Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Like 300 players left in Party 500K guaranteed.

Blinds are 500/1K, avg stack about 17K, and I have 9K on the button. MP open pushes for 11K. Call or fold 99?

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

call. by a lot...

I'd like to hear your reasoning for why you'd fold here.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

I'm folding just because you are on the button and will have other chances in the next orbit to be the raiser instead of the caller. Also is this late middle or early middle if this is MP3 doing this I would consider it because his range would undoubtedly be a little larger on a steal attempt.
~Justin

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Reads? Are we on the bubble?

With no antes villain's got 11BB which isn't a lot, but he's not on life support either. It seems pretty optimistic to think he's doing this with Ax where X<9; I'd go with A9+, KQs+, 22+. Pokerstove could give you a maths answer, but I don't think I'm calling here. (If pokerstove says call, I'll change my mind.)

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Hand 1: 55.7040 % 55.09% 00.61% { 99 }
Hand 2: 44.2960 % 43.69% 00.61% { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+ }

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

He was in MP/LP. Two players to act between the raiser and me, on the button.

Raiser seems like normal/tight-type Party player.

We are in the money.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 55.7040 % 55.09% 00.61% { 99 }
Hand 2: 44.2960 % 43.69% 00.61% { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+ }

[/ QUOTE ]
Even with this I am probably still not calling

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 55.7040 % 55.09% 00.61% { 99 }
Hand 2: 44.2960 % 43.69% 00.61% { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+ }

[/ QUOTE ]
Even with this I am probably still not calling

[/ QUOTE ]

Upon what range do you put the villain? Or is this a case where you take a pass on the +EV situation here on the assumption you can find a better spot (as the aggressor) later?

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 55.7040 % 55.09% 00.61% { 99 }
Hand 2: 44.2960 % 43.69% 00.61% { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+ }

[/ QUOTE ]
Even with this I am probably still not calling

[/ QUOTE ]

Making a statement like this without an explantion is absurd.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Exactly, in the long run you are calling when you are about 50/50 I think you are going to have a better spot to take a chance with better odds and folding equity on your side.
~Justin

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly, in the long run you are calling when you are about 50/50 I think you are going to have a better spot to take a chance with better odds and folding equity on your side.
~Justin

[/ QUOTE ]

With the lack of antes too you have an orbit with your stack staying the exact same. I hate calling into 50/50's (at best) for my tourney life, I would rather be the person putting someone else into that spot.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

I would think a broader range in this spot. AK-A7, AA-66, 2 broadway. Against that 99 is a 55/45 favorite. Throw in some possibility of a smaller Ace, smaller pair, bluff and it's even more favorable. This is the perfect time to start picking up chips and I'd call.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Passing on very clearly +cEV situations in this position in a huge tournament like this is ridiculous.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

And this is one spot where I think Harrington's "zone theory" is very applicable. As your "M" goes into the orange and red zone you need to be MORE willing to call with hands like decent Aces and middle pairs. There's very little advantage to not gambling here as the payout structure is still fairly flat for quite awhile.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

I don't think it's all that +cEV. My read on those 'tight guy open shoves 11 BB' all ins tends to be something closer to AK-AJs, QQ-77. In addition, AA-QQ, AK and sometimes JJ overcall behind you.

I make this call from the BB all day but I think it's fairly close on the button.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

If it isn't cEV+ based on a tight range I obviously would advocate a fold.

I'm saying that for jurollo to advocate a fold given the range he assigned-- is pretty bad.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

I'm pretty sure the call is right based on the range I'd put an average player on, but you still have to feel you need to take a coin flip at this stage.

THis is about as close as it gets.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

I think this is borderline at best, it most definately isn't a 'clear call', the best point brought up in this thread is LLoyd reminding us that the payout remains flat for quite some time now, which may make me call here more often than not, however and argument could be made to waiting and attempting to get a better spot.
~Justin

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
If it isn't cEV+ based on a tight range I obviously would advocate a fold.

I'm saying that for jurollo to advocate a fold given the range he assigned-- is pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didnt assign the range, I simply plugged Sam's in, my range would be tighter.
~Justin

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Without factoring in the possibility you're up against a big hand in the blinds, you're getting 1.17 to 1 odds and need 46% equity to break even. A range of 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo would give you 48.6% equity.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Again, I am not arguing that it is marginally +cEV, however, I think you can find a better spot than calling with a vulnerable hand, which should be figured into the equation as well.
~Justin

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it isn't cEV+ based on a tight range I obviously would advocate a fold.

I'm saying that for jurollo to advocate a fold given the range he assigned-- is pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didnt assign the range, I simply plugged Sam's in, my range would be tighter.
~Justin

[/ QUOTE ]

And I quote:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 55.7040 % 55.09% 00.61% { 99 }
Hand 2: 44.2960 % 43.69% 00.61% { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+ }

[/ QUOTE ]
Even with this I am probably still not calling

[/ QUOTE ]

You have yet to justify passing on what you percieve to be a cEV+ situation. That is all I am saying.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly, in the long run you are calling when you are about 50/50 I think you are going to have a better spot to take a chance with better odds and folding equity on your side.
~Justin

[/ QUOTE ]

I did.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Wrong quote but I get the point.

If you are in fact 55% against his range, with 9 big blinds when average is about twice that, you'd be lucky to somehow find a better equity spot than that in a tournament like this.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wrong quote but I get the point.

If you are in fact 55% against his range, with 9 big blinds when average is about twice that, you'd be lucky to somehow find a better equity spot than that in a tournament like this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I won't argue with you there, however, I think this is FAR from a slam dunk.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
in a tournament like this.


[/ QUOTE ]

The way party structures the Sunday tournaments, this is exactly the type of tourney where u can consider it. The levels are long and there are no antes. In a similar situation on Stars I agree it's a no-brainer, but here I think it's worth considering both options.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
The way party structures the Sunday tournaments, this is exactly the type of tourney where u can consider it. The levels are long and there are no antes. In a similar situation on Stars I agree it's a no-brainer, but here I think it's worth considering both options.

[/ QUOTE ]

The structure is good but not great, and with 300 players left I see no reason to consider survival a priority. The payouts barely increase at all until you start getting real deep.

You arent going to get chips to go deep by passing on 55% edges.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

I agree that this not a perfect, ideal spot but you need to gamble and accumulate chips. As Ansky said, there is a long way to serious money and your not going to get there by passing up small edges. I call, close my eyes, and then hold my breath.

-$$

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in a tournament like this.


[/ QUOTE ]

The way party structures the Sunday tournaments, this is exactly the type of tourney where u can consider it. The levels are long and there are no antes. In a similar situation on Stars I agree it's a no-brainer, but here I think it's worth considering both options.

[/ QUOTE ]

so, if not 99, what?

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in a tournament like this.


[/ QUOTE ]

The way party structures the Sunday tournaments, this is exactly the type of tourney where u can consider it. The levels are long and there are no antes. In a similar situation on Stars I agree it's a no-brainer, but here I think it's worth considering both options.

[/ QUOTE ]

so, if not 99, what?

[/ QUOTE ]
TT obviously

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in a tournament like this.


[/ QUOTE ]

The way party structures the Sunday tournaments, this is exactly the type of tourney where u can consider it. The levels are long and there are no antes. In a similar situation on Stars I agree it's a no-brainer, but here I think it's worth considering both options.

[/ QUOTE ]

so, if not 99, what?

[/ QUOTE ]
TT obviously

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume this is a joke, but it leads me to wonder something. If you are content with passing up on what you percieve as a cEV+ edge, what is the point at which you think you have enough of an edge? I personally think that passing on 55% would be pretty ridiculous in this spot. However, do you still pass with TT? AQ? At what point do you think you can no longer pass up on an edge. Seems like its a fine line... (Of course I'd deny that the line exists...)

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

why is passing on a 55% edge ridiculous? If this were earlier in the tournament i'd probably agree with you.. but w/ 300 remaining, people are gonna be getting knocked out at a faster rate, your seat is pretty valuable here.

Where would you start to pass up your edge? you think 51% is an easy call too?

I just checked the payout structure of the 500k to see if i can make an arguemnt, and, after seeing that 400 pay, i think this is indeed an easy call. 100th pays $150 more than what he has locked up so far. if this was before the bubble broke, i think it would be a fold though (and a call starting at TT )

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

The payout is ridiculously flat in this tournament. I hate calling off on a coinflip as much as the next guy, but I think this spot is too good to pass up at this stage. Having 20 bbs if you win is great, and you can really do a lot of damage at the table.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wrong quote but I get the point.

If you are in fact 55% against his range, with 9 big blinds when average is about twice that, you'd be lucky to somehow find a better equity spot than that in a tournament like this.

[/ QUOTE ]
I won't argue with you there, however, I think this is FAR from a slam dunk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm.... if you're going to use the logic that you'll have better opportunities later, please explain furtther Here's the statement that you must argue is true: (EV 9 BBs) > (EV 19.5) * (WIN%), where (EV 9 BBs) includes the probability that a "good situation" comes up multiplied by the EV that it will happen, as does (EV 19.5 BBs).

All you've said is that good situations happen frequently. We still need to know how good these situations are for short stacks and how good they are for big stacks.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Pushing with any two in a later position to steal blinds and buy time comes to mind here. I would rather do that then calling here in a spot that you could be dominated very easily.
~Justin

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

The play at this stage is not great, but it's definitely not very soft. The table no longer will be saturated with people who will call off with A5o and KJ. I don't think we are very likely to find a huge edge in the next few rounds.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing with any two in a later position to steal blinds and buy time comes to mind here. I would rather do that then calling here in a spot that you could be dominated very easily .


[/ QUOTE ]

Come on.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

I am serious, I would rather be raising in LP or LMP with any suited two than calling here, the bottom line here is you still have time, it isnt desperation time yet, and the lack of antes here can sustain you for a while. You are at best 50/50 here and I think the ranges thrown out earlier might even be a little larger than it is in reality.
~Justin

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Well one VERY important detail that we don't know is how aggro this table is. If it was a very aggressive table I'd call this without much thought. If it was very passive and I thought I could push with a lot of FE later like you say, I'd consider a fold. Although an argument can be made for calling at a table like that too because having a sort of big stack would be hugely +EV.

Re: Calling off all your chips with 99
 

Ok, I will give you that, aggro table I am calling here because the range is likely wider than stated earlier, thus increasing our EV. However, if this is on the passive side I fold and look for spots to sustain my stack with blind steals, waiting for a big hand.
~Justin