AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

Villain is 26/3.6/0.86 after 80 hands

I felt villain had overcards and was trying to push me off my overcards. I stuck to this read throughout the hand and didn't consider any other options. In hindsight, If I had glanced at his aggression factor I probably would have folded. What's your play in this situation?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, Hero raises</font>, 4 folds</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)</font>
MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)</font>
MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

Yeah, I agree with your thoughts. I'd probably fold the turn against a guy with this AF. Further reads on him would help I guess. What is the nature of his previous aggression? But the pot isn't even really big. I'd drop it without a second thought.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

Flop bet good, nice board. Not many draws, low pair helps your overcards, they check to you. Try and pick it up, you might have the best hand also.

Flop c/r call, good. You get ~1:10, I'd say your overcards are worth about 4 outs. So you can call. Also for your image this call is good; they cna't run over you with a flop c/r.

Turn, you didn't improve, no odds on a draw. You must think you are still behind and drawing (dead?) Fold.

(it would be more difficult if he had some 3.0 aggression. but I doubt this player is making a move on you. Actually his flop cr usually means a 5, but I wouldn't take it that far yet.)

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

i dont know. i kinda like the call down. i try that move on people who will fold uip through the river all the time on that board. if they dont reraise the turn i know that they dont have a pp higher than the board (so probably have high cards)and bet the river with great success.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i dont know. i kinda like the call down. i try that move on people who will fold uip through the river all the time on that board. if they dont reraise the turn i know that they dont have a pp higher than the board (so probably have high cards)and bet the river with great success.

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Out of the times you get called on the river doing this, you are often beat by a pocket pair. They fear a 5 and go into call down mode. Making this play does seem plausible though, I'm just wondering if you're up against overcards that will fold the river UI often enough to make it +EV. I guess a [censored]load of experience is needed to answer this question. (or any of you math heads feel free to calculate)

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

I'm good with calling down here. For one thing those PT stats are meaningless with 80 hands. TheONLY thing you know is he has a clue how to play and is a weak player. AF numbers are meaningless.

I would guess he has A?o and is trying to steal your pot. If he has pocket pairs - he is a very weak player and played it so wrong it's silly.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

I'm not sure why you would think he would try to get you off of a hand with just overcards. You raised PF. He knows that at a minimum you have overcards. You can put him on A/6s A/5s, a low poket pair that he just wanted to limp in PF.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

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i dont know. i kinda like the call down. i try that move on people ...

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I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say you probably have an aggression factor higher than 0.6.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

I don't think you can continue on the turn. You're drawing just to your overcards in a relatively small pot, let it go.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

If you think it's a move, like a slingshot bet(old thread), 3 bet the flop if you're going to call it down. However, with his AF, I don't see this as a move.

b

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

i dont know what these factors are i am determined not to use p tracker. i find that i dont need it. and i do think the stats it produces are correct but in some hands you have to play for circumstance not what a stat has been sayin.
not to mention when i move to vegas ill probably never play online again. im too good at reading faces and betting patterns of a flesh and blood.
to answer what my aggresion factor is- it is whatever the cards and my opponents call for. i can be known as a lag tag lap fish. i do whatever it is my opponents dont like and i win.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

I don't see how you can continue past the turn with only A high against a passive player who c/r'd the flop against a PFR and proceeded to lead the turn. Just fold it an move on.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

This is probably the correct play. I don't know how this hand has generated so much debate. His aggression factor means a lot in this situation. He might make this play with an overpair to the board, but I think calling the turn and river are both mistakes.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

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This is probably the correct play. I don't know how this hand has generated so much debate. His aggression factor means a lot in this situation. He might make this play with an overpair to the board, but I think calling the turn and river are both mistakes.

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first of all he could be trying to buy outs. or buy the ace high position. secondly you cant count on that stupid track unless you watch someone play for hours.
i know ive had and hour or two here or there where i did not get many hands and all of them were drawing omg now you got a read on me as a passive LOL.

"some plays have less of a - expectation than others"

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i know ive had and hour or two here or there where i did not get many hands and all of them were drawing omg now you got a read on me as a passive LOL.


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If you watch a table for an hour or 2, you can tell pretty well who is passive and who is aggressive. Depending on how you played those draws situationally, they may have been right.

b

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i know ive had and hour or two here or there where i did not get many hands and all of them were drawing omg now you got a read on me as a passive LOL.

"some plays have less of a - expectation than others"

[/ QUOTE ]This is so true. The other day, over 500 hands I had an aggression factor (postflop) of 15.5!! And I was wondering why they played in such an odd manner against me. They actually pulled isolation 3 bets on me preflop... well, sorry guys, I have AA again...

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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i know ive had and hour or two here or there where i did not get many hands and all of them were drawing omg now you got a read on me as a passive LOL.


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If you watch a table for an hour or 2, you can tell pretty well who is passive and who is aggressive. Depending on how you played those draws situationally, they may have been right.

b

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once again there are no certaintys since poker is a game of life and not a game of and hour or two. id focus more on watching how people play certain kinds of
hands. if they pay attention to the other players. if they like to play drawing hands in ep and do they limp or raise with them. if they get confused do they go into call down mode or raise mode. alot of stuff like that is more helpful than saying "hey he has a i suck balls factor of 3.4"

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

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If you think it's a move, like a slingshot bet(old thread), 3 bet the flop if you're going to call it down. However, with his AF, I don't see this as a move.

b

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agreed. next time you feel it's a move against you, 3 bet the flop and go from there (i prefer to continue betting the turn, checking river UI). of course any further agression by villan is an easy fold. gets you to showdown cheaper. but i think you see 77-TT here a lot.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

If we think it's a move what does 3betting the flop accomplish (othen then sometiems getting villian to fold a six out hand)?

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

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If we think it's a move what does 3betting the flop accomplish (othen then sometiems getting villian to fold a six out hand)?

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true that.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

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If we think it's a move what does 3betting the flop accomplish (othen then sometiems getting villian to fold a six out hand)?

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we can either take a free card on the turn and call river, or bet turn and check river. remember, the objective is to try and get to showdown cheaply and maintain control of the hand. this way it's 2 1/2 bb to showdown vs calling down as hero did in the hand for 3bb. though i think more unlikely online, live players will often throw away a small pair to me when i use this line if i have a good image.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

I fold on the flop after the raise. No back-door flush draw here, seems like a waste to chase especially at lower limits.
Paul

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

Fold to the check raise on the flop. I'd wait to crack him with a better hand.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we think it's a move what does 3betting the flop accomplish (othen then sometiems getting villian to fold a six out hand)?

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Reasons I like a three-bet:

We are ahead fairly often here. By three-betting the flop, we charge draws more in the scenario where they would check-raise flop, bet turn, check river. By calling down instead of getting aggressive, we allow villain to choose when he puts in money.

When we're in fact behind, we'd rather put in money earlier in the hand when our equity is higher, then be forced to pay off river bets where we're usually behind. (Villain is generally not bluffing the river more than 50% of the time when he bets). Add to that the fact that we can often see a showdown when behind for 2.5 bb instead of three.


It basically comes down to control the flow of the hand, and the times at which money goes in. Unless we have a really strong reason to believe our opponent is going to bluff all the way down with an inferior hand, we really want the money to go in early regardless of whether we're ahead or not:

-When ahead, we charge villain money to draw which he likely won't put in on the river.

-When behind, we put money in when we have the most equity and keep the total number of bets going in smaller.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

please read the following

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...page=&amp;vc=1

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

Hobbs,

I think this is one of the RARE situations where getting aggressive with overcards makes sense. The paired board means we are more likely to be ahead, and we are also more likely than usual to be up against a draw. We also gain very specific informational value and protection value.

So this may be an exception.

The key point, above all others, though, is the simple fact that we probably have a fair amount of showdown value here.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
please read the following

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...page=&amp;vc=1

[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting thread.

b

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

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i dont know what these factors are i am determined not to use p tracker. i find that i dont need it

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Phosix, I've heard you say this quite often, and I agree that any good poker player doesn't NEED PT, but really, if you haven't tried it, how do you know it can't add a slight edge?

That being said, I'm going to voice a big PT complaint. After 80 hands, an AF factor of .8 means absolutely NOTHING!!!!!!!!!! In my experience, the only stats that are meaningful after that small of a small are the really huge ones, because they more accurately assess looseness and agressiveness because the player already in 80 hands has had multiple opportunities to do so. (In other words 52/24/3.5 might tell you something, though still be very inaccurate) But deciding if a player is weak tight, tight agressive, loose passive, you'd be better off just watching them closely, and just don't look at their 12/2/.6 or whatever over 100 hands. They could be a TAG who has just been dealt 100 mostly crappy hands and been unable to push any edges. I'm definitely venting here, but I think in this hand, there were some great strategic arguments about whether to call down or not, but I dismiss all of them that use the stats. I'm just asking that people try to be realistic.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

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we are also more likely than usual to be up against a draw.

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What hand range do you put villian on?

This particular guy is really passive, but even with an average player, say PFA 1.5 or so, I would expect something like this:
Medium pair, 6x, 5x: 80% or so.
Bluff/Overs: 10% or so
OESD (87): less than 10%
Other draws: 73, 97: seldom

Unless I had experience seeing villian push PFRs off a pot in similar flops, I believe calling and folding the turn UI is the best play.

Make this flop 2 suited, or move it up to 98 and I feel differently about a 3-bet.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Phosix, I've heard you say this quite often, and I agree that any good poker player doesn't NEED PT, but really, if you haven't tried it, how do you know it can't add a slight edge?

That being said, I'm going to voice a big PT complaint. After 80 hands, an AF factor of .8 means absolutely NOTHING!!!!!!!!!! In my experience, the only stats that are meaningful after that small of a small are the really huge ones, because they more accurately assess looseness and agressiveness because the player already in 80 hands has had multiple opportunities to do so.

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The stat alone might mean nothing. But with observation it can mean quite a bit more. This is why it takes much less than 80 hands(usually about 20) to, generally, assess most players in a live game. Because you're watching more closely just what hands he's playing and how he's playing it(along with other factors you may not be privy to online).

If I've been sitting with someone for 2 hours(about 80 hands) in a live game, I have a pretty good idea as to how they play.

I do agree with Phosix that too many seem too dependent on PT and miss some key stuff in analyzing a player.

PT, imo, helps make up edge that's lost during multitabling. I'm not so sure it really adds an edge, while playing, if someone is only playing 1 or 2 tables and they know how to profile opponents.

b

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

Bernie, actually I think you said better what I was trying to get across in my 'complaint' post. I agree with you 100%, observation gets the job done in a short period of time, plus validate numbers with a shorter sample size. And I also agree with Phosix that people often just throw some numbers up there to justify random decisions.

I use Poker Ace, and the only way it really helps is 1) the stats are inordinately large 2) combined with notes I've taken and recent observations these are dynamite and 3) Often marginal decisions such as calldowns or value betting are helped tremendously if you have a huge sample size. Say you've got someone with a went to showdown stat of 65%, a huge VPIP and a small AF over 2000 hands. This makes a decision between checking between and value betting a good but not great hand easy.

Otherwise, I think that stats can often hurt more than they help if they are treated like the ten commandments and not combined with true observation. I think that's what Phosix meant in another post when he said PT could hurt your live game. Sure, if PA-Hud is all you use for reads, you'll be a virtual fish with no powers of discernment at a live table.

Re: AK unimproved, whats your play?
 

PAHUD/PT help with quickly identifying people who sit down at the table who I've played with before. I can recognize and associate live people, but online I only have some oftentimes random name by which to remember them. PT often jogs my memory as to the player who's sitting down.

PT stats are an excellent tool to describe a player, as per this forum. "Villian is laggy" is subjective and means different things to different people. "Villian is 56/14/2.8" paints a much more objective picture.

Most importantly, PT provides a statistical substantiation/counterpoint of what you're seeing. There are tons of times, especially when multitabling, where someone will do something that gets my attention and PT will help me decide how much I need to worry about it. Example: There's a bunch of betting and raising on a hand and Player A shows down 2nd pair. Was it likely he was trying to make a point against a specific opponent? Has he been overplaying hands all night and I just didn't notice? PT helps me with these questions.

I seldom make in-hand decisions where PT overrules my personal opinion of villian.

Maybe if I was single tabling in a live environment PT wouldn't help at all, but playing 6 or 7 times as many hands as live against a bunch of people who all "look" the same, PT is indispensible in helping put a personality on my opponents.