Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

I'm looking to take a shot at a bigger game than my local 4/8 and 6/12 games, which I beat reasonably well ($8-10/hr over 150 hours). I've sweated the Commerce 9, and it feels beatable-- I can identify mistakes players are making, and most of the time can locate a seat at the table I'd feel like a favorite in.
Where would you take a first shot at a bigger game? I'm spending most of next week in Vegas, and have all summer to grow the balls for Commerce 9 if I don't play higher than 6/12 in Vegas next week.
Perhaps I'm asking the wrong question-- do you take shots when you run hot and feel on top of your game? Rather than obsessing over where, should I just wait until I run good and move up wherever I'm playing that day?
-curtis

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

LA Games are much looser and softer than Vegas games. There are exactly two 8/16 games and one 10/20 game in the city of Vegas nowadays.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

The games are softer in LA but the rake is significantly higher (probably twice as high) compared to Vegas. Id prolly go with Vegas.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

If you can afford it, just take the shot in either place. The difference is mostly the scared money factor. If you are used to playing 6/12, 8/16 is only 25% bigger anyway?

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

I don't mean to be a buzzkill here, but that's an incredibly small sample to consider "beating the game." If you really think that you are beating the game it shouldn't be based on and hourly rate over 150 hours. With a sample that small it should be based on how well you're playing. If you think that you are playing well enough to move up do it, but don't let a winrate like that affect your decision. Good luck with whatever you do....and I'd probably say Vegas....come on....IT'S VEGAS!

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

live 8/16 games are a joke.
don't worry about it, just move up if you have the roll.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

I play the Commerce 9-18 regularly, it's a good game, the players are by far the loosest players I have ever played against. If you play a tight aggressive game you should do good there but be prepared for the occasional bad beat.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

I play all three. My play is almost exclusively late night(after 9pm until 3 or 4am) on weekends. I contend that the daytime $9-18 at Commerce is too tight for even a good player to overcome the rake. Daytime $8-16 and $10-20 in Vegas is not ever worth bothering with most of the year.

Commerce $9-18. I have over 600 hours the past two years and beating it for $27 an hour Its very beatable...ridiculously so. Most of the players are awful. If you can beat $6-12 LHE anywhere, you can beat this game. But be aware that the games are so loose that swings are wicked bad. My worst downswing was over $3K. If you are just taking a shot over a weekend....a $1800 BR should suffice. Any less than that and you risk going busto on day 1.

Vegas $8-16. There is a game at Bellagio and a game at Wynn. Wynn is nicer and you don't have to think F.U. about any of the employees, but the games are much tougher on average than Bellagio. Lines are long. The game is no where near as good as Commerce's $9-18 but the rake is cheaper, drinks are free, and variance is low. Play standard LHEFAP and you will do fine.

Mirage $10-20: Some people don't like this game. But I do not think it is tough at all. Play a modified LHEFAP, being extremely aggressive in position. Steal and bluff a lot, except against the old guy with the glasses and the crazy hair. He is a decent player, but calls down with anything if he thinks you bluff. When the games gets loose(and it will if you get caught bluffing a couple times) adjust your game back to TAG.

Overall, it really depends why you are going.....are you wanting poker exclusively, or

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

what do you look like stern? if you're a regular there i'm sure i've ran into you a few times.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

The wynn 8/16 is a great game. Im playing it today. It can be very agressive though so be ready for a wild ride.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

Stern: thanks for the detail; it was all I was hoping for.

I understand 150hr isn't a big sample (~5000 hands), but it's what I have. I also have ~10K hands as a winner at 1/2 online to support my belief than I can beat 4/8 and 6/12 live, as well as non-results observations.

I've had only bad experiences at Bellagio, so I'll sweat the Wynn 8 next week, and plan on playing commerce 9 when I can tolerate a $1200 shot without bankroll worry.

Thanks again for not flaming my first thread.
-curtis

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

[ QUOTE ]
what do you look like stern? if you're a regular there i'm sure i've ran into you a few times.

[/ QUOTE ]

stern has a striking resembelance to Craig Feldspar from Malcolm in the Middle [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

http://www.wchstv.com/abc/ellen/higgins.jpg

http://www.tvshows.de/ellen/images/davidahiggins.jpg

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My worst downswing was over $3K.



[/ QUOTE ]

I am getting close to that number in the 9/18. Actually between the commerce 9 and the 20, and the oceans 8/16, i am down $5k since summer started. I played at oceans a few times after that jackpot situation at commerce, however the longer drive kinda got to me and i have reverted back to the commerce 9. if i hit another table share, then so be it.

you still play the 9? i thought you had moved to the 20? i was in the 9, last friday. the games were no where near as wild as i wanted and i dropped a rack.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

the last couple times ive played the 9 i haven't been that impressed...seems hit/miss last few months...

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

The Vegas games will most likely be tougher, but they are also more passive which means less variance. I can see this having some appeal if you are taking a shot.

The Wynn 8/16 often times plays very similar to Party 1/2. Lots of limping and very little raising preflop. And when you raise they always check to you and when you bet they decide if they want to call or fold. Pretty straightforward.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

well fug. i just got back from oceans. dropped another $700 in the 8 game.

there is no end in sight.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

csuf-- how many BB will you lose before considering that you might not be playing your A game? From all I have read here, a 200BB downswing in live games 15 or smaller is really rare. You are approaching 300BB, no? What keeps happening in these games that has you down ~$6K?
-Curtis

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

[ QUOTE ]
From all I have read here, a 200BB downswing in live games 15 or smaller is really rare.
-Curtis

[/ QUOTE ]

say what now?

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

OK, a few links for what I was talking about: (sorry, I don't know how to make links work well)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post3937755

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post3949785

Tommy's worthy of worship around here, so perhaps his input isn't reflective of the swings of mere mortals. PokerBob is "rattled" by a 200BB live downswing. I was only pointing out to CSUF that by the time you're down 200BB live, you should be taking a serious look at your game, as it doesn't happen often.

In general, I believe that the extra attention paid to each opponent when playing live versus multitabling usually results in a higher winrate and/or lower variance compared to multitabling online. Many bankroll noob questions are answered with 500BB online, 300BB live (both for low-limit play) for just this reason. If CSUF had just 300BB for his live limit, he'd be nearly broke. An earlier reply in this thread mentioned $27/hr at 9/18 over a decent (for live) sample-- that's 4.5 BB/100, roughly. Again, winrates that high are not going to lead to 200BB downswings often, if at all.

I've experienced a 200BB downswing online in my first 35K hands, but no more than 75BB so far in 300 hrs live (10K hands?). These are small samples, but fit with the notes in those links.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

VB,

knowing Csuf's winrate is not enough to evaluate the bankroll he will need for his game...bankroll requirements are a factor of both winrate and standard deviation...so if his winrate is 4bb/100, but his deviation is high (which is often the case in crazy/aggro live games) then his bankroll should be larger than someone is a super passive game...

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

[ QUOTE ]
csuf-- how many BB will you lose before considering that you might not be playing your A game? From all I have read here, a 200BB downswing in live games 15 or smaller is really rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

im playing the same game as i played a month ago, 2 months ago, same thing.

when june started it just went str8 downhill.





[ QUOTE ]
You are approaching 300BB, no? What keeps happening in these games that has you down ~$6K?
-Curtis

[/ QUOTE ]

big hands not holding up, not catching draws, not catching cards, AA goes 4 bets pf then gets outflopped, Ace flops on KK, sick rivers, you know the story.

And unlike most people who set silly stop loss limits, im willing to put more money on the table when im stuck. If theres big fish, then i keep playing, and keep getting rivered.... this is why these losses are only from like 5-6 sessions.

but yes, this downswing is getting quite annoying and frustrating. nothing i can do about it except keep playing.

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

Thirddan-- I've never considered the aggro factor when estimating bankroll, even though SD is a main input in the formula. I just assumed my live SD was the same as online, plugged in my estimated winrate, got a number under 300BB, and decided the big round numbers I'd read were good enough.
Every time I've played at Commerce, the pots were huge-- bigger than any online game I can think of. This random aggression likely results in higher variance (along with higher winrates), and means I need to build a bigger roll to do anything beyond take a shot at the 9.
In Vegas, the 4 and 6 games seem extremely passive, "honest", and low variance. I suppose the 300 number refers to most below-15 games in Vegas, and CSUF's June shows my need to rethink my BR needs to play commerce.
CSUF-- I'll read your reply again next time I have a big downer. It's hard to play the same when you're getting killed.
-curtis

Re: Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?
 

Commerce $9-18.....

I've found good games every time I go, but like I said, mostly on weekends. Maybe it's my personality too. Sometimes I'm quiet, sometimes I'm friendly, and sometimes I'm loud. But I usually have a Corona in hand. I've sat down at a TON of tight tables, only to see every one go bonkers within 30 minutes or so. I would suggest that if you are angry/solid/wear sunglasses...ie anything anitsocial at all, that is the type of thing that helps kill action in a game and you may want to rethink your image at a table. For instance, the game I sat in Saturday night held the most action of the $9-18 games available that night. And it was typical for me...beer in hand, friendly, downplay my wins, etc. I got payed in multiple places, even on the river, almost every hand I was in.

As to the variance of this game....it's huge. I can see a decent player taking a $5.4K(300BB) downswing. I've been on runs where face pairs and flopped sets get continously run down. If you are playing aggro players and on a run where 1 out of ten face pairs is winning for a while, you will lose lots of money. In fact, I think that the only reason that the variance of that game is not even higher, is that so many people bluff, even with huge pots, and it gives you an additional few bets when you win(bluffer plus people calling the bluffer without regards to what anyone else in the hand might be holding).