Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

Alright. I'm gonna preface this bold statement by saying that I'm a first time poster here and this is going to be long and semi detailed. I realize that the vast majority of people who view these posts are quite antagonistic to anyone who think that online poker is fixed, assuming that they are just ignorant morons and are thus easily dismissed. I also have no statistical data to back up my claim, making it even more ludicrous to the number crunching bunch that frequent this site. So go ahead and berate me if you wish, or preach to me about variance, I've heard it all before. I've had this discussion many many times with fellow friends and poker players, but I just thought it would be interesting to get my perspective out there to an international forum and see the kinds of responses I get from serious players.

A little about me: I'm a 20 year-old college student who has been playing online poker consistently for 3 years, primarily at Pokerstars. Since then I've profited an estimated 4-5 thousand dollars playing low stake SNG's and cash tables anywhere from .25/.50 to 3/6.

I want very much to believe that variance can account for the ridiculous swings I see while playing at Pokerstars but I simply can't get past certain "coincidences" that keep occurring again and again.

My main beef with Pokerstars are the ridiculous swings. Both good and bad. At first I would just complain about how absurd it was, and spout the platitude that the best hand always seems to get sucked out on by the idiot, they make the good players lose to the fish so that the fish don't go broke and they can keep getting action on their site, etc. While the underdog "seems to" win in unbelievable ways, especially when they're the chip leader, more than I think they should, I no longer argue this as my main point.

I eventually revised my belief to something along the lines of, "Pokerstars, in particular, or any other site for that matter, sends people on extremely hot streaks or extremely cold streaks that last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. These streaks are predetermined to occur and there is no way to avoid them no matter how you play your hands. You have to just wait them out if they're bad, or take advantage of them while you can if they're good."

Now all this seems like pretty much common sense. Either you're doing really well, or you're doing really poorly. It's gotta be one or the other right. My opinion is that these highs are so high to almost be unbelievable and the lows are equally as ridiculous.

I also believe that there are telltale signs that a good or bad streak is coming on that you should be attentive to so that you can prepare yourself for what will come next. I won't go into detail about them here, if you are interested you can read my blog at ZakKoeske.blogspot.com.

In any case, these streaks frequently occur suddenly, and are not independent of multitabling. What I mean is that, they carry over between tables if you are playing, say 4-5 tables at once. You will get astoundingly bad beats or have extremely good luck at all of your tables simultaneously even though they should be independent of one another.

When the bad streak hits, there is really nothing you can do. I play a tight aggressive style and have gotten so accustomed to terrible beats that I don't go on tilt. I originally would try to alter my play when I was running bad, but it always had the same effect, I'd lose. I either used an extremely aggressive approach, or an extremely tight and pasive approach. When playing aggressively, I might raise 20 times the big blind with AA, or even push all in pre flop even if blinds are 25/50 and i have 2000 chips in a SNG. Or overbet a flop an enormous amount when i flop top trips, never slowplaying because of the fear that something awful is about to happen and I will get sucked out on so I have to push everyone out of the pot. Unbelievably, this strategy seems to have the opposite effect. Someone always seems to call preflop with a low pocket pair, or AK, or QJ, whatever they do, it never fails to somehow outdraw my far superior hand. I'm not saying this happens 100% of the time. But when you're running really bad, i'd estimate its easily upwards of 75-80%. My other approach, was to play extremely passively when I'm running bad because I know that no matter what I have , it will lose. This approach often leads to you being blinded away, and at best finishing 2nd or 3rd, but never winning any tournaments. Plus, its extremely boring and you feel like a pussy. The only time I ever resort to this approach is when there is a particular player that I notice to be on an extremely hot streak at my table, for instance some idiot who has just won like 4 straight all ins with inferior hands who obviously doesn't know how to play. I will fold literally any hand in a situation where one player is dominating a SNG like that because challenging him is suicide. Your best bet is just waiting and hoping he takes everyone else out can squeak into the money somehow. I'm speaking strictly of online play of course. I wouldn't be afraid to challenge him in a live game. None of the things I am saying apply to live games.

Anyways, because neither strategy seems to do any good when youre running bad, I just play my normal game now. I just play tight/aggressive like I always do. However, if on the other hand I am running very hot, I do change up my style to some extent. Before I elaborate, let me explain what I say when I mean running really hot. I mean that you are the person who wins every hand at your SNG. If you raise pre flop, you always hit your pair(always meaning 75-80%) , or your trips. Everytime(meaning 75-80%) you have a draw, it hits. Also, during these streaks, you notice that even when you fold trashy hands like 3 7 offsuit, they will have made you full houses, or you drop pocket 5's because there are multiple reraises pre flop, it turns out you woulda flopped trips and quadrupled up. When I am on one of these unbelievable tears, I play much looser, will call extremely large bets on draws, and sometimes call with nothing simply under the assumption that the turn and river will win me the hand somehow. Now I don't play stupidly or extremely recklessly, I just take more chances. I do this at times because I have noticed certain patterns that emerge after playing for so long. For more detailed explanation of the patterns check my blog, but what I mean is that there are certain flops that become familiar after awhile. It's like you've seen them so many times before that you can predict what the turn and river will be with relative certainty. I no longer play cash tables(too risky to do without an enormous bankroll if youre on a cold streak), but when I did, i would often make calls with bottom pair on flops that I sensed were familiar because I had the predilection that the turn would make me 3 of a kind or two pair. More often than not I would be paid off by making these "crazy" moves. I can't explain it other than that my brain had grown accustomed to seeing certain flops in some innate way that I can't explain, but whatever it was, I would sense familiarity and could guess the next cards with decent accuracy.

While these "familiar" flops can help make you money, they can also help you avoid money if you can detect them when you'll lose, (like when you have the best hand). For instance, a common occurrence is holding AA or KK.. going all in pre flop and getting called.. You flop trips. Let's say you hold AA and your opponent has KQ..The flop is A 10 3. I would be hard pressed to find a time when a J doesn't hit on the turn or river to make your opponent a straight. Or how about the times when you have AA vs A6 and the flop i something like 3 4 5. You can bet your ass that you're gonna see a 2 or a 7 coming there. These hands I just mentioned are hard to avoid losing money on if you're all in pre flop obviously. But when it can come in handy is before all your chips are in. Let's say you know you've had 4 really terrible beats in the last 5 minutes at all of your tables and you hold AA. You raise pre flop 5 times the big blind and get one caller. If the flop has an obvious flush or straight draw, or if the board pairs, be very wary. You'd think that when you've raised a lot pre flop and there is only one caller, he wouldn't be in there with 5 6 or 10 7 suited, or he wouldnt have called with A3 off suit. However, if you know pokerstars like I do, you better think again. The unthinkable is commonplace on this site. I can't even count the number of times I've had KK , raised pre flop, had one caller, and the flop was like J 4 4. And the guy had A4. Or maybe you have QQ, you raise and get called by 7 8 hearts and the flop is Q 5 3. 2 hearts. They invariably will call all in and hit their flush too. A lot of these hands I speak of are almost absurd to the point where it's as if they're rubbing it right in your face. Like in the hand I just described, where not only do you hold QQ, but you flop trips, and you still manage to lose to 7 8. Or the hand I mentioned earlier with AA flopping trips only to lose to a runner runner straight. So just in case you thought you were gonna play super tight and only push when you had an extremely strong hand and it couldn't possibly lose, think again. It will lose. When you're running terrible, the better your hand looks, all it means is that the bad beat youre gonna take will be that much more outrageous. Honestly, like I said before, I've tried playing it every way you can, and you just aren't gonna be able to win. The only solution is time time time. You have to wait it out and hope that it doesn't last too long.

Ok so on to my conclusion:

While beats like the ones I've mentioned are obviously possible, and over a large sample size extremely probable to occur from time to time. The frequency at which they happen, where you can continually predict what is coming next seems a bit absurd and unbelievable to me. I'm not a superstitious person in any respect. I've always loved keeping statistics and analyzing statistics of all kinds. My dad is a college research methods and statistics professor, so its clearly something I respect and attempt to understand. I'm definitely not any kind of authority or anything like that on statistics, but I'm just trying to explain that I'm not ignorant to them either and I am not into luck. However, despite all of this, I can't get past the absurdities I see on pokerstars. It just seems as if there is no in between. Either you are winning like crazy, or you can't win to save your life and at all 5 tables at once you take 10 beats within a 20 minute span that you would be hard pressed to see happen once in 50 hours of playing.

So many people ask me, why do I keep playing when I am so sure it's fixed? It's because I am making a profit, and I know that as long as i maximize the hot streaks when they come, and just deal with the cold streak and let them pass, accepting that I will lose with AA to AJ 4/5 times, then I still am making money.

So why would poker sites want to do something like this? Why hasn't anyone caught them? Your guess is as good as mine. My only explanation for why they havent been caught is that people haven't been looking at the right aspects of hands and testing them for statistical significance. Over a large sample size, the good and bad streaks average out and are not significant in and of themselves, but when viewed in succession, for instance the fact that you'll see 20 really bad beats in an hour.. do really well for a while and then see extremely similar bad beats occuring to you again 20 times in a row again. I wouldn't know how to test for something like this because I have no background in statistics. But it just seems like the continual occurrence of these unnatural streaks, and the fact that these streaks contain the same kinds of hands can't be legit. To answer my other question, I think sites might do something like this to create addicts. People who know they are good players but keep losing in horrendous ways are more likely to come back and keep playing because they "know" it can't last forever and that they should be winning, so they addictively keep playing and waiting for their "luck" to turn around. It also creates addicts out of bad players because they see their underdogs winning much more often than they should so they keep taking in money and betting increasingly stupidly in hopes that it will continue to pay off. When it does, they do great. When they hit a bad streak and start losing everything, they just want to keep playing in hope that they will hit that hot streak again. More often than not, that hot streak seems to take over from the bad streak just as the bankroll is about to hit 0. And the whole process repeats itself. People keep playing, the sites make bigger and bigger profits. Just an educated guess.

I could say a lot more and go into much more detail, and I may add an appendage to this later, but I'd like to see if anyone has actually read through this long ass post and has any comment to make about it. I look forward to the criticism.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

I thought my posts were long.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

OP was way too long to read, can someone tell me if this is an "online poker is rigged" post?

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
I might raise 20 times the big blind with AA, or even push all in pre flop even if blinds are 25/50 and i have 2000 chips in a SNG. Or overbet a flop an enormous amount when i flop top trips, never slowplaying because of the fear that something awful is about to happen and I will get sucked out on so I have to push everyone out of the pot. Unbelievably, this strategy seems to have the opposite effect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, that's pretty god damn unbelievable...

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

not quite.
only pokerstars is rigged. in it's own super-special unique way.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

I expected criticism and sarcasm, but I was hoping to spark a worthwhile discussion, not just smart remarks. I don't want to believe online poker is fixed, but time and time again I feel like I am left with no other choice but to question the validity of poker sites. Can someone who doesn't feel the need to be a smartass have this discussion with me? Enough people have their doubts about this that I feel like its a legitimate thing to discuss.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

It really is high time for an "Online poker is rigged" forum.
Let them complain on their own forum and trade their "evidence".
Please.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

All poker rooms are fixed and rigged and I hope they continue to rig them.

As for the post, I only hand it past the third sentence when I realized I had to read the entire book and passed out.

STEP AWAY FROM THE COFFEE

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Alright. I'm gonna preface this bold statement by saying that I'm a first time poster here and this is going to be long and semi detailed. I realize that the vast majority of people who view these posts are quite antagonistic to anyone who think that online poker is fixed, assuming that they are just ignorant morons and are thus easily dismissed. I also have no statistical data to back up my claim, making it even more ludicrous to the number crunching bunch that frequent this site. So go ahead and berate me if you wish, or preach to me about variance, I've heard it all before. I've had this discussion many many times with fellow friends and poker players, but I just thought it would be interesting to get my perspective out there to an international forum and see the kinds of responses I get from serious players.

A little about me: I'm a 20 year-old college student who has been playing online poker consistently for 3 years, primarily at Pokerstars. Since then I've profited an estimated 4-5 thousand dollars playing low stake SNG's and cash tables anywhere from .25/.50 to 3/6.

I want very much to believe that variance can account for the ridiculous swings I see while playing at Pokerstars but I simply can't get past certain "coincidences" that keep occurring again and again.

My main beef with Pokerstars are the ridiculous swings. Both good and bad. At first I would just complain about how absurd it was, and spout the platitude that the best hand always seems to get sucked out on by the idiot, they make the good players lose to the fish so that the fish don't go broke and they can keep getting action on their site, etc. While the underdog "seems to" win in unbelievable ways, especially when they're the chip leader, more than I think they should, I no longer argue this as my main point.

I eventually revised my belief to something along the lines of, "Pokerstars, in particular, or any other site for that matter, sends people on extremely hot streaks or extremely cold streaks that last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. These streaks are predetermined to occur and there is no way to avoid them no matter how you play your hands. You have to just wait them out if they're bad, or take advantage of them while you can if they're good."

Now all this seems like pretty much common sense. Either you're doing really well, or you're doing really poorly. It's gotta be one or the other right. My opinion is that these highs are so high to almost be unbelievable and the lows are equally as ridiculous.

I also believe that there are telltale signs that a good or bad streak is coming on that you should be attentive to so that you can prepare yourself for what will come next. I won't go into detail about them here, if you are interested you can read my blog at ZakKoeske.blogspot.com.

In any case, these streaks frequently occur suddenly, and are not independent of multitabling. What I mean is that, they carry over between tables if you are playing, say 4-5 tables at once. You will get astoundingly bad beats or have extremely good luck at all of your tables simultaneously even though they should be independent of one another.

When the bad streak hits, there is really nothing you can do. I play a tight aggressive style and have gotten so accustomed to terrible beats that I don't go on tilt. I originally would try to alter my play when I was running bad, but it always had the same effect, I'd lose. I either used an extremely aggressive approach, or an extremely tight and pasive approach. When playing aggressively, I might raise 20 times the big blind with AA, or even push all in pre flop even if blinds are 25/50 and i have 2000 chips in a SNG. Or overbet a flop an enormous amount when i flop top trips, never slowplaying because of the fear that something awful is about to happen and I will get sucked out on so I have to push everyone out of the pot. Unbelievably, this strategy seems to have the opposite effect. Someone always seems to call preflop with a low pocket pair, or AK, or QJ, whatever they do, it never fails to somehow outdraw my far superior hand. I'm not saying this happens 100% of the time. But when you're running really bad, i'd estimate its easily upwards of 75-80%. My other approach, was to play extremely passively when I'm running bad because I know that no matter what I have , it will lose. This approach often leads to you being blinded away, and at best finishing 2nd or 3rd, but never winning any tournaments. Plus, its extremely boring and you feel like a pussy. The only time I ever resort to this approach is when there is a particular player that I notice to be on an extremely hot streak at my table, for instance some idiot who has just won like 4 straight all ins with inferior hands who obviously doesn't know how to play. I will fold literally any hand in a situation where one player is dominating a SNG like that because challenging him is suicide. Your best bet is just waiting and hoping he takes everyone else out can squeak into the money somehow. I'm speaking strictly of online play of course. I wouldn't be afraid to challenge him in a live game. None of the things I am saying apply to live games.

Anyways, because neither strategy seems to do any good when youre running bad, I just play my normal game now. I just play tight/aggressive like I always do. However, if on the other hand I am running very hot, I do change up my style to some extent. Before I elaborate, let me explain what I say when I mean running really hot. I mean that you are the person who wins every hand at your SNG. If you raise pre flop, you always hit your pair(always meaning 75-80%) , or your trips. Everytime(meaning 75-80%) you have a draw, it hits. Also, during these streaks, you notice that even when you fold trashy hands like 3 7 offsuit, they will have made you full houses, or you drop pocket 5's because there are multiple reraises pre flop, it turns out you woulda flopped trips and quadrupled up. When I am on one of these unbelievable tears, I play much looser, will call extremely large bets on draws, and sometimes call with nothing simply under the assumption that the turn and river will win me the hand somehow. Now I don't play stupidly or extremely recklessly, I just take more chances. I do this at times because I have noticed certain patterns that emerge after playing for so long. For more detailed explanation of the patterns check my blog, but what I mean is that there are certain flops that become familiar after awhile. It's like you've seen them so many times before that you can predict what the turn and river will be with relative certainty. I no longer play cash tables(too risky to do without an enormous bankroll if youre on a cold streak), but when I did, i would often make calls with bottom pair on flops that I sensed were familiar because I had the predilection that the turn would make me 3 of a kind or two pair. More often than not I would be paid off by making these "crazy" moves. I can't explain it other than that my brain had grown accustomed to seeing certain flops in some innate way that I can't explain, but whatever it was, I would sense familiarity and could guess the next cards with decent accuracy.

While these "familiar" flops can help make you money, they can also help you avoid money if you can detect them when you'll lose, (like when you have the best hand). For instance, a common occurrence is holding AA or KK.. going all in pre flop and getting called.. You flop trips. Let's say you hold AA and your opponent has KQ..The flop is A 10 3. I would be hard pressed to find a time when a J doesn't hit on the turn or river to make your opponent a straight. Or how about the times when you have AA vs A6 and the flop i something like 3 4 5. You can bet your ass that you're gonna see a 2 or a 7 coming there. These hands I just mentioned are hard to avoid losing money on if you're all in pre flop obviously. But when it can come in handy is before all your chips are in. Let's say you know you've had 4 really terrible beats in the last 5 minutes at all of your tables and you hold AA. You raise pre flop 5 times the big blind and get one caller. If the flop has an obvious flush or straight draw, or if the board pairs, be very wary. You'd think that when you've raised a lot pre flop and there is only one caller, he wouldn't be in there with 5 6 or 10 7 suited, or he wouldnt have called with A3 off suit. However, if you know pokerstars like I do, you better think again. The unthinkable is commonplace on this site. I can't even count the number of times I've had KK , raised pre flop, had one caller, and the flop was like J 4 4. And the guy had A4. Or maybe you have QQ, you raise and get called by 7 8 hearts and the flop is Q 5 3. 2 hearts. They invariably will call all in and hit their flush too. A lot of these hands I speak of are almost absurd to the point where it's as if they're rubbing it right in your face. Like in the hand I just described, where not only do you hold QQ, but you flop trips, and you still manage to lose to 7 8. Or the hand I mentioned earlier with AA flopping trips only to lose to a runner runner straight. So just in case you thought you were gonna play super tight and only push when you had an extremely strong hand and it couldn't possibly lose, think again. It will lose. When you're running terrible, the better your hand looks, all it means is that the bad beat youre gonna take will be that much more outrageous. Honestly, like I said before, I've tried playing it every way you can, and you just aren't gonna be able to win. The only solution is time time time. You have to wait it out and hope that it doesn't last too long.

Ok so on to my conclusion:

While beats like the ones I've mentioned are obviously possible, and over a large sample size extremely probable to occur from time to time. The frequency at which they happen, where you can continually predict what is coming next seems a bit absurd and unbelievable to me. I'm not a superstitious person in any respect. I've always loved keeping statistics and analyzing statistics of all kinds. My dad is a college research methods and statistics professor, so its clearly something I respect and attempt to understand. I'm definitely not any kind of authority or anything like that on statistics, but I'm just trying to explain that I'm not ignorant to them either and I am not into luck. However, despite all of this, I can't get past the absurdities I see on pokerstars. It just seems as if there is no in between. Either you are winning like crazy, or you can't win to save your life and at all 5 tables at once you take 10 beats within a 20 minute span that you would be hard pressed to see happen once in 50 hours of playing.

So many people ask me, why do I keep playing when I am so sure it's fixed? It's because I am making a profit, and I know that as long as i maximize the hot streaks when they come, and just deal with the cold streak and let them pass, accepting that I will lose with AA to AJ 4/5 times, then I still am making money.

So why would poker sites want to do something like this? Why hasn't anyone caught them? Your guess is as good as mine. My only explanation for why they havent been caught is that people haven't been looking at the right aspects of hands and testing them for statistical significance. Over a large sample size, the good and bad streaks average out and are not significant in and of themselves, but when viewed in succession, for instance the fact that you'll see 20 really bad beats in an hour.. do really well for a while and then see extremely similar bad beats occuring to you again 20 times in a row again. I wouldn't know how to test for something like this because I have no background in statistics. But it just seems like the continual occurrence of these unnatural streaks, and the fact that these streaks contain the same kinds of hands can't be legit. To answer my other question, I think sites might do something like this to create addicts. People who know they are good players but keep losing in horrendous ways are more likely to come back and keep playing because they "know" it can't last forever and that they should be winning, so they addictively keep playing and waiting for their "luck" to turn around. It also creates addicts out of bad players because they see their underdogs winning much more often than they should so they keep taking in money and betting increasingly stupidly in hopes that it will continue to pay off. When it does, they do great. When they hit a bad streak and start losing everything, they just want to keep playing in hope that they will hit that hot streak again. More often than not, that hot streak seems to take over from the bad streak just as the bankroll is about to hit 0. And the whole process repeats itself. People keep playing, the sites make bigger and bigger profits. Just an educated guess.

I could say a lot more and go into much more detail, and I may add an appendage to this later, but I'd like to see if anyone has actually read through this long ass post and has any comment to make about it. I look forward to the criticism.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't read any of that.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
I could say a lot more and go into much more detail

[/ QUOTE ]
Please do.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
OP was way too long to read, can someone tell me if this is an "online poker is rigged" post?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

No proof, not states, no motive, loads of bad beats, but...

Yes.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Enough people have their doubts about this that I feel like its a legitimate thing to discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, how many people actually "do" believe it is rigged???

I skimmed you post- got most of the important bits out. I'm not doubting the results you experienced.

But after all is said and done, you have to ask yourself why in the world would a poker site want to rig the games???

They make amazingly good money as it is. Imagine it "actually" was rigged and you were the one to discover the cunning plan and tell everyone- suddenly Poker Stars is deserted- everyone leaves within a week. What then?

Would it really be worth their while?

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
I thought my posts were long.

[/ QUOTE ]

They are... and meaningful. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

They fixed it, its about time.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Alright. I'm gonna preface this bold statement by saying that I'm a first time poster here and this is going to be long and semi detailed. I realize that the vast majority of people who view these posts are quite antagonistic to anyone who think that online poker is fixed, assuming that they are just ignorant morons and are thus easily dismissed. I also have no statistical data to back up my claim, making it even more ludicrous to the number crunching bunch that frequent this site. So go ahead and berate me if you wish, or preach to me about variance, I've heard it all before. I've had this discussion many many times with fellow friends and poker players, but I just thought it would be interesting to get my perspective out there to an international forum and see the kinds of responses I get from serious players.

A little about me: I'm a 20 year-old college student who has been playing online poker consistently for 3 years, primarily at Pokerstars. Since then I've profited an estimated 4-5 thousand dollars playing low stake SNG's and cash tables anywhere from .25/.50 to 3/6.

I want very much to believe that variance can account for the ridiculous swings I see while playing at Pokerstars but I simply can't get past certain "coincidences" that keep occurring again and again.

My main beef with Pokerstars are the ridiculous swings. Both good and bad. At first I would just complain about how absurd it was, and spout the platitude that the best hand always seems to get sucked out on by the idiot, they make the good players lose to the fish so that the fish don't go broke and they can keep getting action on their site, etc. While the underdog "seems to" win in unbelievable ways, especially when they're the chip leader, more than I think they should, I no longer argue this as my main point.

I eventually revised my belief to something along the lines of, "Pokerstars, in particular, or any other site for that matter, sends people on extremely hot streaks or extremely cold streaks that last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. These streaks are predetermined to occur and there is no way to avoid them no matter how you play your hands. You have to just wait them out if they're bad, or take advantage of them while you can if they're good."

Now all this seems like pretty much common sense. Either you're doing really well, or you're doing really poorly. It's gotta be one or the other right. My opinion is that these highs are so high to almost be unbelievable and the lows are equally as ridiculous.

I also believe that there are telltale signs that a good or bad streak is coming on that you should be attentive to so that you can prepare yourself for what will come next. I won't go into detail about them here, if you are interested you can read my blog at ZakKoeske.blogspot.com.

In any case, these streaks frequently occur suddenly, and are not independent of multitabling. What I mean is that, they carry over between tables if you are playing, say 4-5 tables at once. You will get astoundingly bad beats or have extremely good luck at all of your tables simultaneously even though they should be independent of one another.

When the bad streak hits, there is really nothing you can do. I play a tight aggressive style and have gotten so accustomed to terrible beats that I don't go on tilt. I originally would try to alter my play when I was running bad, but it always had the same effect, I'd lose. I either used an extremely aggressive approach, or an extremely tight and pasive approach. When playing aggressively, I might raise 20 times the big blind with AA, or even push all in pre flop even if blinds are 25/50 and i have 2000 chips in a SNG. Or overbet a flop an enormous amount when i flop top trips, never slowplaying because of the fear that something awful is about to happen and I will get sucked out on so I have to push everyone out of the pot. Unbelievably, this strategy seems to have the opposite effect. Someone always seems to call preflop with a low pocket pair, or AK, or QJ, whatever they do, it never fails to somehow outdraw my far superior hand. I'm not saying this happens 100% of the time. But when you're running really bad, i'd estimate its easily upwards of 75-80%. My other approach, was to play extremely passively when I'm running bad because I know that no matter what I have , it will lose. This approach often leads to you being blinded away, and at best finishing 2nd or 3rd, but never winning any tournaments. Plus, its extremely boring and you feel like a pussy. The only time I ever resort to this approach is when there is a particular player that I notice to be on an extremely hot streak at my table, for instance some idiot who has just won like 4 straight all ins with inferior hands who obviously doesn't know how to play. I will fold literally any hand in a situation where one player is dominating a SNG like that because challenging him is suicide. Your best bet is just waiting and hoping he takes everyone else out can squeak into the money somehow. I'm speaking strictly of online play of course. I wouldn't be afraid to challenge him in a live game. None of the things I am saying apply to live games.

Anyways, because neither strategy seems to do any good when youre running bad, I just play my normal game now. I just play tight/aggressive like I always do. However, if on the other hand I am running very hot, I do change up my style to some extent. Before I elaborate, let me explain what I say when I mean running really hot. I mean that you are the person who wins every hand at your SNG. If you raise pre flop, you always hit your pair(always meaning 75-80%) , or your trips. Everytime(meaning 75-80%) you have a draw, it hits. Also, during these streaks, you notice that even when you fold trashy hands like 3 7 offsuit, they will have made you full houses, or you drop pocket 5's because there are multiple reraises pre flop, it turns out you woulda flopped trips and quadrupled up. When I am on one of these unbelievable tears, I play much looser, will call extremely large bets on draws, and sometimes call with nothing simply under the assumption that the turn and river will win me the hand somehow. Now I don't play stupidly or extremely recklessly, I just take more chances. I do this at times because I have noticed certain patterns that emerge after playing for so long. For more detailed explanation of the patterns check my blog, but what I mean is that there are certain flops that become familiar after awhile. It's like you've seen them so many times before that you can predict what the turn and river will be with relative certainty. I no longer play cash tables(too risky to do without an enormous bankroll if youre on a cold streak), but when I did, i would often make calls with bottom pair on flops that I sensed were familiar because I had the predilection that the turn would make me 3 of a kind or two pair. More often than not I would be paid off by making these "crazy" moves. I can't explain it other than that my brain had grown accustomed to seeing certain flops in some innate way that I can't explain, but whatever it was, I would sense familiarity and could guess the next cards with decent accuracy.

While these "familiar" flops can help make you money, they can also help you avoid money if you can detect them when you'll lose, (like when you have the best hand). For instance, a common occurrence is holding AA or KK.. going all in pre flop and getting called.. You flop trips. Let's say you hold AA and your opponent has KQ..The flop is A 10 3. I would be hard pressed to find a time when a J doesn't hit on the turn or river to make your opponent a straight. Or how about the times when you have AA vs A6 and the flop i something like 3 4 5. You can bet your ass that you're gonna see a 2 or a 7 coming there. These hands I just mentioned are hard to avoid losing money on if you're all in pre flop obviously. But when it can come in handy is before all your chips are in. Let's say you know you've had 4 really terrible beats in the last 5 minutes at all of your tables and you hold AA. You raise pre flop 5 times the big blind and get one caller. If the flop has an obvious flush or straight draw, or if the board pairs, be very wary. You'd think that when you've raised a lot pre flop and there is only one caller, he wouldn't be in there with 5 6 or 10 7 suited, or he wouldnt have called with A3 off suit. However, if you know pokerstars like I do, you better think again. The unthinkable is commonplace on this site. I can't even count the number of times I've had KK , raised pre flop, had one caller, and the flop was like J 4 4. And the guy had A4. Or maybe you have QQ, you raise and get called by 7 8 hearts and the flop is Q 5 3. 2 hearts. They invariably will call all in and hit their flush too. A lot of these hands I speak of are almost absurd to the point where it's as if they're rubbing it right in your face. Like in the hand I just described, where not only do you hold QQ, but you flop trips, and you still manage to lose to 7 8. Or the hand I mentioned earlier with AA flopping trips only to lose to a runner runner straight. So just in case you thought you were gonna play super tight and only push when you had an extremely strong hand and it couldn't possibly lose, think again. It will lose. When you're running terrible, the better your hand looks, all it means is that the bad beat youre gonna take will be that much more outrageous. Honestly, like I said before, I've tried playing it every way you can, and you just aren't gonna be able to win. The only solution is time time time. You have to wait it out and hope that it doesn't last too long.

Ok so on to my conclusion:

While beats like the ones I've mentioned are obviously possible, and over a large sample size extremely probable to occur from time to time. The frequency at which they happen, where you can continually predict what is coming next seems a bit absurd and unbelievable to me. I'm not a superstitious person in any respect. I've always loved keeping statistics and analyzing statistics of all kinds. My dad is a college research methods and statistics professor, so its clearly something I respect and attempt to understand. I'm definitely not any kind of authority or anything like that on statistics, but I'm just trying to explain that I'm not ignorant to them either and I am not into luck. However, despite all of this, I can't get past the absurdities I see on pokerstars. It just seems as if there is no in between. Either you are winning like crazy, or you can't win to save your life and at all 5 tables at once you take 10 beats within a 20 minute span that you would be hard pressed to see happen once in 50 hours of playing.

So many people ask me, why do I keep playing when I am so sure it's fixed? It's because I am making a profit, and I know that as long as i maximize the hot streaks when they come, and just deal with the cold streak and let them pass, accepting that I will lose with AA to AJ 4/5 times, then I still am making money.

So why would poker sites want to do something like this? Why hasn't anyone caught them? Your guess is as good as mine. My only explanation for why they havent been caught is that people haven't been looking at the right aspects of hands and testing them for statistical significance. Over a large sample size, the good and bad streaks average out and are not significant in and of themselves, but when viewed in succession, for instance the fact that you'll see 20 really bad beats in an hour.. do really well for a while and then see extremely similar bad beats occuring to you again 20 times in a row again. I wouldn't know how to test for something like this because I have no background in statistics. But it just seems like the continual occurrence of these unnatural streaks, and the fact that these streaks contain the same kinds of hands can't be legit. To answer my other question, I think sites might do something like this to create addicts. People who know they are good players but keep losing in horrendous ways are more likely to come back and keep playing because they "know" it can't last forever and that they should be winning, so they addictively keep playing and waiting for their "luck" to turn around. It also creates addicts out of bad players because they see their underdogs winning much more often than they should so they keep taking in money and betting increasingly stupidly in hopes that it will continue to pay off. When it does, they do great. When they hit a bad streak and start losing everything, they just want to keep playing in hope that they will hit that hot streak again. More often than not, that hot streak seems to take over from the bad streak just as the bankroll is about to hit 0. And the whole process repeats itself. People keep playing, the sites make bigger and bigger profits. Just an educated guess.

I could say a lot more and go into much more detail, and I may add an appendage to this later, but I'd like to see if anyone has actually read through this long ass post and has any comment to make about it. I look forward to the criticism.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't read any of that.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you for providing the opportunity to not read it twice.

chez

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

i hope you guys read his informative blog, featuring giant paragraphs of unreadable nonsense (i assume).

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

At the risk of being blacklisted by the rest of the community I will give an actual thought out (sort of) response, mostly because I'm at work and very bored.

3-4 months ago I would have completely agreed with you but I was a weak-tight fish then. I've read HoH 1 and am currently working on #2 right now + scouring this site to learn, together these have helped me a ton - but I am quite a novice in comparison to the majority of people here.

When I started playing in MTT's I got some serious "beginners luck". In my 1st 10 tourneys I placed ITM 5 times (9th,13th,50th,6th & 2nd - all donkaments) and immediately had a much bigger BR. I honestly at this point cannot explain these results because, in hindsight, I wasn't really very good - I just got great cards???
Then I was hooked on trying to duplicate the big scores without much success. After realzing that I wasn't as good as I initially thought I started playing 45 man SnG's in an attempt to improve my tourney play, pretty much exact same result. In the first dozen I was ITM every other SnG.
Regularly when I check out someone on the DB I will see the same thing, a few big scores early on and not much after that.
This would lead me to believe that there may be some sort of luck factor. If only 10% of the people playing online are actual winners then this would be a way to help keep the %90 losers around.

When it gets heads up regularly the person with the worst hand will suck out and win. This may be because the hand algorithm is so advanced that it tries to make up for the lesser hand to make it competitive but regualarly goes too far?

Anytime I have taken a break and then gone back I have run extremely well, is this because I was fresh or is it because I've been gone for a while and pokerstars wants to get me back again?

Any time I have had to reload I have run extremely well - points back to luck factor?


While I don't actually believe any of all that it may help you in your quest to prove that online poker is rigged.
Which, if you do happen to prove, please PM me so I can stop wasting time trying to improve my game.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Alright. I'm gonna preface this bold statement by saying that I'm a first time poster here and this is going to be long and semi detailed. I realize that the vast majority of people who view these posts are quite antagonistic to anyone who think that online poker is fixed, assuming that they are just ignorant morons and are thus easily dismissed. I also have no statistical data to back up my claim, making it even more ludicrous to the number crunching bunch that frequent this site. So go ahead and berate me if you wish, or preach to me about variance, I've heard it all before. I've had this discussion many many times with fellow friends and poker players, but I just thought it would be interesting to get my perspective out there to an international forum and see the kinds of responses I get from serious players.

A little about me: I'm a 20 year-old college student who has been playing online poker consistently for 3 years, primarily at Pokerstars. Since then I've profited an estimated 4-5 thousand dollars playing low stake SNG's and cash tables anywhere from .25/.50 to 3/6.

I want very much to believe that variance can account for the ridiculous swings I see while playing at Pokerstars but I simply can't get past certain "coincidences" that keep occurring again and again.

My main beef with Pokerstars are the ridiculous swings. Both good and bad. At first I would just complain about how absurd it was, and spout the platitude that the best hand always seems to get sucked out on by the idiot, they make the good players lose to the fish so that the fish don't go broke and they can keep getting action on their site, etc. While the underdog "seems to" win in unbelievable ways, especially when they're the chip leader, more than I think they should, I no longer argue this as my main point.

I eventually revised my belief to something along the lines of, "Pokerstars, in particular, or any other site for that matter, sends people on extremely hot streaks or extremely cold streaks that last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. These streaks are predetermined to occur and there is no way to avoid them no matter how you play your hands. You have to just wait them out if they're bad, or take advantage of them while you can if they're good."

Now all this seems like pretty much common sense. Either you're doing really well, or you're doing really poorly. It's gotta be one or the other right. My opinion is that these highs are so high to almost be unbelievable and the lows are equally as ridiculous.

I also believe that there are telltale signs that a good or bad streak is coming on that you should be attentive to so that you can prepare yourself for what will come next. I won't go into detail about them here, if you are interested you can read my blog at ZakKoeske.blogspot.com.

In any case, these streaks frequently occur suddenly, and are not independent of multitabling. What I mean is that, they carry over between tables if you are playing, say 4-5 tables at once. You will get astoundingly bad beats or have extremely good luck at all of your tables simultaneously even though they should be independent of one another.

When the bad streak hits, there is really nothing you can do. I play a tight aggressive style and have gotten so accustomed to terrible beats that I don't go on tilt. I originally would try to alter my play when I was running bad, but it always had the same effect, I'd lose. I either used an extremely aggressive approach, or an extremely tight and pasive approach. When playing aggressively, I might raise 20 times the big blind with AA, or even push all in pre flop even if blinds are 25/50 and i have 2000 chips in a SNG. Or overbet a flop an enormous amount when i flop top trips, never slowplaying because of the fear that something awful is about to happen and I will get sucked out on so I have to push everyone out of the pot. Unbelievably, this strategy seems to have the opposite effect. Someone always seems to call preflop with a low pocket pair, or AK, or QJ, whatever they do, it never fails to somehow outdraw my far superior hand. I'm not saying this happens 100% of the time. But when you're running really bad, i'd estimate its easily upwards of 75-80%. My other approach, was to play extremely passively when I'm running bad because I know that no matter what I have , it will lose. This approach often leads to you being blinded away, and at best finishing 2nd or 3rd, but never winning any tournaments. Plus, its extremely boring and you feel like a pussy. The only time I ever resort to this approach is when there is a particular player that I notice to be on an extremely hot streak at my table, for instance some idiot who has just won like 4 straight all ins with inferior hands who obviously doesn't know how to play. I will fold literally any hand in a situation where one player is dominating a SNG like that because challenging him is suicide. Your best bet is just waiting and hoping he takes everyone else out can squeak into the money somehow. I'm speaking strictly of online play of course. I wouldn't be afraid to challenge him in a live game. None of the things I am saying apply to live games.

Anyways, because neither strategy seems to do any good when youre running bad, I just play my normal game now. I just play tight/aggressive like I always do. However, if on the other hand I am running very hot, I do change up my style to some extent. Before I elaborate, let me explain what I say when I mean running really hot. I mean that you are the person who wins every hand at your SNG. If you raise pre flop, you always hit your pair(always meaning 75-80%) , or your trips. Everytime(meaning 75-80%) you have a draw, it hits. Also, during these streaks, you notice that even when you fold trashy hands like 3 7 offsuit, they will have made you full houses, or you drop pocket 5's because there are multiple reraises pre flop, it turns out you woulda flopped trips and quadrupled up. When I am on one of these unbelievable tears, I play much looser, will call extremely large bets on draws, and sometimes call with nothing simply under the assumption that the turn and river will win me the hand somehow. Now I don't play stupidly or extremely recklessly, I just take more chances. I do this at times because I have noticed certain patterns that emerge after playing for so long. For more detailed explanation of the patterns check my blog, but what I mean is that there are certain flops that become familiar after awhile. It's like you've seen them so many times before that you can predict what the turn and river will be with relative certainty. I no longer play cash tables(too risky to do without an enormous bankroll if youre on a cold streak), but when I did, i would often make calls with bottom pair on flops that I sensed were familiar because I had the predilection that the turn would make me 3 of a kind or two pair. More often than not I would be paid off by making these "crazy" moves. I can't explain it other than that my brain had grown accustomed to seeing certain flops in some innate way that I can't explain, but whatever it was, I would sense familiarity and could guess the next cards with decent accuracy.

While these "familiar" flops can help make you money, they can also help you avoid money if you can detect them when you'll lose, (like when you have the best hand). For instance, a common occurrence is holding AA or KK.. going all in pre flop and getting called.. You flop trips. Let's say you hold AA and your opponent has KQ..The flop is A 10 3. I would be hard pressed to find a time when a J doesn't hit on the turn or river to make your opponent a straight. Or how about the times when you have AA vs A6 and the flop i something like 3 4 5. You can bet your ass that you're gonna see a 2 or a 7 coming there. These hands I just mentioned are hard to avoid losing money on if you're all in pre flop obviously. But when it can come in handy is before all your chips are in. Let's say you know you've had 4 really terrible beats in the last 5 minutes at all of your tables and you hold AA. You raise pre flop 5 times the big blind and get one caller. If the flop has an obvious flush or straight draw, or if the board pairs, be very wary. You'd think that when you've raised a lot pre flop and there is only one caller, he wouldn't be in there with 5 6 or 10 7 suited, or he wouldnt have called with A3 off suit. However, if you know pokerstars like I do, you better think again. The unthinkable is commonplace on this site. I can't even count the number of times I've had KK , raised pre flop, had one caller, and the flop was like J 4 4. And the guy had A4. Or maybe you have QQ, you raise and get called by 7 8 hearts and the flop is Q 5 3. 2 hearts. They invariably will call all in and hit their flush too. A lot of these hands I speak of are almost absurd to the point where it's as if they're rubbing it right in your face. Like in the hand I just described, where not only do you hold QQ, but you flop trips, and you still manage to lose to 7 8. Or the hand I mentioned earlier with AA flopping trips only to lose to a runner runner straight. So just in case you thought you were gonna play super tight and only push when you had an extremely strong hand and it couldn't possibly lose, think again. It will lose. When you're running terrible, the better your hand looks, all it means is that the bad beat youre gonna take will be that much more outrageous. Honestly, like I said before, I've tried playing it every way you can, and you just aren't gonna be able to win. The only solution is time time time. You have to wait it out and hope that it doesn't last too long.

Ok so on to my conclusion:

While beats like the ones I've mentioned are obviously possible, and over a large sample size extremely probable to occur from time to time. The frequency at which they happen, where you can continually predict what is coming next seems a bit absurd and unbelievable to me. I'm not a superstitious person in any respect. I've always loved keeping statistics and analyzing statistics of all kinds. My dad is a college research methods and statistics professor, so its clearly something I respect and attempt to understand. I'm definitely not any kind of authority or anything like that on statistics, but I'm just trying to explain that I'm not ignorant to them either and I am not into luck. However, despite all of this, I can't get past the absurdities I see on pokerstars. It just seems as if there is no in between. Either you are winning like crazy, or you can't win to save your life and at all 5 tables at once you take 10 beats within a 20 minute span that you would be hard pressed to see happen once in 50 hours of playing.

So many people ask me, why do I keep playing when I am so sure it's fixed? It's because I am making a profit, and I know that as long as i maximize the hot streaks when they come, and just deal with the cold streak and let them pass, accepting that I will lose with AA to AJ 4/5 times, then I still am making money.

So why would poker sites want to do something like this? Why hasn't anyone caught them? Your guess is as good as mine. My only explanation for why they havent been caught is that people haven't been looking at the right aspects of hands and testing them for statistical significance. Over a large sample size, the good and bad streaks average out and are not significant in and of themselves, but when viewed in succession, for instance the fact that you'll see 20 really bad beats in an hour.. do really well for a while and then see extremely similar bad beats occuring to you again 20 times in a row again. I wouldn't know how to test for something like this because I have no background in statistics. But it just seems like the continual occurrence of these unnatural streaks, and the fact that these streaks contain the same kinds of hands can't be legit. To answer my other question, I think sites might do something like this to create addicts. People who know they are good players but keep losing in horrendous ways are more likely to come back and keep playing because they "know" it can't last forever and that they should be winning, so they addictively keep playing and waiting for their "luck" to turn around. It also creates addicts out of bad players because they see their underdogs winning much more often than they should so they keep taking in money and betting increasingly stupidly in hopes that it will continue to pay off. When it does, they do great. When they hit a bad streak and start losing everything, they just want to keep playing in hope that they will hit that hot streak again. More often than not, that hot streak seems to take over from the bad streak just as the bankroll is about to hit 0. And the whole process repeats itself. People keep playing, the sites make bigger and bigger profits. Just an educated guess.

I could say a lot more and go into much more detail, and I may add an appendage to this later, but I'd like to see if anyone has actually read through this long ass post and has any comment to make about it. I look forward to the criticism.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't read any of that.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you for providing the opportunity to not read it twice.

chez

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't read it either.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

tl;dr

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Alright. I'm gonna preface this bold statement by saying that I'm a first time poster here and this is going to be long and semi detailed. I realize that the vast majority of people who view these posts are quite antagonistic to anyone who think that online poker is fixed, assuming that they are just ignorant morons and are thus easily dismissed. I also have no statistical data to back up my claim, making it even more ludicrous to the number crunching bunch that frequent this site. So go ahead and berate me if you wish, or preach to me about variance, I've heard it all before. I've had this discussion many many times with fellow friends and poker players, but I just thought it would be interesting to get my perspective out there to an international forum and see the kinds of responses I get from serious players.

A little about me: I'm a 20 year-old college student who has been playing online poker consistently for 3 years, primarily at Pokerstars. Since then I've profited an estimated 4-5 thousand dollars playing low stake SNG's and cash tables anywhere from .25/.50 to 3/6.

I want very much to believe that variance can account for the ridiculous swings I see while playing at Pokerstars but I simply can't get past certain "coincidences" that keep occurring again and again.

My main beef with Pokerstars are the ridiculous swings. Both good and bad. At first I would just complain about how absurd it was, and spout the platitude that the best hand always seems to get sucked out on by the idiot, they make the good players lose to the fish so that the fish don't go broke and they can keep getting action on their site, etc. While the underdog "seems to" win in unbelievable ways, especially when they're the chip leader, more than I think they should, I no longer argue this as my main point.

I eventually revised my belief to something along the lines of, "Pokerstars, in particular, or any other site for that matter, sends people on extremely hot streaks or extremely cold streaks that last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. These streaks are predetermined to occur and there is no way to avoid them no matter how you play your hands. You have to just wait them out if they're bad, or take advantage of them while you can if they're good."

Now all this seems like pretty much common sense. Either you're doing really well, or you're doing really poorly. It's gotta be one or the other right. My opinion is that these highs are so high to almost be unbelievable and the lows are equally as ridiculous.

I also believe that there are telltale signs that a good or bad streak is coming on that you should be attentive to so that you can prepare yourself for what will come next. I won't go into detail about them here, if you are interested you can read my blog at ZakKoeske.blogspot.com.

In any case, these streaks frequently occur suddenly, and are not independent of multitabling. What I mean is that, they carry over between tables if you are playing, say 4-5 tables at once. You will get astoundingly bad beats or have extremely good luck at all of your tables simultaneously even though they should be independent of one another.

When the bad streak hits, there is really nothing you can do. I play a tight aggressive style and have gotten so accustomed to terrible beats that I don't go on tilt. I originally would try to alter my play when I was running bad, but it always had the same effect, I'd lose. I either used an extremely aggressive approach, or an extremely tight and pasive approach. When playing aggressively, I might raise 20 times the big blind with AA, or even push all in pre flop even if blinds are 25/50 and i have 2000 chips in a SNG. Or overbet a flop an enormous amount when i flop top trips, never slowplaying because of the fear that something awful is about to happen and I will get sucked out on so I have to push everyone out of the pot. Unbelievably, this strategy seems to have the opposite effect. Someone always seems to call preflop with a low pocket pair, or AK, or QJ, whatever they do, it never fails to somehow outdraw my far superior hand. I'm not saying this happens 100% of the time. But when you're running really bad, i'd estimate its easily upwards of 75-80%. My other approach, was to play extremely passively when I'm running bad because I know that no matter what I have , it will lose. This approach often leads to you being blinded away, and at best finishing 2nd or 3rd, but never winning any tournaments. Plus, its extremely boring and you feel like a pussy. The only time I ever resort to this approach is when there is a particular player that I notice to be on an extremely hot streak at my table, for instance some idiot who has just won like 4 straight all ins with inferior hands who obviously doesn't know how to play. I will fold literally any hand in a situation where one player is dominating a SNG like that because challenging him is suicide. Your best bet is just waiting and hoping he takes everyone else out can squeak into the money somehow. I'm speaking strictly of online play of course. I wouldn't be afraid to challenge him in a live game. None of the things I am saying apply to live games.

Anyways, because neither strategy seems to do any good when youre running bad, I just play my normal game now. I just play tight/aggressive like I always do. However, if on the other hand I am running very hot, I do change up my style to some extent. Before I elaborate, let me explain what I say when I mean running really hot. I mean that you are the person who wins every hand at your SNG. If you raise pre flop, you always hit your pair(always meaning 75-80%) , or your trips. Everytime(meaning 75-80%) you have a draw, it hits. Also, during these streaks, you notice that even when you fold trashy hands like 3 7 offsuit, they will have made you full houses, or you drop pocket 5's because there are multiple reraises pre flop, it turns out you woulda flopped trips and quadrupled up. When I am on one of these unbelievable tears, I play much looser, will call extremely large bets on draws, and sometimes call with nothing simply under the assumption that the turn and river will win me the hand somehow. Now I don't play stupidly or extremely recklessly, I just take more chances. I do this at times because I have noticed certain patterns that emerge after playing for so long. For more detailed explanation of the patterns check my blog, but what I mean is that there are certain flops that become familiar after awhile. It's like you've seen them so many times before that you can predict what the turn and river will be with relative certainty. I no longer play cash tables(too risky to do without an enormous bankroll if youre on a cold streak), but when I did, i would often make calls with bottom pair on flops that I sensed were familiar because I had the predilection that the turn would make me 3 of a kind or two pair. More often than not I would be paid off by making these "crazy" moves. I can't explain it other than that my brain had grown accustomed to seeing certain flops in some innate way that I can't explain, but whatever it was, I would sense familiarity and could guess the next cards with decent accuracy.

While these "familiar" flops can help make you money, they can also help you avoid money if you can detect them when you'll lose, (like when you have the best hand). For instance, a common occurrence is holding AA or KK.. going all in pre flop and getting called.. You flop trips. Let's say you hold AA and your opponent has KQ..The flop is A 10 3. I would be hard pressed to find a time when a J doesn't hit on the turn or river to make your opponent a straight. Or how about the times when you have AA vs A6 and the flop i something like 3 4 5. You can bet your ass that you're gonna see a 2 or a 7 coming there. These hands I just mentioned are hard to avoid losing money on if you're all in pre flop obviously. But when it can come in handy is before all your chips are in. Let's say you know you've had 4 really terrible beats in the last 5 minutes at all of your tables and you hold AA. You raise pre flop 5 times the big blind and get one caller. If the flop has an obvious flush or straight draw, or if the board pairs, be very wary. You'd think that when you've raised a lot pre flop and there is only one caller, he wouldn't be in there with 5 6 or 10 7 suited, or he wouldnt have called with A3 off suit. However, if you know pokerstars like I do, you better think again. The unthinkable is commonplace on this site. I can't even count the number of times I've had KK , raised pre flop, had one caller, and the flop was like J 4 4. And the guy had A4. Or maybe you have QQ, you raise and get called by 7 8 hearts and the flop is Q 5 3. 2 hearts. They invariably will call all in and hit their flush too. A lot of these hands I speak of are almost absurd to the point where it's as if they're rubbing it right in your face. Like in the hand I just described, where not only do you hold QQ, but you flop trips, and you still manage to lose to 7 8. Or the hand I mentioned earlier with AA flopping trips only to lose to a runner runner straight. So just in case you thought you were gonna play super tight and only push when you had an extremely strong hand and it couldn't possibly lose, think again. It will lose. When you're running terrible, the better your hand looks, all it means is that the bad beat youre gonna take will be that much more outrageous. Honestly, like I said before, I've tried playing it every way you can, and you just aren't gonna be able to win. The only solution is time time time. You have to wait it out and hope that it doesn't last too long.

Ok so on to my conclusion:

While beats like the ones I've mentioned are obviously possible, and over a large sample size extremely probable to occur from time to time. The frequency at which they happen, where you can continually predict what is coming next seems a bit absurd and unbelievable to me. I'm not a superstitious person in any respect. I've always loved keeping statistics and analyzing statistics of all kinds. My dad is a college research methods and statistics professor, so its clearly something I respect and attempt to understand. I'm definitely not any kind of authority or anything like that on statistics, but I'm just trying to explain that I'm not ignorant to them either and I am not into luck. However, despite all of this, I can't get past the absurdities I see on pokerstars. It just seems as if there is no in between. Either you are winning like crazy, or you can't win to save your life and at all 5 tables at once you take 10 beats within a 20 minute span that you would be hard pressed to see happen once in 50 hours of playing.

So many people ask me, why do I keep playing when I am so sure it's fixed? It's because I am making a profit, and I know that as long as i maximize the hot streaks when they come, and just deal with the cold streak and let them pass, accepting that I will lose with AA to AJ 4/5 times, then I still am making money.

So why would poker sites want to do something like this? Why hasn't anyone caught them? Your guess is as good as mine. My only explanation for why they havent been caught is that people haven't been looking at the right aspects of hands and testing them for statistical significance. Over a large sample size, the good and bad streaks average out and are not significant in and of themselves, but when viewed in succession, for instance the fact that you'll see 20 really bad beats in an hour.. do really well for a while and then see extremely similar bad beats occuring to you again 20 times in a row again. I wouldn't know how to test for something like this because I have no background in statistics. But it just seems like the continual occurrence of these unnatural streaks, and the fact that these streaks contain the same kinds of hands can't be legit. To answer my other question, I think sites might do something like this to create addicts. People who know they are good players but keep losing in horrendous ways are more likely to come back and keep playing because they "know" it can't last forever and that they should be winning, so they addictively keep playing and waiting for their "luck" to turn around. It also creates addicts out of bad players because they see their underdogs winning much more often than they should so they keep taking in money and betting increasingly stupidly in hopes that it will continue to pay off. When it does, they do great. When they hit a bad streak and start losing everything, they just want to keep playing in hope that they will hit that hot streak again. More often than not, that hot streak seems to take over from the bad streak just as the bankroll is about to hit 0. And the whole process repeats itself. People keep playing, the sites make bigger and bigger profits. Just an educated guess.

I could say a lot more and go into much more detail, and I may add an appendage to this later, but I'd like to see if anyone has actually read through this long ass post and has any comment to make about it. I look forward to the criticism.

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I didn't read any of that.

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Thank you for providing the opportunity to not read it twice.

chez

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i didn't read it either.

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I read all the quotes, I even read mine twice, but I still didn't read anything else.

Microbob is cool.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

i agree whith you PokerPlan, i don't think online poker is rigged. But your proof is not sufficient anyway. here is a counterexmaple:
in france, there is a national company which organize the "lotery" and manages all other "luck games" to scratch ...each week they gain thousands millions euros. they don't need to rig anything. but they recently have been condamned by a tribunal because they actually rigged one of their games (where u have to sratch a piece of peper to discover "you win" or "you loose") and it didn't appear until someone proved it. they rigged it. a so respectable "institution" which plays whith ppl money all year long rigged their games.it is possible.
just wanted to point it happens sometimes.

very sorry for the so bad english i am speaking, but i hope you understood me a bit.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

Do you have even the tinest hint of evidence, or are you just spewing meaningless anecdotes?

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

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I expected criticism and sarcasm, but I was hoping to spark a worthwhile discussion, not just smart remarks. I don't want to believe online poker is fixed, but time and time again I feel like I am left with no other choice but to question the validity of poker sites. Can someone who doesn't feel the need to be a smartass have this discussion with me? Enough people have their doubts about this that I feel like its a legitimate thing to discuss.

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Well, if you start by stating that you have no statistical data, we must presume this is just selective memory. Do you have PokerTracker? If so, post your info for AA. How many times, and what percentage are you winning with. The more times you get it, the closer that percentage will approach 80%. If not, show us a large sample of hands where you're at 20% or something like that, and we'll have something to discuss. Until that time, sounds like selective memory.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

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very sorry for the so bad english i am speaking, but i hope you understood me a bit.

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Your English is fine- well understood.

Interesting to hear about the lottery company that rigged the scratch cards. But the underlying question still has to be "For what reason"- there has to be a big reward to justify the huge risk of "loss of reputation".

The fact that poker sites readily offer you hand history files to obleviate fears of "rigging"- should demonstrate the importance they place on providing a fair game.

Thinks of the hug amount of money an employee could make if they could sell their story of "online poker site rigging", or if it is rigged- I am sure some "insider" would have tried to expoliot their finding. But it just hasn't happened.

Ian

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

Go to a casino and play live. If you think Pokerstars is bad, you will come away from casino play screaming ...

ZOMG!!! B&M IZ SOOO RIGGED!!!!1!!one1!.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

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The fact that poker sites readily offer you hand history files to obleviate fears of "rigging"- should demonstrate the importance they place on providing a fair game.

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i find this more relevant, and i agree.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

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The fact that poker sites readily offer you hand history files to obleviate fears of "rigging"- should demonstrate the importance they place on providing a fair game.

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i find this more relevant, and i agree.

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This is such a ridiculous statement. So, dr. Statistics, have you ran an analysis on these hand histories and can say with X percent confidence that everything is on the level?

I am not in the "poker is rigged crowd". I just think the arguments you guys use to dismiss "rigging" are silly.

1) Why would they rig it, they're making a ton of money anyway. because rigging it makes you more money!!

2) They are audited/would get caught you have no idea how thorough the audit is plus it isn't that hard to fool auditors, ever hear of Enron, Worldcom, etc? Those frauds were 100 times less complex than rigging and the most prestigous accounting firms in the world didn't catch on

3) They give you had histories, the numbers don't lie. I have yet to ever see a true statistical analysis from someone who is qualified to do one.

Again, not saying I agree with OP, but these arguments blow hard.

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Thinks of the hug amount of money an employee could make if they could sell their story of "online poker site rigging", or if it is rigged- I am sure some "insider" would have tried to expoliot their finding. But it just hasn't happened.

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Sorry, another bad point. If this person did exist, they would be very highly compensating and incented to keep their mouth shut. Again, think of Enron and Worldcom and Healthsouth.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

i didn't say hand histories were a proof, i said i agreed this was a little more relevant than the "they already make money, why would they cheat" argument. anyway this is still far from making any proof that cheating don't exist.
if u have a valid argument, give it. i don't have one at the moment, but i'll think about it a bit.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

This reminds me of when my friends would play 4 player, same team Madden football, and we'd have a lead but then the computer would rig the game in the fourth quarter so it would make some unbelievable plays to win the game and we titled this phenomenon "bukkake." Does anyone here think Poker Stars might be working with EA sports to bring this phenomenon over to poker? I say we get Carl Monday on the case. If he can bust a genius like The Ohio State University's own Mike Cooper, he'll get to the bottom of the poker-bukakee phenomenon. Bad beats like flopping top two pair and losing to a straight draw (check out this guy's blog titled "My White Boy Pain" linked to in chapter 3) just shouldn't happen.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

"When it gets heads up regularly the person with the worst hand will suck out and win."

-- Have you ever bothered to check up on some of the odds for many of those hands? Preflop, often times the favourite hand has around 65% (2-1) chance of winning. Even overwhelmingly favoured hands have around an 80% (4-1) chance of taking down the pot. In other words, when the underdog sucks out, it isn't really that big of a surprise. My god, the way some players act, they think that their 'favourite' hand should win 99.93% of the time. This just shows a needless ignorance about the odds of the game.

"This may be because the hand algorithm is so advanced that it tries to make up for the lesser hand to make it competitive but regualarly goes too far?"

-- What are you basing this argument on. Your (seemingly poor) knowledge of poker odds? Sit down with something like pokerstove, and crunch some numbers, comparing hands before the flop and on the flop.

"Anytime I have taken a break and then gone back I have run extremely well, is this because I was fresh or is it because I've been gone for a while and pokerstars wants to get me back again?"

-- Its because you are playing with less frustration and impatience having taken a break, than if you were sitting down to play right after having gone on a 300BB downstreak. There is a reason why top poker players always recommend taking a break from the game when you are having a tough time at the tables.

"Any time I have had to reload I have run extremely well - points back to luck factor?"

-- I find that when I have to reload, I am focused on playing even better poker, simply because I am now glaringly aware that I am losing at that point in time (hence having to reload). So unless I am tilting, I actually play better. Its that old adage, people tend to only work on their game when they're losing, and get lazy when they are winning.


End of the day, whatever a man thinketh so it shall be. If you believe that you are losing because the game is rigged, you are going to make needless mistakes (like slowplying when you should bet and such, which leaves money on the table), because you are always thinking that you are going to get outdrawn or such.

Just play the game, don't let the game play you.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

Sigh.

As far as I can tell your evidence that stars is rigged is that you have hot and cold streaks, you have "familiar" flops and can sense the cards that are coming, and on certain hands when you're a big favorite (you gave two examples where your opponent had gutshot straight draws) you "can be certain" or you can "bet your ass" the card is hitting.

Ok. (1) Hot and cold streaks. Postulate, if you will, a site that is completely non-rigged with an honest rng. Statistics would tell us that you would actually expect to see a bunch of hot and cold streaks. It would be suspicious if you didn't.

2. The flop are familiar. If you see tens of thousands of hands, a lot of flops are gonna trigger that deja-vu feeling. Although there are many thousands of combinations of cards, there are actually only a handful of types of flops. See enough of em, they all start to look familiar.

2(a) Thus you can sense what's coming. Um....I doubt it. If you note down for me precisely what you sense coming for the next six months and then record what actually came, well then we can talk. [and no, "I sensed it was coming a seven to make his straight and it came an eight (see so close) and made his two pair to beat me! OMG!!!!] doesn't count as a hit.]

3. You have a big favorit hand and the guy has to hit his gutshot or whatever to win. Bet your ass all you want, if you actually track this, I suspect you will be very surprised in how off your perception is from reality.


Ok, poker could be rigged. I don't beleive Stars is, but its at least conceptually possible. However, if it is (1) I doubt they'd do it in the ways you describe and (2) You certainly are not capable of detecting it in the ways you describe.

Look, we have pattern recognition "software" in our brains. Its been an incredibly important tool for our survival as a species. The problem is, its so important to us, that the software works to find patterns even when there are none.

On the other hand, if you're simply a troll, I want my fifteen minutes back, pond scum.

--Zetack

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

OP claims that he's up money longterm, but the games are rigged? Good thing he's such a dominant poker player that he can overcome the rigged-ness.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

Obviously it is rigged for him and they just turn it down sometimes to keep the fish in.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

Cliff Notes: Riverstars is rigged. Oh, and I'm not very smart.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

Outstanding work, OP! You've really cracked the code here. Keep it on the down low, though; there are a lot of operatives at work who would just as soon see our project reach an untimely end.

Next stop is to head to Costa Rica and firebomb Pokerstars' servers. It's a tough mission, but you seem like the man for the job. Someone will contact you in the next three days. Your contact man will give you some basic information, which will include where and whom to meet for more detailed instructions, a passport and matching identification, and a plane ticket to Costa Rica.

Of course, if you want to back out now, you can choose to abort the mission. We'll have to drug you and wipe all memory of this, though. We'll still set you up with a nice corporate job and suburban home to cover for the operation, as per the agreement. But once you accept and rendevous with the contact, there's no turning back.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

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They fixed it, its about time.

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wtf i didn't know it was broken.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

LOL RIVERSTARSAMENTS

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

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very sorry for the so bad english i am speaking, but i hope you understood me a bit.

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Your English is fine- well understood.

Interesting to hear about the lottery company that rigged the scratch cards. But the underlying question still has to be "For what reason"- there has to be a big reward to justify the huge risk of "loss of reputation".

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I wasn't aware the lottery lost the trial, but from a tv investigation (very heavily cut but still giving enough clues to be sure it was true), they were rigging it so you wouldn't get more than one big winner in a pack (a pack = 40 cards IIRC) and the sum of the other small winners would be very close to the expected value too. Basically, they were twisting the randomness and making sure you got results very close to the average on very small samples. Why ? I think maybe so that people would NOT feel it is rigged actually (oh so ironic eh). The fact we notice such weird runs on small scales in online poker seems to show that it is not rigged that way at least [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

PS : obviously the way they rigged the scratch cards made it very exploitable, and apparently it was exploited by some of the cards-sellers who had noticed this for years.

Re: Pokerstars Is Fixed
 

tl;dr

Didn't know Stars was broken.