Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

Stars $20 180-person tournament. I've been at the table 2 orbits and I don't think villain had played a hand yet. I've open pushed three times without getting called.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t2152)
UTG (t2375)
UTG+1 (t2750)
MP1 (t12965)
MP2 (t4510)
MP3 (t2555)
CO (t5820)
Button (t2680)
SB (t4210)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>

If his range is 88+/AJo+/KQ I'm 44%. I may have a bit of folding equity of i push, but not likely. I think my options are fold or stop and go. Is 99 too good to fold here?

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

I don't think you have fold equity here and with an M-7 you've got a tough decision. You'd rather be the first in with a big raise of push here but you've got a pretty good hand right now. If you call and fold on the flop, you're in pretty bad shape so I either push all in or fold here with a lean towards going all in. Tough situation and it comes up often for me. I'd be interested in reading the other responses. What did you do and how'd it work out.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you have fold equity here and with an M-7 you've got a tough decision. You'd rather be the first in with a big raise of push here but you've got a pretty good hand right now. If you call and fold on the flop, you're in pretty bad shape so I either push all in or fold here with a lean towards going all in. Tough situation and it comes up often for me. I'd be interested in reading the other responses. What did you do and how'd it work out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I have folding equity. Partly because of his pot odds, partly because of my image. When I first got to the table I pushed two hands in a row, I think he was one of the blinds for one or both of those two times, so he probably noticed.

If I don't have folding equity PF, and I'm not folding, I think calling and pushing any flop is what I should do. Please let me know if I'm incorrect about this (e.g. the flop push would be a bit of an overbet).

If I'm correct about the stop-and-go, the real question is whether or not folding is right. It almost seems it's so close that either would be fine.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

i would never fold, i might just push pf and take my chances

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

this looks like an easy push to me. Then again, this same situation just happened to me literally 10 seconds ago. Button raised to 3BB, I had 7M in BB and 99, and pushed. He instacalled with QQ.

But that's only if you want to be results oriented [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

push

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
this looks like an easy push to me. Then again, this same situation just happened to me literally 10 seconds ago. Button raised to 3BB, I had 7M in BB and 99, and pushed. He instacalled with QQ.

But that's only if you want to be results oriented [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that situation is very different (button raise), and is a clear push.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
i would never fold, i might just push pf and take my chances

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I don't get it.

You are up against a player where your read is super-tight, as far as you know, who raised from around front. You have a hand that's either slightly ahead or way behind. Your pot odds are OK but not great. You are far from desperate yet. You have extremely limited FE. You are presumably better than your opponents so you want an edge.

Why wouldn't you just insta-muck this and find a better spot?

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

I think pushing is the worst option as we have no fold equity whatsoever. A stop n go is ok but with your read I think folding is probably best.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

Ugh.

I think I push because with that stack and those blinds I'm going to need to gamble sooner rather than later and 44% is enough of an equity to gamble. Part of the reason of why I gamble is that wining that "coinflip" gives me a stack that's twice as big as those of other 5 players at the table and will increase my ability to steal from them and will also increase my ability to steal from 3 other players who are in the 4k-6k range. So wi that said - combination of decent equity and strategic advantage if I win makes it a fairly easy push for me.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

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[ QUOTE ]
i would never fold, i might just push pf and take my chances

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I don't get it.

You are up against a player where your read is super-tight, as far as you know, who raised from around front. You have a hand that's either slightly ahead or way behind. Your pot odds are OK but not great. You are far from desperate yet. You have extremely limited FE. You are presumably better than your opponents so you want an edge.

Why wouldn't you just insta-muck this and find a better spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

We haven't seen him play a hand in 2 orbits, but I'm not willing to give him credit for being a complete nit. He's a huge stack relatively early in a 20/180. That usually is not an indicator that someone is super tight. I think you're putting way too much stress on the read.

It's an easy push because we have 10xBB, we have a very slight amount of FE probably, and we don't mind it if Villain flips 2 overs here since we're short and this looks like a decent chance to double up. Villain might even call our push with a few hands we're killing like 55-88 too.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

That range seems awful tight for the table CL. I don't see how this isn't a push.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think pushing is the worst option as we have no fold equity whatsoever. A stop n go is ok but with your read I think folding is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ] pushing = folding; pushing OR folding &gt; stop and go

Stop and go will rarely fold out the higher pairs (TT-AA). It will fold out overpairs that miss the flop, which is not a good outcome for you.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh.

I think I push because with that stack and those blinds I'm going to need to gamble sooner rather than later and 44% is enough of an equity to gamble. Part of the reason of why I gamble is that wining that "coinflip" gives me a stack that's twice as big as those of other 5 players at the table and will increase my ability to steal from them and will also increase my ability to steal from 3 other players who are in the 4k-6k range. So wi that said - combination of decent equity and strategic advantage if I win makes it a fairly easy push for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like most people are in between pushing and folding. If it makes a difference, I think the opponent is unlikely to have a tighter range than the one I made up and it's very possible his range is larger. For the people that say push, why not a stop and go? Am I just another donk misapplying this move (this is what I did)?

Also I think your comment about being able to steal if I double up is interesting. I believe it's quite possible that if I were to go from say, 7.5 BB to 15 BB, my EV in the tournament more than doubles, since I then have the options of re-stealing and stealing without pushing. These two weapons can be half your game at this stage in the tournament.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

I'm pushing this. MP villain may or may not be tight as described. Villain may just not have gotten any "pretty" cards in the last 2 orbits. Shove it in. This is definitely +EV.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

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Stop and go will rarely fold out the higher pairs (TT-AA). It will fold out overpairs that miss the flop, which is not a good outcome for you.

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I don't understand, isn't this comment true for doing a stop-and-go with any pocket pair? It seems like you'd never want to do it then.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

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Stop and go will rarely fold out the higher pairs (TT-AA). It will fold out overpairs that miss the flop, which is not a good outcome for you.

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I don't understand, isn't this comment true for doing a stop-and-go with any pocket pair? It seems like you'd never want to do it then.

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You hold 44. Villain theoretically holds 77 or something. You stop and go. Flop is AKQ. Villain folds. Profit. If you pushed preflop, he'd almost certainly call and either be killing you or flipping you. But you can create the appearance of fold equity on a lot of flops where you really shouldn't be able to.

But with 99, there's a much better chance Villain calls you down preflop with a hand you're killing, and a lot fewer flops where Villain could actually fold incorrectly to the stop and go. If he has a smaller pair, and he folds on the overcard board, he probably wasn't making a mistake anyway. If he has 2 overs, and folds on a low card flop, it might be a mistake depending on the pot odds but it might not be a mistake in that either, depending on whether or not your flop push gives me odds to draw at his 6 outer.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

I'm curious how Villian got that huge stack if he's not loose aggro.
2 orbits isn't enough for me to change my mind.
I think your range for his hands is conservative.
I'd put him on any pair, suited con, Ax, or K9+.

That said, I think he'll call your All-in with most of his range.

That's what you want. You'll double most of time, and plenty of time you'll do it when he calls with his pocket 5s.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

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I'm curious how Villian got that huge stack if he's not loose aggro.


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Why would you every say this?

LAG is the only profitable style of play?

Players don't go on heaters?

This is a very risky assumption to make without any other information than his stack size.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

Isn't poker a game of assumptions and risk?

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious how Villian got that huge stack if he's not loose aggro.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you every say this?

LAG is the only profitable style of play?

Players don't go on heaters?

This is a very risky assumption to make without any other information than his stack size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he doesn't have to be LAG, but I think the prior probability of a person in a $20 180-person mtt with that size stack being a lag is high. Of course, the fact that he hasn't really played for the couple orbits I've been there conflicts with this.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious how Villian got that huge stack if he's not loose aggro.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you every say this?

LAG is the only profitable style of play?

Players don't go on heaters?

This is a very risky assumption to make without any other information than his stack size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without perfect information, we make our best assumptions.

This player has not played for 2 orbits. At least, Hero doesn't think he has. He wasn't even 100% sure about that. But let's assume he's right. That's a factor which says he's tight. But he's got 13k chips by level 4 in a 20/180. Most players who get stacks that big that quickly tend to be loose, otherwise they'd have a hard time accumulating that many chips in the first 45 minutes.

The fact is, we don't have a good read on this guy yet. We have no idea whether he's tight and had a heater, whether he's a loose luckbox that just folded an orbit or two, or whether he's somewhere between.

To me, that's enough information to conclude that OP's original range of 88+/AJ+ is WAY too tight.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

Thank you for putting it in words better than I could.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

To both of you that just responded to my post:

I play a pretty TAG style of play, loosening up as the blinds get higher, but still pretty TAG. I often have a large stack late in a tourny without playing LAG. Harrington didn't have all the success he has had with a LAG style, nor Hellmouth etc...

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't poker a game of assumptions and risk?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say poker is a game of wild assumptions. Which gives you more information? The fact that he has big stack. The fact that he hasn't played a hand in the last 2 orbits at a higher level of blinds.

Poker is not really a game of assumptions, it is a game of incomplete information and to fill in the blanks with wild ass guesses is not good. You should be filling in the blanks based on the information you have, such as: his previous actions, his position, the actions of the players that follow him (maybe he noticed they are all tight), hands he has showndown, his bet sizes etc... Assuming anything based on stack size alone is not good.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

Rockin,

I disagree with you that Villain's behavior over the last 2 orbits is more valuable information than his having a 8x the starting size stack 45 minutes into a 20/180. Obviously, the fact that he has a large stack doesn't tell us he's necessarily loose, but I would argue the majority of players who do acquire a stack this large this early are loose.

The real question here is whether or not we can widen his range out to ANYTHING wider than 88+, AJ+. We don't need much wider than that for this to be an obvious +EV spot. 2 orbits of not playing doesn't tell me that this guy is a rock. And someone on a massive stack probably SHOULD be raising a much wider range than 88+, AJ+ here.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rockin,

I disagree with you that Villain's behavior over the last 2 orbits is more valuable information than his having a 8x the starting size stack 45 minutes into a 20/180.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may want to rethink this. This is not 45 minutes in.

This could be anywhere from 1:15 minutes in to 1:45 minutes in. If this is 1:30 minutes in then their are approx 50 players left, meaning average stack size is around 4500 to 5000. This stack is not all that big.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

Hmm, maybe I'm blanking on my blind levels. What is this, early 2nd hour?

I'd weight the idea that Villain's stack size = loose slightly less in that case, but it's still a factor for me.

Do you actually think this isn't a push, or are you just disagreeing about the read?

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Rockin,

I disagree with you that Villain's behavior over the last 2 orbits is more valuable information than his having a 8x the starting size stack 45 minutes into a 20/180. Obviously, the fact that he has a large stack doesn't tell us he's necessarily loose, but I would argue the majority of players who do acquire a stack this large this early are loose.

The real question here is whether or not we can widen his range out to ANYTHING wider than 88+, AJ+. We don't need much wider than that for this to be an obvious +EV spot. 2 orbits of not playing doesn't tell me that this guy is a rock. And someone on a massive stack probably SHOULD be raising a much wider range than 88+, AJ+ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Like I said before, having a big stack doesn't mean he's a lag, but it's much more likely that he is. As for the range I gave, I merely meant to show that it was a close decision even for the tightest possible range he could have.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

W/ 10 min blinds...

10/20 0-10
15/30 10-20
25/50 20-30
50/100 30-40
75/150 40-50
100/200 50-60
100/200 25 60-70

So they are in the 50-70 min range, say 55 minutes. And, BTW I have played in these and had this big of a stack because I have been catching cards and more importantly, flops. If he's folded the last 2 orbits I would be more inclined to label him as tight for now, until proven otherwise.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
To both of you that just responded to my post:

I play a pretty TAG style of play, loosening up as the blinds get higher, but still pretty TAG. I often have a large stack late in a tourny without playing LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh so at blinds 200 we're late in the tourney?
Please.
Stop the nit picking.

Rockin', if you advocate a fold, come out and say it and say why.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, maybe I'm blanking on my blind levels. What is this, early 2nd hour?

I'd weight the idea that Villain's stack size = loose slightly less in that case, but it's still a factor for me.

Do you actually think this isn't a push, or are you just disagreeing about the read?

[/ QUOTE ]

From my first post:

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing this. MP villain may or may not be tight as described. Villain may just not have gotten any "pretty" cards in the last 2 orbits. Shove it in. This is definitely +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I like the push.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

I think people get too enamored with the "push, stopngo, or fold" mentality. You are playing against a presumably tight player with a solid hand. Suppose his range was as you said (From fairly early position, as he is, I might even think he is tighter, perhaps not including 88, or KQ). You are only dominated by an overpair, which make up somewhat less than half the hands he is raising with. My observations about tight players are:

1) They "expect" that since they have waited so long for a prime hand, that their hand "deserves" to win. How dare someone call their AK with 98s and outdraw them!

2) They are predictable post-flop. Partly because they are so tight preflop, they don't get a lot of practice with ambiguous situations post-flop. So they like to resolve the situation quickly postflop.

So I agree you have little or no fold equity. If nath (or any other LAG player) were the preflop raiser, I would not hesitate to reraise all-in preflop here. You are likely ahead of their range, and they may incorrectly fold hands like TJ or JQ that are coin flips against you. Against a tight player, why not just call preflop, with the following strategy post-flop?

1) if you hit a set on the flop, you are likely to stack your opponent. Check-raise the flop all-in. If checked behind on the flop, make a small probe bet on the turn, leaving enough behind to put yourself all-in on the river with another small bet.

2) If the flop comes A x x, pause for dramatic emphasis, then lead for about 600 and fold to a raise all-in. If they raise here, you are beat. You might get a higher pair to fold.

3) If the flop comes with two overcards to your 9s, check-fold.

4) If the flop comes with K x x or Q x x, most of their hands are going to miss the flop. Go all-in. You might get a JJ or TT to fold.

5) On any other flop, check, and watch. Remember, tight players want to resolve the hand as soon as possible. If they check, you almost certainly have the best hand. If they bet half pot or so, they likely only have overcards. If they bet full pot or more, they have an overpair and want to shut you out so you don't outdraw them. Raise a half-pot bet all-in, fold to a full pot or larger bet.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

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I'm pushing this. MP villain may or may not be tight as described. Villain may just not have gotten any "pretty" cards in the last 2 orbits. Shove it in. This is definitely +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I like the push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, cool. Just wanted to make sure we were just on a tangent there, cause if you didn't think it was a push, I would have been kinda perplexed. But you're just not putting as much credence in the stack size read. Gotcha.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To both of you that just responded to my post:

I play a pretty TAG style of play, loosening up as the blinds get higher, but still pretty TAG. I often have a large stack late in a tourny without playing LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh so at blinds 200 we're late in the tourney?
Please.
Stop the nit picking.

Rockin', if you advocate a fold, come out and say it and say why.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really need to read the entire thread before you throw stones. I've already stated twice now that I would push. My first post stated that clearly.

Nitpicking? LOL. You are criticizing something as small as me saying "late in the tourny" and I'M nitpicking for saying, "don't make assumptions based on stack size". Get real. FWIW, this is LATE in the tourny. Down to 50 players out of 180 is not late?

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
W/ 10 min blinds...

10/20 0-10
15/30 10-20
25/50 20-30
50/100 30-40
75/150 40-50
100/200 50-60
100/200 25 60-70

So they are in the 50-70 min range, say 55 minutes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Na, Rockin is right, I checked the Stars site. 15 mins levels, 100/200 starts at the 1:15 mark. 100/200/25 starts at 1:30. I think this must be somewhere between 1:15 and 1:30 cause it doesn't look like antes are involved.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To both of you that just responded to my post:

I play a pretty TAG style of play, loosening up as the blinds get higher, but still pretty TAG. I often have a large stack late in a tourny without playing LAG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh so at blinds 200 we're late in the tourney?
Please.
Stop the nit picking.

Rockin', if you advocate a fold, come out and say it and say why.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really need to read the entire thread before you throw stones. I've already stated twice not that I would push. My first post stated that clearly.

Nitpicking? LOL. You are criticizing something as small as me saying "late in the tourny" and I'M nitpicking for saying, "don't make assumptions based on stack size". Get real. FWIW, this is LATE in the tourny. Down to 50 players out of 180 is not late?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't late, but it's not early anymore. Antes aren't even in play yet. Mid-stages. That awkward time once blinds get noticeable. We're still an hour away from the ITM bubble here.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

allenciox, just want to make sure you realize he has only 10bb's.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think people get too enamored with the "push, stopngo, or fold" mentality. You are playing against a presumably tight player with a solid hand. Suppose his range was as you said (From fairly early position, as he is, I might even think he is tighter, perhaps not including 88, or KQ). You are only dominated by an overpair, which make up somewhat less than half the hands he is raising with. My observations about tight players are:

1) They "expect" that since they have waited so long for a prime hand, that their hand "deserves" to win. How dare someone call their AK with 98s and outdraw them!

2) They are predictable post-flop. Partly because they are so tight preflop, they don't get a lot of practice with ambiguous situations post-flop. So they like to resolve the situation quickly postflop.

So I agree you have little or no fold equity. If nath (or any other LAG player) were the preflop raiser, I would not hesitate to reraise all-in preflop here. You are likely ahead of their range, and they may incorrectly fold hands like TJ or JQ that are coin flips against you. Against a tight player, why not just call preflop, with the following strategy post-flop?

1) if you hit a set on the flop, you are likely to stack your opponent. Check-raise the flop all-in. If checked behind on the flop, make a small probe bet on the turn, leaving enough behind to put yourself all-in on the river with another small bet.

2) If the flop comes A x x, pause for dramatic emphasis, then lead for about 600 and fold to a raise all-in. If they raise here, you are beat. You might get a higher pair to fold.

3) If the flop comes with two overcards to your 9s, check-fold.

4) If the flop comes with K x x or Q x x, most of their hands are going to miss the flop. Go all-in. You might get a JJ or TT to fold.

5) On any other flop, check, and watch. Remember, tight players want to resolve the hand as soon as possible. If they check, you almost certainly have the best hand. If they bet half pot or so, they likely only have overcards. If they bet full pot or more, they have an overpair and want to shut you out so you don't outdraw them. Raise a half-pot bet all-in, fold to a full pot or larger bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is bad advice. Calling off &gt;1/4 of our stack to fold on the flop is a TERRIBLE line, especially when we hit a set ~10% of the time. And raising anything but AI post flop is worse, especially the bet/fold line. W/ a raise in front PF we are in push or fold territory, where I am leaning towards a push.

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

You might want to run some numbers before you call this terrible. First of all, you are not calling off 1/4 of your stack, you are investing 400 more chips, which is either 400/1952 or 400/2152 depending on whether the stack sizes are before or after blinds are subtracted. My play works better in the latter case but I think I can make a case that it is still superior to a stop and go in the former.

Realize that we are winning far more times than just when we hit our set, including some hands that may be better than us. I personally despise the stop and go, because it totally ignores flop texture. Suppose you decide to do it here. The flop comes A Q T, all one suit, which does not match either of your nines... to go all-in on the flop here is suicide!

Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
 

Its not a "push/fold/SnG" mentality, you simply don't have enough chips to do otherwise.

Regards,
Woodguy