Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

This was a live MTT, $500 buy in, we're in about the 13th level, I've been doing well, won my last few pots. Been very aggressive. At the final 2 tables, 163 entered, final 17

CL w/ ~145k
UTG villain has about 125k

Blinds 1200/2400 ante 400

UTG tries to raise to 9400, but says raise 7000, so raises to a total of 7k

I'm right behind and look at:

Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I think and raise 20k more

Folds to villain who thinks for about 15 sec and calls.

Flop:

9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain thinks for about 5 sec and moves AI

Villain is a tough player, been raising a lot, has only showed down good hands when raising PF. Also seems to be a good reader.

What hands am I beating here? If I'm up against only a single club, is it worth it to gamble on a 50/50 shot? Hero thinks a while and...

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

hands like this make me so happy i don't play tournaments. i could not imagine folding here.

ok carry on

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

Is this so uninteresting...

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

I'd probably say there's an 80% chance he's got AK/AQ w/ a ace of clubs. Because that's the only hand I play this hand that way with.

With that said, you've got a TON of chips left...I probably lay it down.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

with your chip position and control of the table, i'm pretty sure this is a fairly standard fold.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

Anything from the morning crowd?

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

I call. If he had AA-KK, he would probably reraise preflop, and probably would bet smaller here. Similarly, a set or flush bets smaller. He probably has Ac. He certainly could be well ahead, but it is more likely he is way behind with JJ/TT or something, likely with a club.

If he has Ac, he is the slight favorite with AK and the slight underdog otherwise. There is obviously major pot odds with 62K in the pot and villain pushing 98K in.

The payouts in these are top heavy and you won't be the chips leader if you fold. I call and gamble to win the tournament. I really think that folding in this situation is very weak/tight.

Preflop, I might just flat call, given villain's position and mine. If villain or someone else put in a third raise preflop, you are in a tricky situaiton, although you probably have to call.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

I feel like I have been saying this a lot lately, but...

maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not folding.

He overbet shoves, sure looks like the Ac (probably AK-AQ) to me. If he does it with the nuts, awesome, great play. But I think there is a real chance this is TT-JJ with a club a well. The only hand we dont 'like' to see is AK, with a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (other than a made flush or a set that is.

I can see why people could fold here, I just wouldnt do it.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

Now to the real question, suppose we can put him on TT-JJ w/ a club. We are 50/50 to win the pot (53/47), now is that enough of an edge late in this tourney to call off almost all of our chips? Is it worth it to gamble here to get a MONSTER chip lead or possibly bust out (I'm not ITM yet, as it is a flat payout 6-15 of $600 and skyrockets from there), or should I wait for a better spot to win against some of the weaker players?

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

Getting 1.6-1 as a favorite and not giving a crap about winning $100 I call. Its +EV, it's the play to "win" not "place", you are knocking out a tough opponent, this play will satisfy the "gamble" in you, and I imagine there is another trny tomorrow.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

If your saying your Chris Bigler, then you fold faceup to Jen harman.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
If your saying your Chris Bigler, then you fold faceup to Jen harman.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good catch...

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

This is a pretty easy fold. If you're ahead you're not ahead by much and if you're behind you're drawing nearly dead. Your odds stink. I'd make it more to play PF btw.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy fold. If you're ahead you're not ahead by much and if you're behind you're drawing nearly dead. Your odds stink. I'd make it more to play PF btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain raises 5600 and I re-raise 20k more, how much more could I raise? It's more than a pot sized raise. Raising more PF, in this big of a tourney, is out of the question. PF is definitely not the problem here. (maybe a call, but that is borderline (maybe not so borderline) weak/tight)

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

Sorry I read that as though you raised to 20K, not another 20K (making it 27K total.)

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

Looks like villian's line is something like 88-QQ, AcJx/AcQx/AcKx/AxKc. Perhaps AXcc or AK(no clubs). . . .

Problem is that your a coinflip favorite against the AcJx/AcQx, and a slight coinflip dog to AcKx. 99 made a set against you, so you're only really beating 88/TT/JJ, but you're only a 3:2 favorite (well, 1.3:1) against any pair with a club in their hand . . .NOt to mention drawing virtually dead to AXcc. . . .

(Your opponent is about 55% to have a club in their hand.)

THe pot is laying 1.6:1 . . . . don't have time to do the extended math, but it certainly isn't screaming for a call.

If you fold, you've still got 119K and will be 2nd CL with an M of 18. If you call and lose, you're crippled. If you call and win, you'll have about 280K in chips.

This seems a fairly close decision, so I'd make it based on how I was doing at the table. If I'm beating the table up, then this is an easy fold. If this has become a very tough table and my stack is dwindling down, then I might call and go for the home run here . . .

You said you've been doing very well, so easy fold . . .

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

FYI - Pokerstove won't do a range with suited hands, so here's a rough idea of the most optimistic scenario (he moves in with 88-QQ/AA/AJo+/AJs+)

________equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.1937 % 56.52% 01.67% { QdQh }
Hand 2: 41.8063 % 40.14% 01.67% { AA, QQ-88, AJs+, AJo+ }

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like villian's line is something like 88-QQ, AcJx/AcQx/AcKx/AxKc. Perhaps AXcc or AK(no clubs). . . .

Problem is that your a coinflip favorite against the AcJx/AcQx, and a slight coinflip dog to AcKx. 99 made a set against you, so you're only really beating 88/TT/JJ, but you're only a 3:2 favorite (well, 1.3:1) against any pair with a club in their hand . . .NOt to mention drawing virtually dead to AXcc. . . .

(Your opponent is about 55% to have a club in their hand.)

THe pot is laying 1.6:1 . . . . don't have time to do the extended math, but it certainly isn't screaming for a call.

If you fold, you've still got 119K and will be 2nd CL with an M of 18. If you call and lose, you're crippled. If you call and win, you'll have about 280K in chips.

This seems a fairly close decision, so I'd make it based on how I was doing at the table. If I'm beating the table up, then this is an easy fold. If this has become a very tough table and my stack is dwindling down, then I might call and go for the home run here . . .

You said you've been doing very well, so easy fold . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we can remove AQ and QQ from his likely holdings. KK reraises Preflop leaving AK, 10-JJ. Since you have stated there is ~50% he does not have a club, he is likely drawing to a 2 outer....easy call.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like villian's line is something like 88-QQ, AcJx/AcQx/AcKx/AxKc. Perhaps AXcc or AK(no clubs). . . .

Problem is that your a coinflip favorite against the AcJx/AcQx, and a slight coinflip dog to AcKx. 99 made a set against you, so you're only really beating 88/TT/JJ, but you're only a 3:2 favorite (well, 1.3:1) against any pair with a club in their hand . . .NOt to mention drawing virtually dead to AXcc. . . .

(Your opponent is about 55% to have a club in their hand.)

THe pot is laying 1.6:1 . . . . don't have time to do the extended math, but it certainly isn't screaming for a call.

If you fold, you've still got 119K and will be 2nd CL with an M of 18. If you call and lose, you're crippled. If you call and win, you'll have about 280K in chips.

This seems a fairly close decision, so I'd make it based on how I was doing at the table. If I'm beating the table up, then this is an easy fold. If this has become a very tough table and my stack is dwindling down, then I might call and go for the home run here . . .

You said you've been doing very well, so easy fold . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we can remove AQ and QQ from his likely holdings. KK reraises Preflop leaving AK, 10-JJ. Since you have stated there is ~50% he does not have a club, he is likely drawing to a 2 outer....easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP said hero is being aggressive and has won some recent pots . . . thus I think villian's calling range of hero's RR is much larger. I agree that KK RR's here.

I don't see why we take AQ out even if he is tighter, there's still 8 card combinations that make AQ, 3 of which either have a flush draw or the made flush. . . .

As for drawing to a 2 outer, only 88/TT/JJ are drawing to a 2 outer if they don't have a club. If they do, they have 11 outs against us . . . and with the pairs, 50% of the card combinations have a club. So if we just put him on 88/TT/JJ, then 50% of the time he has 11 outs and 50% of the time he's got 2. So we're just better than a 2.3:1 favorite over this range . . . .

But of course, his hand range is much larger than that . . . and includes AA as well (I might play AA slow once hero's RR had narrowed the field and put a lot of money in the pot). On this flop, AA without a club isn't going to waste much time, and AA with a club could also be pushing because it looks like a bluff with AK or a scared play by TT/JJ/QQ.

So somtimes, we'll be drawing to 2, maybe even 1 out ourselves . . .

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

FWIW, without knowing stack sizes for sure, but knowing he still has a monster stack, this is a pretty clear fold to me.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

Folding is very weak tight. If you are not willing to play for your stack, you are not going to win. I haven't seen any argument that calling is anywhere near cEV-.

You reraised preflop, so you are getting 1.6-1 pot odds. So is villain, so if he is good, he is pushing a lot of hands. If villain is a decent player, he pushes AA/KK preflop. Slow playing would make no sense here. You got a low flop. What more can you ask for.

You can say you are either even or way behind. Well you are getting huge pot odds, so being even is not even. Also, villain could have a lower pp probably with a club or AK without a club, so you could be a big favorite.

What hands does villain raise UTG and flat call a 2nd position raise for 22% of his stack. Before the flop action, I would say he has a middle pp or AK.

When you reraise enough so that you are getting 1.6-1 to put the rest of the money in on the flop, you usually should put the rest of the money in on the flop.

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

Just curious, regarding your preflop re-raise. What do you do here if he re-reraises you a stack-committing rereraise?

Re: Live MTT, late QQ tough decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious, regarding your preflop re-raise. What do you do here if he re-reraises you a stack-committing rereraise?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll let OP answer that, but I think he has to call. By that time he is gettign 1.6-1 and villain could have AK or maybe JJ.

Once you reraise, you are pretty much pot committed preflop and postflop, which is why I say you have to call on the flop.

I might flat call preflop, partly for this reason, but once I reraise, I am looking to get the rest of the money in.