Week 1 CFB Notions
 

It's Friday, and I'd rather discuss football than work... So, I figure I'll go ahead and share some early leans that I have for Week 1, hoping that people will come out of the woodwork with considerations that I haven't thought of... I'll save the logic until we get closer to the start of the season.

Fla. Int'l +10.5 at Mid. Ten. St. (3 unit)
Toledo +7.5 at Iowa St. (3 unit)
Miss St. +7 vs South Carolina (2 unit)
Pitt -3.5 vs UVA (2 unit)
Nebraska -20 vs La. Tech (2 unit)
Wisconsin -10 neutral Bowling Green (2 unit)
Clemson -34 vs Fla. Atlantic (1 unit)

And, here are a few games that I will play if I get a line-move in the right direction...

UTEP +1 at SDSU (1 unit)
Rice +13 vs Houston (1 unit)
Auburn -15 vs Wash. St. (1 unit)
San Jose St. +18 at Washington (1 unit)
Oregon -11.5 vs Stanford (1 unit)
Texas -41 vs N. Texas (1 unit)

I also expect that I will like the following when they get posted:

Cal/Tenn under
Miami/FSU under
Nebraska/La. Tech under
Florida/So. Miss under
Oregon/Stanford over

I haven't heard a whole lot of talk about most of the games that I am eyeing, which is kinda why I am posting them. It's interesting, because the plays that most people (squares?) seem to be excited about are Wisconsin, N'Western, Indiana, Houston, and Utah. I agree with Wisconsin, disagree with Houston, but I think the lines on the other three are right on...

Anyway, all thoughts on these (or other) games are welcome.

ML4L

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

You know I'm noob to sports betting, but I do know a lot about college football, as its my #1 obsession.

I don't dislike any of your bets.

The ones I like and will probably make myself:

UTEP +1
San Jose State +18
Oregon -11.5
Pitt -3.5

I think I will take South Carolina, Washington State, and Iowa State.

Some other games I'm eyeing, what do you think?

LSU -30.5 v. Louis. Laf.
Hawaii +16 @ Alabama
Vanderbilt +25.5 @ Michigan
N. Illinois +18 @ Ohio State
TCU -8.5 @ Baylor
Arizona -7 v. BYU

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]

I don't dislike any of your bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

I think I will take South Carolina and Iowa State.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, clearly, you can't be too crazy about my Miss. St. and Toledo picks... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]


Some other games I'm eyeing, what do you think?

LSU -30.5 v. Louis. Laf.
Hawaii +16 @ Alabama
Vanderbilt +25.5 @ Michigan
N. Illinois +18 @ Ohio State
TCU -8.5 @ Baylor
Arizona -7 v. BYU

[/ QUOTE ]

I generally would rather lay the points than take them when it comes to Sun Belt teams out of conference, but LSU has too many question marks for me, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. If I'm going to lay a ton of points, I like to be certain that there will be complete dominance up front. Even though La. Lafayette will be overmatched, I don't see them being overmatched by much more than 4 TDs, given their relatively decent talent at the skill positions.

I like Hawaii this year, but they're a team that I won't play on away from home. I might be giving up value on occasion, but, whatever... FWIW, I like Alabama this year, but they are weak in the secondary, so I actually think this is a pretty good match-up for Hawaii.

Vandy would be my lean in the Vandy/Mich game; I was actually hoping to play Michigan before the line posted, but 25.5 is too many.

I loved NIU last year, but I can't help but wonder if Wolfe will be as good without his O-line. So, I probably won't play on or against them the first few games until I get a feel for how the new line will perform.

I'd lean toward taking the points with Baylor. TCU's D might be a smidge better this year, but their offense is probably going to fall off a little bit, and Baylor is not as bad as people think, particularly on D. Now that I think about it, I had meant to have this game as one of the unders that I am looking at...

I would lean to Arizona, but I am not comfortable with the hype about their defense until I see it in action. Everyone ran on them last year, and I hate teams that can't stop the run.

Care to share your thoughts on So. Car. and Iowa St.? Iowa St. was one of my sleepers last year, and I cashed on them a few times. But, their O-line worries me this year, as does their defense. I think they've gotten over-hyped, and Toledo is the best team in the MAC, IMO. Line looks like it should be -3 or -3.5 to me... I like Spurrier, but aside from the skill positions, his talent is no better than Miss. St.'s. I think that they overachieved last year and are going to fall back to earth this year. Miss St.'s defense was not bad last year and should be even better this year. Laying a TD is a LOT of points on the road; I think the game should be closer to -2.5.

ML4L

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

For South Carolina - Miss State: Last season, the Gamecocks had a pretty horrendous run D (174 yards/game), which was also the only bright spot on MSU's offense last year (138 rush yards/gm). The offensive line for the Dogs STUNK, so it seems Norwood was the main and maybe SOLE reason for an average running game. Norwoord is gone, and while Thornton averaged 4.8 yards/carry, Dixon may be the starter. MSU's offensive line should improve, but I'm not sure South Carolina's run D will be any WORSE than last year.

South Carolina lost a solid amount in the secondary, but I am nowhere near confident in Mike Henig tossing passes to a Omarr Conner (former QB), Tony Burks (JUCO transfer, 1st year in system), and Will Prosser (catch more than 28 balls, please?). Miss State will be improved on the field, but I think with Spurrier's attack, it could be a little ugly.

Here are a couple questions:

1. So. Caro. led the nation in snaps last year at 605, will the new rules effect them more than others?

2. Do you bet straight up moneylines? If so, why?

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
For South Carolina - Miss State: Last season, the Gamecocks had a pretty horrendous run D (174 yards/game), which was also the only bright spot on MSU's offense last year (138 rush yards/gm). The offensive line for the Dogs STUNK, so it seems Norwood was the main and maybe SOLE reason for an average running game. Norwoord is gone, and while Thornton averaged 4.8 yards/carry, Dixon may be the starter. MSU's offensive line should improve, but I'm not sure South Carolina's run D will be any WORSE than last year.

South Carolina lost a solid amount in the secondary, but I am nowhere near confident in Mike Henig tossing passes to a Omarr Conner (former QB), Tony Burks (JUCO transfer, 1st year in system), and Will Prosser (catch more than 28 balls, please?). Miss State will be improved on the field, but I think with Spurrier's attack, it could be a little ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good stuff, but I kinda feel like some of it supports betting MSU more than USC. As you point out, the USC run D was terrible last year. While they can't be much worse, I don't see them being any better, either. I don't remember his name offhand, but USC only has one decent player on the line, and from what I've heard, he's lazy and might not even start. Because MSU should be able to run the ball at least semi-successfully, that will keep the pressure off Henig. MSU only tends to look really bad against teams that can stop the run without "trying" to, because those teams can focus on the pass. With regard to Conner and Burks, Conner is a very good athlete, and I've heard good things about Burks, too. With USC having a mediocre secondary, I really think that MSU can get 17-21 points on the board, despite the inexperience and the mediocre offensive line. So, it really comes down to whether USC will be able to hang 24+ on the MSU defense. Maybe, as they have talent at RB and WR, but I think that their line is so mediocre that the skill players won't be able to get as many 1-on-1 match-ups as they otherwise might. Plus, I'm not sold on USC's QB. So, I don't think they get to 24, and MSU covers/wins.

[ QUOTE ]


Here are a couple questions:

1. So. Caro. led the nation in snaps last year at 605, will the new rules effect them more than others?

[/ QUOTE ]

I might not be thinking about this right, but I would actually think that it would affect them LESS than other teams. The main rule that I have been alluding to is that the clock will start on a 1st down when the ball is ready for play, rather than when the ball is snapped. So, teams that don't take a lot of time to run their plays aren't going to lose as much time, relatively, as teams that take 30 seconds per play. That's my gut answer, but I might need to think about it some more...

[ QUOTE ]

2. Do you bet straight up moneylines? If so, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

The "correct" answer is that you should find a line converter (I'm sure that craig's site has one) to see where the value is better: pointspread or moneyline. Personally, I go more on "feel," unless the spread/ML are really out of whack, but that might be a leak... My feelings on the spread/ML issue are a little different than the "sharp" opinion on this forum, so I wouldn't feel comfortable peddling my nonsense to others... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

And, incidentally, don't you feel like the research that you did on the USC/MSU game is a heck of a lot more relevant than any "trend" stats that might be out there? Even though we disagree on the interpretation, looking at the details and trying to play out the different facets of the game in your mind is the ONLY way to win, IMHO.

ML4L

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[quote

And, incidentally, don't you feel like the research that you did on the USC/MSU game is a heck of a lot more relevant than any "trend" stats that might be out there? Even though we disagree on the interpretation, looking at the details and trying to play out the different facets of the game in your mind is the ONLY way to win, IMHO.



[/ QUOTE ]

Ya know, I agree. This is way more fun, too. I love to discuss college football, and this is a great outlet. I will definitely stray away from "random" trends. Is there any value in doing what we just did on MSU/SC and then looking at trends as another piece of evidence to evaluate, albeit a small piece of evidence?

As for the actual game, my point about the running game is that Norwood was the huge reason MSU was decent in that facet. With someone less experienced and less talented, SC won't have to give as much attention as they would have if Norwood were there. Mississippi State is going to be a team over the first 3 games that I might avoid betting against or for, because its so questionable how their skill players will grow. I might actually hold off on that game, but I'm not sure yet. If I had to, I'd go with SC right now.

What do you think of the value of USC -8 @ Arkansas?

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]

Ya know, I agree. This is way more fun, too. I love to discuss college football, and this is a great outlet. I will definitely stray away from "random" trends. Is there any value in doing what we just did on MSU/SC and then looking at trends as another piece of evidence to evaluate, albeit a small piece of evidence?

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean, don't let an amateur like me dissuade you from handicapping however you want. My only real point was that you have to be very careful about how you use trends when you choose to use them... So, now if you see something like "Team A is 8-0 in Thursday night conference road games over the past 20 years," you know to ignore that and focus on more meaningful trends, which do exist...

[ QUOTE ]

What do you think of the value of USC -8 @ Arkansas?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that USC is too much of an unknown for me to dream of playing on or against them early. If I HAD to pick, I would pick USC because I think the talent gap that lead to last year's massacre is still largely there.

ML4L

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[quoteWhat do you think of the value of USC -8 @ Arkansas?

[/ QUOTE ]

USC's defense should be a lot better this year, and imo it will be the strength of their team. They have the best LB core in the country and have been tinkering with some 3-4 schemes to go along with their conventional 4-3. Carroll has recently said this is the fastest team he has had at USC. Their secondary, while still the weakest link on their D, supposedly is looking better.

The main question mark with them, is how their offense will perform with Booty at qb and whoever starts at rb. They should have a really good oline, but I've been reading that their offense has been getting blown up vs. the defense when they've been scrimmaging thus far. Apparently Booty hasn't looked very good and Sanchez has looked even worse.

Now this could be because USC's front 7 is nasty and the defense is usually ahead of the offense early on, but it's a risky proposition laying 8.5 when your qb is starting his first game in a hostile environment, and it's not unlikely that he makes 2 or 3 big mistakes during the game.

On the other hand, Arkansas' stud rb McFadden will almost definitlely not play this game due to injury. And apparently their stud frosh qb Mustain is starting to seriously challenge for the starting job. Mustain may eventually be an all-american, but he's a true freshman and if he starts this game, I don't like his chances against USC's attacking defense.

Psychologically, Arkansas will definitely be seeking revenge after their embarassing loss last year. I don't know what the under is, but that might be the best play here.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
[quoteWhat do you think of the value of USC -8 @ Arkansas?

[/ QUOTE ]

USC's defense should be a lot better this year, and imo it will be the strength of their team. They have the best LB core in the country and have been tinkering with some 3-4 schemes to go along with their conventional 4-3. Carroll has recently said this is the fastest team he has had at USC. Their secondary, while still the weakest link on their D, supposedly is looking better.

The main question mark with them, is how their offense will perform with Booty at qb and whoever starts at rb. They should have a really good oline, but I've been reading that their offense has been getting blown up vs. the defense when they've been scrimmaging thus far. Apparently Booty hasn't looked very good and Sanchez has looked even worse.

Now this could be because USC's front 7 is nasty and the defense is usually ahead of the offense early on, but it's a risky proposition laying 8.5 when your qb is starting his first game in a hostile environment, and it's not unlikely that he makes 2 or 3 big mistakes during the game.

On the other hand, Arkansas' stud rb McFadden will almost definitlely not play this game due to injury. And apparently their stud frosh qb Mustain is starting to seriously challenge for the starting job. Mustain may eventually be an all-american, but he's a true freshman and if he starts this game, I don't like his chances against USC's attacking defense.

Psychologically, Arkansas will definitely be seeking revenge after their embarassing loss last year. I don't know what the under is, but that might be the best play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The McFadden injury is huge for this game, and while Felix Jones is a burner and averaged a ton of yards/carry, he never had the opp. to carry a full load. Against USC, his speed will be matched by the speed of the Trojan D. I'm going to monitor USC's practice reports and if I can find a fan forum, monitor that. If Booty or Sanchez begin to make strong improvement, and Mustain is named starter, I'll pick up USC at -8.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

What places have NCAAF lines up, or do most of them by now?

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored].

I could've gotten Kentucky +25 at Louisville 3 weeks ago and now it's down to +22.5...[censored] [censored] [censored] [censored] [censored].

Edited to add: The 22.5 has value IMO but not nearly as much as the 25...

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's Friday, and I'd rather discuss football than work... So, I figure I'll go ahead and share some early leans that I have for Week 1, hoping that people will come out of the woodwork with considerations that I haven't thought of... I'll save the logic until we get closer to the start of the season.

Fla. Int'l +10.5 at Mid. Ten. St. (3 unit)
Toledo +7.5 at Iowa St. (3 unit)
Miss St. +7 vs South Carolina (2 unit)
Pitt -3.5 vs UVA (2 unit)
Nebraska -20 vs La. Tech (2 unit)
Wisconsin -10 neutral Bowling Green (2 unit)
Clemson -34 vs Fla. Atlantic (1 unit)

And, here are a few games that I will play if I get a line-move in the right direction...

UTEP +1 at SDSU (1 unit)
Rice +13 vs Houston (1 unit)
Auburn -15 vs Wash. St. (1 unit)
San Jose St. +18 at Washington (1 unit)
Oregon -11.5 vs Stanford (1 unit)
Texas -41 vs N. Texas (1 unit)

I also expect that I will like the following when they get posted:

Cal/Tenn under
Miami/FSU under
Nebraska/La. Tech under
Florida/So. Miss under
Oregon/Stanford over

I haven't heard a whole lot of talk about most of the games that I am eyeing, which is kinda why I am posting them. It's interesting, because the plays that most people (squares?) seem to be excited about are Wisconsin, N'Western, Indiana, Houston, and Utah. I agree with Wisconsin, disagree with Houston, but I think the lines on the other three are right on...

Anyway, all thoughts on these (or other) games are welcome.

ML4L

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to update...

BetCRIS has moved Pitt to -5 and Miss St. to +5.5, so I went ahead and played Pitt -3.5 -107 and Miss St. +7 -113 at Pinny, just in case (most places have Pitt at -4 or -4.5 and Miss St. at +6.5). I was hoping to hold out, particularly on Miss St., but I'm happy with those lines, so I'd rather get my plays in...

Nebraska -20, Fla. Int'l +11, and Toledo +7.5 are widely available. Wisconsin won't be a play for me anymore due to the injury to Stocco. Clemson is down to -32.5 in some spots, so I'm going to hold out there as well.

ML4L

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

USC will have one of the best defenses in the nation. I didn't bet the house on USC, but I did bet a larger amount than normal.

The only games I have money on so far is USC -8 at Arkansas and Notre Dame -6.5 at Michigan State.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
USC will have one of the best defenses in the nation. I didn't bet the house on USC, but I did bet a larger amount than normal.

The only games I have money on so far is USC -8 at Arkansas and Notre Dame -6.5 at Michigan State.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you get the -6.5 from a friend? If not, what effing sportsbook has that up already?

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

The Sportingbet family has lines for about half of the ND season up in their college football games of the year. I just checked and the 6.5 line is still current at Sportingbetusa and Sportsbook.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

For some reason, and I don't know why, I'm really considering putting a unit on Miami (-4) v. Florida State.

Also, I'm going a tad insane and I kind of like Syracuse (+16) @ Wake.

I probably will pass on Iowa State/Toledo, USC/Arkansas, ND/GT.

So, as of now, I haven't placed any units, but in the next couple days, I plan to make:

Akron (+16) @ Penn State
S. Carolina (-5.5) @ Miss State
Rutgers (+6) @ UNC
Hawaii (+16) @ Alabama
Utah (+4) @ UCLA
Oregon (-11.5) v. Stanford

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
For some reason, and I don't know why, I'm really considering putting a unit on Miami (-4) v. Florida State.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to hear your angle on this game. My initial thought a few weeks ago when I was doing my research is that FSU is a better team than Miami this year, that the line would come -3 or -3.5, and I would take FSU. Then, Miami had those players suspendend, so I figured the line would come -2.5, and it would be no play for me (I'd rather capture the 3 than have the additional personnel edge). When the line actually posts, it comes at -4, despite the suspensions, and it hasn't really moved since then (I know that it is -3.5 some places, but I think you can still find -4 without a ton of effort).

So, I'm a little scared that, by hanging the line at -4, the books are making their opinion on these two teams very obvious, and I generally don't like fading a strong statement from the books... Now I'm thinking that FSU isn't as good as I initially thought...?

Thoughts?

[ QUOTE ]

So, as of now, I haven't placed any units, but in the next couple days, I plan to make:

Akron (+16) @ Penn State
S. Carolina (-5.5) @ Miss State
Rutgers (+6) @ UNC
Hawaii (+16) @ Alabama
Utah (+4) @ UCLA
Oregon (-11.5) v. Stanford

[/ QUOTE ]

No opinion on Akron.

You know my thoughts on S. Car., but the number is getting more reasonable for you (starting safety just got suspended, though).

Lots of people like Rutgers, Hawaii, Utah, and Oregon; I probably won't play any of those, though.

Out of curiosity, how many books do you have an account at?

ML4L

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

FWIW Akron opened at like 18 and got hit with a lot of money after Fezzik released it as a multi-unit play. I grabbed it at +17.5 (huzzah, maybe).

What is going on with the USC-Arkansas total? I figured that USC's QBs haven't looked so great, their D should be strong, Arkansas' stud RB is out, and there are the new speed-up-the-game rules, so the game might be sort of medium-scoring.

It opened at 59, which seems insane to me. It then got POUNDED down to 52, which still seems a tad high. Is there something I don't know?

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

I really like TCU -8, Baylor actually played some teams close last year early in the season in low scoring games, but they lost 7 starters on D. This should be at least -10.

The FSU/UM under at 40. I also think FSU wins, but Im a biased alum, so I refuse to bet on them.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

As a michigan follower....i'll be on vandy +25.5

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

Mark my words, Akron will be crushed by PSU. I believe this game will be reminiscent of the game in '99 when PSU laid 70 on Akron. PSU has incredible talent at receiver and will most likely be passing over them all day. The best line backing corps in the country will also not be giving up many points.
Disclaimer: I am one of the worlds biggest Penn State fans, and frequently predict them to win National Championships.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

I'm a MAC follower and I would be surprised if Akron kept this game reasonable.

This would be a 'no play' for me though. If the line was 22 or something then I would be considering Akron pretty strongly.

I'm surprised Fezzik is so strongly in Akron's camp at only 15-17 points or whatever.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised Fezzik is so strongly in Akron's camp at only 15-17 points or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was strongly in favor at 18, which is significantly different than 15.

I was gonna buy it back once the line got to 15.5, but then it moved to 16.5 and so I'm just sticking with Akron.

ZIPS!

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

If PSU can't crush Akron by more than 17 points then I've got more problems than the $50 I have on this game.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

Miami - FSU U41 2 units. Miami missing Moss and Moore, best defense at UM in about 15 years.

Buffalo -6 Temple 1 unit, may add.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]


Buffalo -6 Temple 1 unit, may add.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have yet to hear anyone attempt to cap this game. I'd love to hear your angle...

ML4L

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

Temple is historically awful in the early season.
Fall 2005 16-63 v ASU, 0-65 Wisky, 17-42 home Toledo.
2004 - 17-45 at Toledo, 16-70 BGreen.
2003 - lost to 1-aa Villanova. Etc.

New coach, no QB. Seven returning starters. 7. Only 35 guys return from last year's woeful squad.

FB out for year with neck injury. Walk-on starting at WR. Owls replace entire kicking game.
Defense gave up 45ppg last year, will be *worse* this year [defense, not ppg in the MAC], lost most guys to graduation, starting S left the team, playing a lot of true frosh.

Figure playing home is worth at least 3 pts here to Buffalo.
Buffalo has 47 guys returning and a big O-line. Chad Upshaw may be playing TE in the NFL next year.
Secondary led MAC in passing D last year, all four return. 2004's leading rusher back from injury.

Yeah, yeah, this is all known, but it's not like people focus on this game opening w/e of cfb. 21-10 Buffalo.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

The USC in my name stands for South Carolina, so take this for what it is worth.

I would a little worried about thinking we can't score. We will put up some points. The Oline will be much improved, and those skilled position have some talent.

The Sec will not be as weak as people think. We are going to play about 14 of 22 freshmen, but reports from practices have been good. Reports last year said we were the worse team Steve ever coached. We won 7.

We are young and will make freshmen mistakes, but I am looking to see 7-8 wins this season.

Also, we will be starting a freshmen at QB by midseason.

I am going to take the USC in the game, bc the report I have heard out of MSU....haven't said much for them.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

I haven't really put a whole lot of thought into this week's lines yet as I usually base most of my analysis on watching the teams play, and I don't bet very heavy the first couple weeks of the season. I haven't placed any bets yet either as I'm waiting for a Neteller transfer to go through.

With that said, the one line that really jumps out at me is Texas -41. In Texas, you have a team that consistently blows out weak opponents year in and year out, going against a North Texas team that consistently gets blown out in non-conference games and is now way down from years past, looking like one of the weakest teams in the Sun Belt.

Factor in that Mack Brown's going to want to get both QBs work and will be passing late into the second half, and I think this line would have value at -50. Seriously, I can't imagine the Horns scoring less than 60 in this game or UNT scoring more than 7.

One other thing I wanted to mention is the Kentucky/Louisville game. Why do people like Kentucky here? Louisville always blows people out at Papa John's, and they look to have the most talented team in Petrino's tenure. They tend to let down in mid-season road games, but in a home opener against a rival, I'd expect them to win by at least 4 TDs. -22.5 sounds like a bargain to me.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

Hawaii (+16) @ Alabama (mentioned this one before)
BYU (+7) @ Arizona
Florida State @ Miami (-4')
Idaho (+29) @ Michigan State (mentioned before)
Vanderbilt (+25') @ Michigan (mentioned before)
TCU (-8') @ Baylor

I'm now beginning to sway away from:

Rutgers (+5') @ North Carolina
Akron (+16) @ Penn State
Utah (+3') @ UCLA

And still confused with:

South Carolina (-7) @ Miss State

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't really put a whole lot of thought into this week's lines yet as I usually base most of my analysis on watching the teams play, and I don't bet very heavy the first couple weeks of the season. I haven't placed any bets yet either as I'm waiting for a Neteller transfer to go through.

With that said, the one line that really jumps out at me is Texas -41. In Texas, you have a team that consistently blows out weak opponents year in and year out, going against a North Texas team that consistently gets blown out in non-conference games and is now way down from years past, looking like one of the weakest teams in the Sun Belt.

Factor in that Mack Brown's going to want to get both QBs work and will be passing late into the second half, and I think this line would have value at -50. Seriously, I can't imagine the Horns scoring less than 60 in this game or UNT scoring more than 7.

One other thing I wanted to mention is the Kentucky/Louisville game. Why do people like Kentucky here? Louisville always blows people out at Papa John's, and they look to have the most talented team in Petrino's tenure. They tend to let down in mid-season road games, but in a home opener against a rival, I'd expect them to win by at least 4 TDs. -22.5 sounds like a bargain to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like either team at 22'. I think that line is very close to what is going to happen. Obv the half won't happen, but you know what I mean. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
One other thing I wanted to mention is the Kentucky/Louisville game. Why do people like Kentucky here? Louisville always blows people out at Papa John's, and they look to have the most talented team in Petrino's tenure. They tend to let down in mid-season road games, but in a home opener against a rival, I'd expect them to win by at least 4 TDs. -22.5 sounds like a bargain to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Louisville always blows out CUSA/Big East cupcakes at Papa John's, but for the Kentucky game the stadium will be at least half blue, so their homefield advantage will be largely negated (it's only a 42k seat stadium anyway - not like noise is a huge factor to begin w/).

Kentucky is returning most of their key players and should have their best team in 4 years, albeit that doesn't say much, and if Andre Woodson held onto the ball last year at the goal-line, Kentucky's woeful 3-8 squad likely would've beaten the 10-2 or whatever Cardinals.

Kentucky's biggest problems the last few years have been injuries and lack of depth from probation, but injuries won't be a problem for this game, and they've had 2 full recruiting classes since being off probation, so they have more scholarship players now than they've had in several years. Rafael Little, Tony Dixon, and Keenan Burton are big-time playmakers on offense, and Andre Woodson is a solid veteran QB. Defensively the front 7 will be very good and deep, secondary not so much.

U of L, while sporting perhaps the best offense in the country, probably will not be much better on defense than Kentucky. Brohm is coming off a torn ACL, and as with any such injury it is a little uncertain how he will react, and frankly I think he's pretty overrated to begin with. If Kentucky will bring guys up in the box to contain Bush and make Brohm beat them, I think they could potentially win this game. (I'm not sure they'll do that tho; Archer has been in love w/ playing these soft zones which I like to call the "blitz-none cover-none"...hopefully he'll come up w/ a better game-plan now that he has some better personnel.)

The line opened a couple weeks ago at 25, and I almost jumped on Kentucky there, but didn't because I wanted to make sure that the veteran Woodson is going to start at QB over the sophomore Pulley, and didn't anticipate such a drastic line move. I think Rich Brooks is staging a little faux QB controversy; Woodson is a good decision maker and accurate passer, but has a little bit of a fumbling problem, and all spring and summer Brooks has been talking up Pulley, who's more of a Marcus Vick-type running QB. Here it is less than a week before the game and he still hasn't named a starter; my take is you can expect to see Woodson taking almost all the snaps at QB against U of L, w/ Pulley taking an occasional snap at QB and seeing some time at WR. Brooks did the exact same thing when he had Lorenzen and Boyd in his first year; he's just not tipping his hand so U of L will have to be prepared for both styles, which is good from a strategic standpoint.

If that thought had occurred to me earlier I'd have hopped on UK at 25 and got a huge middle two weeks later w/ U of L -21.5, but oh well. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


Cliff notes: U of L is a strong favorite, but 22.5 is too much, and 25 was WAY too much, as indicated by the line movement.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

[/ QUOTE ]

Just checked Pinnacle, and you can get South Carolina -6.5 (-106) and Miami -3 (-109).

Where can you get FSU +4.5?

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

[/ QUOTE ]
Just checked Pinnacle, and you can get South Carolina -6.5 (-106) and Miami -3 (-109).
Where can you get FSU +4.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely nowhere.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

[/ QUOTE ]
Just checked Pinnacle, and you can get South Carolina -6.5 (-106) and Miami -3 (-109).
Where can you get FSU +4.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely nowhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I figured, but pirateboy has it listed...

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

I just teased USC and San Jose St. on bodog. Getting -2 and +24.5 respectively. I think it's sweet, I feel like San Jose St. just has to manage not to get blown away by a horrible Washington team and I win good cash.

Maybe I'm naive, since its my first time betting. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I still haven't laid any units yet because I'm new and being wayyyy to careful.

Lately, I've been feeling good about:

[/ QUOTE ]
Just checked Pinnacle, and you can get South Carolina -6.5 (-106) and Miami -3 (-109).
Where can you get FSU +4.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely nowhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I figured, but pirateboy has it listed...

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't UM open at -4? I must've gotten my wires crossed. I remember seeing UM -3', which I like a lot. Sorry about that, I guess I imagined the 4'.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

Just for the record, here are all of Louisville's home results over the last two years:

Kentucky W 28-0
East Carolina W 59-7
South Florida W 41-9
TCU W 55-28
Cincinnatti W 70-7
Oregon State W 63-27
Florida Atlantic W 61-10
North Carolina W 69-14
Pittsburgh W 42-20
Rutgers W 56-5
Syracuse W 41-17

See, it's not just Big East opponents they've been beating up on. Pretty much everyone that comes into Papa John's gets hammered. When a 22 point win over Pitt (in which they did cover, I remember betting it) is their closest home win in the last two years, I think a 22.5 point spread is pretty good.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just for the record, here are all of Louisville's home results over the last two years:

Kentucky W 28-0
East Carolina W 59-7
Oregon State W 63-27
North Carolina W 69-14
Pittsburgh W 42-20
Rutgers W 56-5
Syracuse W 41-17

See, it's not just Big East opponents they've been beating up on. Pretty much everyone that comes into Papa John's gets hammered. When a 22 point win over Pitt (in which they did cover, I remember betting it) is their closest home win in the last two years, I think a 22.5 point spread is pretty good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both UNC and OSU were horrendous last year.

Re: Week 1 CFB Notions
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just for the record, here are all of Louisville's home results over the last two years:

Kentucky W 28-0
East Carolina W 59-7
Oregon State W 63-27
North Carolina W 69-14
Pittsburgh W 42-20
Rutgers W 56-5
Syracuse W 41-17

See, it's not just Big East opponents they've been beating up on. Pretty much everyone that comes into Papa John's gets hammered. When a 22 point win over Pitt (in which they did cover, I remember betting it) is their closest home win in the last two years, I think a 22.5 point spread is pretty good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both UNC and OSU were horrendous last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

And Kentucky will be leaps and bounds better in 2006 than in 2005. Kentucky is a sleeper for a bowl game, and Rafael Little is one of the most underrated players in the country. I feel this game will be way too close to 22 to really NEED to bet on it. I don't know if this is a pretty common thought, but in games like UL-UK, a point move in the line doesn't entice me personally.