two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

3rd level, 50/100. I just got moved to this table; I've been up and down all day.

Hand 1: I just took the blinds uncontested. Now I have ~1500 and am UTG+1 and see QQ. I make it 275 (standard so far at this table as far as I can tell.) M/LP calls and the button (young kid) calls. They both cover me.
The flop is KT6 (maybe not 6) with two diamonds. I have ~1200 left and the pot is 975. This is a push, right? If it's not, what is it?

Hand 2:

A few hands later. I have 1200 after posting my small blind. Same button from last hand (who has revealed himself to be rather aggressive) opens to 300. Bill Gazes two to his left calls. Cutoff calls. Button calls. I have 87o in small blind and everyone has me covered. Is a push profitable here?

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

Hand 2. No. You are going to get looked-up somewhere.

Hand 1. I think I check and see. Often I will check jam, and I will also jam a lot of turn cards if it checks through. The only benefit to jamming the flop is that it prices out bad flush draws and JQ and I kind of want to invite those hands to take a stab. I think overall a check is better.

Also...do you have the Qd?

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

Hand 1 is a clear check/evaluate. If it goes bet/call before it even gets back to you, easy fold. If the bet comes from EP, then my read is pretty important, but I'm probably folding. If the bet comes from the last person to act, then unless he is a rock, I'm probably CRing all-in.

Hand 2: I don't really like a push here. Anyone who calls will be getting better than 2:1, and this should be an easy call for lots of hands that destroy your range.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

Stupid donkey question: in hand 2, are you hoping that everyone folds or that you get called as a 2-1 dog with a heap of dead money in the pot?

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stupid donkey question: in hand 2, are you hoping that everyone folds or that you get called as a 2-1 dog with a heap of dead money in the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's hoping everyone folds. In fact, he'd happily give some chips to each player in order to guarantee a fold.

That said, if he's called by a hand like AQo, it's not the worst thing in the world.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stupid donkey question: in hand 2, are you hoping that everyone folds or that you get called as a 2-1 dog with a heap of dead money in the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Either one would work i'm guessing...ideally everyone folding is what you want, but obviously someone's going to realize hat you're doing and look you up.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1. I think I check and see. Often I will check jam, and I will also jam a lot of turn cards if it checks through. The only benefit to jamming the flop is that it prices out bad flush draws and JQ and I kind of want to invite those hands to take a stab. I think overall a check is better.

Also...do you have the Qd?

[/ QUOTE ]

Memory is not perfect but I'm about 90% it was Qh Qc.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stupid donkey question: in hand 2, are you hoping that everyone folds or that you get called as a 2-1 dog with a heap of dead money in the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd take either one, frankly. If I get one caller there's still 1000 in dead money in the pot. That's why I asked-- I haven't run the math on how often it has to fold out / how far behind I have to be when I get called for this to be profitable.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

nath,
there is also a real possibility of two callers, depending on how deep everybody else is.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
nath,
there is also a real possibility of two callers, depending on how deep everybody else is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody was deep enough to call with impunity... I think the deepest stack had ~4000, maybe less.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

If you're seeing the dead money in the pot, someone else sure will too...especially with your money in there now as well. This is the perfect play...if it works...but also a pretty regretable way to exit the WSOP.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you're seeing the dead money in the pot, someone else sure will too...especially with your money in there now as well. This is the perfect play...if it works...but also a pretty regretable way to exit the WSOP.

[/ QUOTE ]
Aren't all plays the perfect plays if they work? I don't care about looking stupid.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

True...but in a sense folding is the perfect play...and that will work every time.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
True...but in a sense folding is the perfect play...and that will work every time.

[/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I won the 1999 WSOP by folding for three straight days. It's harder to do that now, however, with the fields as big as they are. But if you just jam with AA and KK, and fold everything else, you'll usually make the final table.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

Noel Furlong?

I looked it up

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[censored] yeah. I know my game is progressing when I read Hand 1 and said to myself that "kid just f'ed up if he open-pushed." Check the flop and fold to a bet/call, shove a check/bet or bet/fold.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
3rd level, 50/100. I just got moved to this table; I've been up and down all day.

Hand 1: I just took the blinds uncontested. Now I have ~1500 and am UTG+1 and see QQ. I make it 275 (standard so far at this table as far as I can tell.) M/LP calls and the button (young kid) calls. They both cover me.
The flop is KT6 (maybe not 6) with two diamonds. I have ~1200 left and the pot is 975. This is a push, right? If it's not, what is it?

Hand 2:

A few hands later. I have 1200 after posting my small blind. Same button from last hand (who has revealed himself to be rather aggressive) opens to 300. Bill Gazes two to his left calls. Cutoff calls. Button calls. I have 87o in small blind and everyone has me covered. Is a push profitable here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand one: Generally I would check/push here but I would just push if I thought there was a significant chance that it's going to be checked round. I assume that's unlikely though.

Hand 2: I imagine a push is profitable here. There's more money in the pot than there is in your stack so you are almost always getting a call but the move makes life very awkward for all of the villains, torn between great odds for calling, and a small charge, and the action behind. You pulled the same stunt, with the same hand, in what appeared to be a less favourable spot, in a tournie win that you posted recently to get your stack off the ground.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

Hand 1: I think you want to give yourself an opportunity to get a read here by checking and observing. You're not going to fold out any better hands by jamming. Yes, you make a "mistake" in the rare event it gets checked through, but that is not nearly as disastrous as jamming and getting called with 2 outs.

Hand 2: I don't like the chance of getting looked up by two or more callers and I don't like the chance of one of them having 99-JJ. Tempting, but I think we can find better spots, but I would be happy to be proven wrong by the math.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

I am kind of surprised there is anybody saying that hand #1 is anything but a check. The reason is that there are no hands you beat that are going to call your flop bet --- and there are no hands that beat you that aren't going to call your flop bet. The ONLY thing that betting in first position buys you is that it stops it from being checked around to get a free card on the turn. However, what is the likelihood that one of these other players is on a flush or a straight draw, that their draw will hit on the turn, and that they won't take a stab on the flop? Pretty small. The only overcard you are worried about on the turn is the Ace.

As others would say, check and evaluate. If MP checks and the aggressive button bets, raise him all-in. If it is checked around, make your stab on the turn (it is unlikely they are going to check a King on this board). Obviously, if both players bet, you can safely fold. On other options, use reads and bet amounts to determine what they might have. Notice how much better this is than just sticking your money in on the flop.

I actually kind of like the raise all-in on hand 2. Yes it is likely somebody will call you with a better hand, but it is unlikely to dominate you. You need to make a move sometime to accumulate chips to keep you in contention, now seems like a perfect time.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

I thought I would run some numbers for hand 2. By going all-in you are wagering 1200 to win 1300 if no players call you, 2300 if you are called by one player, and 3300 if you are called by two players. I assume that really good hands would have reraised instead of calling, but only decent hands would make your call, so I leave out the "best" hands and only include reasonable calling hands for the rest.

One player calling: (34% equity required for breakeven here)

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.4133 % 32.92% 00.49% { 87o }
Hand 2: 66.5867 % 66.10% 00.49% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }


Equity if called in two places by same range (27% or better required in this case to break even):
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 23.7519 % 23.48% 00.28% { 87o }
Hand 2: 38.1201 % 36.23% 01.90% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 38.1280 % 36.23% 01.90% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }

If you assume that there is a 15% or greater chance of everyone folding, then the all-in is almost always profitable. If, on the other hand, you think there is a near-zero chance that everyone will fold and a substantial chance that at least two players will call your all-in, then the raise all-in is EV-.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
True...but in a sense folding is the perfect play...and that will work every time.

[/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I won the 1999 WSOP by folding for three straight days. It's harder to do that now, however, with the fields as big as they are. But if you just jam with AA and KK, and fold everything else, you'll usually make the final table.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think he meant fold every hand, but don't play every hand either. If someone recommended going allin on a hand, would you make a sarcastic replay about going allin every hand.

In this case, the prefect play and the only play is folding. Any other play is ridiculous.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

I think I would just stick it in with hand 1. Those saying opponents will never call with a worse hand are insane, I highly doubt any T would fold here, and if someone does have a draw then shutting them out is a huge coup. If you check and end up folding you are left with 1200 chips which is a horribly awkward stack. But if you just take it down suddenly you have over 20BB which will allow you to exploit a lot more +EV stealing situations later on.

edit: Just looking at the hand combinations if the other players are in anyway solid they will rarely have a K here because given nath's stack size AK is ALWAYS reraising. Maybe KQ came along but 2 Q's are already dead. I'd just feel sick if I checked the flop only to see it check around.

-SmileyEH

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

SmileyEH,

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would just stick it in with hand 1. Those saying opponents will never call with a worse hand are insane, I highly doubt any T would fold here, and if someone does have a draw then shutting them out is a huge coup. If you check and end up folding you are left with 1200 chips which is a horribly awkward stack. But if you just take it down suddenly you have over 20BB which will allow you to exploit a lot more +EV stealing situations later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Surely, if you believe you have the best hand, check/pushing is far superior to open-pushing. Also, you are overestimating what type of hands will be calling an open-push. IMO, a typical player is definitely folding a T here.

[ QUOTE ]
edit: Just looking at the hand combinations if the other players are in anyway solid they will rarely have a K here because given nath's stack size AK is ALWAYS reraising. Maybe KQ came along but 2 Q's are already dead. I'd just feel sick if I checked the flop only to see it check around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you feel sick if the flop checked through? You act like it would be so incredibly difficult to play the turn. I personally would prefer the flop checking through to anything else.

Check/re-evaluate based on the flop action and/or turn card is definitely the best play here.

Also, hand 2 I'd fold.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

hand 2: I dont think a push is profitable here, pushing into that many people, offering 2-1.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

allenciox-
you forgot to note that, while the range of the two callers may not include AA-JJ and AK, the original raisers range can easily have those. Also, i call with many of those hands (if i am the first caller obv.) depending on how the original raiser is playing. Under this line of thought, i think the second caller HAS to raise AK, AA-JJ here, but could also have suited connectors and any pp in thier range.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

On the first hand, what hands involving a K are we afraid he would have? KQ is the only hand that I can imagine cold calling in position there, and you have two of the Qs. KJ maybe, but that'd be an awful call. and then pocket pairs. AK has to reraise that all in with stack-sizes as they are and the MP caller sititng there? I check push and hope that the button raiser didn't have a set.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

1st hand... Blinds are 50/100, Nath has 1500 b4 betting 275 and the other 2 in the hand have him covered. So both players have an M better than 10...

Why do we think no one could have AK here? If M/LP or the button has AK, and they RR they are pot committed for sure with a UTG+1 whose range most likely has them flipping a coin. I don't see why flat calling with AK would be a bad move for them here. If they did, they just hit a very good flop.

I think dismissing AK here is a bad move. Am I missing something here?

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Surely, if you believe you have the best hand, check/pushing is far superior to open-pushing. Also, you are overestimating what type of hands will be calling an open-push. IMO, a typical player is definitely folding a T here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check-pushing assumes someone is likely to bet. You say a typical player will fold a T, but will also bet it. I think that is completely contradictory. I can't imagine a situation where I would fold this hand on the flop, and extracting value isn't really a concern - hand protection is.

-SmileyEH

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Surely, if you believe you have the best hand, check/pushing is far superior to open-pushing. Also, you are overestimating what type of hands will be calling an open-push. IMO, a typical player is definitely folding a T here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check-pushing assumes someone is likely to bet. You say a typical player will fold a T, but will also bet it. I think that is completely contradictory. I can't imagine a situation where I would fold this hand on the flop, and extracting value isn't really a concern - hand protection is.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say that someone betting a T contradicts the fact that the same person would fold a T if bet into? It makes perfect sense.

Also, if you're open-pushing here, you only get called against a super-draw at best. There is not a single hand that is better than you that will fold and no hands that are worse than yours that will call. Induce a bluff if you're that tied to the hand.

I'm not saying that you should just blindly check/push. I'm saying its way preferable to open-pushing. I'm all for checking/evaluating.

edit: Also, you're so sure you're ahead, but you say hand-protection is essential. What exactly are you afraid of on the turn?

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check-pushing assumes someone is likely to bet. You say a typical player will fold a T, but will also bet it. I think that is completely contradictory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you just defined the Gap Concept.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

OK quick results, I folded hand 2, but I was debating it still. I was pretty sure I never get a fold, which is really why I did it. If I had around 2000 I would make the move.

Hand 1 I actually did check. MP checked and button took only a few seconds before betting 600. NOW I push, right?

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK quick results, I folded hand 2, but I was debating it still. I was pretty sure I never get a fold, which is really why I did it. If I had around 2000 I would make the move.

Hand 1 I actually did check. MP checked and button took only a few seconds before betting 600. NOW I push, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No other choice, IMO. This is precisely what you wanted to happen. You must push here.

edit: And this

[ QUOTE ]
I folded hand 2, but I was debating it still. I was pretty sure I never get a fold, which is really why I did it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems to contradict your earlier statement:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stupid donkey question: in hand 2, are you hoping that everyone folds or that you get called as a 2-1 dog with a heap of dead money in the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd take either one, frankly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

I like your reasoning processes on both hands. I would definitely push all-in after the button bets 600, unless I had a definite read of strength.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK quick results, I folded hand 2, but I was debating it still. I was pretty sure I never get a fold, which is really why I did it. If I had around 2000 I would make the move.

Hand 1 I actually did check. MP checked and button took only a few seconds before betting 600. NOW I push, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh, you have to checkraise allin. As peopel have been saying players don't call raises with a king that much. A flat call with AK or KQs-KTs is possible. Real donks call with kings. I think you have to take that chance. At worst, you probably have 2 outs.

I would just open push the flop. It looks like an ace or pp that missed cbetting/semibluffing. So xT, JJ, and 99 are likely to call.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

while I would take either result in hand 2 I still think folding equity is a significant part of what would make the play +EV and I have none.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
while I would take either result in hand 2 I still think folding equity is a significant part of what would make the play +EV and I have none.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have 87o, the pot has been raised and you have no FE, so why are you considering pushing?

People are going nuts with this squeeze play business.

Also, you don't generally want to squeeze with typical restealing hands like 87o. If you get called, you generally get called bu JJ+, AQ+. You are best off trying this with Axs, since you are about 2-1 against any ace or pp except AA.

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
while I would take either result in hand 2 I still think folding equity is a significant part of what would make the play +EV and I have none.

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I think you have a tiny bit, but 87o doesn't seem good enough to me. 87s and ARREEEN BABY.

-SmileyEH

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you're open-pushing here, you only get called against a super-draw at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is CRAZEEEEEE. Anyway, the whole hand analysis breaks down if we don't agree on that point. I think tons of worse hands will call. Remember this is CRAZY NATH playing too. Maybe if it was Nit McFolderson raising UTG the calling range is different but really, this is 15BB going into the pot - noway is 2nd or even 3rd pair folding.

-SmileyEH

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]

edit: Also, you're so sure you're ahead, but you say hand-protection is essential. What exactly are you afraid of on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't like to see an A T 9 or diamond. If the board is K54r, then checking is definitely better.

-SmileyEH

Re: two hands from today\'s $1500 NLH at WSOP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you're open-pushing here, you only get called against a super-draw at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is CRAZEEEEEE. Anyway, the whole hand analysis breaks down if we don't agree on that point. I think tons of worse hands will call. Remember this is CRAZY NATH playing too. Maybe if it was Nit McFolderson raising UTG the calling range is different but really, this is 15BB going into the pot - noway is 2nd or even 3rd pair folding.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

If nath open-pushed here and I'm sitting there w/ JT, I fold without a second thought. I guess I'm just weak-tight then.