pair + FD oop
 

Villain seems tight/rockish. I think he is only betting this flop with 99-AA, AJ, maybe AK but I doubt it. So with no FE, pushing seems marginal. Pokerstove says that I'm only like 47% against AA-QQ,AJ. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($170.65)
UTG ($659.12)
MP ($204.75)
Button ($223.75)
Hero ($212.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $8</font>, MP calls $8, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero (poster) calls $7, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($26) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $25</font>, MP folds, Hero bets $204.70 (All-In)

Re: pair + FD oop
 

I think you answered your own question. JJ, QQ, KK, AA, 99, 22 instantly look you up. I think you should call and reevaluate on the turn given your reads.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

I think only worse hands fold here, and your hand looks alot like what it is - a big draw. If I was looking to get this all in on the flop, I'd probably try a b3b - looks more like a set and gives you a better price when it all goes in. I would just call this bet and see what unfolds, though.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

If you call here you pretty much gotta open shove the turn, cause if you check, he'll bet, and no raise you can make will get him to fold. That being said, what turn cards do you think would scare someone in the 99-AA, AJ, AK range? (that don't also make you a winner) Being a flip to most hands here, you are looking for FE, and I don't see you having much more than you already do right now...

Re: pair + FD oop
 

I think leading the flop will win you more money in the long run. Then if he raises you can three bet all in.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

Would you ever do this with a made hand?
Also, since he doesn't CB(or rarely) I'd rather just bet3bet

Re: pair + FD oop
 

I definitely just call. I really dislike pushing in this scenario actually.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

Why in the world are you pushing for 200 into a $50 pot? Is this how you play your good hands or only the ones where you want people to fold?

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why in the world are you pushing for 200 into a $50 pot? Is this how you play your good hands or only the ones where you want people to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i'd obviously push a set against this guy.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

one question:

why call a rock's PF raise OOP if you can get a great flop and still be in a pickle?...

also for those who say to just call... is that really the best?...

you get 2:1 odds for your next card... ~6:1 implied odds...

if a blank comes on turn what then?... if you check villian most certainly bets imo... then you fold?... that doesn't sound right... i figger if you are willing to call down you might as well push... even a little FE tilts the scale in your favour... who knows mebbe he is capable of laying down his QQ-AA

Re: pair + FD oop
 

So you know his hand range is ahead of you, you know you have little to no fold equity, yet your still pushing?

Re: pair + FD oop
 

you're play screams exactly what you have, you're only getting called by a hand that is ahead here, and considering the reads I'd call.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
So ... no FE

[/ QUOTE ]
Call.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
So you know his hand range is ahead of you, you know you have little to no fold equity, yet your still pushing?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need any fold equity for the push to be +EV. You're about 1:1 to make your hand and getting 1.125:1 pot odds if called.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
if a blank comes on turn what then?... if you check villian most certainly bets imo... then you fold?... that doesn't sound right...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going to check-call the flop, that seems like the best line though. Really it's just another argument for betting/3-betting all-in.

If he has a set, he's calling either way. He will probably (if your "rock" read is accurate) lay down an overpair to a bet/3-bet as well. He probably lays it down to the check-raise too, but this way you win a bigger pot.

If he just calls, then I'm damn certain he doesn't have a set, and again assuming the read is right, you can probably get him off the turn since they that I would define as "rocks" are *extremely* reluctant to lose their stacks with "just one pair".

Otoh, he calls, turn blanks, you bet, he pushes, you might have to lay it down (depends on the stack sizes obviously), but I'd feel pretty good about my 5 non-club outs in this case, fwiw.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you know his hand range is ahead of you, you know you have little to no fold equity, yet your still pushing?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need any fold equity for the push to be +EV. You're about 1:1 to make your hand and getting 1.125:1 pot odds if called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually we're only 47% to win against overpairs/set, so the play is slightly -EV with no FE.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you know his hand range is ahead of you, you know you have little to no fold equity, yet your still pushing?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need any fold equity for the push to be +EV. You're about 1:1 to make your hand and getting 1.125:1 pot odds if called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually we're only 47% to win against overpairs/set, so the play is slightly -EV with no FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

By 2 hundreths, NIT! 53/47= 1.128

BTW, I don't like the line you took.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

i like b/3b here, or c/c flop, lead turn or possibly open push turn

Re: pair + FD oop
 

Against a rock, c/c is fine here. And I agree that if you want to put your stack in the middle, a b3b is better.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

thought here

his draw is extremely obvious if any club comes is he rly going to get much more out of villian? the only card i can see him geting paid off on is if he hits 2 pair and villian doesnt have a set. does he rly have the odds to call here?

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
does he rly have the odds to call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he's about 2:1 to make his hand by the turn and that's the price he's getting no?

Re: pair + FD oop
 

You guys are overcomplicating this. If he isnt folding, call and see what happens. If hes folding, put some pressure on.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

pretty sure he'll make up the implieds if he does get the flush. And if he gets a Q, he should be paid off nicely. J could be money too, although theres a decent chance that villain has a hand like AJ, or slows down his overpair when the top card comes.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

Is it that terrible to lead $15 here, if raised to around $50 then push?

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is it that terrible to lead $15 here, if raised to around $50 then push?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, and several people have already suggested this.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
does he rly have the odds to call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he's about 2:1 to make his hand by the turn and that's the price he's getting no?

[/ QUOTE ]

thats assuming all his outs are good, 2 pair or another jack might not win it for him, id give him 11 outs on average, with 9 of those being pretty obvious hits if i was villian.

if u lead out on a club turn or check raise me on a club turn and i have aa u arent getting much out of me, same if the a 2nd j hits and i dont have 1. rly a q is the best card cuz u win the most from an aa type hand, but also lose a lot to a set.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is it that terrible to lead $15 here, if raised to around $50 then push?

[/ QUOTE ]

b3b is definitely better than crai, but I don't think it's all that hot assuming 0 FE. Either way we're putting all the money in on the flop, and although we get the odds we need with the b3b due to the increased pot size, the odds are kind of artificial. I mean, we created these odds with the intention of accomplishing the same goal as a crai - getting it all in the middle on the flop. Regardless of the betting pattern, if we see this flop, feel we have 0 FE, and end up putting it all in it seems marginal to me. With some measure of FE against a not nit, I like the b3b a lot, incidentally. Against the villain described I still think a call is better.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

This all depends on if he raises, and then C/bets with AK-AQ and maybe a pair of tens.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

i lead/donkbet this flop 99% of the time.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

I don't get the advice here.

1) Why do we have no FE? We've been told villain is a rock/nit and yet we're saying he calls off his entire stack 100% of the time with one pair. WTF?

2) Is a b/3b reallly better than a C/R AI? By this, I mean, does it actually have more FE? Lets say we lead for $20. a) does he always raise? I'm not 100% sure he does. b) he'll raise to like 60-70 odd and be getting great odds on calling our push. At least with the C/R, while our line looks a bit fishy, he's getting horrible odds to call when he know best case he's flipping vs a combo draw

3) Like younghov says, do we really have odds to call? I mean, our implied odds are shot really. A jack or a club hits and we get little. A queen hits and we get stacked by QQ/JJ and AJ isn't putting any more money in. So is the flop call all that +EV?

Re: pair + FD oop
 

from my experience u mosty only get paid with flushes in 2 circumstances v tight players.

when u raise pre flop and flop a fd with something like ak on a raggy board and he has a draw/set/2 pair/over pair and commits himself on flop or calls flop leads turn strong.

or when u flop a low top pair with an aj type hand and catch a backdoor flush to give u the nuts and he has at least 2 pair and doesnt put u on a backdoor because u bet flop and bet or called turn.

v donkeys u have odds to check call obvious draws cuz they pay u off anyway, but v tight players u rly dont get paid off enough to call potsized bets with obvious draws.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Against a rock, c/c is fine here. And I agree that if you want to put your stack in the middle, a b3b is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

About the b3b.. Why is it better? If he's not folding, we get the same odds. But a c/r gains his c-bet just incase he has TT/AK or decides to get away from QQ.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

against this guy, c/r is wayyyyyy better than b3b.

if he raises the flop, you have zero fold equity. he is not folding ANYTHING at that point.

Re: pair + FD oop
 

[ QUOTE ]
against this guy, c/r is wayyyyyy better than b3b.

if he raises the flop, you have zero fold equity. he is not folding ANYTHING at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. I think a lot of rock-ish players would raise the flop bet with an overpair (or maybe even AK), and then fold it to a 3 bet since it "must be a set". I think the reason to prefer bet/3bet to CR is that you gain more when he lays it down.