Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

down to 14 players in PS 20/180, nearly every pot from T1600 to T200 has been either an uncontested allin push or a 1-caller coinflip, as usual.

Villain here has just suffered some bad luck. He has had a rush of cards, but has taken the worst of it after losing with AA, two hands later losing with AJ vs KQ, then tripling up from a tiny stack with JJ on the next hand. The very next hand after that (below) he pauses just for a few seconds before making his move again

SB and BB have been calling and pushing only with premium hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t11932)
SB (t17464)
BB (t17775)
UTG (t37500)
MP1 (t30723)
MP2 (t17523)
Villain (t8374)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises to t8274</font>, Hero ??

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

I fold if you call and lose you have 1.5BBs,

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

True but with shorthanded tables and an M of 5-6 at t2000, might this not be a good chance to get in with a better hand and actually double? As opposed to pray that I get decent cards soon and/or manage to steal one hand per orbit until someone actually calls with a worse hand to double me in a better spot? BB is comin in 3 hands

If you "knew" you had better than 50/50 against the villain, would you still fold?

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

Typically when players push two or three times in a row, they have legitimate hands, since they know they have a small bullseye on their heads. I would be surprised if you were ahead in this instance, unless the villian was on tilt, but his showdowns seem to indicate otherwise.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
Typically when players push two or three times in a row, they have legitimate hands, since they know they have a small bullseye on their heads. I would be surprised if you were ahead in this instance, unless the villian was on tilt, but his showdowns seem to indicate otherwise.

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I hear you but.. would his previous rush be any indication that his very next hand would be 'premium' as well? And if so, why? Realize his blinds are coming in 3 hands - at 2K

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
Typically when players push two or three times in a row, they have legitimate hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Urgh, horrible. As always.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

I'd fold. It's just not quite good enough, and you'd either be a coin toss or a big dog. A big shaggy dog.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

I agree. I would wait for a bigger hand. This all-in move actually doesn't say much about his hand, he could easily have AK or QJ. Why are you so sure you're ahead here?

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

There are better ways to get chips than calling here.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

I fold. You can accumulate more chips through well planned steals. There's no need to call here and risk going bust near the final table bubble. With 4 other players at the table that would be crippled by calling one of your pushes and losing you should have plenty of opportunities still.

I would rather push with 72o than call with K9o.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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I would rather push with 72o than call with K9o.

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Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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I'd fold. It's just not quite good enough, and you'd either be a coin toss or a big dog. A big shaggy dog.

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I LOLed at this.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. I would wait for a bigger hand. This all-in move actually doesn't say much about his hand, he could easily have AK or QJ. Why are you so sure you're ahead here?

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Biggest reason is (his) tilt factor and second reason is his slight pause.
a) when someone takes a bad beat for most of their chips, then goes allin next hand, I tend to put those people on a much wider range of hands than if they had time to 'cool off'
b) His pause. The time he pushed for all his chips and showed AA, he did an instapush. The time he called with AJ, he instacalled. There was a slight delay in his action on this hand, so I sensed weakness
c) third reason -- he was in the cutoff and was first in, therefore he was using the leverage of first-in vig and FE . If you believe they are leaning on this FE crutch should one not use the reverse?

Here is my main contention with the standard "I'd rather push with 72o than call with K9" line:
1) people are going to call with a top 10% hand, meaning with 7 people, even if I wait a hand or two to try and get lucky and pick up a hand - there will be over a 50% chance that one of the others has a calling hand. Even if I go allin with 72, there is over a 50% chance that one of the other 6 players will call with a top 10% hand.
b) these blinds and antes are nasty. I will be losing 30% of my chips soon, after which my FE goes down considerably

I dig the green plastic guys. I dig the FE concept. But I am fostering the idea that there is a counter to FE (from others) and that the more people abuse the first-in FE, the more I should call (or reraise) in certain situations that evidently everyone sees as an automatic fold. If everyone is playing the same way (pushbotting with 5-12BB, only calling with premium at 5-12BB), where is the skill? I am not saying make a habit of calling with top 25% hands, but man if there ever was a spot to do it I thought this was the time

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
If everyone is playing the same way (pushbotting with 5-12BB, only calling with premium at 5-12BB), where is the skill? I am not saying make a habit of calling with top 25% hands, but man if there ever was a spot to do it I thought this was the time

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The thing is, not "everyone" is versed in short stack theory. The vast majority of players have almost no concept of blinds in relation to stack size.

Assume he's still playing tight until given a reason to believe otherwise.

No matter WHAT my read on him is, I'm still not ever calling with K9...

Edit: Especially with players left to act.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]

The thing is, not "everyone" is versed in short stack theory. The vast majority of players have almost no concept of blinds in relation to stack size.

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The villain was decent and I had played with him for a few levels. His stats (ROI and $) were 25% ish and +6Kish

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Assume he's still playing tight until given a reason to believe otherwise.


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the dude had an M of 4 and was about to lose half of his chips in a few hands... plus possible tilt factor

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No matter WHAT my read on him is, I'm still not ever calling with K9

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-- this is what I'm challenging. There have to be exceptions! (in my mind)

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I agree. I would wait for a bigger hand. This all-in move actually doesn't say much about his hand, he could easily have AK or QJ. Why are you so sure you're ahead here?

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Biggest reason is (his) tilt factor and second reason is his slight pause.
a) when someone takes a bad beat for most of their chips, then goes allin next hand, I tend to put those people on a much wider range of hands than if they had time to 'cool off'
b) His pause. The time he pushed for all his chips and showed AA, he did an instapush. The time he called with AJ, he instacalled. There was a slight delay in his action on this hand, so I sensed weakness
c) third reason -- he was in the cutoff and was first in, therefore he was using the leverage of first-in vig and FE . If you believe they are leaning on this FE crutch should one not use the reverse?

Here is my main contention with the standard "I'd rather push with 72o than call with K9" line:
1) people are going to call with a top 10% hand, meaning with 7 people, even if I wait a hand or two to try and get lucky and pick up a hand - there will be over a 50% chance that one of the others has a calling hand. Even if I go allin with 72, there is over a 50% chance that one of the other 6 players will call with a top 10% hand.
b) these blinds and antes are nasty. I will be losing 30% of my chips soon, after which my FE goes down considerably

I dig the green plastic guys. I dig the FE concept. But I am fostering the idea that there is a counter to FE (from others) and that the more people abuse the first-in FE, the more I should call (or reraise) in certain situations that evidently everyone sees as an automatic fold. If everyone is playing the same way (pushbotting with 5-12BB, only calling with premium at 5-12BB), where is the skill? I am not saying make a habit of calling with top 25% hands, but man if there ever was a spot to do it I thought this was the time

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all relative to the chipstacks and blind structure at the time. Because calling and busting leaves you with no chips you are better off open pushing any hand that folds to you as opposed to calling here and utilizing YOUR fold equity, forcing the players who are playing tight to pickup a hand in order to play. Most of them won't call with K9 as you did here.

The other flaw in your thinking is that a player who open pushes most likely no longer has a random hand. When you open push you are assuming that you are pushing into random hands and assign a range to how often they call. The opposite is true here. The OR no longer has a random hand and now has a hand that fits a certain range. That range could easily be be wide but how wide... maybe he's pushing the top 40% of hands... but it's not random any more. How does K9o fare against some of those ranges?

Vs top 40% K9o is a 53/47 dog.

Vs top 20% K9o is a 62/38 dog.

Vs top 50% K9o is only a 52/47 favorite.

So even if we are optimistic and assume villain is pushing the top 40% of hands, which is a pretty loose range for a guy shoving UTG, we're still a dog and if we're really optimistic and say it's top 50% we're only a slight favorite versus that range. How can calling be good here when we still have a small amount of fold equity against the guys with 17k stacks? Of course you don't shove into the CL's blind. Just shove into the medium-small stacks blinds without regard to your cards. No matter what you hold it's more +EV than calling here without a doubt.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

This is a very clear fold.

1. It's very hard to imagine you having an edge here. At best you are gonna be up against 76s or something like that. But your edge in this case won't make up for the time when the opponent has ANY A or a pair.

2. You are on the button so you aren't gonna have to pay the BB soon.

3. There are 140k in chips on your table...so there should be a couple of small stacks on the other table....so it won't be unheard of for you to survive for the FT, where you get to see more hands btw blinds.

4. Calling and winning won't help your case as much as you'd like. In this case you are going to kill your image, AND you will still be short-handed where you'd really like to have a tighter image.

5. You are deep enough that you still have FE.


(On a side note, calling here would be fine if you had 50k or more)

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]


This is all relative to the chipstacks and blind structure at the time. Because calling and busting leaves you with no chips you are better off open pushing any hand that folds to you as opposed to calling here and utilizing YOUR fold equity, forcing the players who are playing tight to pickup a hand in order to play. Most of them won't call with K9 as you did here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the modus operandis for everyone who sticks to first in/FE, I agree. As noted, everyone at the table is 4BB-15BB

[ QUOTE ]
The other flaw in your thinking is that a player who open pushes most likely no longer has a random hand. When you open push you are assuming that you are pushing into random hands and assign a range to how often they call. The opposite is true here. The OR no longer has a random hand and now has a hand that fits a certain range. That range could easily be be wide but how wide... maybe he's pushing the top 40% of hands... but it's not random any more. How does K9o fare against some of those ranges?

Vs top 40% K9o is a 53/47 dog.

Vs top 20% K9o is a 62/38 dog.

Vs top 50% K9o is only a 52/47 favorite.

So even if we are optimistic and assume villain is pushing the top 40% of hands, which is a pretty loose range for a guy shoving UTG, we're still a dog and if we're really optimistic and say it's top 50% we're only a slight favorite versus that range. How can calling be good here when we still have a small amount of fold equity against the guys with 17k stacks? Of course you don't shove into the CL's blind. Just shove into the medium-small stacks blinds without regard to your cards. No matter what you hold it's more +EV than calling here without a doubt.

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Aha, see here's what I have a problem with. A major problem. Due to the factors described, I do not believe he has anything better than a random hand. Why would he? If he has the "I'd rather push with 72 than call with K9" mentality that everyone seems to have, why do I, by default, have to assume that he has above a 50% hand? In fact, I'm suspecting he is using his FE to open up his range and could have anything. Any ace (I doubt but sure, it's possible).. Any K, my kicker is bleh but decent against an "any K" hand. Any Q, any J etc and now I have a decent chance to double up. Not random anymore, for sure, but not necessarily a good hand! Even if I am 50/50, with the blinds I am doubling up (if they dont call). So if you "knew" you were 50/50, you would still fold?

And the double up part is key ~ I want to double up. If forced to push with "any two" and hope that that my FE carries me for another orbit, there is a 50% chance that someone at the table will actually call with a top 15% hand. Is my chance to double up there any better? No. If I do manage to sqeak out another orbit after stealing the blinds once, I will be in the same position in 7 hands unless I pick up some actual cards, only now I might not have this shot against the 'possible tilt' player.

Realistically, what is my best chance to double up? Well, I will have to get some cards and actually have someone call, or get lucky when someone calls my Q8 (or whatever) allin with an AT etc and double up that way.

Against a poor player who I did not assess as realizing the value of first-in/FE, I would not be inclined to call here. But against a good player whom I'm assuming is well aware of First-in/FE, is short-stacked and possibly on tilt, and possibly exploiting his recent rush to help his image, this is precisely why I made the call (reraise allin actually).

As for image, when my K9 does prove to be the best hand I've now:
a) shown that I can make some bold (odd/loose) calls and display amazing powers of insight (or just insane, in which case if someone pushes into my BB i will suspect they have cards and want a call)
b) I have enough chips to knock people out again and/or survive some orbits until I get a hand
c) Now when I do get a hand I might actually double up with them instead of simply buy the blinds.

My image up to this point had been tight/solid. Everyone (with the exception of two who are now gone) at the table had been playing the same ole pushbot when first in, call with premium for the last 2 levels. Complete [censored] luckfest.. No skill whatsoever, coinflip-a-rame, overpair-arama, bad beats here and there, etc. BORING. Tell me, where does skill come in in the 20/180s when down to 2 tables when there is absolutely no post flop play whatsoever. I've been to the finl 2 tables 3 of the 6 20/180s I've played and I'd say roughly 12 of the last 18 players are all-to-aware of first-in-Vig, and with the possible exception of a monster stack and the looser players, everyone is playing completely predictably. As such, I'm trying to find spots to be creative

This hand was the only one in the tourney that actually made me *think* hard, which was a good feeling for a change

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]

Realistically, what is my best chance to double up?

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Steal twice, and get a hand.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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I would rather push with 72o than call with K9o.

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sigh

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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Realistically, what is my best chance to double up? Well, I will have to get some cards and actually have someone call, or get lucky when someone calls my Q8 (or whatever) allin with an AT etc and double up that way.

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You'd think you had to be be up against similar ranges in the K9o hand. K9o runs into too many wrong-end 60/40's and is easily dominated otherwise. At the best, you're hoping to flip pairs lower than 88 OR dominating something. That doesn't mean you call here. The key to the Q8 &gt; AT hypothetical is first-in vig, because you can tick a few points of FE into the factors.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
You'd think you had to be be up against similar ranges in the K9o hand. K9o runs into too many wrong-end 60/40's and is easily dominated otherwise. At the best, you're hoping to flip pairs lower than 88 OR dominating something. That doesn't mean you call here.

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Agree, but what if the factors surrounding the hand conspire to convince me that he is making a move, using the seemingly omniprescient "I'd rather move allin with 72 than call w/ K9" pervasive crutch.

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The key to the Q8 &gt; AT hypothetical is first-in vig, because you can tick a few points of FE into the factors.

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Aha. But AT still beats Q8 more than 50/50, whereas my K9 is a 25% hand (albeit BARELY) and there is a very very very good chance that the shortstack is making a move and leaning on the FE crutch (because he IS a good player and would be aware of using first in vig with 'any two')

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

If he's good and the blinds are tight, you should push because he's probably shoving any 2.

Steve

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

Well, if you trust your reads and decide to call with K9o based on that read, you're gambling. An educated gamble, to be sure, but it's still a gamble. Problem is, you're rarely going to get the math guys to agree with this on the merits of your hand alone, and they have a valid point. There are less hazardous spots to pick up chips in a MTT.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you trust your reads and decide to call with K9o based on that read, you're gambling. An educated gamble, to be sure, but it's still a gamble. Problem is, you're rarely going to get the math guys to agree with this on the merits of your hand alone, and they have a valid point. There are less hazardous spots to pick up chips in a MTT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a math guy. If the opponent is good and the blinds are tight, folding is awful.

Steve

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

Devil's advocate, man. I'd have made the call too.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very clear fold.

1. It's very hard to imagine you having an edge here. At best you are gonna be up against 76s or something like that. But your edge in this case won't make up for the time when the opponent has ANY A or a pair.

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No, at best he might be going with "any King" and I have him dominated, or 'any Q', or he is using FE to buy the pot with any2 ala 76s or 76o

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2. You are on the button so you aren't gonna have to pay the BB soon.


[/ QUOTE ]

4 hands until BB, at which point I'll lose 1/5 (with antes) my stack unless I pick up a top 25% hand or better (which I have now) in the next four hands, make a move and either a) dont get called or b) have it hold up -- or make a move with Any2 to steal the blinds and not get called.

[ QUOTE ]

3. There are 140k in chips on your table...so there should be a couple of small stacks on the other table....so it won't be unheard of for you to survive for the FT, where you get to see more hands btw blinds.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't want to survive to the finl table with 6K chips. 3K blinds are about 5 mins away. And yes, I realize the blinds wont eat me up as much once at the finl table. But getting there with under 10K chips is not what I'm 'hoping' to do, espesh with 3K blinds and decent antes. There is one shorter stack at my table.. and he is the one 'making the move'

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4. Calling and winning won't help your case as much as you'd like. In this case you are going to kill your image, AND you will still be short-handed where you'd really like to have a tighter image.


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My image was tight, as was everyone else's by this point. All stealing our share of the blinds and only calling with v good hands. Complete luckfest.
By calling here:
a) I can show I am willing to gamble, thus preventing other folks from making a move at me with any2, so when they do try to get my blinds I will give them credit. I had been tight to this point, and by showing a bold call (if correct) people will not want to mess with me, espesh once I get back above 20K chips. I had lost about 20K earlier with AK vs KK, and my other showdowns had been premium. I dont believe they would 'suddenly' take me for a loose donk, they might in fact steal my blinds less and possible respect me more

[ QUOTE ]

5. You are deep enough that you still have FE.


[/ QUOTE ]
Barely. I'm going to have to 'make a move' soon, with or without cards

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you trust your reads and decide to call with K9o based on that read, you're gambling. An educated gamble, to be sure, but it's still a gamble. Problem is, you're rarely going to get the math guys to agree with this on the merits of your hand alone, and they have a valid point. There are less hazardous spots to pick up chips in a MTT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a math guy. If the opponent is good and the blinds are tight, folding is awful.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet, finally someone who doesn't think my gamble was bad. The blinds were VERY tight, so I went allin. Villain had J9o and I lost to a J, BUT it felt soo good to make a 'good call/read' (as opposed to standard push n pray) against a decent opp. I did get to the finl table through sheer luck

My main concern with these finl tbl bubble/shorterhanded situations is, if e1 is playing standard FE push/ prem call preflop at 5-15BB, why not gamble in special spots?

If everyone says to 'steal blinds twice, get a hand', are they not gambling just as much.. leaving it up to the cards?

If I do manage to steal the blinds twice without a call, I'm praying. If I get called on one of those attempts (which is fairly likely), I'm praying that my likely worse cards get lucky. All the while praying that I actually catch a premium hand.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

I fold. I'd rather open-push with garbage than call an open-pusher, even in LP, and even with this hand.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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I fold. I'd rather open-push with garbage than call an open-pusher, even in LP, and even with this hand.

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If everyone thinks this way, FE should be re-evaluated. If first-in-Vig is being overused/abused, then it can be countered. If you knew what cards your opponents had (pushing with garbage), would you still fold K9?

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I'd rather open-push with garbage than call an open-pusher, even in LP, and even with this hand.

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If everyone thinks this way, FE should be re-evaluated. If first-in-Vig is being overused/abused, then it can be countered. If you knew what cards your opponents had (pushing with garbage), would you still fold K9?

[/ QUOTE ]

Play some SNGs. Go the the STT forum. It is standard practice to wait for a spot to push with a slightly worse hand than call with a slightly better hand.

Now that I think about it, this would almost be a better question for that forum.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I'd rather open-push with garbage than call an open-pusher, even in LP, and even with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If everyone thinks this way, FE should be re-evaluated. If first-in-Vig is being overused/abused, then it can be countered. If you knew what cards your opponents had (pushing with garbage), would you still fold K9?

[/ QUOTE ]

Play some SNGs. Go the the STT forum. It is standard practice to wait for a spot to push with a slightly worse hand than call with a slightly better hand.

Now that I think about it, this would almost be a better question for that forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do play sngs ~ 600 of them with a 17% ROI at 30$ avg stakes. Nothing spectacular by any means, but I'm not a complete donk. The 20/180s are technically sngs i suppose, so if this is a better Q there than I can post there. But this seems like a tourney, whatever.. my mistake.

BTW, I am not trying to be combative here, at all. So please don't mistake me for that. I want to take my tourney game to the next level, this is why I am looking for opinions other than my own and my friends'.
[ QUOTE ]
It is standard practice to wait for a spot to push with a slightly worse hand than call with a slightly better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am fully aware of this and have been for some time. This is my point (or lack of one). If more and more people are aware of this 'standard practice', would it not make sense to use this to your advantage and play differently? The fact that it has now become standard practice is convincing me to gamble more in certain spots.

My main experience has come from STTs, and I rarely if ever gamble on the bubble without good cause, good conditions, and good reads. At a tourney (if you consider a 180 entrant one a touney), I'm looking for some new ideas as sngs nearly play themselves.

Perhaps it is a function of the blind structures of the 180s~ it seems like in the 20/180s once it gets down to under 18 people there is a bottleneck ~ almost everyone's stack is in jeopardy in the 5-15BB range when almost everyone is playing preflop-poker-only, from the T1200 level to the T3000 level until a few bigger stacks emerge at the final table.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am fully aware of this and have been for some time. This is my point (or lack of one). If more and more people are aware of this 'standard practice', would it not make sense to use this to your advantage and play differently? The fact that it has now become standard practice is convincing me to gamble more in certain spots.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry for being short w/you before. You in the right forum, I just wondered if the STTs guys would be better for answering it.

Especially this quesiton that I quoted here. If we know the pushing range is wide, shouldn't we widen are calling range? Of course the answer is yes, but I think most people think that K9 is too wide.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]

Sorry for being short w/you before. You in the right forum, I just wondered if the STTs guys would be better for answering it.

Especially this quesiton that I quoted here. If we know the pushing range is wide, shouldn't we widen are calling range? Of course the answer is yes, but I think most people think that K9 is too wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool, no problem. Sngs I pretty much have down, at least at the under-50$ stakes. I dont gamble (calling) at the bubble much, at all actually, until I'm in the money in those.

In the 180s once im in the money, I'm looking for spots to gamble to get as many chips for the finl table as possible to get a 1st (have not won one yet). Have only played 6 so far, so looking for ideas. When blinds are low, it's a lot easier to get a home run and get some chips with speculative hands, but once the blinds get up there and post-flop-play evaporates for awhile, I'm at a loss what to do other than the standard and something tells me widening the range of calling hands in very select spots might be the key. I will be testing this theory.. and most likely losing.. in the 20/180s to come.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, at best he might be going with "any King" and I have him dominated, or 'any Q', or he is using FE to buy the pot with any2 ala 76s or 76o

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It is possible that he picked up a hand.



[ QUOTE ]
But getting there with under 10K chips is not what I'm 'hoping' to do

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Obviously, I'm not suggesting that you fold your way to the FT. I'm just pointing out that you are manufacturing a "dire" situation when I believe it's only "getting urgent".


I don't hate a call here. I just don't believe it is best. I think calling off your stack here will make it difficult to steal if you do win the hand because people will think that you over value hands. So if they have A8s in the BB they could more easily muster a call because they'd seen you make a "loose call" so they'd be more likely to believe you're making a "loose raise".


Also, when you describe the table as "VERY TIGHT" and "complete luckfest" in the same breath I really believe you don't "see" the game properly.

When you are playing shorthanded and people are only playing REAL hands you ought to be able to steal your way out of trouble...espically when the blinds are big. So when you call off your stack here you are foregoing an oppurtunity to steal your way to a big stack in order "capitalize" on a very slim +EV situation (which may actually be a -EV situation)

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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The blinds were VERY tight

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This is further evidence of why you should lean towards folding. Because the people to your immediate left fold too much.

Yes, the fact that the blinds are tight will make this situation more +EV. But the fact that 2 people at 7 handed table play super tight implies that you'll have good oppurtunities to steal frequently.


I just can't see taking a marginally +EV risk for your entire stack here when people at the table will let you steal too much.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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I would rather push with 72o than call with K9o.

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Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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Have only played 6 so far, so looking for ideas.

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Which is why when you post a hand on this forum it shouldn't be looking for someone to validate your play. If people offer suggestions that contradict your line of thought, you need to take them to heart, not argue vehemently against every opposing opinion. If you were so sure your play was right, why do you post the hand?

I'm not trying to be contentious here, just pointing out that when you post a hand you are asking for advice. Half the posts in this thread are yours. Do a bit more listening.

The short version of what my initial thought on your hand was this: don't put too much stock in a pause. Many people playing 20/180s are 4-tabling. It might have been their turn at three tables at once.

K9 is marginal, especially with people left to act behind you because you have 3 people's hands to worry about not 1. If this was a SB vs BB situation I would call. In this case I think you need A8+, 22+ KJ+. You're only a coin flip against QJ here, behind any A or pair and only 60/40 over 87, with two hands behind you who have you covered and are now getting great odds to call.

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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I'm a math guy. If the opponent is good and the blinds are tight, folding is awful.

Steve

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Sorry Steve, but it's a $20/180. Nowhere in the OP did it mention that the opponent was "good". Against a random $20 player, I assume he's smart like a hammer, and give him credit for a real hand until I at least have a little evidence to the contrary.

JMO

Re: Calling Equity? late 20/180
 

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Villain here has just suffered some bad luck. He has had a rush of cards, but has taken the worst of it after losing with AA, two hands later losing with AJ vs KQ, then tripling up from a tiny stack with JJ on the next hand. The very next hand after that (below) he pauses just for a few seconds before making his move again.

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I'm awake. Would this change him from a hammer to an awl?