AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

UTG+1 is 19 VPIP/ 4 PFR/ 1.6 AF
MP1 is 20 VPIP/ 5 PFR / 1.7 AF

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) HERO is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls <font color="aaaaaa">(3.5:2)</font>, 5 folds, HERO calls <font color="aaaaaa">(5.5:1)</font>.

I put MP1 on a middle pair or something KQish, probably suited given UTG's standards. PF call weak or standard?

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls <font color="aaaaaa">(7.5:1)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls <font color="aaaaaa">(12.5:2)</font>, HERO calls <font color="aaaaaa">(14.5:1)</font>.

MP1's call encouraged me to hand around. I narrowed his range to a flush draw and thus a high card hand I dominated. I tried to represent a monster since I felt confident MP1 wouldn't play back with 2 aggressors.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7.75BB, 3 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls <font color="aaaaaa">(8.75:1)</font>, HERO calls <font color="aaaaaa">(9.75:1)</font>.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10.75BB, 3 players)
HERO...?

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

I think you go over aggro on the flop, just call here. When you don't improve on the turn it is time to fold. As played I c/c the river if it's still one bet when it comes back to me.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Preflop looks good. I wouldn't 3-bet since UTG1's raising standards seem pretty tight (how big is the sample size?). AQ is behind a 4% raising range.

Flop look very much like spewing. Your raise won't fold anyone here since they already put money in. Even a peel is thin I think. You should call the 3-bet, however, for your overs and BDFD.

I have no idea why you call the turn.

River I bet/call.

Edited for a typo.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

I c/c the flop, fold the turn.

Since you stuck around for the river, I call this getting 10.75-1.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

As played, I think I would bet-fold the river to a UTG+1 raise. If that ace doesn't slow him down, he has us beat. If MP1 is the raisor, on the other hand, I think we call as he could likely be raising with a lower kicker.

As for the play on the flop...
I would definitely not raise this. Why are you more afraid of MP1 playing back than you are of UTG+1 playing back? The latter seams highly likely, given his stats and previous play on the hand. Also, for those odds, MP1 is probobly not going anywhere given the range of hands you put him on. You aren't setting up a bluff on a later street, so why "try to represent a monster" when you are almost certainly going to showdown on this hand?

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Preflop Ok.

Flop is a call, too much FPS here.
Turn we are done when we receive no help.

Your probably against 2 pair or better when the river hits.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Flop is spew. You didn't 3-bet pre-flop so pretending you have a monster on the flop doesn't make much sense, especially since you don't cap and then you check the turn. Turn call is only good if you think your outs are clean and I'm not thinking they are so I'm probably done there. Bet/call the river unless MP1 wakes up and it's 2 back to you.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

** grunch **

Ok, this is my first post and it will probably highlight my inexperience but;

For 1 bet I'll call the p/f/r and the MP1 cold call but I want to see a nice flop.

Post-flop although the flop is unlikely to have improved anyone, given the action so far I don't really like where I am, I may raise to see where I stand &amp; possibly to try for a free card but I would be ready to drop on the turn UI. I definately don't like the UTG+1 3-bet here. Also, I'm not sure how much information the raise gives you, UTG+1 may see this as an attempt to buy a free card (given the 2-flush) or as a steal attempt by the BB given the flop co-ordination, that said he seems to like his hand.

On the turn I think I would drop, you've lost the BDFD which leaves you with (best case) 6 outs and discounting a little for possible holdings, AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ &amp; removing the Qd (this leaves you with 3-4 outs at most) and no odds to call.

As for the river this is one of the cards you were waiting for and possibly one of the cards your opponent(s) were dreading? Given the action so far I don't think UTG+1 is on AK which is my worry, so I would bet out thinking he is unlikely to bet into this scare card? There is also the option to check hoping that UTG+1 bets (putting you both on the flush draw) this may get a call from MP and will allow you to call gaining 2 bets if MP calls and avoiding the loss of 2 bets in the event of AK.

Anyway, I'd be interested to know what you all think am I way off? Am I missing something obvious?

**edit**

Sorry missed the fact that you check-raised the flop so forget all the free-card rubbish. Given that you're first to act I would probably c/c the flop looking to see whether I could hit one of 6 possible outs on the turn.

In your situation, given that your oppoenent is willing to 3-bet into the check-raise I'd put him on a high pair - AA, KK &amp; QQ all reduce your outs significantly, only JJ, TT leave you with 6 outs. So that coupled with MP's possible holdings would see me fold the the turn.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Preflop: Fine. I will often 3-bet this, but not against this guy.

Flop: WTF? c/c.

Turn: Fold.

River: Bet. UTG+1 is not going to bet his underpair into two opponents. Neither is MP1.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Post-flop although the flop is unlikely to have improved anyone, given the action so far I don't really like where I am, I may raise to see where I stand

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising mainly for information is -EV. Mainly b/c the information is unreliable. Here, though, we can be almost 100% sure that we're behind.

[ QUOTE ]
possibly to try for a free card

[/ QUOTE ]
To make free card play profitable, you need a profitable draw in the first place. This is questionable here. In addition, a backdoor draw is not the time for free card play. And, even more importantly, you need position. So, no free card play here.

The only argument one can make to raise the flop is the hope to drive AK and AQ out. This isn't enough for me in this still rather small pot.

[ QUOTE ]
There is also the option to check hoping that UTG+1 bets (putting you both on the flush draw) this may get a call from MP and will allow you to call gaining 2 bets if MP calls and avoiding the loss of 2 bets in the event of AK.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think not betting the river has 2 problems.

(1) No one bets. In this case we usually win but lose value.

(2) UTG1 bets and MP2 raises. We prolly have to fold here, but may be folding the winner sometimes (when MP2 has like AJ).

So I like b/c (with a better read maybe b/f) better than c/c.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I'd be interested to know what you all think am I way off? Am I missing something obvious?

[/ QUOTE ]
Think again about free card play.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

I would strongly consider folding AQo when player that tight raises from early position. What's the hand that we could beat preflop?

I would call the flop and hope to hit something on the turn.

On the turn, he didn't slow down and we didn't improve, so I would fold here. We just don't have enough outs to continue any further.

On the river, I still think that we are losing here more often than we are winning, so I wouldn't raise, but I would call this, because the size of the pot.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop looks good. I wouldn't 3-bet since UTG1's raising standards seem pretty tight (how big is the sample size?).

[/ QUOTE ]

About 200-300 hands for both.

[ QUOTE ]
AQ is behind a 4% raising range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting priced to see a flop. I'm about a 4:1 dog.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop look very much like spewing. Your raise won't fold anyone here since they already put money in. Even a peel is thin I think. You should call the 3-bet, however, for your overs and BDFD.

I have no idea why you call the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Who knows what evil...

Consensus seems to be that I muffed the flop and I agree. I made a table read of the situation and decided to test it. In UTG+1's shoes, though, if checked to, you're going to bet with any raising hand and after the caller and the BB check-raises, you're bound to dislike any non-pair holding.

His 3-bet limits his hand to a PP, 99-AA. My outs are clean against the middle pairs, so I'm in the most trouble if it's QQ-AA but I know where 4 of those 12 cards are, so there are 3 ways to make a hand I'm pretty much dead against, 4 ways to make a hand where I've got 4.5 outs, and 18 ways to make a hand against which I've got 5.5 outs. The only hand I fear from MP that makes any sense is 88 and I'm not sure he'd even play that for a cold-call.

Pretty easy flop call as is the second call as a 4:1 dog. The raise was FPS but I think it gave me enough information to place myself in the hand.

I'm 8:1 on the turn.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As played, I think I would bet-fold the river to a UTG+1 raise. If that ace doesn't slow him down, he has us beat. If MP1 is the raisor, on the other hand, I think we call as he could likely be raising with a lower kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't confident I could fold the river since I hit my 'clean' out. I can't see any UTG+1 hand raising the river that plays like this that doesn't hold both remaining aces. I'm also not sure there are any hands I beat that would call except possibly UTG+1's middle pair. I could see MP1's 88 played this way though since nobody else appears to be drawing to the flush.


[ QUOTE ]
As for the play on the flop...
I would definitely not raise this. Why are you more afraid of MP1 playing back than you are of UTG+1 playing back?

[/ QUOTE ]

'more' afraid is overstating the information I gave. By raising, I'm exposing myself to a 3-bet and I don't want to do that if I think it's going to come back 2 bets. MP1 isn't closing the action on the flop and he cold-called PFR again so he must have a piece of the flop. When he called 2 back to him, I was certain he was on the flush draw but since I've got the A:diamond, the best he can have is KQs which I dominate.


[ QUOTE ]
You aren't setting up a bluff on a later street, so why "try to represent a monster" when you are almost certainly going to showdown on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. This was a mistake on my part. I should have just called down and probably bet the river.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your probably against 2 pair or better when the river hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you elaborate?

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Ampelmann covered this pretty well and I think I address your edited comments with my later replies.

In further support of your argument, you should assume that the Q:diamond is at best a tainted out and I felt that it wasn't even in play so I've got 4 outs for 2 aces and 2 queens and 1.5 for nut BDFD.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Fine. I will often 3-bet this, but not against this guy.

Flop: WTF? c/c.

Turn: Fold.

River: Bet. UTG+1 is not going to bet his underpair into two opponents. Neither is MP1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right [as usual] on all streets but I question the turn fold. Do you think my outs tainted or that I'm not getting the right price to see a river card?

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Interesting.

The turn fold is correct if I c/c the flop OR UTG+1 just smooth-calls (barely), but his 3-betting my c/r nonsense actually prices me into a turn call.

This is one of those cases where neither the flush draw nor my overcard outs are in conflict, so our combined outs are taking away from UTG+1's equity and not each other's. MP1 is always getting the right price to call and as long as MP1 calls, I'm getting substantial overlay to call as long as it's just 1 bet.

There's no way for UTG+1 to protect his hand here if I'm committed to taking the lead and bluffing at the pot.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

River:
HERO checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks.

Results:
Final pot: 10.75BB
<font color="#ffffff">HERO shows QS AD </font>
<font color="#ffffff">UTG+1 shows 10D10H </font>
<font color="#ffffff">MP1 shows KD JD </font>

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Ampelmann,

Thanks for the comments. My original thinking (before noticing the lack of position) was that a free card was a side benefit to raising for information. However, after thinking about what you've said I can see that neither of these would have much value (even with the correct position [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).

I think I've been using this sort of aggression a little too liberally in my game, without enough thought about its application, so I'll think more about how I use this in future.

I have one question; when you say "you need a profitable draw in the first place" do you mean that this play should be made when your draw is to a stronger hand than TP or when you have more available "outs".

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have one question; when you say "you need a profitable draw in the first place" do you mean that this play should be made when your draw is to a stronger hand than TP or when you have more available "outs".

[/ QUOTE ]
A profitable draw is one where you have the ((reverse) implied) odds to call. This implies (1) that your draw comes in often enough and (2) you win often enough if your draw comes in.

If it's profitable to pay one bet to see one card, it's usually also profitable to see two cards for two bets (backdoor draws are an exception to this). If it's unprofitable to see one card for one bet, it's usually also unprofitable to see two cards for two bets. That's what I meant by saying you need a profitable draw in the first place to (profitably) apply free card play.

profitable = "has positive expectation"

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

*GRUNCH*

MP2 seems like a flushdraw coming along for the ride. Probably something like KJs.

UTG+1 definitely raises with nothing less than AA-JJ, AKo, AKs, and AQs. On the river you are ahead of 3 hands, behind 2, and splitting with 1.

The flop is a little too aggressive. I either lead out here and call a raise, or just call his bet and fold the turn UI. UTG's raising range is way too small to call anymore bets on the turn UI, not to mention your outs could be limited due to the flush draw you put MP2 on.

Lead out on the river and call a raise.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Even if your numbers on villian are over a small range (say, 100 hands), you can't call let alone 3-bet this hand PF. You simply do not have enough equity here given his range of hands. As far as the flop, I don't get it. What do you intend to do with the turn if you miss? Continuation bet out of position? Your only real choices are c/c or c/f and DEFINITELY c/f the turn.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 definitely raises with nothing less than AA-JJ, AKo, AKs, and AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove has a pretty nifty feature that allows you to enter a percentage and it yields a reasonably approximation of possible hands. Your suggested range for 4% (actually 4.11) is pretty dead on but also includes pocket pairs, TT &amp; 99, which are standard down to 2.8% PFR.

Overall, it's 75% likely that all of my outs are clean, except the Q:diamonds: (see my earlier analysis). The flush draw and my overcard draw are competing against PFR and not each other. Moreover, I have a redraw to the nut flush so I'm still not dead if MP2 completes his hand.

Nice read on MP2. That's exactly what he held and the worst hand I could see him playing here.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

grunch

I wouldn't ch/r on the flop. I don't know what kind of monster you could represent with a flop like that when you didnn't raise preflop. Even if MP1 is on flush draw I would guess UTG+1 has a pocket pair of overcards possibly 2 of your 6 outs. It just doesn't seem the right time to be aggressive.

I might even ch/fold on the turn being convinced that UTG has a made hand after his 3 bet on the flop.

I would bet/fold the river.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can't call let alone 3-bet this hand PF. You simply do not have enough equity here given his range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.1092 % 53.45% 01.66% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 20.5332 % 17.43% 03.10% { 88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 24.3576 % 20.09% 04.27% { AdQs }

I have 20%-25% equity (4:1-3:1) and being BB and closing the action, the pot is laying me 5.5:1.

Even if you skew their ranges against me, a preflop call is still good.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.4951 % 51.38% 02.11% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 24.8137 % 23.04% 01.78% { JJ-88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 21.6911 % 18.46% 03.23% { AdQs }

If I had more confidence that these two could be playing light, this is a raise but as it stands, it's a pretty big mistake to fold pre-flop.


[ QUOTE ]

As far as the flop, I don't get it. What do you intend to do with the turn if you miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a brain fart. When I put MP2 on a hand, it all fell into place for me that I was in much better shape than I had thought and somehow that translated into a c/r instead of a c/c.

25% of the time
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.3121 % 64.53% 02.78% { QQ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 19.9954 % 18.68% 01.31% { 88, AJs, KJs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 3: 12.6925 % 09.10% 03.60% { AdQs }

75% of the time
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 59.7369 % 59.74% 00.00% { JJ-99 }
Hand 2: 16.5788 % 16.58% 00.00% { KJs+, KQo }
Hand 3: 23.6843 % 23.68% 00.00% { AdQs }

25% of 12% (3%) + 75% of 24% (18%) = 21%, so I'm still at 4:1 odds and I'm getting 7.5:1 to call the flop. Again, an easy call closing the action. The raise was a mistake.

If I play the flop correctly, the turn is a clear fold at 5.75:1.
If UTG+1 just smooth-calls me on the flop, the turn is a reasonable fold at 7.25:1.
After I butcher the flop, UTG+1 prices me into calling with ~8:1 odds and getting 8.75:1.

As far as "what's my plan for the rest?"... none, and that's the worst part. The rest of the hand plays itself, but once I made the decision that my outs were good and committed myself to the pot, I almost certainly should have value bet the river.


Thanks for the input, everyone!

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Fine. I will often 3-bet this, but not against this guy.

Flop: WTF? c/c.

Turn: Fold.

River: Bet. UTG+1 is not going to bet his underpair into two opponents. Neither is MP1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

Regarding the turn: You really can't give your A's and Q's full outs because it is very likely that one or both of your opponents has an A or a Q in his hand. And your odds would have been a lot worse on the turn had you correctly c/c the flop.

On the flop you almost need the BDFD to be able to call.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

I really cannot credit someone with a 4% PFR to raise UTG+1 with 99 or TT. TT is a long shot and 99 is no way in hell.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have 20%-25% equity (4:1-3:1) and being BB and closing the action, the pot is laying me 5.5:1.


[/ QUOTE ]


my brain fart, thought you were calling two bets

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

PF is good given the pot odds. Don't raise the flop. It aaccomplish nothing. It's ok to peel one card. Then c/f turn. Given the action I think a bet is good on the river.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really cannot credit someone with a 4% PFR to raise UTG+1 with 99 or TT. TT is a long shot and 99 is no way in hell.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen a number of people suggest this so I did some manual searches and I'm now working on PT query to look into it.

My initial scans suggest this is simply not true, but a good starting point so perhaps I should have weighted the percentages more towards being screwed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I looked at about 20 players with no less than 300 hands and a VPIP between 4 and 4.2 (the range of both opponents) and found mostly offsuit connector UTG/UTG+1 raises (all of which I dominate except AK) and number of PP ranging all the way down to 66 &amp; 77. This last surprised me since my range only goes down to 99 and I raise significantly more hands.

When I have a breakdown I'll provide it, but I think the reason people think the raise range is so narrow is that the smaller hands simply don't get shown down so they only ever see the monsters.

BTW - not to be results oriented, but you'll see that he raised TT UTG+1 PF in the actual play.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding the turn: You really can't give your A's and Q's full outs because it is very likely that one or both of your opponents has an A or a Q in his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually counting on it (and was wrong, but it was close) because it's the only way that I dominate MP1. There's no holding he can have that I am concerned about except *maybe* 88.

Possible MP1 holdings
QQ//KK/AA - PF 3-bet
JJ/TT/99 - often PF 3-bet
AKs/AKo/AQs - PF 3-bet
AJs - often PF 3-bet
KQs/KQo/KJs - calls
QJs - calls only if the table will come along
weaker hands usualy fold

When MP1 calls the flop bet with no cards in the playing zone and 2 diamonds, he pretty much defines his hand as [pick two] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] because I hold his ace. I dominate all of those hands, so as long as the flush doesn't come I will beat him. The Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is in MP1s hand or improves MP1 to a flush so I'm not even counting it. 3 (Aces) + 2 (Queens) + .5 (nBDFD) = 5.5 outs. The BDFD might only be drawing to 7 outs twice if UTG holds a diamond in his PP so discounting it is probably good but doesn't affect the odds any.

While it's possible that UTG+1 has QQ/AA the likelihood is reduced by the fact that my holding halves the likelihood he has either hand and MP1's likely holding all but eliminates QQ. I can eliminate AK/AQ, because I don't think there's any way he 3-bets the flop (again because I hold the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so he would not be suited or drawing to nBDFD).

I concede I'm well behind, but all of the outs I've counted are good. I'm giving up the turn on any card in the playing zone that doesn't improve me.


[ QUOTE ]
On the flop you almost need the BDFD to be able to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true but mostly because it means that all of my Ace outs are live and not completing the flush. The fact that I have a redraw is a bonus.

Re: AQo in BB. Call down overcards vs 2 tight-typical?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really cannot credit someone with a 4% PFR to raise UTG+1 with 99 or TT. TT is a long shot and 99 is no way in hell.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran a query on my PT database of about 125k hand histories and required 200 or more hands to be considered. I did *NOT* filter by position because this was my first look at the PT schema and calculating position was not immediately intuitive. Balancing that somewhat, however, you must remember that I only have access to hands that were shown down... many premium and many more non-premium hands were almost certainly discarded. My resulting sample size is only 234.

hole_cards count freq
AKo 39 16.7%
KK 31 13.2%
QQ 26 11.1%
AA 23 9.8%
JJ 22 9.4%
TT 15 6.4%
AKs 12 5.1%
AQo 12 5.1%
KQs 7 3.0%
AJo 6 2.6%
AQs 5 2.1%
KQo 4 1.7%
99 3 1.3%
AJs 3 1.3%
44 2 0.9%
ATs 2 0.9%
KJs 2 0.9%
32s 1 0.4%
55 1 0.4%
88 1 0.4%
96s 1 0.4%
A7o 1 0.4%
A8o 1 0.4%
A9o 1 0.4%
A9s 1 0.4%
JTo 1 0.4%
JTs 1 0.4%
K5o 1 0.4%
K5s 1 0.4%
K9o 1 0.4%
KTo 1 0.4%
KTs 1 0.4%
Q4s 1 0.4%
Q5s 1 0.4%
QJo 1 0.4%
QJs 1 0.4%
QTs 1 0.4%

Note that QQ/KK/AA only totals 33% which should be discounted because 1) these hands will see showdowns more frequently than other hands and 2) I hold an AQ and MP1 probably holds a Q so it is less likely I'm against QQ/AA.

If anyone wants to run the query against their own DB (hopefully larger), PM me.