200-400 Hand.
 

6 handed. Typical high stakes players. Two to the right of the button opens for 400. You are next and make it 600 with KJ of diamonds. Button makes it 800. Blinds fold. Flop Q42 with diamond club spade. Check, check, bet, call. Easy call, easy fold, close call or close fold?

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

Looks like an easy fold to me. Your backdoor draws aren't enough to call with this potential dominated hand with reverse implied odds.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

easy easy fold. too much in the way of reverse implied odds.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

i'd call getting 15.5:1 likely to close action on turn

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

I assume the open capping hands from Button are standard. You are closing the action getting 15.5:1 odds + slight implied odds for your backdoor straight and flush draws. I think its a close call but you are clearly getting the odds to peel one here. 3 outs is 15:1 ish, i think your backdoor outs are easliy countable as 3+. Especially given the range of AK, AKs being possible holdings of the button, where a jack may be good.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

Easy call. There's a lot of money yet to go into this 15SB pot and you're about a 25:1 dog for you diamonds to come in. Throw in a backdoor straight and a percentile for making a pair and you're getting a good price.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

Easy fold.

How could it not be?

One of the hands I can see either opening or four betting here PF is KQ, and of course AK-AQ.

Is this a trick question?

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold.

How could it not be?

One of the hands I can see either opening or four betting here PF is KQ, and of course AK-AQ.

Is this a trick question?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's getting 15.5:1 closing the action. Even if his K and J outs don't count, which obviously they do have some value greater then 0 outs, then the outs of drawing to runner runner diamond or runner runner T-A, or T-9 make it a close call, but correct call.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

You have to call.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

It's close. For myself a bit on a positive side to call down because of one overcard.

I made some math a year ago on a similar question here on twoplustwo. Hope it helps:

Flop call with nothing but backdoors math

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

It is definitely not an easy spot, but I'm not sure on close call vs close fold. If I were somehow guaranteed I'd be able to see the river for just 1 bet on the turn if I so desired, than I would say close call.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

I used to think this was an easy fold, but Peter Rus convinced me (back when he posted the hand he linked to here) that it's actually a slightly positive EV call. I admit that I sometimes miss calls like these because I'm too quick to recognize that I "missed" and fold.

Note that we've been put in an almost perfect situation to make this call.

- button is a typical high stakes player, so he might be willing to cap preflop but then give us a free card on the turn (AK comes to mind here as a hand he might play very aggressively but then check after being called twice on the flop).

- we will likely know on the turn whether or not we can call closing the action. Our position here is perfect.

- our backdoor diamond draw is almost guaranteed to be good. AKd (Kd in our hand) AQd (Qd on board) AJd (Jd in our hand) are all impossible holdings.

- all backdoor straight draws guaranteed to be the nuts.


A K or J may also be good, as JJ and AK are both easily in button's range. I'd say it's a close call. If I'm wrong, then it's a close fold, but "clear fold" is almost certainly incorrect.

-Eric

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

For meta reasons or do you think this call in isolation is +EV?

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

I'm a calling station and I don't exactly know whether it's right or not (but pretty sure it's a call) and I've been calling in this spot.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

Yep, I'm peeling here too...

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

I think its close, but I would call. I would just like to add that one aspect that would make this an easy call for me is, if you can hit a King or a Jack on the turn, or you hit a King or a Jack on the river assuming you turned a draw, how perfectly can you play these hands given your read on your opponents? For example: If you hit a Jack on the turn and the action goes check, check, and the BTN bets and the other guy folds and now the actions on you, and lets say you call, can you play the river prefectly against this guy? Do you know if this guy will bluff the river more than optimally in this spot or will he only bet the river if he has Jx beat meaning you can safely check/fold. Or If you deem that betting is the correct play if you have a pair of Jacks or Kings by the river, is this an easy call if the villain raises? or is this an easy fold?

I guess my point it, it looks to me you have a close call on the flop, but if you can hit your pair outs on the turn or river and play them well becuz you know youre opponents well, I dont think your flop call close, I think it becomes an easy call.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

call. if you knew button would bet every turn 100% of the time, it's close.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

it may depend a bit on my knowledge of button, but i'd likely call here.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

none of the pair outs are clean, and that's where hero loses money (rio).

also the implied odds arent as good as they seem because, with 3 people seeing the turn, picking up a draw could become very expensive. typical high limit players share one trait: they are aggressive and tend to keep the pressure on. this is a fold.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

"There's a lot of money yet to go into this 15SB pot and you're about a 25:1 dog for you diamonds to come in. Throw in a backdoor straight and a percentile for making a pair and you're getting a good price."

very optimistic. be sure to ignore all the bad things that happen when you make a pair and are crushed or pick up a draw and have to start calling raises wedged between two aggressive typical high limit players. you guys arent thinking about this very carefully.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

Easy call.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

If button has a tendency to check the turn behind here with hands like unimproved AK or TT i think this becomes a close call, otherwise a close fold.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
it may depend a bit on my knowledge of button, but i'd likely call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

For me, it would depend on my knowledge of the opener. The issue is whether the opener looks like he is going to check-raise the button if I improve on the turn and it's checked to the button.

TSP

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

6/47 of the time we're going to turn a flush draw.

3/47 of the time we're going to turn an open-ended straight draw.

6/47 of the time we're going to turn a gutshot straight draw.

1/47 of the time we're going to turn an open-ended straight and flush draw.

2/47 of the time we're going to turn a gutshot straight and flush draw.

A bit less than 7/47 of the time we're going to turn a pair.

Taken from the turn forward, these are all profitable prospects, possibly (but not likely) excepting the turns where we make a pair. If these should be unprofitable, we're right to dump them even when we make a pair and lump them with the 22/47 of the time when we turn air and give the hand up. Complaints of bad reverse implied odds are largely without merit.

The question is whether the profitability of the 25/47 of the time wherein we improve on the turn outweighs the 1 SB investment which will have been lost those times we do not. I'm fairly certain, without having checked the numbers, that the answer is an emphatic yes.

The combo draws are hugely profitable in such a monsterous pot, as are the flush draws and open-ended straight draw. I don't have the time to run numbers here, but the amount you're going to be required to invest, on average, on the turn certainly factors heavily into the question of profitability. I'd ballpark the number at 1.33 BB on the turn, and hold that we can extract an average of 2 BB on the river when we improve. I haven't the time or inclination to run the numbers from there, but I'm fairly they'll support a peel.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

And I just read the Pete's post on the other thread. What he said. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
6 handed. Typical high stakes players. Two to the right of the button opens for 400. You are next and make it 600 with KJ of diamonds. Button makes it 800. Blinds fold. Flop Q42 with diamond club spade. Check, check, bet, call. Easy call, easy fold, close call or close fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

ez call dude

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

I like how the responses in this thread go from easy fold to close call to easy call.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

yea, it might be useful to first define easy call vs. close call. For example, maybe an "easy call" is one with greater than .1 BB in EV or something (thats kind of a random number because I haven't looked much into this).

A lot of people on 2+2 just say "easy call" because the call is very routine for them and the statement is not really a reflection of the call's EV, but rather their comfort level with making it.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

I was more commenting on the fact that a decision becomes much easier for people after respected posters advocate said decision.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

what he's saying is some of you are fos. schneids and others say easy call and then suddenly everyone's saying "easy call".

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
what he's saying is some of you are fos. schneids and others say easy call and then suddenly everyone's saying "easy call".


[/ QUOTE ]

for the record i was the first one to say call

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
what he's saying is some of you are fos. schneids and others say easy call and then suddenly everyone's saying "easy call".

[/ QUOTE ]

This flop call will never be inherently easy for me. Mike would you call the flop in this spot if you could hit a King or Jack on the turn or river, and play this hand perfectly becuz you somehow knew your oppoents very well?

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

FWIW, this is a spot wher ei never used to call.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, this is a spot wher ei never used to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing. I routinely make this call now.

However, I am willing to concede that live I would almost certainly fold.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

I believe this is a close call. For those who say this is an "easy" call, do you still believe calling is correct if the board is T42 with one diamond?

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

i used to autocall here. my natural tendency is to play loose and aggressive so this call comes naturally for me. now i play significantly more thoughtfully and cautiously when up against preflop raisers and reraisers. live those raises just tend to be so much more meaningful. it's easy to overestimate implied odds and underestimate reverse implied odds in the heat of battle. in aggressive games against experienced or tough players it's better to think the other way around. people suggesting the button might frequently check behind on the turn here are being way too optimistic. 200-400 players have a tendency to bet when checked to.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

Closing the action is key. I'd worry about the reverse implied odds if a K, T or diamond hit the turn. If I miss it's moot.

But I'd feel good if this was one of those times the highly unlikely yet remotely possible perfect Td came off.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

i guess i dont really see why our reverse implied odds are so bad here. if a K or J comes on the turn and its two back to use we fold. If we call a J turn we can sometimes fold the river depending on the action and our reads. If we hit a K or J and are not good we often have outs to improve to the best hand.

I mean its not like we're gonna hit a pair and put like 4 bets in. And its not particularly likely that it is two back to us if we turn a flush or straight draw.

Although AK probably wont check the turn, it will often be checking the river which is good if we hit a J...or like if he has TT/JJ and we turn a K he's gonna check the river usually so the reverse implied odds aren't as bad as they seem imo.

Also aggressive players cap AQs here a lot and sometimes AQo or 99.

Re: 200-400 Hand.
 

[ QUOTE ]

- button is a typical high stakes player, so he might be willing to cap preflop but then give us a free card on the turn (AK comes to mind here as a hand he might play very aggressively but then check after being called twice on the flop).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you and some others may not be considering that this game was played in Vegas (I assume) where there is a 5 bet cap preflop. That may be enough to change the answer to this problem with respect to the buttons hand range. This is not some kid on the internet playing 99 and thinking a cap will be good to gain control of the hand. This button 3 bet DS and was fully aware that he could get 5 bet. That skews his han range and drives up our reverse implied odds a bit.