c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

Whats up SSNL crew

As you all have read (and if you haven't, you need to), Fimbulwinter put together a pretty sweet set of guidelines for moving up limits. You can find that list of guidelines here.

Munkey, a good new poster, is analyzing fim's stuff... he made a killer post a little while ago that you should check out here.

Fimbulwinters guidelines weren't right for me though... I took shots too aggressively and without the proper confidence and skill to play at higher limits, and when I ran bad, my confidence was lost and I doubted whether or not I could even beat the game at its lowest limits. I thought about giving it up.
However, now, my poker career has taken me a long way from my trip (and subsequent return trips) to busto... I recently moved from 25nl to 50nl to 100nl to 200nl in a couple of months (beginning of june until now), and I am going to dabble in 400nl very shortly I think. How did I do it? How can you do it???
Here is my easy to follow plan:
Playing winning poker is about two things-- confidence and skill.

PART 1: Confidence
For me, I gained confidence from having two things: a complete bankroll and an absolute knowledge that I am a winning player. The only way to be sure you're a winning player at any given limit is to beat that limit consistently for a considerable number of hands... so thats what you are going to do. Play the limit you're at for 20k hands AT LEAST.. When you're done, check your ptbb/100... if you don't think its high enough, do it again.

Thats a lot of playing you say? Well... a lot of playing results in a lot of skill.

PART 2: Skill
So now you've been playing a lot (like I did), and lets say after 20k hands of 25nl 6max you beat the game for 4ptbb/100 (like I did). Well you weren't satisfied with that, so you played another 20k hands and raised that to 6ptbb. Now, you decide to move up. Well you now have the confidence of beating the game for 40k hands, and the skill of 40k hands... which should be more than enough improvement to your game to help you crush the next limit up for 20k hands. Plus, now you KNOW that if you ever need to move down for any reason... you can beat the 25nl game. You have the data (and money) to prove it.

Ah, yes... the good stuff. Money. 5ptbb/100 hands for 20k hands comes out to be 1000ptbb, or 2000 big blinds, or 20 buyins. Lets say we started with 20 buyins... that now gives us 40 buyins... or enough to be rolled for the next limit up.

I 6table 6max, and I play a couple hours a day on average. I can play 20k hands every two weeks. This is the fast track to a massive bankroll while creating a confident and skilled poker player.

Quick recap-
1)start with at least 20 buyins for your limit.
2)Play 20k hands and evaluate.
3)If satisfied with PTBB/100, move up. If not, repeat step 2.
4)Repeat step 1.

Oh, and posting a lot on 2p2 doesn't hurt either.

See you all at the top.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

Nooooooooo i did a Pokey

[censored]

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

Good post bw, very good advice.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

vnh -- I just moved up to NL50 this week after 20K hands at NL25 and know exactly what you mean. It was tempting to move up after crushing the game in my first 5K hands, but variance brought me back down to earth and I eventually took my time developing the confidence and skill as discussed above.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nooooooooo i did a Pokey

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AAHAHAHAHAH LOL

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Nooooooooo i did a Pokey

[censored]

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AAHAHAHAHAH LOL

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Whats a pokey?

Anyway, This is one way of doing it and the more sensile one. But I think instead of moving striaght up to 50NL from 25NL and not looking back you should set a loss limit - say 5 buyins. Move back down if you lose it to rebuild.

Variance could get you but its not too likely and you should be able to stay up with your shots if you are skilled

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

BW good post.

However, 6 PTBB/100 at 25NL is not very good. You can do 10 PTBB/100 at that level with a nitty TAG style. Perhaps you know that and just like playing LAG for fun and practice, that's cool, just making sure you know.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

2400 < 2500

Close.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

cbloom-

I know that 6ptbb/100 is not great... but I had some severe variance issues (KK was not kind to me) which I think was responsible for it.

Also, I am 6tabling 6max, so 6ptbb isn't terrible.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

Nice post.

It's irrelevant to talk about your 'winrate' unless you have >100K hands at a level btw.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

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Also, I am 6tabling 6max, so 6ptbb isn't terrible.

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6ptbb is an excellent winrate. People skew their opinions so easily cause its easy to go on a huge heater vs idiots at small stakes, and most people who successfully make the jump to mid-high stakes start out running well with a run of 20k hands at 9-14ptbb.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

BW --

First, 20k hands is a pretty small sample size. If you think that 20k hands is enough to prove a winning player, well, that surprises me.

Second, I was hoping you meant 16 PTBB/100 at NL 25. 6-tabling shouldn't make that much of an impact at that level. I have no doubt you're a winning player, but that just goes to show that your sample size for targeting win-rate and then moving up is muy pequeno.

I would guess that there is all this talk about moving up strategies lately because of Tickner, but it's a little strange to see. I'm not sure there is one correct approach, and I don't know why everyone seems to be searching for the Holy Grail on this.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

Also...

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Well... a lot of playing results in a lot of skill.


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I would strongly disagree with this. Practice does not make perfect. Practice makes permanent.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

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First, 20k hands is a pretty small sample size.

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Second, I was hoping you meant 16 PTBB/100 at NL 25. 6-tabling shouldn't make that much of an impact at that level. I have no doubt you're a winning player, but that just goes to show that your sample size for targeting win-rate and then moving up is muy pequeno.

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After 20K hands, if we run at 6BB/100, our true win rate may be nearer to 0. Of course, we may still be a 10+ BB/100 winner. 20K is much too small to claim a reliable winrate. However, 20K at 25NL with any profit is good enough to move up if one is properly rolled for 50NL and understands bankroll management.

SSNL is a place to learn the game, and we come closer to mastering the game as we move up from level to level. If we are pretty sure that we are a winner and we are well rolled, then we can move up. Who cares if I'm a 2BB/100 or a 20BB/100 at 25NL; in fact, it is possible that a certain playing style would gross a higher BB/100 at 50NL than 25NL, based on the average opponent's style of play.

However, I realize that I have overlooked a very important point: one key thing that all NL hold'em players must learn is how to adapt to a certain set of variables. If we have to change our style of play to beat 25NL--where most opponents play very erratically--as opposed to a higher stakes style of play, then we should reason out how to do so: and so we reason that a TAG style seems to be the best option. And as we move up in limits, we start to see this type of variation on a table-by-table and a player-by-player basis. We have to be able to pick out the correct play with a certain hand against a certain style of player based on that player's hand range and tendencies, etc.

I think that this is very difficult to grasp at 25NL; actually, it may even be -EV to give your opponents the credit of playing in a predictable manner. This is why I advocate moving up from 25NL with any winning rate, so long as one understands the most basic of poker strategy.

This thread has solid advice. All it takes to move up is a substantial bankroll and some confidence that you can beat the game, along with the modesty to admit that you always have room for improvement.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

Well said, QC.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

jamougha, epdaws--

The number I chose (20k hands) is what I felt was necessary for me to feel confident that I can beat that level. You are right in saying that the winrate is basically pointless... when I played, to have KK be my 5th biggest losing hand after 35k hands and still have a ptbb of 6, I felt confident enough in beating 25nl to move up.

quentin-
Well said. I was going to (but forgot to) include a little bit on modesty and the constant need for improvement. There is a big difference between confidence and cockiness. If you feel yourself straining against both variance and bad play, drop down to a limit you beat before. You should have plenty of a roll at that point to be safe there, but if not, drop down again. There's no shame in it, and once you start winning again you'll be back up in no time.

Oh yeah, and
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Also...

Quote:
Well... a lot of playing results in a lot of skill.




I would strongly disagree with this. Practice does not make perfect. Practice makes permanent.

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Nothing has helped me improve more than seeing situations thousands and thousands of times. Certainly it is possible to practice the wrong things and get those ingrained, but in my opinion 2p2 is the place to take areas of your game in which you're not sure of. Practice does help you narrow down your opponents ranges and to work on evaluating your FE, board texture, developing reads, etc. There is no substitute for experience.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Nooooooooo i did a Pokey

[censored]

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AAHAHAHAHAH LOL

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Whats a pokey?

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http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c1...er2/baluga.gif

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

edited post title to reflect your baller status.

nice post. I think. I just skimmed it. It was long so it must have been good. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

Nice post. I think my main problem has been the confidence part. My game has certainly improved as I moved up, and I did make a few big changes between NL100 and NL200. But on the whole I think I could have moved up much more quickly had I been absolutely convinced I could beat the next level. But not being convinced like this leads me to do all sorts of ridiculous things.

e.g. I have some lousy hand on the button, raise some limper, get a call from the BB. Flop is ragged, doesn't help me. Dude checks, I bet, he check-raises me. My 3-betting frequency is way higher when I am at 400NL than at 200NL because I am paranoid about people taking advantage of me. I don't have the confidence and, more importantly, the patience that comes with that confidence.

Then it's weird, at some point I just become convinced that I can beat a level and at that point become hugely more profitable. Actually I think once I start taking shots two levels up I become confident in the one level up (e.g. moved up to 200NL, start taking shots at 400NL, now feel completely confident at 200NL).

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

With skill, BTW, I think it is much more important to constantly evaluate how you played individual hands than it is to worry about your ptbb/100 after 20K hands. That doesn't really tell you much -- I regularly run at 15 PTBB/100 and at 0 PTBB/100 over stretches like that, even at levels where I am pretty sure that my true winrate is 5-7 PTBB/100.

Looking at important hands doesn't get at certain subtle points in your game (like you are defending your blind a bit too much and bleeding a bit more than you should, or you aren't stealing blinds as much as you could). So you need to also use PT to look for these issues. But winrate is probably the leats useful thing to be looking at to judge your skill.

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

BWAHAHAHAHAHA.

nice post.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

Nice post. I never read Fimbulwinter post, thanks for the link. I know I saw a pretty long post about when to c/r compared when to b3b can anybody help me in finding this?

Found it. Dbitel's Pooh-bah post.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post. I never read Fimbulwinter post, thanks for the link. I know I saw a pretty long post about when to c/r compared when to b3b can anybody help me in finding this?

Found it. Dbitel's Pooh-bah post.

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It's all in FAQ/Master Sticky!!!

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

step 1: run hot
step 2: move up

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

Nice post Baluga

This confidence part is the most important bit for me. I think your right playing alot hands at a level is the only way to give yourself it. When I move up I need to stop playing slightly differently at first too(like yad) but really should just try and play my normal game

I'm gonna finish 20k hands at NL50 6max and then maybe move up - I was considering only 10k hands but think this is too small.

Even though 20k isn't enough to give our true winrate it does imply that we're more likely to be a winning player where as the opposite means we're more likely to need to improve. In this game with uncertainty we have to go on all the information we can get.

Hopefully I'll soon be making monies with the Whale -
though not at your table. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

[ QUOTE ]
So now you've been playing a lot (like I did), and lets say after 20k hands of 25nl 6max you beat the game for 4ptbb/100 (like I did). Well you weren't satisfied with that, so you played another 20k hands and raised that to 6ptbb.

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Chances are this is variance. It doesn't really matter though, if your winrate is positive, you are almost guaranteed to make more money at a higher stake.

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

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Nooooooooo i did a Pokey

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Remember this one...

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I know a lot of you are interested in loosening up your game, I hope this was somewhat of a brief outline. It's not as long as Pokey's... but then again, Pokey can't count to 1600.

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Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

Baluga - tl;dr ...

well OK I sort of skimmed it and then read it properly when it turned out that it had good stuff inside.

"Confidence is the preference for the habitual player of what is known as (Pokerlife!)" as Blur almost said once.

Be confident - be positive - be aggressive - and you'll tend to win a lot more than you lose.

Of course you need some kind of skill to know when to be aggressive - who to apply the thumbscrews to and when - and what cards are pretty to look at but useless to play.

My new improved theorem of Poker playing states:

"If you are not confident that you are the best player sitting at the table - then get up and find a table where you are"

Balanced against that always be brutally honest with yourself about exactly how good you really are - realise that no matter how hot you run or how much you learn there is always much more to still discover about poker - there is no substitute for experience at some point in their lives every player who hs played the game knew less about poker than you do now, there is no shame in slugging it out at the low low limits (which in comparison to higher limits are much easier to beat cos people are soooo loose) building up a bankroll and building your confidence.

Learn to stand up - then learn to stand up well then learn to walk, run, stand on your head turn cartwheels and run rings around other players later...

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

bump b/c its not in the sticky.

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

nice post. When are you doing the well, or did I miss it already?

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

Nice post, it's in the favourites now. I think it's good on several levels but more than anything it's good as drives home the need for confidence in yourself and your skills to feel comfortable taking shots and not to play scared. It's amazing how the psychololgical side of the game is over looked.

Just wish I could play 20,000 hands in 2 weeks. Given my commitments it's more like 20,000 hands in 8 months!

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

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When are you doing the well, or did I miss it already?

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Haven't been in it yet, but I want to.

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

i need to get my confidence back. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: c/t: Making big money with the Whale
 

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bump b/c its not in the sticky.

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Who's the arbiter of stickiness? I'd say this one is marginal.

And, having said that, I imagine BW will flog me in Round 2 of the HU tourney.

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

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i need to get my confidence back.

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keep a full roll and run good.

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

bump

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

good strategy

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

What do you do if you're pretty breakeven or even losing money against the TAGs and make all your money against horrible players?

I feel like the only reason why I win at the rate I do is table selection. As soon as the horrible players leave I find a new table.

So, effectively, I'm not confident against good players but I'm very confident that I can beat the limit. As you move up the players are a lot better...

Should I be focusing more on exploting the regulars? How did you get through this problem?

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

IDK if I agree with some of the stuff you said. I think that this has worked for you and that's great. However, I think these things are intertwined for you. The fact that you beat the game allowed you to be confident, but one needs confidence to beat the game?

I feel like you are linking these two due to your recent play. I've been told you're doing very well, and that's good to hear, but I have seen your confidence level shoot up as a result. What was there before your recent success?

I just feel like this is more something that you have found, but doesn't solve the issue that 95% of players experience when moving up, and that is the feeling of uncertainly wrt beating the next level. You can tell anyone "srsly you can do it be confident!!!" but I really doubt it does much for them until they play the hands.

EDIT: Also saying something like "oh well after you beat this limit for x bb/100 then you should either move up or just play more hands and beat it for more" doesn't sit with me; you imply that kind of success is expected.

Re: c/t: Making big monies with the Whale
 

I [censored] hate myself for responding to a really really old thread... sorry lol I assume your thought process is different now.