Toast?
 

He's 39/9/1.9 over 143

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero...

5.5-1?

Re: Toast?
 

Yes youre probably dead, but I still call down, I dont fold top pair against these kind of opponents no matter what the action.

Re: Toast?
 

I think it's 6.5:1 but yeah even that appears awful when you look at it that way but if you can't fold the turn (and I don't think you can) you're getting 13:1 on the river - tough fold that I should probably start making.

Re: Toast?
 

against this sort of opponent where you would hate folding to a 3 bet, is it better to just call down from the turn without raising?

Re: Toast?
 

I can only really put him on trips or a flopped straight.. Maybe even two-pair.. Either way, I think you're behind and drawing slim.. OTOH, I'm sick and tired of seeing these pigs get away with bluffs..

I personally hate these spots because I either fold and then chew myself up thinking about how I might have been ahead, and OTOH if I call-down and see 66, I think to myself, "why the hell didn't I go with my gut feeling!"

I could be way off, but against a LAG like this guy, is it ever okay to just call the turn? I think if there is any chance that the raise might get 3bet (forcing us to make a relatively big fold against a LAG or an expensive calldown) then we might as well just get to showdown for as cheap as possible.. No?

Re: Toast?
 

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against this sort of opponent where you would hate folding to a 3 bet, is it better to just call down from the turn without raising?

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Only when he 3bets, which is rarely.

Re: Toast?
 

I wouldn't classify this guy as a LAG. 1.9 with a VPiP of 39 certainly isn't passive but it isn't kamikaze either. The low pfr is also suggestive of a more passive player rather then a live one.

Re: Toast?
 

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I wouldn't classify this guy as a LAG. 1.9 with a VPiP of 39 certainly isn't passive but it isn't kamikaze either. The low pfr is also suggestive of a more passive player rather then a live one.

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39/1.9 is still aggressive enough for me to never fold this strong of a hand even after this gruesome action. I agree with you that his PFR contradicts his AF, and it may suggest some passive tendencies, but i still cant make this fold. Even if it is the right play, I cant do it. Against a passive player I can fold here all day, but I dont fully trust this guy.

Re: Toast?
 

I'd peel but fold the river UI. He's beating you right now close to 90% of the time and 90% of the time if he bets the river.

Re: Toast?
 

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against this sort of opponent where you would hate folding to a 3 bet, is it better to just call down from the turn without raising?

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Only when he 3bets, which is rarely.

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It's really not that rare. TT, 88, 66, A8, A6, AT and even T8/T6 may 3-bet here. All these are very possible holdings at this point. I agree with the top quote here, if we're going to raise this turn we have to go to showdown. Otherwise, I think we should just call it down. Putting ourselves in a position to fold TP2K here is no good.

Re: Toast?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Putting ourselves in a position to fold TP2K here is no good.

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Just calling the turn looks like a pretty good idea to me here. When Hero raises the Villain will fold or fold the river UI if he can't beat a pair of Aces (unless he calls too much), therefore, by just calling you will collect just as much if you are ahead. When you're behind you get three bet.

Re: Toast?
 

My default line, on the turn, if I raise and get three-bet I will not be in a tough spot. I will have an easy fold, an easy cap or an easy call. If I don't know what to do I just call. I don't know if it is good or not but I stay away from a lot of trouble that way.
I would just call this down.

Re: Toast?
 

When a reasonable player is willing to lead this turn what's the point of raising. We don't want him to fold a worse hand and I doubt his flop play coincides with a draw.

Re: Toast?
 

It's been said a couple times already but I don't see any value in the turn raise.

Re: Toast?
 

You will see check/fold a decent amount on the river from busted draws or medium pairs. You also will often be paid off for two bets on the turn and one on the river by an opponent with a ten. There is a risk in the raise, but I think there is definite value in it.

Re: Toast?
 

We also don't mind him folding a worse hand as he would be getting 8-1 plus at least one more implied bet on a draw with probably 5 outs but maybe 9 (if he has a gutshot+pair).

Re: Toast?
 

Theres no way we'r good here 17% of the time or whatever it is we need. Fold to the turn 3bet - this guys stats are not that aggressive. I tend to agree that calling the turn and calling/betting the river is a better line. 2 bets are still likely to go in when we're winning and we'r not put in that nasty position when we'r dominated.

Re: Toast?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My default line, on the turn, if I raise and get three-bet I will not be in a tough spot. I will have an easy fold, an easy cap or an easy call. If I don't know what to do I just call. I don't know if it is good or not but I stay away from a lot of trouble that way.
I would just call this down.

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This is exactly how everyone should play in a HU pot, dont make a move if you dont know what to do if raised.

Re: Toast?
 

Villain will have A9 / A7 enough here to call down.

True

EDIT : I think a good line is :

Cap turn / Check/fold river UI

True

Re: Toast?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think a good line is :

Cap turn / Check/fold river UI

True

[/ QUOTE ]

Dear God, I hope youre not serious. You do realize that the hero makes just as much money if winning by calling down the turn 3bet that he does by capping the turn and checking the river. Since both lines net the same amount when ahead, choosing the line that always sees the showdown has to be the superior line.

Re: Toast?
 

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against this sort of opponent where you would hate folding to a 3 bet, is it better to just call down from the turn without raising?

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Only when he 3bets, which is rarely.

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It's really not that rare. TT, 88, 66, A8, A6, AT and even T8/T6 may 3-bet here. All these are very possible holdings at this point. I agree with the top quote here, if we're going to raise this turn we have to go to showdown. Otherwise, I think we should just call it down. Putting ourselves in a position to fold TP2K here is no good.

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All of those hands are possibilities based on the action, so I'm going to renege on this one and say you're right.
I am just a little annoyed at this recent trend to call down everything just because "getting 3bet sucks". It is one factor to consider but it's not everything. You also have to consider how often you have the best hand and how often they would bet the river with worse hands. This hand isn't really your typical 'donk' because villian took initiative on the flop and is more likely than usual to lead the turn with a monster hand as opposed to C/R. A lot of players would just C/C down from the turn with KT or whatever.

Re: Toast?
 

As someone pointed out my odds are wrong. They are, in fact, 12:2 to call down. In order to figure out what to do here, I propose we look at what our opponent could have that beats us and how many outs we have against those hands. Then we look at hands that we beat and the outs they have against us to determine how much he needs to have these hands before we can call down.

Format:
Hand/outs we have/combos - reason I discounted some combos

AT/3/6
A8/3/6
A6/3/3 - for flop c/r
T8/5/9
T6/5/2 - for pf
86/5/4 - for pf
TT/0/2 - no raise pf
88/0/3
66/0/3
75/0/6 - for pf

44 combos
Weighted average of outs 2.727 ~16-1
Combos weighted for the outs we have against them: 41.5373

Now what are some hands he could have that we beat:
J9
A9
A7
T9
QJ

Since we are getting 6-1 and we have 41.5373 combos out against us, we need him to be bluffing and lose with 6.9228 combos. He's going to bluff and win about 16% of the time. So we need him to be bluffing 8.0305 combos here.

So after all that math, it's still a matter of experience and judgment. I think it's very rare that he has any of those hands that we beat. This is a huge play by him. If he's going to play a flush draw aggressively, I think it's much more likely he c/c the flop and c/r the turn. As good players, we tend it c/r the flop and lead the turn when we want to play a draw fast because that's generally how we play a made hand. Plus it costs less. But a bad player wants to scare you into folding and the scariest move to them is a turn c/r. Another thing is that, while most fish aren't good hand readers, it's pretty clear what we have here, and I doubt he thinks we're folding an A. Most of the hands above require him to have c/r'ed a gut shot on the flop. We've all seen this at one time or another but it's far from common. I think the parlay between him c/r the flop with those hands and then b/3b'ing the turn makes it almost impossible that he has them. So we're left pretty much with J9, and he'll have to play it this aggressively about half the time. To me, when I look at his stats, I just don't see it in him.

ILP,

For the most part I agree that you shouldn’t raise unless you have a plan for a 3-bet, but there are certainly situations were this doesn’t apply. Namely when you have a clear raise and a 3-bet is pretty unlikely. This could happen when you have something like bottom two on a draw ridden board. When he 3-bets, you have to decide whether he would vastly over play tp.

In any case, I had a clear plan when I raised the turn here. I was going to call down because I have A [censored] Q!

Re: Toast?
 

[ QUOTE ]


ILP,

For the most part I agree that you shouldn’t raise unless you have a plan for a 3-bet, but there are certainly situations were this doesn’t apply. Namely when you have a clear raise and a 3-bet is pretty unlikely. This could happen when you have something like bottom two on a draw ridden board. When he 3-bets, you have to decide whether he would vastly over play tp.

In any case, I had a clear plan when I raised the turn here. I was going to call down because I have A [censored] Q!

[/ QUOTE ]

Leader, when I have bottom two pair and my turn raise gets 3bet, I dont think, I just call down, so even in this example I know what to do if raised. Online, I believe this calldown will always be profitable assuming so strong read to the contrary.

About your plan with Top pair. This looks good to me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I dont fold top pair in HU pots vs aggressive players, so If I raised the turn I would execute the same plan.

Re: Toast?
 

Leader, could you explain how you come to the conclusion that we have 38 combos ahead of us here? When I tally up the total of that list of combos you have there, I get 44.. What am I missing? Also, I suck at math and was curious how you got these numbers:

[ QUOTE ]
Weighted average of outs 2.921 ~15-1
Combos weighted for the outs we have against them: 35.587

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks in advance.

Re: Toast?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Leader, could you explain how you come to the conclusion that we have 38 combos ahead of us here? When I tally up the total of that list of combos you have there, I get 44.. What am I missing? Also, I suck at math and was curious how you got these numbers:

[ QUOTE ]
Weighted average of outs 2.921 ~15-1
Combos weighted for the outs we have against them: 35.587

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you. I can't add apparently. It should be fixed now. It just makes it more of a fold.

Re: Toast?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


ILP,

For the most part I agree that you shouldn’t raise unless you have a plan for a 3-bet, but there are certainly situations were this doesn’t apply. Namely when you have a clear raise and a 3-bet is pretty unlikely. This could happen when you have something like bottom two on a draw ridden board. When he 3-bets, you have to decide whether he would vastly over play tp.

In any case, I had a clear plan when I raised the turn here. I was going to call down because I have A [censored] Q!

[/ QUOTE ]

Leader, when I have bottom two pair and my turn raise gets 3bet, I dont think, I just call down, so even in this example I know what to do if raised. Online, I believe this calldown will always be profitable assuming so strong read to the contrary.

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Well I could make another example but there are clearly situations were it's correct to raise but what to do with a 3-bet is unclear because the outcomes are close EV wise.

[ QUOTE ]
About your plan with Top pair. This looks good to me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I dont fold top pair in HU pots vs aggressive players, so If I raised the turn I would execute the same plan.

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Yeah I like my reasons for folding though. As I said, it's about experience and judgment which are going to vary among players.

Re: Toast?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain will have A9 / A7 enough here to call down.

True

EDIT : I think a good line is :

Cap turn / Check/fold river UI

True

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folding is to the turn 3bet is better than capping the turn.

You must be running really well.