25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

25/50NL, 10-handed.

I raise UTG+1 with Th8h, and only the button calls. I have 6k and he has me covered. So far I have seen one hand where he called in position the whole way on a low board where his opponent kept betting into him with AA (last bet was all-in call). He had a set there.

The flop is TT7 rainbow. I bet 200 in a 375 pot. He calls.

Turn is 5 (no fd), I bet 600 he calls.

River is the 9. I bet 1300, he goes all-in and I have about 3800 left.

Comments on the whole hand, especially river play?

Thanks

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

Pretty standard fold against almost all players

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

Should I have bet the river, and if so, how much?

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Should I have bet the river, and if so, how much?

[/ QUOTE ]You did bet the river, which is why I think it's a fold. This is hardly ever a bluff.

I like check/calling better. It allows us to see a showdown and gives villain a chance to bluff. I don't think villain will call a reasonable bet on the river without at T or better, though that's hardly worth much since we don't have reads.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

Only a certain type of player will have the 'audacity' to bluff raise that river 'knowing' that you don't have a T.

His raise on the river clearly shows he's not afraid of the T. In fact, he's probably hoping you have a T here. You're beat by way too many hands here. I check call a reasonable bet here because you do have showdown value and your opponent isn't calling a bet with a [censored] hand like a pair of sixes.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

Ikke,

Betting is far, far superior to checking on the river.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

Hey Diablo,

Like many of us former limit junkies, I'm trying to make the switch to NL, so if you could expand a bit on your thoughts on this hand it would be nice.

On the river I chose to bet 1300, mainly because of two reasons: It would leave him with about one pot-size raise, so if he decides to bluf it will be for about his stack (his stack was only slightly more than mine) and I thought an 80-90% potbet would also refrain him from bluffing/raising me with weaker hands.

OTOH, I think if I would have bet less, say half the pot (about 800), I could get paid off with more hands. But, he also might be more inclined to bluf, or to raise hands that he thinks are the best, but are not. So far in the hand, since I've been playing relatively tight, I think I mainly represented an overpair. He might think he could push me off that, and a smallish river bet will likely confirm his read IMO.

So what do you think? How much should I have bet the river and why? Should I have been more creative somewhere else in the hand (like for instance c/r turn)? In this case: fold river (is this an easy decision)?

Thanks in advance for answering.

Also, I will be in Vegas from july 18th. Any chance you will be there?

Regards

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

me? i call.

only hand im worried about is 99

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

if you vet more on the river, this is an easy fold. as played, it is still an easy fold (especially given your read that he slowplays big hands when y ou keep betting) but i still prefer a closer to pot sized river bet. you basically have nut low trips, so you don't beat much of anything except a bluff. ask yourself, how often is this line taken with a bluff? if we come up with the same answer, then you'll agree it is an easy muck.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

Yup, only hand you beat is T6 or a bluff and he isnt calling a raise with T6 and that would be a suicide bluff so fold.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

why would that be a suicide bluff? seems like a reasonable bluff to me...

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

Agreed, if the majority is folding trips here its certainly a decent spot to bluff.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, if the majority is folding trips here its certainly a decent spot to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

in theory.

in practice, most people who want to bluff this kind of board generally do it on the flop or the turn, when it's cheaper.

the exceptions make very tough opponents.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, if the majority is folding trips here its certainly a decent spot to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

In every thread like this one, someone says "well if everyone thinks vilain would never bluff in this spot, it's got to be a great spot to bluff".

That's true except,
1) it would take huge cojones to do so
2) no one likes to fold, and you'd get called pretty often imho.

Fold the river.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, if the majority is folding trips here its certainly a decent spot to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

in theory.

in practice, most people who want to bluff this kind of board generally do it on the flop or the turn, when it's cheaper.


[/ QUOTE ]
Not if they have a missed draw.

Re: 25-50 NL Trips river decision
 

The first question would be how much did you raise preflop. If you raised 3x the big blind ( standard), then it would be tough to put him on calling your raise with a ten in his hand, other than possible A-10s. With that in mind, there arent really many hands you can put him on that would beat your hand. However, say he is in good position with a hand like KK or AA, with your preflop raise, he could put you on a hand a like JJ, QQ or KK. When the 10s pair the board, he is almost certain he is way ahead with his overpair. I would almost undoubtedly call his all in, with the cards that are on the board and your preflop raise, I couldnt put him on a hand that beats you right there, with the exception of 99, and even that would be shaky to call a preflop raise, a postflop raise, and a pot bet on the turn. IN this case ,I Would put my money on him flipping over AA or KK.