Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

Shaniac has been entering a fair number of pots pre-flop, either calling raises, limping behind, or raising from late position, but he hasn't been super aggressive, especially not after the flop. I've been a little LAGgy, but certainly not out of hand. The other Villain likes to call pre-flop. The only other time I raised UTG, it was a smaller raise, other Villain called, I bet a little over half pot on a KQ8 flop, he min-raised, and I folded. Shaniac was at the table when that happened.

We are both top 5 with 30 remaining in a 30 rebuy WSOP satellite paying one spot.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t1600 with t75 antes (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t63234)
UTG+1 (t51506)
MP1 (t12953)
CO (t15225)
Button (t42718)
SB (t11587)
BB (t104829)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t4800</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Button calls t4800, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t3200

Flop: (t15725) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t9000</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to t18000</font>, Hero ???

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

I'm kinda thinking I like a shove here. He's gonna be hard pressed to call as I think he has to give you credit for a big pair. But I also think there's a good chance you guys may be on a 2nd or 3rd lvl here (if he knows who you are and I'm assuming he does) which makes it a little more tricky. Also, is there any possiblity that he meant to click call, but was multitabling and min raised by mistake?

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

cold-call hes min-raise and push on A,K or Q turn

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
cold-call hes min-raise and push on A,K or Q turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding me?

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

With stacks, the bet size kinda makes sense. For whatever reason, he wants there to be three bets before we get it all in.

I have no idea if he's baiting you to push or if he's trying to make it look like he's committed while saving chips on a bluff, though, so I've got no advice [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

The fact that I had previously raised UTG, c-bet, and folded to a min-raise was the deciding factor for me here, but I think a push might be best anyway. He cold called a raise and a call, so I think he's less likely to have AA/KK, though I'm sure he's capable of it. Maybe he's got 66 or a 5 in his hand, but doesn't seem very likely either. So this could be a bluff or a probe bet with 77-QQ. I imagine I fold out TT with a shove here, even JJ or QQ might have a tough time of it, though I think he calls more often than not. I'd rather not fold out 77/88, but he's probably done with those if I call him anyway. I only have a pot-sized bet left, he could have 6 outs, there are other cards that are scary for me, and shaniac is good, so I just shoved on him and he folded. Maybe calling is better if I'm willing to call/push any turn. Thoughts on that?

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

I like pushing. The pot is as big as your stack, thus is worth winning. You MIGHT fold out a better hand. If you just call and he is drawing to 6 outs I cannot imagine you will get any more from him if he misses and will only get action if he hits one of his outs. In this case don't give him free cards and push. Of course, I would likely get trapped by a big pair in this scenario.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

I don't push here.

I call this and raise his turn bet all in.

Pushing here gets him lay down worse hands.

He has to act first on turn.

If we think we are ahead, pushing really, really sucks here, especially since Shane saw us lay down to a min raise earlier.

He can do this with air, smaller pairs, straight draws etc.

He can do this with a 5 or 66 too, but you are WAY ahead of his range. (He *may* just call TT/JJ PF, but I still don't lay down here, vs. him with our weak image)

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
You MIGHT fold out a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

We hardly beat any hands here. Do you think he raises with 22-44? We beat 77 and 88, and lose to 10-10 through AA,66,55,A5s,65s,etc.

I dont hate a flop fold as the turn card is probably going to be more of a disaster and I doubt hes checking it.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]

We hardly beat any hands here. Do you think he raises with 22-44? We beat 77 and 88, and lose to 10-10 through AA,66,55,A5s,65s,etc.

I dont hate a flop fold as the turn card is probably going to be more of a disaster and I doubt hes checking it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Shane saw us fold to a min c/r before do you think he's going to do it with a hand that buries us? I think he's more likely to c/c or lead.

I think Shane can easily do this with 2 overs.

I could be wrong, I often am.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

I agree that this is between calling and folding. Dunno which is correct though.

Lol.. i've been so helpful in this thread.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

fact: he is pushing the turn (unless it is really terrible for his hand, like an ace or five hits and he has 76 or something)

fact: you are more often behind than ahead

fact: shoving now makes him fold jacks sometimes

if you thought &gt; 5 seconds, fold, otherwise shove

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]

fact: he is pushing the turn (unless it is really terrible for his hand, like an ace or five hits and he has 76 or something)

fact: you are more often behind than ahead

fact: shoving now makes him fold jacks sometimes

if you thought &gt; 5 seconds, fold, otherwise shove

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree that you are behind here more than ahead, and that he folds many hands you are behind often enough to make a push profitable, maybe TT.....

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

look at the stacks again...this is one of two, maybe 3 things.

1)small/medium pair or 6 looking for info, right on the edge of being able to fold to a 3 bet (this is a fairly decent, but not huge part of his range, also, JJ is the same hand as 22 here if he plays it this way)
2)total bluff which may have an over or two (also small, may be less than I think because you are c-betting into 2 people/showing strength)
3)something that wants a call

if you think you don't have FE over JJ here (you do, though) you can fold right now and save half a stack.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
1)small/medium pair or 6 looking for info, right on the edge of being able to fold to a 3 bet (this is a fairly decent, but not huge part of his range, also, JJ is the same hand as 22 here if he plays it this way)
2)total bluff which may have an over or two (also small, may be less than I think because you are c-betting into 2 people/showing strength)
3)something that wants a call

if you think you don't have FE over JJ here (you do, though) you can fold right now and save half a stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that if we think we are behind, just fold. Trying to fold a better hand in a big pot online is usually bad, even against a good thinking player, but I will concede some FE here.

#1 &amp;#2 suggest calling the flop raise and getting in on turn. Since he is first to act on the turn and is now in control of the hand, raising here with best hand is no good.

It could be #3, but I think you are ahead of the range and really need him to bet again to maximize the hand.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

First inpression: I think you are ahead, but I am not sure you are folding better hands.

this is a pretty good flop for you. The push folds worst hands like 76s that you won't mind in. It also folds overs wich in my opinion is not that bad.

The problem is that he is likely to call with hands that beat you and nothing else.

Your push is not representing AA or KK. The flop is very good for those hands, they are way ahead of everything except trips or a FH. So if you push, they loose a lot of value.

ooops, now I look at the size of your stack compare to the pot. You have to raise and commit yourself, so you may have to go broke here. And yes, Js and Ts will have a hard time to call this(QQ+ is now back in your range). IMO TT-JJ are unlikely as i guess he would have raised more with those to safely fold to a 3-bet all in.

From the result it looks like he took a stab. This is a great spot for him to do so as he commits 18000 to win 26000 on a flop you likely missed and then forces you to fold or push so you will be the one risking your stack not him.

Your half pot sized bet followed by the 3-bet all in worked very well in that hand and extract the most value without going to the turn.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]

if you thought &gt; 5 seconds, fold, otherwise shove

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that because it shows strenght? Or are you just saying if you overthink it you'll find a fold?

Here I think regardeless of your holding, the nuts or a marginal hand, you need some time to decide your line. Rushing your chips in the middle in that hand vs that player is not an indication of more strenght or weakness. And this is not giving you the opportunity to take the most appropriate line.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here I think regardeless of your holding, the nuts or a marginal hand, you need some time to decide your line. Rushing your chips in the middle in that hand vs that player is not an indication of more strenght or weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really, really wrong. I guess I should qualify that with a 'maybe not vs. that particular player' in case it's not true vs. exactly Shaniac. it probably is, though, as it is definitely wrong vs. 99.999% of all poker players including almost everybody in that skill range.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here I think regardeless of your holding, the nuts or a marginal hand, you need some time to decide your line. Rushing your chips in the middle in that hand vs that player is not an indication of more strenght or weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really, really wrong. I guess I should qualify that with a 'maybe not vs. that particular player' in case it's not true vs. exactly Shaniac. it probably is, though, as it is definitely wrong vs. 99.999% of all poker players including almost everybody in that skill range.

[/ QUOTE ]
Adanthar this is OT but I always wanted to ask you in PITR, who is that in your avatar?

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here I think regardeless of your holding, the nuts or a marginal hand, you need some time to decide your line. Rushing your chips in the middle in that hand vs that player is not an indication of more strenght or weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is really, really wrong. I guess I should qualify that with a 'maybe not vs. that particular player' in case it's not true vs. exactly Shaniac. it probably is, though, as it is definitely wrong vs. 99.999% of all poker players including almost everybody in that skill range.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure I understood. Can you elaborate? Do you mean if you shove quickly you look more like AK than AA? or the other way around?

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

No kidding! I always thought Adanthar's avatar was W.B. Mason, the paper guy.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

I really have to pay closer attention to the thread.

I had no idea that you posted results before I answered.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really have to pay closer attention to the thread.

I had no idea that you posted results before I answered.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

You can do penance by answering me this:

You suggested it would be better to call than to shove because we needed him to bet the turn. On the turn, my stack will be the size of the pot. Assuming a blank turns (ignoring possible disagreement over what constitutes a blank), with which worse hands do you think he bets the turn? KQ? AJ? 88? 76? Should I call an all in on any turn card?

I ask because the question of whether he would bet a worse hand on the turn was central to my decision about whether to push. Folding out TT is maybe a marginal benefit of shoving, but if he almost always shoves the turn, then I would agree that calling is better. I just didn't feel like he would expect to be ahead with 88 or to have fold equity with overs if I called the flop. Care to expound on why you think he would?

Much appreciated,
Foucault

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]

You can do penance by answering me this:

You suggested it would be better to call than to shove because we needed him to bet the turn. On the turn, my stack will be the size of the pot. Assuming a blank turns (ignoring possible disagreement over what constitutes a blank), with which worse hands do you think he bets the turn? KQ? AJ? 88? 76? Should I call an all in on any turn card?

I ask because the question of whether he would bet a worse hand on the turn was central to my decision about whether to push. Folding out TT is maybe a marginal benefit of shoving, but if he almost always shoves the turn, then I would agree that calling is better. I just didn't feel like he would expect to be ahead with 88 or to have fold equity with overs if I called the flop. Care to expound on why you think he would?

Much appreciated,
Foucault

[/ QUOTE ]

If we proceed on the assumption we are ahead, then we can usually assume he is drawing to 2-6 outs on this board so the turn card doesn't matter.

If we are ahead, then calling gives Shane to try to make one last stab at the pot, and given the size of the pot it may be by putting you all in.

He may just check/fold if he thinks he's behind, but he may also think he has some FE left in his stack, and given my limited experience playing with Shane I can see him easily putting you all in with nothing on the turn to try to win the pot.

He may accurately put you on someting close to what you actually have, and *know* you may have trouble calling off your tourney with it.

I'm not saying he *always* bets the turn, but given the size of the pot, if its the only way he can win it, he probably does this &gt;25% of the time, especially given that he will still have 25BB's if you call and he loses, its not the end of the world.

It does all depend on his opinion of you and of your hand. If I'm in Shane's spot and you accidentally show me your cards I go all in on most turns as its really, really tough for you to call (this is different than me saying big laydowns are rare online, because I don't think folding 99 to a min/ cr turn shove is a big laydown against the BB in a low paired board)

It does look like the c/mr may be Shane's "one shot" at the pot and if he doesn't improve he gives up, but I cannot discount him trying for the pot on the turn.

If you really think you are ahead, I think you at least need to give him to rope to hang himself with, even though he may not use it.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

shaniac never has anything

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

This is actually a great play by Shaniac. The bet is a small gamble by him, but can look really scary to you. If you call it, half your stack is in which does not give you odds to call an all-in bet on the turn unless you hit. This is the range I think he is likely on:

1) A low-medium pair (22-44,77-TT) --- he is making this bet to find out if you really have him beat. He does not expect you to fold with overcards, but he does expect you to raise with an overpair, in which case he can fold. If you just call, he will put you on overs and will push any turn card that is unlikely to help you (perhaps any turn card).

2) A whopper --- either he is trying to get you to commit with a medium pair when he holds QQ-AA, or he has hit a full house or quads on the flop.

Given that, it might be best to just call his minraise and call any bet on the turn.

I DOUBT he has overcards to make this play. I also think that with AA or KK, he might do this, but I would think check-call would be more likely.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
shaniac never has anything

[/ QUOTE ]

First line in my post said "if we proceed with the assumption that we are ahead"

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is actually a great play by Shaniac.
2) A whopper --- either he is trying to get you to commit with a medium pair when he holds QQ-AA, or he has hit a full house or quads on the flop.

Given that, it might be best to just call his minraise and call any bet on the turn.

I DOUBT he has overcards to make this play. I also think that with AA or KK, he might do this, but I would think check-call would be more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think overcards are more likely than AA-KK. Those hands raise from the button IMO bc of closing out the BB. Also, Foucalt raising UTG means more than likely he is strong, so Shane would want to get it in now with the best.

Most likely holding is 77-JJ, with AK being second, and a weird 57s, or 67s third. AA-QQ is a distant fourth.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

I think pushing is correct as his most likely hands are
1) 77-JJ (you beat as many as not)
2) overcard bluff (missed AQ?)
3) random 57s 67s hand.
Pushing is good for the reasons you said, and it folds most of 1) if not all.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

I just don't see this kind of play made very often by a decent player with just overcards. You might, but it looks too much like someone trying to see if their hand is good. If they have overcards (unless it is AK, which is, I guess possible) then they would figure they probably aren't good.

Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't see this kind of play made very often by a decent player with just overcards. You might, but it looks too much like someone trying to see if their hand is good. If they have overcards (unless it is AK, which is, I guess possible) then they would figure they probably aren't good.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the fact that he has seen me fold to a min-raise in a very similar spot?