100NL weak set laydown?
 

So is this too weak? obviously i put him on aces here, do you think im right? my reasoning is that if he had kings or queens, most ppl would check behind on the turn here, and the villians stats are 20/6 after 150 hands, so to me it looks like a set of aces here.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($223.35)
Button ($50.56)
SB ($51.15)
BB ($240.71)
Hero ($148.10)
MP ($96.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $13</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $9.

Flop: ($27.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $18</font>, Hero calls $18.

Turn: ($63.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $45</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $108.50

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

AK is still a likely, AQ is also possible although not likely if villain doesn't 3bet lightly pf.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

I find AK too be very unlikley, and AQ is impossible. Villian is quite passive pre-flop, and he doesnt view me as being out of line.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

the numbers you gave aren't nearly good enough for you to say AK is very unlikely, it isn't.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

Bad fold.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

I think this is definately aces if the CO is a really tight passive player that only reraises with AA or KK. If he is loose and scrappy at all, then you probably should have called.

I like the fold here. You had a read on the player, and you trusted yourself. Good work.

I know many players that will never ever reraise with anything but AA or KK, this is an observation you have to make without pokertracker. If he is one of them I think you can be confident with your fold. Against just about anyone else this is a bad fold.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I find AK too be very unlikley, and AQ is impossible. Villian is quite passive pre-flop, and he doesnt view me as being out of line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
obviously i put him on aces here

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If that really is the case, why did you call preflop?

Given the check/call and then the check/bet, I'd say he has an ace...if he has aces, God bless him, but I'd hope for AK and check raise all in

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

If the ace on the flop were a king, would you weak tighties think he flopped a set of kings and fold?

20/6 is not good enough to make me think this is ONLY aces...and it's not close

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

do u care to elaborate on ur answer?

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
obviously i put him on aces here

[/ QUOTE ]

If that really is the case, why did you call?

Given the check/call and then the check/bet, I'd say he has an ace...if he has aces, God bless him, but I'd hope for AK and check raise all in

[/ QUOTE ]

I called p/f for set value. I called the flop because kings or queens would bet this flop when checked too. Now when he bets the turn, i think kings or queens would check behind here.


[ QUOTE ]
If the ace on the flop were a king, would you weak tighties think he flopped a set of kings and fold?

20/6 is not good enough to make me think this is ONLY aces...and it's not close

[/ QUOTE ]

If the flop was a king, i would have pushed, because i beat aces. The difference between the ace high flop and a king high flop is that the ace is a scare card for any hands that i beat (assuming he doesnt have AK, which im quite sure he doesn't based on his previous play), and when he continues agression on the turn, well he just doesn't seem scared of that ace. If it was a king i would push the turn if he followed the same line, because it now opens his range up, as he would do this with aces. Im not saying im correct, but these are my thoughts, feel free to correct me here.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

I HATE the fold...he has AK enough to make pushing the turn correct

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

This is how I would have played it.

Lead for 3/4 of the pot on the flop. Call a reraise, check raise allin on the turn.

Or, lead for 3/4 of the pot, if he calls, pot the turn, allin river.

No way im folding the 2nd set here. If you are letting go of sets this often on a raised pot than you are playing way too weak/tight and you might as well stop calling raises with pocket pairs altogether.

Get all the money in here and go broke if you have to.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

[ QUOTE ]


No way im folding the 2nd set here. If you are letting go of sets this often on a raised pot than you are playing way too weak/tight and you might as well stop calling raises with pocket pairs altogether.

Get all the money in here and go broke if you have to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definatley do not make it a habit to fold sets, to be honest i cant remember the last time i folded a set. but here i had a read and went with it. remember im only posting hands i have trouble with, so if i post a set laydown, it doesnt mean im laying down sets all the time. In this case i had that feeling, u know the feeling? when u think for ages and u just have that voice in ur head saying ur behind, but u wanna call so bad. I used to have the problem of calling when i have that feeling, and 85% of the time im beat, so now im working folding when i have that feeling. this probably doesnt make much sense but yea watever.....

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

don't worry, it makes a lot of sense

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


No way im folding the 2nd set here. If you are letting go of sets this often on a raised pot than you are playing way too weak/tight and you might as well stop calling raises with pocket pairs altogether.

Get all the money in here and go broke if you have to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definatley do not make it a habit to fold sets, to be honest i cant remember the last time i folded a set. but here i had a read and went with it. remember im only posting hands i have trouble with, so if i post a set laydown, it doesnt mean im laying down sets all the time. In this case i had that feeling, u know the feeling? when u think for ages and u just have that voice in ur head saying ur behind, but u wanna call so bad. I used to have the problem of calling when i have that feeling, and 85% of the time im beat, so now im working folding when i have that feeling. this probably doesnt make much sense but yea watever.....

[/ QUOTE ]

You should fold preflop if you aren't willing to go broke here. A queen or higher will come on the flop about 45% of the time, so you need better than 8:1 to call for set value. And if you do hit a set on a J high or lower board, you aren't stacking QQ-AA every time.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

I think you are playing way too weak-tight. In one hand you lay down KK after flubbing the flop play, and now you want to lay down mid trips?

I would bet HARD on the flop. You're showing weakness like crazy.

Preflop - raise.
Flop - check/call.
Turn - check/call.
River - check/fold.

If I just had an A I would probably be betting this way against you.

-Ernie S. Irwin

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

That isn't fair at all, as far as hand reading goes, this isn't a simple situation. KK and QQ aren't giving this type of action on a A high flop, but AA and KK will still give you action on a Q high flop, if he happens to have QQ that's poker, this is not the same dillema as the op is facing.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

Still think his 20/6 stats bring the reraise with AK into play much more than OP feels.

3 ways to have 2 aces for the set
12 combos of AK

I also agree with Fallen Hero's well written post about hand ranges...but there is enough chance this is AK to call this.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Still think his 20/6 stats bring the reraise with AK into play much more than OP feels.

3 ways to have 2 aces for the set
12 combos of AK

I also agree with Fallen Hero's well written post about hand ranges...but there is enough chance this is AK to call this.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

someone help me out here, I'm trying to learn the math.

-45 to call 108.5, wich means to call you have to win %41.47 of the time.

-To fold your read has to be right %58.53 of the time?

-AK would be drawing dead against TT, but TT would still have the one outer for the four of a kind v AA, so that's not much, but it slightly affects the equation...(meaning your read would have to be SLIGHTY more accurate, math someone?)

-this also doesn't take into account future betteing on the river...

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

Horrible fold, I dont see how you can call the reraise preflop with the intention of hitting a set and then folding when you get it.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

people love to say things like that, it's horrible advise and completely misses the point of playing poker.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

This is 100NL. You can't rule out the possibility of some random hand. Even if I was against the rockiest of rocks I wouldn't lay this down. If I had thousands of hands and knew that he would only play AA this way I would think about it, but against an unknown, not a chance.

Re: 100NL weak set laydown?
 

I go broke with set over set everytime, 20/6 is not nearly rocky enough for me to fold here especially considering that you have not mentioned how others may view you. If you are going to call the re raise pre flop you need to be prepared to get it all in with a set here.