WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Jamie Gold might be the current chip leader but Thorson may be the most consistent, if I'm not mistaken. He has always managed to finish each day relatively high on the leader board. He must be doing something right. Can he take the lead today? Friedman, Brenes, Cunningham and Lisandro are still alive.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

For those that care to wager, here's the new bluesq.com odds, the odds listed are to win only, or you can go "each way" and get 1/4 the price:


Jamie Gold 7/1
Erik Friberg 9/1
Jeffrey Lisandro 11/1
William Thorsson 12/1
Ricki Nielsen 14/1
Michael Binger 14/1
Kevin Aaronson 16/1
Siddharth Jain 16/1
James Routos 16/1
Rhett Butler 16/1
Richard Lee 20/1
Paul Wasicka 20/1
Robert Betts 20/1
Allen Cunningham 25/1
Dan Schmiech 25/1
David Einhorn 25/1
Andrew Schreibman 28/1
John Magill 28/1
Kevin O'Donnell 28/1
Eric Lynch 33/1
Rob Roseman 33/1
Lee Kort 33/1
Mark Garner 33/1
Mitch Schock 33/1
Mikael Thuritz 33/1
Prahlad Friedman 33/1
WeiKai Chang 40/1
Eric Molina 40/1
Doug Kim 50/1
Marc Friedmann 50/1
Brian Hansen 50/1
Paul Raeburn 50/1
Cuong Do 66/1
Dustin Holmes 66/1
Rob Berryman 66/1
Fred Goldberg 66/1
Humberto Brenes 66/1
Kyle Bowker 66/1
Sirious Jamshidi 80/1
John Lee 80/1
Richard Wyrick 80/1
Luke Chung 100/1
Leif Force 125/1
Dan Nassif 150/1
Lowell Kim 150/1

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

I'm not informed on sports betting, but arent the odds on Rizen very great and on Friedman quite ok too? Rizen is 33/1 which means he would need 2.9% to win for breaking even on the bet. Currently he has 2.2% of all the chips in play. However his equity is probably higher because:

a) There is a huuuge gap between the first two players and the rest of the field. They got so many chips, that a big part of them are "useless" because they cant double up with them right? This must mean that they are losing some $EV, which will go over to the short and average stacks.
b) Rizen has probably an edge skillwise on a big part of the field. His M is around 20, so he can still benefit from it, play is far from push/fold mode.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
a) There is a huuuge gap between the first two players and the rest of the field. They got so many chips, that a big part of them are "useless" because they cant double up with them right? This must mean that they are losing some $EV, which will go over to the short and average stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

That has to be wrong. The chip leader can take at least as many chips from any player in the field as any other player in the field. It doesn't matter how that stacks as a proportion of his stack (i.e. he can't double up). He has more earning potential than any other player.

For what it's worth I don't bet sports, or play tournament poker.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/images/p...rizenWhite.gif

Rizen's next Podcast is up. It was recorded at the last break on Day 5.

Podcast(Day 5, Last Break, 2.1 million): http://www.pokerxfactor.com/news/

Looks like he ended the night at 1.94 million. He says he'll try to call in again. GL Sir!

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

If you place a bet on bluesq say you getting the 1 of the 25 right? like if i put my 5 bucks to there 125?

I just went to the site, you cant register if your in america?

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you place a bet on bluesq say you getting the 1 of the 25 right? like if i put my 5 bucks to there 125?

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct

[ QUOTE ]
I just went to the site, you cant register if your in america?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not legal for you guys to bet online in most places so it's simpler if they UK online bookmakers do not allow you.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Rizen and Allen Cunningham are both pretty damn good bets on this. And Doug Kim's getting pretty good odds if you wanna rep 2+2.

Prahlad looks good too.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Official Chip Count before we start:

1 Jamie Gold 7,330,000
2 Erik Friberg 5,905,000
3 William Thorsson 3,545,000
4 Rhett Butler 3,210,000
5 Kevin Aaronson 3,190,000
6 Ricki Nielsen 3,170,000
7 Siddharth Jain 3,090,000
8 Michael Binger 3,045,000
9 Jeffrey Lisandro 2,995,000
10 James Routos 2,775,000
11 Richard Lee 2,350,000
12 David Einhorn 2,340,000
13 Robert Betts 2,235,000
14 Andrew Schreibman 2,200,000
15 Dan Schmiech 2,155,000
16 Paul Wasicka 2,055,000
17 Lee Kort 2,005,000
18 John Magill 1,955,000
19 Eric Lynch 1,940,000
20 Rob Roseman 1,845,000
21 Mark Garner 1,810,000
22 Mitch Schock 1,785,000
23 Kevin O'Donnell 1,600,000
23 Prahlad Friedman 1,600,000
25 Mikael Thuritz 1,500,000
26 Paul Raeburn 1,385,000
27 Eric Molina 1,360,000
28 Doug Kim 1,335,000
29 Marc Friedmann 1,315,000
30 WeiKai Chang 1,295,000
31 Allen Cunningham 1,290,000
32 Brian Hansen 1,230,000
33 Rob Berryman 1,150,000
34 Cuong Do 1,115,000
35 Dustin Holmes 1,100,000
36 Fred Goldberg 1,080,000
37 Kyle Bowker 885,000
38 Sirious Jamshidi 845,000
39 John Lee 805,000
40 Richard Wyrick 800,000
41 Humberto Brenes 565,000
42 Luke Chung 560,000
43 Leif Force 510,000
44 Dan Nassif 495,000
45 Lowell Kim 350,000

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

That has to be wrong. The chip leader can take at least as many chips from any player in the field as any other player in the field. It doesn't matter how that stacks as a proportion of his stack (i.e. he can't double up). He has more earning potential than any other player.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you are right mathematically, I'm not sure if I'm confusing % chance to win with $EV. At least in a $EV sense a runaway chiplead is rather benefitting the short stacks.

In a psychological sense, a runaway chiplead in my opinion isnt worth its full value. See this scenario:

Player A: 8 Million Chips
Rest of the Field: 5 Million Chips

Case A: Player A doubles up against another player --> His extra chips dont help him there, he can only gain 5 Million from each player... Maybe his extra chips can help him make a marginally correct call he wouldnt have been able to make if he was in danger of busting out. Maybe they can cause him not to play his A game anymore, because he feels the pressure that he has to win...

Case B: Player A loses allin against another player --> His extra chips benefit him there big. Every other player would be out, while he still has 3 Million chips left. However I think after such a big loss, few players can play their A games, especially in a tourney like the WSOP, so his 3 Million chips are not really worth 3 Million chips anymore.

Thats why I believe a runaway chiplead isnt worth it's exact percentages, an average stack seems to be much better in a sense of achieving optimum performance. I could be flat out wrong though.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
or you can go "each way" and get 1/4 the price:

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain further please.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

I think you are wrong. Especially the whole 3 million chips not being worth 3 million part cause you just lost 5 million. If you want to make such assumptions we can include a million other factors, like the big stack being nervous cause he is a favourite to win, or the small stacks being nervous to bust and therefore playing worse?

The advantage of a big stack is no one can bust you, that's a pretty huge advantage in a tourney.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

That has to be wrong. The chip leader can take at least as many chips from any player in the field as any other player in the field. It doesn't matter how that stacks as a proportion of his stack (i.e. he can't double up). He has more earning potential than any other player.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you are right mathematically, I'm not sure if I'm confusing % chance to win with $EV. At least in a $EV sense a runaway chiplead is rather benefitting the short stacks.

In a psychological sense, a runaway chiplead in my opinion isnt worth its full value. See this scenario:

Player A: 8 Million Chips
Rest of the Field: 5 Million Chips

Case A: Player A doubles up against another player --> His extra chips dont help him there, he can only gain 5 Million from each player... Maybe his extra chips can help him make a marginally correct call he wouldnt have been able to make if he was in danger of busting out. Maybe they can cause him not to play his A game anymore, because he feels the pressure that he has to win...

Case B: Player A loses allin against another player --> His extra chips benefit him there big. Every other player would be out, while he still has 3 Million chips left. However I think after such a big loss, few players can play their A games, especially in a tourney like the WSOP, so his 3 Million chips are not really worth 3 Million chips anymore.

Thats why I believe a runaway chiplead isnt worth it's exact percentages, an average stack seems to be much better in a sense of achieving optimum performance. I could be flat out wrong though.

[/ QUOTE ]

But then there's Case C, where everyone is afraid to go up against you because you have the stack to bust them, and you bully them out of pot after pot.

If the tournament truly were an all-in fest, where your stack essentially did a random walk, I defer to the theory gurus but I suspect your chance of winning would be exactly equal to the percentage of chips in play that you hold.

A large chip lead will always be worth somewhat less, in dollar terms, than your percentage of the chips in play would indicate, because you can only win one prize. For example, you could have half the chips in play, but it's mathematically impossible for you to win half of the prize pool. By the same token, having 5% of the chips in play with 45 left wouldn't quite be worth 5% of the prize pool.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
or you can go "each way" and get 1/4 the price:

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain further please.

[/ QUOTE ]

Each way in this case if you think it'll make the top 4, that way you'll get 1/4 the odds. Using Gold as an example, and each way bet would pay 7/4.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

where can i bet on this?

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Bet365.com still has odds to win or make final table.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Who was the crazy player in Seat 9 of Rizen's table that he talks about in his podcast? He said he was drinking Jack & Cokes all day and making some crazy plays.

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
 

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

i found these odds at bet365. are they any good?


Each-way 1/4 1-2-3
Jamie Gold +600 Bet
Erik Friberg +800 Bet
William Thorsson +900 Bet
Rhett Butler +1000 Bet
Allan Cunningham +1100 Bet
Jeffrey Lisandro +1200 Bet
Michael Binger +1200 Bet
Siddharth Jain +1400 Bet
James Routos +1400 Bet
David Einhorn +1400 Bet
Robert Betts +1400 Bet
Kevin Aaronson +1400 Bet
Ricki Nielsen +1400 Bet
Dan Schmiech +1800 Bet
Andrew Schreibman +1800 Bet
Lee Kort +2000 Bet
Humberto Brenes +2000 Bet
Paul Wasicka +2000 Bet
John Magill +2500 Bet
Prahlad Friedman +2500 Bet
Eric Lynch +3300 Bet
Rob Roseman +4000 Bet
Mark Garner +4000 Bet
Mitch Schock +4000 Bet
Kevin O'Donnell +4000 Bet
Mikael Thuritz +4000 Bet
Paul Raeburn +4000 Bet
Eric Molina +4000 Bet
Weikai Chang +4000 Bet
Richard Lee +5000 Bet
Doug Kim +5000 Bet
Marc Friedmann +5000 Bet
Others On Request

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Who was the crazy player in Seat 9 of Rizen's table that he talks about in his podcast? He said he was drinking Jack & Cokes all day and making some crazy plays.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that would be Eric Molina, the kid who threw his all in button at the chip leader.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Currently Bet365 has 7-1 for Rizen to make it to the final table.
Seems like a great price to me and far better value than opting for an each way bet.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Victor,

I'm betting max on Rizen, Prahlad and Cunningham to make the FT. Also going to bet max on them making 1st and see what happens.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Rizen said Eric Molina is 21 and was drinking Jack and Cokes all day (hence the A10 call). That's gonna be some good TV.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who was the crazy player in Seat 9 of Rizen's table that he talks about in his podcast? He said he was drinking Jack & Cokes all day and making some crazy plays.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that would be Eric Molina, the kid who threw his all in button at the chip leader.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate or link please.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Eric Molina seemed to be a real douchebag. He got a penalty for using the F word and was over on the rail harrassing other tables and continuing to curse.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Elaborate or link please.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.cardplayer.com/multimedia/videos/id/19340


Also:

Sun Aug 06 22:19:00 PDT 2006
Molina Takes One From Gold
With a board showing A632 Gold checks and Molina bets $100,000 into the $200,000 pot. Gold raises to $300,000 total and Molina re-raises all-in for $700,000 more. As Gold ponders the call Molina starts talking to him, "You got caught... just fold... stop wasting time, I have the best hand." Molina then tosses his "all-in" chip at Golds chest and Gold throws it right back at him. Molina continues to talk Gold into folding and eventually Gold folds. Shortly after the pot is raked to Molina he drops an "F-Bomb." Gold calls a floorman over and Molina gets a penalty for 10 mintues. As Molina leaves he tells Gold how much he enjoys the chips he just took off him. Expect these two to continue bucking heads throughout the rest of the tournament.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Rizen is at 7-1 against to make the final table and he has plenty of chips given the blind structure. How is this not a +EV bet.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Victor,

I'm betting max on Rizen, Prahlad and Cunningham to make the FT. Also going to bet max on them making 1st and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the max bet?

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
If the tournament truly were an all-in fest, where your stack essentially did a random walk, I defer to the theory gurus but I suspect your chance of winning would be exactly equal to the percentage of chips in play that you hold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. This is seen easily as a direct consequence of the linearity of the expectation function. If you're taking a bunch of all-ins with no long-term best or worst of it, then all those EV-zero operations have to have a cumulative EV of zero, so if the only possible payouts are zero and all the chips, P(all the chips) must equal your fraction of the chips.

By the way, Doug Kim is probably a good bet but might still be demoralized from his recent defeat to me in heads-up freezeout action. Indeed, I believe this to be the most recent non-tournament poker he has played.

More seriously, I think Rizen (Eric Lynch) is a good bet. I have no idea how good he is, but he probably has an edge enough to compensate for the smallish disparity between his chip percentage and the odds on him, and if there is even a few percent chance that each of the two big chipleaders is bad, that would also be enough to compensate. (That is, so much of the first-place equity is tied up in the leaders that either of them sucking and only being worth two-thirds or whatever of that equity would be a boon for the field.)

--Nate

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Victor,

I'm betting max on Rizen, Prahlad and Cunningham to make the FT. Also going to bet max on them making 1st and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the max bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is listed as 100-something...I'm trying to get it increased with a customer service rep

edit: you can make multiple bets of 100 on the same person

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

ok i just made some bets.

100 on eric lynch final table at +700
200 (accidental) on eric lynch to win at +3300
50 on prahlad to win at +2500

the stakes kinda suck on bet365 as compared to that other site linked.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

eric is also 33:1 against to win....I think bet365 is just going by chip equity and not realizing how much of a skill advantage someone like rizen has with a decent stack.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok i just made some bets.

100 on eric lynch final table at +700
200 (accidental) on eric lynch to win at +3300
50 on prahlad to win at +2500

the stakes kinda suck on bet365 as compared to that other site linked.

[/ QUOTE ]

I made some accidental bets as well and CS is getting them removed.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the tournament truly were an all-in fest, where your stack essentially did a random walk, I defer to the theory gurus but I suspect your chance of winning would be exactly equal to the percentage of chips in play that you hold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed. This is seen easily as a direct consequence of the linearity of the expectation function. If you're taking a bunch of all-ins with no long-term best or worst of it, then all those EV-zero operations have to have a cumulative EV of zero, so if the only possible payouts are zero and all the chips, P(all the chips) must equal your fraction of the chips.

By the way, Doug Kim is probably a good bet but might still be demoralized from his recent defeat to me in heads-up freezeout action. Indeed, I believe this to be the most recent non-tournament poker he has played.

More seriously, I think Rizen (Eric Lynch) is a good bet. I have no idea how good he is, but he probably has an edge enough to compensate for the smallish disparity between his chip percentage and the odds on him, and if there is even a few percent chance that each of the two big chipleaders is bad, that would also be enough to compensate. (That is, so much of the first-place equity is tied up in the leaders that either of them sucking and only being worth two-thirds or whatever of that equity would be a boon for the field.)

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

haha bastard

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok i just made some bets.

100 on eric lynch final table at +700
200 (accidental) on eric lynch to win at +3300
50 on prahlad to win at +2500

the stakes kinda suck on bet365 as compared to that other site linked.

[/ QUOTE ]

I made some accidental bets as well and CS is getting them removed.

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously, this site is impossible to understand.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

Rizen is down to 11/2 to make the final table according to Bet365. Based on his chipcount, his final table odds are around 5/1 so the Bet365 odds are probably still slightly EV+. 7/1 was clearly EV+.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Elaborate or link please.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.cardplayer.com/multimedia/videos/id/19340


Also:

Sun Aug 06 22:19:00 PDT 2006
Molina Takes One From Gold
With a board showing A632 Gold checks and Molina bets $100,000 into the $200,000 pot. Gold raises to $300,000 total and Molina re-raises all-in for $700,000 more. As Gold ponders the call Molina starts talking to him, "You got caught... just fold... stop wasting time, I have the best hand." Molina then tosses his "all-in" chip at Golds chest and Gold throws it right back at him. Molina continues to talk Gold into folding and eventually Gold folds. Shortly after the pot is raked to Molina he drops an "F-Bomb." Gold calls a floorman over and Molina gets a penalty for 10 mintues. As Molina leaves he tells Gold how much he enjoys the chips he just took off him. Expect these two to continue bucking heads throughout the rest of the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lot of these stories get skewed just becasue they are so short - you lose some of the context. Molina seems a little cocky, but I doubt he's a total douche he's made out to be here.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

gildwulf, do you give classes on how to be a baller?

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Shortly after the pot is raked to Molina he drops an "F-Bomb." Gold calls a floorman over and Molina gets a penalty for 10 mintues.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just the most recent example of a player calling the floor for an F-bomb. I guess the most visible was Sheikhan doing it on Matusow on TV at the 2005 ME. It strikes me as such a cry-baby thing to do. Obviously there's a tactical benefit but really, it just seems like such a douche-bag move. It's the poker equivalent of a football player's dive for a penalty.

Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shortly after the pot is raked to Molina he drops an "F-Bomb." Gold calls a floorman over and Molina gets a penalty for 10 mintues.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just the most recent example of a player calling the floor for an F-bomb. I guess the most visible was Sheikhan doing it on Matusow on TV at the 2005 ME. It strikes me as such a cry-baby thing to do. Obviously there's a tactical benefit but really, it just seems like such a douche-bag move. It's the poker equivalent of a football player's dive for a penalty.

[/ QUOTE ]

he deserved it...considering he threw his all-in button at the guy earlier.