Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

YTD: -$147
Teased games: 4-1 (80%)
2 Team Teases: 3-4 (.429) -$105
4 team teases: 0-1 -$42


Current BR: $1953

Bet on mansion lines. I believe the Bears, Vikings, and Seattle games may move, so get on these fast, ( especially bears)

Bears -8.5
Vikings +2
Packers +2
Seattle -7 ( home team, likely line move)

If you are playing exact same at home, bet sizes are $97 and $39.

Also, for future reference, I round down when there is remainder cents, and for 6 teams I will be betting 4% and 1.5%, 7 teams 3$ and 1%

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

I know what you're trying to do here, Dali, but i hate including the Packers in this.

The Saints pass defense is going to have a field day with Favre. I have this game as 24-7, moving the line to 24-16 still is way away from a predicted cover.

I love the Bears / Seattle play though.

Just my $0.02. If you don't want this kind of feedback and just want to try the system, i'll shut up in the future...

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know what you're trying to do here, Dali, but i hate including the Packers in this.

The Saints pass defense is going to have a field day with Favre. I have this game as 24-7, moving the line to 24-16 still is way away from a predicted cover.

I love the Bears / Seattle play though.

Just my $0.02. If you don't want this kind of feedback and just want to try the system, i'll shut up in the future...

[/ QUOTE ]

Feedback is fine. I'm doing a very limited amount of capping in this, and this is not a case where I have a choice; it's a straight standard wong, and considered the most profitable one too; the home dog.

My only capping will be getting off the 3 or 7.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know what you're trying to do here, Dali, but i hate including the Packers in this.

The Saints pass defense is going to have a field day with Favre. I have this game as 24-7, moving the line to 24-16 still is way away from a predicted cover.

I love the Bears / Seattle play though.

Just my $0.02. If you don't want this kind of feedback and just want to try the system, i'll shut up in the future...

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why seattle -7 is a good move? I'm still a sportsbetting noob.

I was considering AZ +7 cause I don't think seattle's secondary defense can shut down Arizona's passing game. Seattle will win, but the +7 makes it tempting to go with AZ. thanks

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

The whole system is to get the value of the 7 and 3 in point spread. Going from +7 to +13 has less value than going from -7 to -1. You got off the 7 can crossed back over the 3. On the plus 7 you only got off the 7.

-SFWUSC

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know what you're trying to do here, Dali, but i hate including the Packers in this.

The Saints pass defense is going to have a field day with Favre. I have this game as 24-7, moving the line to 24-16 still is way away from a predicted cover.

I love the Bears / Seattle play though.

Just my $0.02. If you don't want this kind of feedback and just want to try the system, i'll shut up in the future...

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why seattle -7 is a good move? I'm still a sportsbetting noob.

I was considering AZ +7 cause I don't think seattle's secondary defense can shut down Arizona's passing game. Seattle will win, but the +7 makes it tempting to go with AZ. thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, maybe I shouldn't have posted the regular lines, just the tased amounts. Teasing Seattle to only -1 is a good move if you are pretty sure they will win. If you are specifically asking an opinion the the line itself, this isn;t really the thread for that. Try starting another.

I think from now on, I will post my picks as "teased to" amounts like I did in Week 1. Sorry for any confusion.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

First, we're talking about teasers. You link two games, move the spread by six points in your favor in each. So if you tease Chicago and Seattle you end up with: Chicago -2.5 and Seattle -1 as the lines, with the tease paying Even Money (or -110 on Bodog).

The most important value in these teasers is to cross the 7 and the 3, which is the system Daliman is playing here (he's playing all teasers that cross both the 7 and 3, and he's possibly playing those that end on 3/7.

I'm not commenting on Seattle -7 at this time, but I love Seattle -1 and I love Chicago -2.5, so I love the teaser.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

Sorry, I understand now. thanks for explaining.
like i said, I'm a noob [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

is Bodog a better deal than Mansion for me?

I might just do one that I like the best for a few units.

you get a 10% bonus.

1.1 at -1.1

Win you have 2.1 units with 2.2 unit WR (basicly 1x)

Can you arb the Bodog win for 4 cents or less?

Trying to get every cent I can [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

-SFWUSC

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
is Bodog a better deal than Mansion for me?

I might just do one that I like the best for a few units.

you get a 10% bonus.

1.1 at -1.1

Win you have 2.1 units with 2.2 unit WR (basicly 1x)

Can you arb the Bodog win for 4 cents or less?

Trying to get every cent I can [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

-SFWUSC

[/ QUOTE ]

Bonus requires like 5x rollover, so no.

For 3 or 4 teamers, they're fine though, IIRC.

historical data on teams covering?
 

Daliman,

What percentage of wong teasers (the teams, not the bets) typically cover over the course of a season?

Based on my voodoo math, if there are 4 wong-able teams each week, thus 6 2-point teasers, you need 3 out of 4 to break even, 4 out of 4 to make a profit, right? So over the course of the season you need > 75% to make money? How often does this happen?

Is 4-5 wong-able teams per week typical?

Good luck.

Re: historical data on teams covering?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Daliman,

What percentage of wong teasers (the teams, not the bets) typically cover over the course of a season?

Based on my voodoo math, if there are 4 wong-able teams each week, thus 6 2-point teasers, you need 3 out of 4 to break even, 4 out of 4 to make a profit, right? So over the course of the season you need > 75% to make money? How often does this happen?

Is 4-5 wong-able teams per week typical?

Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to SSB the break even point for a +100 6-point tease is 70.7%. Wong predicts 74-75% is the actual number of covers, although the Wong teases were only running at 71% since 2000 (insignificant sample). IIRC the break even point doesn't factor in pushes so there is more ev than it may seem.

Re: historical data on teams covering?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Daliman,

What percentage of wong teasers (the teams, not the bets) typically cover over the course of a season?

Based on my voodoo math, if there are 4 wong-able teams each week, thus 6 2-point teasers, you need 3 out of 4 to break even, 4 out of 4 to make a profit, right? So over the course of the season you need > 75% to make money? How often does this happen?

Is 4-5 wong-able teams per week typical?

Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to SSB the break even point for a +100 6-point tease is 70.7%. Wong predicts 74-75% is the actual number of covers, although the Wong teases were only running at 71% since 2000 (insignificant sample). IIRC the break even point doesn't factor in pushes so there is more ev than it may seem.

[/ QUOTE ]

does wong calculate vs -110? i think he does.

while +100 is a lot harder to get this year, its still available and so is -105.

Re: historical data on teams covering?
 

-110 breakeven is 72.4%, I just assumed most people were betting at Mansion since the promotion.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
First, we're talking about teasers. You link two games, move the spread by six points in your favor in each. So if you tease Chicago and Seattle you end up with: Chicago -2.5 and Seattle -1 as the lines, with the tease paying Even Money (or -110 on Bodog).

The most important value in these teasers is to cross the 7 and the 3, which is the system Daliman is playing here (he's playing all teasers that cross both the 7 and 3, and he's possibly playing those that end on 3/7.

I'm not commenting on Seattle -7 at this time, but I love Seattle -1 and I love Chicago -2.5, so I love the teaser.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I took the teaser on Seattle/Chicago for even money on mansion. My first time experimenting with a teaser bet, so I'm kind of stoked for this Sunday [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


There is no way I could include Green Bay in this. In fact, my second bet was on New Orleans -2 because I'm fairly confident that Green Bay really really really really really really really sucks.

hopefully these picks work out...

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

I think that is smart. If you are like moving the line six points doesnt make me good, then you likely should take the other side.

Ex

Green Bay +8 I will Pass
N.O -2 Must be atleast interesting.

-SFWUSC

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

I think I am going to take the 3 for one teaser and place around 2- 2.5 units on it.

Assuming 75% of each game is won. It should it 42% of the time. Then again I am throwing out the game I think is a loser...so maybe I am 100% to win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

-SFWUSC

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

I took Seattle -1 & Vikings +8, but not any of the other permutations...just doing this for fun.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that is smart. If you are like moving the line six points doesnt make me good, then you likely should take the other side.

Ex

Green Bay +8 I will Pass
N.O -2 Must be atleast interesting.

-SFWUSC

[/ QUOTE ]

Non-wonged teaser bets are inherently -EV; probably even more so than regular bets. If you like N.O., take them straight up.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Non-wonged teaser bets are inherently -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

you positive that teasing small dogs is better then teasing 6-6.5 point favs?

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Non-wonged teaser bets are inherently -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

you positive that teasing small dogs is better then teasing 6-6.5 point favs?

[/ QUOTE ]

6-6.5 point faves are not wongable.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Non-wonged teaser bets are inherently -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

you positive that teasing small dogs is better then teasing 6-6.5 point favs?

[/ QUOTE ]

The key to the Wong/tease, is to get off the 7 and 3 because those are the most likely numbers to push (I believe 15-16%). So, basically, your looking for 1.5-2.5 pt dogs and teasing them to 7.5-8.5, or 7.5-8.5 favs and teasing them down to 1.5, 2.5. Thus, you avoid the common pitfalls of the 7 and 3, instead winning both.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

Enjoy the +100 while you can.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

Jax +1.5 for the re-wongers. I threw out GB as well, I hate going against a system because it never works out for me but couldn't pull the trigger.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

The thing is you are assuming it is a good line. I didnt take the packers b/c I think the line is bad. It might be EV+ if the line is wrong by more than 6 points which I think it might be. I just am not sure enough of it to take it. I am not going to take packers with it moved 6 points in their favor.

-SFWUSC

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jax +1.5 for the re-wongers. I threw out GB as well, I hate going against a system because it never works out for me but couldn't pull the trigger.

[/ QUOTE ]

TY for the heads up, got Jax +7.5 total in with the other 4 in 2 and 4 teamers. Lotta $$$ in play this week. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

Daliman,

Thanks for the tip on Mansion offering the two-teamers at even money. I did Cards/Jags last week which won. I just did all three of the NFC North teams for this week.

For those who can't stand including the Pack, they started 0-4 last year before winning their first game, a blow out against the Saints. Also, teams that are coming off a shut out have done very well ATS in the past. Lastly, GB was stomped by Baltimore late last year; the next week they were a +6.5 point dog, and lost by 7. Just some food for thought.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Enjoy the +100 while you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, because all three of the top books that have +100 are just going to increase the juice all of a sudden.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Enjoy the +100 while you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, because all three of the top books that have +100 are just going to increase the juice all of a sudden.

[/ QUOTE ]

it wouldn't be all of a sudden as there is definitely a trend in that direction.

also, 5dimes doesn't offer a 'true' +100 as they offer different lines on teasers.

mansion will boot (from teasers) anyone who bets basic strategy teasers only.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

on the other hand, a new book betmania offered +100 as presumably a way to attract some new customers. if it's true that wong teasers are just over breakeven since 2000, i can see books using +100 as a marketing tool for the short term future.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
mansion will boot (from teasers) anyone who bets basic strategy teasers only.

[/ QUOTE ]

Speculation, or are there complaints of this happening?

I'm thinking of opening an account to do just that but will not bother if that is already happening to people as opposed to a vague thing people think is likely to happen in the future.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

where are teaser options in mansions [censored] interface?

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
where are teaser options in mansions [censored] interface?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just click on the radio button of the various bets you want to tease then hit any of the 'add bets' buttons and the option to tease is on the confirmation page.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Enjoy the +100 while you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, because all three of the top books that have +100 are just going to increase the juice all of a sudden.

[/ QUOTE ]

it wouldn't be all of a sudden as there is definitely a trend in that direction.

also, 5dimes doesn't offer a 'true' +100 as they offer different lines on teasers.

mansion will boot (from teasers) anyone who bets basic strategy teasers only.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have yet to see different odds on teasers at 5Dimes, where I am also playing a seperate BR. I have heard rumbling, however, from others that mansion will block winning teaser bettors from betting teasers at some point.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
mansion will boot (from teasers) anyone who bets basic strategy teasers only.

[/ QUOTE ]

Speculation, or are there complaints of this happening?

I'm thinking of opening an account to do just that but will not bother if that is already happening to people as opposed to a vague thing people think is likely to happen in the future.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, there's no SB bonus anyways, so if it doensn't work out, there's no extra incentive to stay and play through. Remember 5dimes has +100 too, plus like 20% bonus.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

No one has mentioned that Jax +2.5 is available.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

I am middling my Wong Teaser.

I have seen a lot of good picker take AZ +7 at even money.

I am good on the teaser aslong as Minn vs. Carolina doesnt go crazy after the 2 min warning.

So hopefully Seatle wins by between 2-6 with 1 and 7 being splits for me.

-SFWUSC

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

Well, 4-0 so far, now for yet another easy Monday Night home dog cover [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img].


P.S. Opinion wanted: I won a straight bet on the Vikings; should I count that $$$ towards my future bets as new $$$ in BR? I am leaning towards yes, as it won't affect my W/L, but if there are followers, the bet sizing will be a bit different.

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You're 4-0? I thought you had Green Bay?

Re: Daliman\'s Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2
 

[ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You're 4-0? I thought you had Green Bay?

[/ QUOTE ]
I did. These are teasers, and I was getting 7.5, ( or was it 8.5?).