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-   -   Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=211275)

Gaahl 09-13-2006 01:37 PM

Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
I dont know if this has been posted here before, I searched, but I didnt find anything.

[ QUOTE ]
Betfred is offering new online customers a bonus of up to £100, completely free with your first bet.

It really is as simple as it sounds!

Whatever you win from your first bet, Fred will give you an extra 100% on top, up to the value of £100. For example, if you win £100 with your first bet, we will double it up and give you another £100 completely free.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Terms and conditions
This offer only applies to a customer's first online bet.

1. The bonus is paid only on the bet winnings and does not include the bet stake.
2. To receive the 100% bonus the bet must be a winner on an event with three or more outcomes and where the odds of the selection are evens or greater.
3. For doubles and upwards the cumulative odds must be evens or greater, and all legs must have three or more outcomes.
4. This offer only applies to win bets and on each way bets the offer only applies to the win part.
5. Only one bet is permitted per household.
6. The minimum stake to qualify for bonus is £10 (or currency equivalent).
7. The maximum payout is £100 (or currency equivalent).
8. Settlement of bonus will be credited to a customer's account within 48 hours of the market completion.
9. Betfred reserves the rights to suspend, change or terminate this Bonus offer at any time at it’s own discretion.
10. Betfred reserve the right to decline bonus payments on any wager at their own discretion.

[/ QUOTE ]


The first question I ask myself, isnt it possible to hedge this bet with a betting exchange site ensuring a profit?

I have verry little knowledge around betting exchange, but somethings tells me that if you f.eks play 100£ on homewin on a soccermatch with the odds near to 2.00 (decimals) and then sell around x£? near the same odds, on homewin on a betting exchange site (betonbet, mansion, ect) , you would ensure a win no matter what the result is?

It sounds good on the paper, but can anyone who has knowledge on exchange betting\sportsbetting put up a guide on how to maximize EV from this promotion?

nivaman 09-13-2006 01:54 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Betfred is the new Mansion...

Gaahl 09-13-2006 02:17 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
But does anyone have a plan on how to maximize EV from this?

Ortho 09-13-2006 06:05 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
I got the exact same offer from a different bookmaker. If you want to hedge and lay it off on and exchange, it's a bit complicated but not too bad. You have to figure in the commission you're paying on the exchange into the arb, but you can just eyeball it if you want to get it close. Make sure your odds are evens or better and that it's a 3-way market.

BTW, since it's a £200 coinflip to win £300 you might seriously consider not hedging or just hedging some, since this is really good EV, but we don't need to get back into that again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: Didn't see your other question. If you want to max EV, just take them up on their offer, bet on something at evens, and hope it wins. Unless you find an arb lay on the same thing (unlikely in soccer markets but possible), hedging is always -EV. It's just how much you're willing to pay to not have to sweat the game. That should be related to your bankroll, not your psychology imo. See umpteen mansion threads for discussion of this.

707782 09-13-2006 06:58 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
I have a hard time understand what their rules are.

Doxa 09-13-2006 07:55 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
If you want to hedge try http://www.betbrain.com
For example : Chelsea - Liverpool 1x2 first half :
Home - 65£ at 2.5 Betfred = 260£ (with bonus, 60£ net)
Draw - 100£ at 2 BlueSQ = 200£ (0£ net)
Away - 35£ at 6 BlueSQ = 210£ (10£ net)
+ 25£ freebet with the sign up at BlueSQ

Little_Luck 09-13-2006 10:32 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
I just tried this promo, no US allowed, confirmed.

To get maximum value, I suggest you take up the betfred +125 on US winning Ryder cup and covering at mansion for the Euro and tie to get very good value. Euro was paying +102 when I checked today.

Again, no US, I tried and failed.

Also, maximum winning match is 100 pounds, therefore if you take a 2 to 1 bet, you should bet 50 pounds to win 100. They will only match your first 100 of winnings, not match a 100 pound bet.

fastandbulbous 09-14-2006 09:15 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I have a hard time understand what their rules are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here.

For instance, does a football game qualifies as an event with three outcomes (win, lose, tie) ?

And what does "odds of the selection are evens or greater" mean?

I'm not looking to hedge this bet, just want to be sure I make it right.

Ortho 09-14-2006 09:25 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Yes, a football (soccer) match has three outcomes and counts. The other term means that you have to make a bet at a price of 2.0, evens, or +100 or higher depending on which terminology you're using. You can't bet an odds-on favourite.

Doxa 09-14-2006 10:00 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Arsenal +1 at 2 is a good price (average is 1.78)

writser 09-14-2006 10:05 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
anyone has a kickback / affiliate for betfred?

Gaahl 09-14-2006 10:43 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
OK, so let me see if i have this straightened out, I only have to bet 50£ on a soccer match with the odds 2.0 or higher to get maximum bonus? (I know I have to win the bet to get the bonus)


Ortho: What other bookmaker had a similar promotion?

Ortho 09-14-2006 11:05 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Here is what I did. I deposited £100 using my visa card. I bet the £100 on the hated Spurs (who are Arsenal's biggest rival but whom, oddly, I always seem to have a bet on) at 2.0 in their match tonight away v Slavia Prague. If Spurs lose, I will cry. If Spurs win, I will email Fred saying "My bet won. Please credit my bonus" and Fred will put another £100 in my account and I will have £300 in there.

The other bookmaker that had this promotion was Betdirect, but theirs was 50% to £100 so you had to bet to win £200 instead of £100 as here. This is a better offer.

Gaahl 09-14-2006 11:24 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
[ QUOTE ]
1. The bonus is paid only on the bet winnings and does not include the bet stake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im having a little trouble understanding what they mean. If i bet 50£ on a result with 2.0 in odds, i wil win 100£ and then get 100£ in bonus? So i only have to bet 50£ on 2.0 odds to qualify for the full 100£ bonus?

Bet 50£, total win 100£, total bonus 100£?

Ortho 09-14-2006 11:37 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
No. 2.0 in odds is even money. Your £50 bet would pay £50 in winnings and you would get a £50 (100% of your winnings) bonus put on top. If you want to get the maximum frm the promotion, you must bet £100 at 2.0. Then you will win £100 if you win and £100 bonus will be put on top.

If you bet £50 at 2.0, your total win is only £50. The other £50 (because you get back a total of £100) is your returned stake.

fastandbulbous 09-14-2006 12:55 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Now just to make sure I understand this: the bet opposite the arsenal bet suggested by Doxa (Man -1 at 15/8) would qualify too, right? But I would need to bet 53.34£ to win 153,35£ (bet amount included), correct?

Ortho 09-14-2006 01:37 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Now just to make sure I understand this: the bet opposite the arsenal bet suggested by Doxa (Man -1 at 15/8) would qualify too, right? But I would need to bet 53.34£ to win 153,35£ (bet amount included), correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure. Is there a draw in that market? That looks like an asian handicap market with only 2 outcomes but if there is a draw, I think it's probably ok. It has to be a 3-way market. But generally, yes, if you're finding a bet in a 3-way market at 15/8 (2.875), and you're betting £53.33 on it, that should give you £100 if it wins and get the £100 bonus. It just won't win as often as a bet closer to evens.

Sammich 09-14-2006 02:08 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
I am not sure if this has been said out loud yet but it does explain why the thread isnt blowing up. No filthy Yanks allowed on this promo. I cried a little.

fastandbulbous 09-14-2006 02:17 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Ortho, the bet I mentioned is the same game as Doxa's bet (Arsenal vs Manchester), the numbers are from BetFred too.

Ortho 09-14-2006 02:26 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Ok, I see the market you're talking about:
[ QUOTE ]
Man United -1 2.88
Tie -1 3.50
Arsenal +1 2.00.

[/ QUOTE ]

This looks like a 3-outcome market to me and hence ok. But I have never bet on this kind of 3-way asian before so perhaps someone else has an opinion.

Ortho 09-14-2006 04:16 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
1-0 Spurs! Thanks for posting this, OP.

Ortho 09-14-2006 05:23 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Wow, BetFred rules! After the match I sent email saying I wasn't sure if the bonus credit was automatic or if I had to email for it. They mailed me back in less than an hour and said it was normally automatic within 48 hours but they just went ahead and added it. No restrictions on cashout.

canarymofo 09-15-2006 11:19 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Hedged it in Horse Racing with Betfair for a nice profit.

If you take enough attention you can bet a Horse in Betfred at a price and lay it at the same price in Betfair.

dingying 09-15-2006 11:27 AM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Is US person eligible for this promo?

SinkRox 09-16-2006 07:32 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
ding, no US unfortunatly.

What happens if you bet looses, do you loose the whole bet? And you only get the bonus if your bet wins? So its very +ev but does have risk of loosing?

canarymofo 09-16-2006 07:39 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
[ QUOTE ]

What happens if you bet looses, do you loose the whole bet? And you only get the bonus if your bet wins? So its very +ev but does have risk of loosing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly

dingying 09-17-2006 03:34 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
thx. but US players are allowed at their poker site, right?

supercheval 09-18-2006 06:09 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
Do they ask for documents at cashout?

MadMat 09-18-2006 07:04 PM

Re: Betfred 100£ bonus on first bet, hedging?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Hedged it in Horse Racing with Betfair for a nice profit.

If you take enough attention you can bet a Horse in Betfred at a price and lay it at the same price in Betfair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain to a sportsbetting noob just how that works ???

Mat


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