A bluff 400NL
 

Villain is 26/7/2, early orbit, no further reads, seems a bit passive. This is fine right? I imagine how it can be good even without the 3 really, but this should be the perfect card right?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($170.75)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($440)</font>
CO ($443.72)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($453.70)</font>
SB ($558)
BB ($1277.08)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $14, SB (poster) calls $12, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($46) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $37</font>, Button calls $37, SB folds.

Turn: ($120) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $95</font>, Button calls $95.

River: ($310) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets $294.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

I love it. Problem is, no one at 2/4 folds here ever.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

I'm not too sure you have to bet so much on the river, a smaller bet would fold all the missed flush draws and probably bluff just as many pairs as a pot-sized bet does.

White text that you shouldn't read if you're trying to analyze this: <font color="white"> Considering that the top of the HH has red, bold players as going to the showdown, I guess we know he gets called. Or is that just a wierd HH thing? </font>

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

sure, he'll fold 45, 67, 88 and the A-high flush draw. But I don't think that he has these hands close to 50% of the time. 120 and 200 both seem like better sizes imo.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

I'd put out a bet that looks like it wants a call a little more here. $150 should be sufficient to get him to fold anything he'll fold, and if he raises, you can safely fold.

Pushing here only gets folds from the same hands $150 gets folds from, and gets called when you're beaten. Your goal is to get in the first bet and take the pot down when you can, and ~$150 will do that. Your goal isn't to bet more than you need to and get stacked when he'd have raised if you'd bet $150 and saved you the rest of your stack.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

You guys are all approaching this in the wrong way. He's prone to have a weak hand; that's why we are making the bluff in the first place; most players of this kind just don't cold call sets/two pairs/straight on two streets here. Of course I wouldn't do this against a 60/40-type of guy, a real maniac prone to be doing anything and calling anything.

Would you just bet 150 here w/ AA or KK? I don't think so. Yes, if we bet 150 here we can safely fold cuz we got NOTHING. If you bet 150 here w/ AA, are you folding to the raise for 140 more? I don't think you are given his line.

You just cannot reason in a vacuum here; you have to think of what you would do when you have the got damn hand you are trying to represent. If people are going to make heroic calls here (given his line I think we can safely assume that nearly all of the time, anything he is calling w/ is just beating a bluff), how do you punish them the most? By going allin w/ your good hands obviously to charge the the most. If you then want to use the same opportunities to bluff (which you SHOULD do simply because of something called GAME THEORY), then you obviously have to bet the same amount.

Isura, then what DO you think he have? If you don't think he has stuff like that even close to 50% of the hands, then kindly provide a hand range for him.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

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You just cannot reason in a vacuum here; you have to think of what you would do when you have the got damn hand you are trying to represent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be dense, but I do not follow your reasoning here, my friend.

Unless you've played a lot with this villian, or anticipate playing with this villian a lot in the future (like thousands of hands worth of play), I don't think your reasoning, such as I understand it, follows.

Why do the third/fourth level metagame stuff against a tight passsive when you can make a "perfect" play right now, in this pot? You can always adjust your future play based on the results of this play.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put out a bet that looks like it wants a call a little more here. $150 should be sufficient to get him to fold anything he'll fold, and if he raises, you can safely fold.

Pushing here only gets folds from the same hands $150 gets folds from, and gets called when you're beaten. Your goal is to get in the first bet and take the pot down when you can, and ~$150 will do that. Your goal isn't to bet more than you need to and get stacked when he'd have raised if you'd bet $150 and saved you the rest of your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hes got king high.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I'd put out a bet that looks like it wants a call a little more here. $150 should be sufficient to get him to fold anything he'll fold, and if he raises, you can safely fold.

Pushing here only gets folds from the same hands $150 gets folds from, and gets called when you're beaten. Your goal is to get in the first bet and take the pot down when you can, and ~$150 will do that. Your goal isn't to bet more than you need to and get stacked when he'd have raised if you'd bet $150 and saved you the rest of your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hes got king high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate posts like this.

What is your point, exactly?

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Okay, I'm gonna illustrate it for you. You go ahead and find new tables and players everyday and you will not EVER have to, for example c/r or lead w /a draw/bluff and still get paid off w/ a set every single time they have a pair, following your logic. If YOU like betting 150 w/ AA/KK here, then by all means bluff like that as well. I do not, thus I would also bluff allin obviously. You seem to not really grasp how there isn't a "perfect play right now, in this spot" regardless of all others.

Betting 150 here isn't perfect in anyway, and you are mistaken that people not even realizing stuff like the things I said will NOT call an allin as often as 150, simply because the way they see it it's just CHEAPER to call the first bet, and doesn't care about anything else.

You can oversimplify every situation in poker like you did, and you'll soon find out it just doesn't work that way.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm gonna illustrate it for you. You go ahead and find new tables and players everyday and you will not EVER have to, for example c/r or lead w /a draw/bluff and still get paid off w/ a set every single time they have a pair, following your logic. If YOU like betting 150 w/ AA/KK here, then by all means bluff like that as well. I do not, thus I would also bluff allin obviously. You seem to not really grasp how there isn't a "perfect play right now, in this spot" regardless of all others.

Betting 150 here isn't perfect in anyway, and you are mistaken that people not even realizing stuff like the things I said will NOT call an allin as often as 150, simply because the way they see it it's just CHEAPER to call the first bet, and doesn't care about anything else.

You can oversimplify every situation in poker like you did, and you'll soon find out it just doesn't work that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have forgotten who the villian is in this hand. He is tight-passive. He;s not an idiot caller who only thinks about how much he has to call when deciding whether he is going to put his money in. You greatly oversimplify matters yourself with the base assertion that that villians will call $150 more often than $300 simply because it's cheaper. While that may be true in some sense, it's a distinction that makes little difference in this hand, against this player. His folding range is very likely the same for ~$150 as it is for a push.

I do appreciate the condescending post though. It reminds me why I like busting people who bluff $300 on the river in this spot when $150 would have gotten a fold from me if I was going to fold.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Okay, that means you are NEVER calling river for 150 with anything that doesn't beat aces. Good to know!

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, that means you are NEVER calling river for 150 with anything that doesn't beat aces. Good to know!

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, ok.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

If he calls this its because he thinks his hand can beat an overpair. you have done a good job of repping QQ here or JJ. You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

You do realize why I said that, yes?

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Fgators: To whom are you responding, and to what?

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls this its because he thinks his hand can beat an overpair. you have done a good job of repping QQ here or JJ. You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, so if he's decided he can beat the repped overpair, he's very likely calling $150 or a push. The difference is, when you're wrong with $150, it saves you the rest of your stack.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Jesus, you guys are out of line. You think he's calling because he BEATS AA now? LOL.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, you guys are out of line. You think he's calling because he BEATS AA now? LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make very little sense and add nothing to the thread with comments like this. Your posts have been confusing, backed up with little or no reasoning, full of broad and simplistic generalizations, and totally unhelpful. If you're going to take the time to reply, try to post something worthwhile.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Yup, thats me. I just found it rather funny reading this:

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, so if he's decided he can beat the repped overpair, he's very likely calling $150 or a push

[/ QUOTE ]

That really makes me laugh.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

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Yup, thats me. I just found it rather funny reading this:

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Yes, so if he's decided he can beat the repped overpair, he's very likely calling $150 or a push

[/ QUOTE ]

That really makes me laugh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, laugh all the way to the rail for all I care. If your thinking at the table is as clear as your posting in this thread, it won't be long.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls this its because he thinks his hand can beat an overpair. you have done a good job of repping QQ here or JJ. You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... two pair is behinf an overpair and a set filled up. this makes no sense.

I think mdma is the only one who realized the river paired the board

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, reread the board. That's why this is the perfect river card for this.

This is a good spot for this play and AI is the way to go of course, not $150 or whatever.

FeltBelt, you're reasoning in this thread is awful and while it's great to debate different lines, being stubborn and condescending to one of the better posters on these forums isn't the way to do it.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You havent done a good job of repping a straight so two pair and a set are still calling.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, reread the board. That's why this is the perfect river card for this.

This is a good spot for this play and AI is the way to go of course, not $150 or whatever.

FeltBelt, you're reasoning in this thread is awful and while it's great to debate different lines, being stubborn and condescending to one of the better posters on these forums isn't the way to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me exactly which hands THIS PLAYER, not some theoretical player, will call $150 with but would fold for $300. That will tell you how much value the extra $150 or so of the all in has. If the answer is "well *maybe* one or two hands he'd call $150 for but fold to an all in", then you do the math to figure out the EV of the all in vs the 1/2 PSB.

Tight passives like to fold and when they call big-ish river bets (in both pot terms and absolute dollar terms) they usually have the bettor crushed. Hero can give this player a good opportunity to fold without risking his entire stack. So against this player, it's the play to make. But hey, double the risk when half would do if you really want. It's your money.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

You are simply not getting this.

You just simply want him to FOLD in this very hand, and do not care how this decision effects your overall strategy, or how well it goes along with it. You do not care about getting paid when you have a good hand. You do not care about making the same play with a bluff as with the hand you are representing. You do not care about making heroic calls as costly as possible and therefore as difficult as possible.

You are not being realistic, I realized that as soon as I read "Yes, so if he's decided he can beat the repped overpair, he's very likely calling $150 or a push". You are seriously even CONSIDERING him to be considering whether he would call if he could beat AA. That is just ridiculous.

I'll tell you when your "150 vs 300-bet-theorem" is correct. It is in the very unlikely scenario that he's as likely to call 150 as 300, and that everything he calls with is BEATING AA. In other words, if the fact that you having AA is MEANINGLESS, e.g you're AA is as GOOD as a bluff and that you are not ever getting VALUE out of your AA, then you are correct in betting 150 instead of 300. Do you see how [censored] RIDICULOUS that idea is?

You simply care about getting this guy folding in this hand like this is the first and last poker hand in your entire life, without taking consideration to ANYTHING else.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Does anyone else not really like the turn bet? Tight-passive-man just called a 2/3 pot flop bet not closing the action...things are going to get real ugly, real fast for us on the turn all the times he doesn't have another flush draw, no?

Surf

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Guy leaves for dinner in 5, and you don't share another table with him for a month. He doesn't remember that your AA and your bluffs look the same. You don't remember you made this play against him. You're out an extra $150 you could have saved by bluffing half the pot and getting him to fold the same range he would have folded anyways.

Ridiculous.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Guy leaves for dinner in 5, and you don't share another table with him for a month. He doesn't remember that your AA and your bluffs look the same. You don't remember you made this play against him. You're out an extra $150 you could have saved by bluffing half the pot and getting him to fold the same range he would have folded anyways.

Ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't what it's really about. Obviously if he can beat AA, he's calling anything, so that doesn't matter. But, there's a very good chance he's folding smaller overpairs like TT- or even JJ that he'd insta-call for 150 since he's getting a much better price.

On the other hand, I think I perfer a turn check-raise/free card to betting. You lose the pot if you miss everything on the river, of course, but now it's a much smaller pot you don't feel obligated to get stacked for to win. But, as played, potting the river is a lot better than half-potting because he will fold hands that beat A-high here that he'd never fold for a half-pot bet getting 3:1.

Kirk

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

I guess I'm just not sure he folds JJ for 300 but not for 150.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

i would take MDMA's advice over almost anybodys .


FWIW, MDMA's is spot on. your only worry in this hand is to get him to fold. nothing else matters right now.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

I seldom get annoyed on these forums (I mean, they are after all, just internet forums and I expect a lot of [censored] coming from them), but you are SERIOUSLY the most ignorant bitch I've ever seen here. You haven't got the slightest idea of the mechanics behind the game, and your post with that ridiculous dinner-thing shows this.

A clown with no poker knowledge whatsoever comes in here and tries to hand me my ass on a plate without realizing how [censored] stupid he looks with his piece-of-[censored] posts.

Jesus, you really pissed me off, congratulations.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Actually, that part about getting him to fold right now and not worrying about anything else/balancing/credibility etc was me explaining how MoronBelt reasoned; I'm of the opposite view.

Either way, thanks for the kind words.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Sorry but this hand is terrible. Bet 150 or c/f. He's not folding anything you want him to fold for 300 that he wouldnt fold for 150. He won't fold enough for 300 to be +EV. Maaaybe he'll have a draw here enough to make 150 +EV though.

Edit: Now that I've read the thread, I agree with MDMA in theory. But after seeing enough people call a push on the river here with ace high, let alone a pair, I just don't think these moves are good OOP. He can easily be smooth calling a strong hand (or a weak hand) and just decide to call the rest off on the river. The players are just too bad to make these moves.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else not really like the turn bet? Tight-passive-man just called a 2/3 pot flop bet not closing the action...things are going to get real ugly, real fast for us on the turn all the times he doesn't have another flush draw, no?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Its either a check-fold or bet, I dont like a check-call.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else not really like the turn bet? Tight-passive-man just called a 2/3 pot flop bet not closing the action...things are going to get real ugly, real fast for us on the turn all the times he doesn't have another flush draw, no?

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Its either a check-fold or bet, I dont like a check-call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obv, it just seems that betting this particular turn against this opponent doesn't have much going for it..

Surf

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
I seldom get annoyed on these forums (I mean, they are after all, just internet forums and I expect a lot of [censored] coming from them), but you are SERIOUSLY the most ignorant bitch I've ever seen here. You haven't got the slightest idea of the mechanics behind the game, and your post with that ridiculous dinner-thing shows this.

A clown with no poker knowledge whatsoever comes in here and tries to hand me my ass on a plate without realizing how [censored] stupid he looks with his piece-of-[censored] posts.

Jesus, you really pissed me off, congratulations.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to relax, get some friends (if you can), and realize that people who disagree with you can still have some knowledge of the game.

You ignored the villian in this hand and your advice is based on playing against a "typical"-type player. Your responses haven't explained much, and you still haven't answered what this player would do in this spot that justifies the all in instead of the $150. That's just poor poker and poor advice.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

mdma,

Thanks for the posts, and your ideas is something that I'm working hard to incorporate into my game. My OP was pretty short-sighted, but I was just speaking from my experience at 1/2-2/4 where people just don't fold, and most hands seem to be more profitably when played in a vaccuum. I'm not saying that your ideas don't apply to these games, just that I have no experience trying to apply them correctly. FWIW my reasoning was that $120 gets a lot of pair+draw/A-high flush hands to fold and $300 gets called almost as often as $200 does against an unknown.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

Felt,

You really need to cool it man. MDMA is a top notch poster, and he's one of the few top players that take the time to give deep analysis and help new players out.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Felt,

You really need to cool it man. MDMA is a top notch poster, and he's one of the few top players that take the time to give deep analysis and help new players out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm the one that needs to cool it. Lol.

Re: A bluff 400NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Felt,

You really need to cool it man. MDMA is a top notch poster, and he's one of the few top players that take the time to give deep analysis and help new players out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm the one that needs to cool it. Lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

You lost it here:

[ QUOTE ]
I do appreciate the condescending post though. It reminds me why I like busting people who bluff $300 on the river in this spot when $150 would have gotten a fold from me if I was going to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker tough guy ahead folks!