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-   -   TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=173004)

Ampelmann 07-28-2006 11:27 AM

TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
I haven't played many hands, but the table seemed pretty loose (this hand is an indication for that). The only player I know to be somewhat decent is the CO (and he folds anyway).

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Hero ?

I have TP, great. It's not impossible that someone has me outkicked (4.5 outs for me) and that someone has a straight (1.5 outs) or several might be on straight draws (bad reverse implied odds). Even if I have the best hand and nobody has a OESD, many overcards can come (bad reverse implied odds). However, the pot is huge (12 SB) and I close the action.

Without the backdoor draw I think I'd fold, but here?

kerowo 07-28-2006 11:29 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
Pretty close but I think it's a peal, should be pretty easy to get away from if the turn isn't a big club or a 3.

Str8Fish 07-28-2006 11:30 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
you call even without the bdfd. Why would you fold top pair?

kerowo 07-28-2006 11:32 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
you call even without the bdfd. Why would you fold top pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there is one kicker you beat on a somewhat coordinated board? Granted not much aggression shown but how often do you think this holds up?

Ampelmann 07-28-2006 11:35 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
you call even without the bdfd. Why would you fold top pair?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because it's not unlikely that I'm behind already, either against a better T or a str8 (or even 97), and there are tons of cards that will kill me if I'm ahead (or that at least would give me a hard time to continue).

Against such a big field a weak TP with no kicker wins almost never. I'm sure it wins less than 8% of the time.

Str8Fish 07-28-2006 11:55 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
I was saying that you were thinking of folding the flop with the fantastic pot odds to two pair or trips on the turn? I wouldn't ever fold in this situation.

Aaron W. 07-28-2006 11:59 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
Folding sucks. I'd peel here without the BDFD.

Even if you think you're dominated, you've got 4.5 outs to victory (BDFD + 3 two pair outs). Also, you're closing the action so you don't need to worry about getting raised. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that there are 12 FREAKING SMALL BETS IN THE POT and it only costs you ONE to peel and see what happens.

[ QUOTE ]
you fold too damn much.

[/ QUOTE ]

bozlax 07-28-2006 12:10 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you call even without the bdfd. Why would you fold top pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there is one kicker you beat on a somewhat coordinated board? Granted not much aggression shown but how often do you think this holds up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Somewhere around never. But, you're getting 12:1 to try and improve it...that's almost enough to draw to just the 3s, alone.

kerowo 07-28-2006 12:15 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you call even without the bdfd. Why would you fold top pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there is one kicker you beat on a somewhat coordinated board? Granted not much aggression shown but how often do you think this holds up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Somewhere around never. But, you're getting 12:1 to try and improve it...that's almost enough to draw to just the 3s, alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I agree it's a call. I wouldn't if it was two back to me though.

Romulus141 07-28-2006 12:18 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Folding sucks. I'd peel here without the BDFD.

Even if you think you're dominated, you've got 4.5 outs to victory (BDFD + 3 two pair outs). Also, you're closing the action so you don't need to worry about getting raised. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that there are 12 FREAKING SMALL BETS IN THE POT and it only costs you ONE to peel and see what happens.

[ QUOTE ]
you fold too damn much.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

When I was reading this thread, this Ed Miller post was exactly what popped in my mind almost immediately.

Easy call. UI, check the turn and see what happens, if there is a bet plus some overcalls, I think you can safely fold then.

Dustangel 07-28-2006 12:21 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
Grunch:

Fold preflop.
I think you can raise flop for value here. I'd be suprised if someone 3-bet or fold after your raise, and your winning odds are better than 5:1. Even if I'm wrong at that, calling is perfectly acceptable.

Dustangel 07-28-2006 12:34 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
BB can bet with any pair, set or straight. After that, everyone will start thinking along the lines of "ooh, 8:1" etc. If the table is loose, all sorts of Axs will call. So I think TP will hold here often enough to warrant a call.

Romulus141 07-28-2006 12:35 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Grunch:

Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's in the SB. Completing in an unraised pot with any two suited cards is almost always correct.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can raise flop for value here. I'd be suprised if someone 3-bet or fold after your raise, and your winning odds are better than 5:1. Even if I'm wrong at that, calling is perfectly acceptable.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'd be check-raising by doing that, and this situation doesn't really warrant that. He'd be trapping the field, no one is going to fold, he doesn't have a strong hand in a multi-way pot, so he'd just bloat the pot when he doesn't have enough equity. And being 3-bet here would be terrible. Calling is the correct play here.

bozlax 07-28-2006 12:38 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yea, I agree it's a call. I wouldn't if it was two back to me though.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it were 2 back to you a) you wouldn't be getting 12:1, b) you wouldn't be closing the action, and c) you'd be sure you didn't have the best hand. That's a clear fold.

Dustangel 07-28-2006 12:49 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
He's in the SB. Completing in an unraised pot with any two suited cards is almost always correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is .25/.50. SB is only .10, so he must call another .15 to complete, getting pot odds of 11.6:1. I don't see how this is +EV with T3s.

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is the correct play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it over and I agree.

bozlax 07-28-2006 12:56 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is .25/.50. SB is only .10, so he must call another .15 to complete, getting pot odds of 11.6:1. I don't see how this is +EV with T3s.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is how:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

25,170,868,800 games 29.359 secs 857,347,620 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.5836 % 31.71% 02.87% { 72o }
Hand 2: 65.4164 % 62.54% 02.87% { random }


---

Edit: ok, maybe that's a little snarky. The point is, unless somebody's showing strength no hand is a big enough underdog against a bunch of other hands to give up better than 10:1 pot odds. Completing with nearly any 2 from the SB with 6 limpers is going to work out well for you, provided you are confident you'll be able to play your hand well postflop.

Aaron W. 07-28-2006 02:48 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's in the SB. Completing in an unraised pot with any two suited cards is almost always correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is .25/.50. SB is only .10, so he must call another .15 to complete, getting pot odds of 11.6:1. I don't see how this is +EV with T3s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop play is not about immediate pot odds. It's always about implied odds. Do you flop a good enough hand 8% of the time? (Good enough means flush draw, two pair, trips, sometimes top pair...)

Xhad 07-28-2006 02:54 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
Dustangel:

In a pot this multiway the BB could consider calling a single raise with T3s.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post5432754

Bodizapha 07-28-2006 04:32 PM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
Gotta call here. Pot is big and you are holding top pair.

Ed would be upset if you folded here.

Ampelmann 07-29-2006 12:52 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Folding sucks. I'd peel here without the BDFD.

Even if you think you're dominated, you've got 4.5 outs to victory (BDFD + 3 two pair outs). Also, you're closing the action so you don't need to worry about getting raised. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that there are 12 FREAKING SMALL BETS IN THE POT and it only costs you ONE to peel and see what happens.

[ QUOTE ]
you fold too damn much.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that post, and I always think about it when I'm in situations like this. But that doesn't mean I should misapply it every time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ampelmann 07-29-2006 12:57 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. I complete the SB with almost any two suited (only almost, since here small blind &lt; big blind/2). With so many people in I get great odds if I make a flush. Folding preflop here would be a clear mistake, imo.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can raise flop for value here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. Our equity edge here is marginal at best. A lot of cards can crush us on the turn, so we expect our equity to change dramatically when the next card comes. So if I want to raise this sometimes, this is a perfect situation where I want to wait for the turn to raise.

Ampelmann 07-29-2006 01:18 AM

Re: TP no kicker + BDFD, call flop?
 
I called and caught running clubs to drag a nice pot.

It turned out that UTG held pocket K's (interesting move) and MP2 flopped a straight with 86 (he bet the turn when it was checked to him).


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