How would you play - a late live home MTT question
 

Please let me know how you would play this AND why. There are several points pulling in different directions and I am wondering what players' opinions about the hand are.

This is from a home NLHE MTT. Started with 20 players, down to 8 at final table.

Background: First hour was re-buy and saw some action. This is about 3.5 hours into tourney and players have tightened up and a pre-flop raise will usually win the pot at this point.

There are 3 small stacks, 2 fairly big stacks, a huge stack, and me in fourth place. The tourney pays the top 3 spots.

I have played in a few hands at the final table, but have not gotten past the flop.

Player of most interest is in BB+5. Early in the tourney, immediately after my only re-buy, I took all of his chips, forcing him to re-buy. He played pretty aggresively during the re-buy period, but I'm pretty sure he has not yet played a hand at the final table.

Blinds are 5,000/10,000 - no ante

SB (80,000)
BB (60,000)
BB+1 Me (180,000) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB+2 (80,000)
BB+3 (400,000)
BB+4 (1,200,000)
BB+5 (600,000)
Button (45,000) - nursing his last 2 beers, he has folded most hands

Action

I raise to 25,000 and it is folded to BB+5. He quietly raises it to 75,000. The button deliberates and mutters for a few minutes, then goes all-in.

I'm pretty sure he has a good hand. I ask him What do have, Queens? and he doesn't answer. Somebody says, No, he has Aces. I say, No, he doesn't have aces. Is it queens? He shakes his head slightly and says, Higher .

What do you do and why?

Re: How would you play - a late live home MTT question
 

what the heck are your seating positions, BB+5???

First, learn the positions. Second, it wouldn't be big blind +5, because you work backward from the BB. so SB would be BB-1. Just an FYI.

Re: How would you play - a late live home MTT question
 

And third, this is the most retardedly easy fold ever.

Where's the YSSCKY poll option?

Re: How would you play - a late live home MTT question
 

Dude, fold this with the quickness. A8o? WTF.

Re: How would you play - a late live home MTT question
 

A8o UTG??? Please fold this PF, I know the ace looks pretty, but this is an easy fold.

Re: How would you play - a late live home MTT question
 

Fold. And stop asking such silly questions.

More detail on the problem
 

First of all, let me say thank you to the welcoming committee for reminding me why I had not posted here for nearly a year. For those of you who actually want to analyze the problem and not criticize its format, let me outline it in a bit more detail.

1) I am currently in fourth place (top 3 pay) and am next to post the blind. Some of you may feel it is better to wait for a premium hand, but my M is currently 12, with an effective M of 9.6. After the blinds pass me, M = 11, with an effective M of 8.8. In a few hands when the blinds go up, my M=5.5, with an effective M=4.4 (lower if someone gets knocked out).

2) Most hands had been won with a small raise, so there was a good chance of picking up 15,000 with no resistance.

3) There is currently 160,000 in the pot and it costs me 50,000 to call. If only the big stack was in the pot, a call is almost mandatory. I have 155,000 left if I fold. The expected value if I go all-in right now (and he calls-which he should) is about 178,360.

Hand........................Chance....My Odds... Expected Payout
Mid Pair (TT-KK)........65%.............30%............ 101,400
Under Pair.................10%.............45%.......... ... 23,400
A w/overcard.............10%.............28%.......... ....14,560
AA..........................…5%.............30%... .............7,800
Bluff/undercards...... .10%..............60%..............31,200
Total............................................. .....…….......178,360

Even if I KNEW he had a mid pair, I still have an expected payout of 156,000, making all-in a barely profitable play.

4) The fact that the button went all-in increases the pot, but hurts my odds. I know he doesn’t have a monster. It is very unlikely he even has an ace, as he actually took the time away from his 8th beer of the night to think about it.

5) If I fold, I am left with 155,000. If I go all-in pre-flop and get called I will win 520,000 if I take the whole pot. If I win just the side pot, I have 385,000.

6) I actually went through these steps (in a simplified form) that night.

Now that you have thought about it, too. Tell me…do you still fold?

Re: More detail on the problem
 

[ QUOTE ]

Now that you have thought about it, too. Tell me…do you still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. Sorry dude, I don't think it's close.

Re: How would you play - a late live home MTT question
 

you gotta fold pf with A8o 8-handed UTG - the way you played it def. fold to the raise

Re: How would you play - a late live home MTT question
 

LOL

I love that he went through all this work to prove 2+2=5.

Maybe the reason you haven't posted here in a year is because you really don't care about improving and care more about convincing others that your ridiculously bad play is justified?

Oh, and...

[ QUOTE ]
If only the big stack was in the pot, a call is almost mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Laughing your ass off at this is almost mandatory as well.

Re: More detail on the problem
 

First off I want to say that the people mocking your post for it's format are being pretty retarded. It doesn't use the standard form, but it's perfectly readable, and no information is lost because the formatting is slightly different.

After that though, this is a ridiculously easy fold. Raising UTG here is marginal at best, and after you are reraised by BB+5 your equity sucks. The fact that the Button is in the pot makes it somewhat more attractive, but essentially you are deciding whether to play for all your chips. You have almost no fold equity against BB+5, so if you play, you are risking 180k to win about 425k, giving you about 1.5:1 Your equity in this pot is probably close to 30%, and you need at least 40% to play this profitably. Fold this because it's clearly -EV.

Has anyone got a serious answer?
 

All throughout the forums I see people complaining that problems are too simple or don’t have enough information in them. I take the time to post a problem involving:

1) Late tournament action
2) Position play
3) Payout schedule
4) Low M’s
5) History between 2 players
6) A close call in pot odds
7) Mixed stack sizes
8) Psychology of a tell
9) Even a drunk guy taking the time to think about his hand!

If the best answer you can give to all this is, Gee whiz, I always fold A8 offsuit UTG, then you can come join our home league anytime. We will be happy to blind you off and take your money.

C’mon guys, why waste your time belittling other people’s posts just to get your numbers up? Give me an intelligent response!

Something like:

I would need at least AJ here and I would have gone all-in and this is why…

I have found it is better to wait for one of the four big stacks to go all-in and then fold my way into the money.

I like to be solidly in the red zone before I play a middle ace and this is why…

Re: Has anyone got a serious answer?
 

Please invite me to your home game. I'm sure I'd be very unsuccessful.

I'd need AQ+/TT+ here. Happy?

Who gives a [censored] how much time you take to post meaningless details? You raised with a [censored] hand and got reraised. End of story; fold. Who cares how drunk your friend is?

And if you think pot odds even BEGIN to justify doing anything but folding, you lack even a basic understanding of the term.

Good day, sir.

Re: Has anyone got a serious answer?
 

Pot odds is really the most important part of this, at this point. Please give me a reasonable range for your opponent that makes this "close" from a pot odds perspective.

Re: Has anyone got a serious answer?
 

You're getting 3:1 pot odds, I'd say you need at least 4:1 to make this a reasonable call.