firepower they displayed in Green Bay and since they probably didn't get to see the Falcons game, will think that Atlanta struggled on offense only scoring 14. in reality, the Falcons missed four field goals, two blocked and two just flat missed. Their running game was the most dominant I've seen in the NFL in a long time. Vick looked brilliant. This score should have been at least 23-3 which is much more evident of the way the game actually played out and the start to finish dominance of the Falcons. And that's without one of their best defensive players who hopefully will be back next week.

I think Atlanta is significantly undervalued here, but I think based on the early movement we may be able to contine to wait and get an even better price. There's a lot of publicity and attention around NO with Bush, the Bush drama on the wires, and of course the emotional return of the Saints to NO this week. i'm going to watch this carefully but I can almost guarantee this will be a play in my system - only question is how strong the play will end up.

[/ QUOTE ]

what about ATL's defensive injuries?

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how it gets better. I have it at -3 +106 which I got on Pinnacle very early this morning. I'd be shocked if it ever returns to that price.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wish i had bet last night. best i can get now is -3 -113. i wonder if this number will ever stabilize back at -105 range or if i should grab it now. maybe when mansion and matchbook put up their prices it will loosen up the ATL market a little.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I did like ATL but I stopped and thought about and the line looks really wrong, and everyone loves ATL in this game to me that means to jump all over NO. Take NO on the ML.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Yeah, looks like I was on the wrong side of this predicted line move. My bad.

At this point there's nothing to hurry on, except to wait and see what happens to the line and see what's up with ATL's injuries.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
ATl pounds two quality teams NO barely beats two teams that wont win 7 games combined............ The crowd may be fired up till Vick picks up one 3rd and long with his legs and break there spitits in half. This line is a joke. Take Atlanta now because it will be -7 by Sunday. Performity correct me if I am very wrong.

p.s. If Reggie Bush thinks NFL players are fast wait until he tries to outrun Abraham{ if he plays} and Deangelo Hall if he lines up as a wideout.

[/ QUOTE ]

since i'm a pugilist NO fan, i'll give the homer take from the other site [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

New orleans is nothing more than a mediocre team right now, but both of their games should have had greater margins of victory than actually happened. They had trouble scoring touchdowns in the redzone against cleveland (4 FG) and they spotted GB 13 points in the first quarter due to a couple of freak turnovers (brees had the ball knocked out of his hand as he went to pass and another interception that was tipped and acrobatically caught by al harris at the sideline). Despite the setbacks, the offense played superbly the rest of the game, outscoring green bay 34-14.

that said, the only way new orleans wins this game on monday night is if vick has one of his bad games (entirely possible) and the crowd remains in it the entire way.

i've watched both falcons games as well and their running game is a sight to behold. The only thing is that vick accounts for quite a decent percentage of that, so if the saints linebackers and defensive ends can contain him somewhat, the falcons running game may not be as dominant as the past two weeks.

This scenario also unfolds if the saints jump out to an early lead as I don't believe Jim Mora to be the greatest strategic coach in the NFL and definitely has the capability to start calling a decent number of passing plays and going away from their obvious strength.

On top of all of that, it is hard to overstate how big a rivalry game this is for the fans. It isn't cowboys/skins or giants/eagles, but this is the one home game the fans care about more than any other every season. I've been to several of these games in atlanta, and i think the same goes for their fans also. Add in the first game back in the dome with U2 and Green Day warming up the crowd beforehand and I think the saints have more than a legitimate shot of covering that taken with the juice you're paying to lay the points make this not a big edge, if one at all.

I don't think anyone really knows what the line should be, although the falcons are undervalued, if anything. But, the high juice on laying the points (-127 right now at Pinny) would keep me away from it, although I think there is value in betting the saints moneyline at +172.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

now that the line moved it's not as great a play to back Atlanta, I was really more on top of it at the -3 +103 (or 106 sorry I don't recall exactly) that it was going at early on sunday night after the games. Vick has accounted for plenty of rushing yards for Atlanta, but even if he doesn't rush in this game Warrick dunn has ran behind the best running game in football for 130+ yards two weeks in a row; that's plenty to control the game. The real battle is free agent Grady Jackson vs. Atlanta's offensive line, and I don't think NO can win it. As for Brees, Deangelo hall anybody? Talk about a corner shutting some people down, he takes aways some significant options for brees. I'm still really confident in Atlanta at a decent price if it's available.

I also forgot to mention allen rossum, he's been providing Atlanta with some good field position as he's #9 and #5 on kickoff and punt returns in the league. That's another important factor in a tight battle.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
now that the line moved it's not as great a play to back Atlanta, I was really more on top of it at the -3 +103 (or 106 sorry I don't recall exactly) that it was going at early on sunday night after the games. Vick has accounted for plenty of rushing yards for Atlanta, but even if he doesn't rush in this game Warrick dunn has ran behind the best running game in football for 130+ yards two weeks in a row; that's plenty to control the game. The real battle is free agent Grady Jackson vs. Atlanta's offensive line, and I don't think NO can win it. As for Brees, Deangelo hall anybody? Talk about a corner shutting some people down, he takes aways some significant options for brees. I'm still really confident in Atlanta at a decent price if it's available.

I also forgot to mention allen rossum, he's been providing Atlanta with some good field position as he's #9 and #5 on kickoff and punt returns in the league. That's another important factor in a tight battle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hall is the most overrated corner in the NFL.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Hall is an outstanding defender and certainly a tier 1 cornerback

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I'm a newb to this forum but I hope you don't mind my .02 cents here...

I think this is one of those games that you can crunch numbers all you want the week before, but when you turn the TV on Monday night right before kickoff you're going to say to yourself "Holy crap, that atmosphere is unreal. How do the Falcons win in that?!" It's pretty hard to win on the road in the NFL, and it's even harder to win on the road in the NFL on MNF. Now add to that the fact that this is the first game for the Saints since Katrina and I really think the Falcons are walking into a buzzsaw. I just don't think this game will come down to who has more talent (the Falcons clearly do). I think this will be one of the most intense, emotional games I've ever seen considering everything that's at stake for NO.

And this may be slightly off-topic but I've made more money betting against Mike Vick than any other athlete in any sport. There seems to be this perception that because he's a great athlete, he must also be a great QB. I would strongly disagree. He's a great scrambler and elusive as hell, but the guy rarely even passes for 200 yards. That's awful for a QB. Furthermore, he continually overthrows guys on simple 5-yard outs and shorthops the ball on posts and in routes. If he wasn't so athletic I highly doubt he would have a job. But like I said, I'm not complaining. I love fading him. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a newb to this forum but I hope you don't mind my .02 cents here...

I think this is one of those games that you can crunch numbers all you want the week before, but when you turn the TV on Monday night right before kickoff you're going to say to yourself "Holy crap, that atmosphere is unreal. How do the Falcons win in that?!" It's pretty hard to win on the road in the NFL, and it's even harder to win on the road in the NFL on MNF. Now add to that the fact that this is the first game for the Saints since Katrina and I really think the Falcons are walking into a buzzsaw. I just don't think this game will come down to who has more talent (the Falcons clearly do). I think this will be one of the most intense, emotional games I've ever seen considering everything that's at stake for NO.

And this may be slightly off-topic but I've made more money betting against Mike Vick than any other athlete in any sport. There seems to be this perception that because he's a great athlete, he must also be a great QB. I would strongly disagree. He's a great scrambler and elusive as hell, but the guy rarely even passes for 200 yards. That's awful for a QB. Furthermore, he continually overthrows guys on simple 5-yard outs and shorthops the ball on posts and in routes. If he wasn't so athletic I highly doubt he would have a job. But like I said, I'm not complaining. I love fading him. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree somewhat with your assesment on Vick as a QB. But it looks like the Falcons are content this season to structure the offense to let Vick do what he does best and it seems to be working early on.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Vick has a fantastic regular season winning percentage.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Atlanta is one of my top plays this week. I grabbed it -3.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
Vick has a fantastic regular season winning percentage.

[/ QUOTE ]

So does Tommy Maddox, but I'd rather stab myself in the eyeball with a shrimp fork than bet on him anytime he starts a game. As for Vick, he's always been the benefactor of teams that have a stout defense and a very good running game. Granted, I will give you that the Falcons haven't exactly had the best receiving corp in the NFL. I still think he should be moved to WR though. They have a better QB in Schaub who is just wasting away on the bench.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Atlanta probably has a lot of value. I can't bring myself to think clearly on this game because I really want to cheer for New Orleans; I have a feeling that some of the people betting NO might feel the same.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hall is an outstanding defender and certainly a tier 1 cornerback

[/ QUOTE ]

not according to FootballOutsiders. I think you're relying on perception and announcer-speak, as opposed to his performance last year.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I'm relying on personal observation of every professional game he's played in. I don't think it is wise to presume my basis for rating NFL cornerbacks. He has a very strong jam at the line of scrimmage, is stout vs the run, and has top notch closing speed . He's clearly a perennial pro bowl corner.

What is FootballOutsiders take on Hall?

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wrong, this one will be close. Wait till Vick is forced to pass the ball on 3rd and long. This game is always close, especially for their first home game in the dome after katrina on MNF without a QB with the last name Brooks. I can see the Saints winning this outright. Stay away from this one. And the worst part of the Saints D is the secondary not the front seven. The Saints are so much better without Brooks there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great points. Brees over Brooks is a colossal upgrade. The funny thing about Brooks is that he's been awful for a long time but was able to hide that fact pretty well because not many fans care about the Saints. Now that he's in a bigger spotlight I've heard a lot of people say "What happened to this guy?!" Well, nothing happened. He just took his suckiness to another team. I may be in the minority but I think the Saints will win outright. Actually, I would be very surprised if they don't win outright. And you're right about Vick, if a team can get him in a passing situation and actually MAKE him pass rather than run, he can't beat you.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I really think the line was only started at -3 on the falcons because of the hype about "re-opening the superdome". It's got many people in the public to believe in them and Vegas put the line in a smart place in my (totally newb) opinion. It's football, nobody took pity on the saints last year, neither will the falcons.

No conclusions yet about Sean Payton, but I think Jim Mora jr. and Alex Gibbs are rising to elite coaching status, the falcons should be ready to play in any hostile environment. Warrick Dunn is from NO area, he was among hte most active people in Katrina relief last year, this game means a lot to him as well.

As to Deangelo Hall, I took that from Jim Mora's press conference mostly, that I will admit.

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Hall is the most overrated corner in the NFL.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is without a doubt Charles Woodson. Hall is top 5 imo

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm relying on personal observation of every professional game he's played in....
is stout vs the run, and has top notch closing speed .

He's clearly a perennial pro bowl corner.

What is FootballOutsiders take on Hall?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Personal observation is not meaningful, esp if you haven't watched every snap of every NFL game to compare him, right? It's how he compares to *other* NFL starting DBs that is the question. Not if you think he looks good on tape.

2) He is not that good against the run compared to many Pro Bowl DBs. But he is very fast.

3) I remember when guys said that about Roynell Young and Ashley Ambrose. Perhaps you are right. He's got one so far.

4) www.footballoutsiders.com

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Yeah I looked at that website but I couldn't find any Hall analysis

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

I just got home from work, Its been a long day at the office.. Im looking at lines on this game, I see the following:
nevermind sorry [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

What is the affiliation between fox sports and footballoutsiders?

Re: looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO
 

Ah, sorry, must be just in their book, Pro Football Prospectus, I highly recommend it in general, reg stats and their stats and a lot more on every team.