NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

Villain is 60/40. Very agg postflop, but not crazy. His standard pf raise is 6 and it doesn't mean much. I've called down one of his 3-barrel bluffs and bluffed him off a couple hands recently, so he's trying to get me. I know because he said "I'm going to get you." I don't know if "get" means bluff me off a hand or get me involved in a big pot when he has a monster.

Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 5: Seat 5 ( $205.04 )
Seat 1: Villain ( $832.34 )
Seat 2: Seat 2 ( $215.33 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $383.55 )
Seat 4: Seat 4 ( $119.43 )

Hero posts small blind [$1].
Seat 4 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
Seat 5 calls [$2].
Villain raises [$6].
Seat 2 folds.
Hero raises [$19].
Seat 4 folds.
Seat 5 folds.
Villain raises [$54].

I haven't seen him reraise very often, so I was inclined to give him credit for a hand. Maybe 88+ AQ+, but that might be generous.

Hero calls [$40].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
Hero checks
Villain bets [$100].

Your play? Plan for the rest of the hand?

He's most likely putting it in the next chance he gets to bet.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

Fold preflop? As played I don't see any other way than allin, although I'd like to have bet first instead of checked

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

Easy fold pre-flop.

As played, c/r all in looks perfect.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

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He's most likely putting it in the next chance he gets to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because your putting it in yourself.

Preflop is gross oop

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

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Fold preflop? As played I don't see any other way than allin, although I'd like to have bet first instead of checked

[/ QUOTE ]
I really don't like betting this flop.

If you bet anywhere near pot, you'll be pot committed to call a push. I'd much rather get the last bet in.

Besides, if he's on air or AK, you get a CBet out of him.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

Why is preflop so standard vs a 60/40??

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is preflop so standard vs a 60/40??

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Unless his 4beting range is known to be wide, I don't see what we're hoping for with AQs here?

Also on a second thought a c/r allin is probably best move on the flop yeah

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

I pretty much agree with others. Without an extremely wide 4b range, you've gotta fold this PF. On the flop, cr all in.

- C -

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
he's trying to get me. I know because he said "I'm going to get you."

[/ QUOTE ]
lol.

Fold preflop, checkraise all-in on the flop if you make it there.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

it's a tossup, now that you're in the flop.

about $150 behind and you know your flush outs are good, your A and (less likely Q) might be good.
getting about 1:2 if he calls your push plus a tiny amount of fold equity.

so it is just the right odds to push, you can either push or fold up to you. mathematically it's the same, it's just up to how much you like variance.

later,
illmatic

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
it's a tossup, now that you're in the flop.

about $150 behind and you know your flush outs are good, your A and (less likely Q) might be good.
getting about 1:2 if he calls your push plus a tiny amount of fold equity.

so it is just the right odds to push, you can either push or fold up to you. mathematically it's the same, it's just up to how much you like variance.

later,
illmatic

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero has too much equity to fold the flop. It's not a variance based decision, it's an EV one.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's a tossup, now that you're in the flop.

about $150 behind and you know your flush outs are good, your A and (less likely Q) might be good.
getting about 1:2 if he calls your push plus a tiny amount of fold equity.

so it is just the right odds to push, you can either push or fold up to you. mathematically it's the same, it's just up to how much you like variance.

later,
illmatic

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero has too much equity to fold the flop. It's not a variance based decision, it's an EV one.

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Definitely.

There's too much money in the pot, and not enough behind to fold here.

Furthermore, villian could easily have AK, or a possible bluff, or a scared pair like JJ, and fold, which is huge.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's a tossup, now that you're in the flop.

about $150 behind and you know your flush outs are good, your A and (less likely Q) might be good.
getting about 1:2 if he calls your push plus a tiny amount of fold equity.

so it is just the right odds to push, you can either push or fold up to you. mathematically it's the same, it's just up to how much you like variance.

later,
illmatic

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero has too much equity to fold the flop. It's not a variance based decision, it's an EV one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Definitely.

There's too much money in the pot, and not enough behind to fold here.

Furthermore, villian could easily have AK, or a possible bluff, or a scared pair like JJ, and fold, which is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you do if he checks behind and the turn is a brick

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
what do you do if he checks behind the turn is a brick

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that this will almost never ever happen, but if it did, I suppose I would fire out a bet, and fold to a raise.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

hmmmm... I get a feeling for what you are saying, but I'm not sure how to put it into words that convinces me intellectually.

how much equity do we have in the pot, given that we put only $50 of the $200 into it? We have $330 or so behind and only $50 invested, I really don't hate a fold here, although I might not play that way.

I think we can exclude the bluff here given the RR and the decent pot bet, AK is a possible holding.

If there is fold equity, I am good with the AI but with the past history, I think the fold equity is nil here. the guy is calling.

So we have only $50 invested in the pot and now we are getting just the right odds (not +EV odds) to draw.

I think it's a thin EV move either + or -.

thoughts?

later
illmatic

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

To give you an idea of how much equity we have here...

Giving him an incredibly nitty range of AA/KK, we still have 42% equity

Board: Td 7d 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.0539 % 42.05% 00.00% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 57.9461 % 57.95% 00.00% { KK+ }

Even if he were to open push on the flop, we would be getting 1.3:1 pot odds, so we're taking only slightly the worst of it, as a 1.5:1 dog.

In the actual scenario, we still have some fold equity, vs some of his holdings (AK in particular), and will also have better equity, since his range is probably wider than just AA/KK.

Seems like a very clear push, to me.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

Jim's numbers illustrate well while folding is throwing away money.

[ QUOTE ]
with the past history, I think the fold equity is nil here. the guy is calling.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I would say that the past history makes it more likely that the villain is bluffing. He's 60/40 and he's "out to get us."

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

I think you've really just underscored my point... it all depends whether we think there is fold equity or not, and that's the difference. I think there is no fold equity here, but you disagree. If there is zero fold equity, getting 1.3 to 1 on the push/opp call as a 1.5 to 1 dog is a bad move. If there is significant fold equity and/or opp range is larger than you are doing OK to push, but it's not the juiciest push in the world either.

isn't that fair to say?

later
illmatic

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

Keep in mind the 1.5:1 is based on a range of KK+. Given the past history and villain's stats, I think we can agree his range is at least slightly wider than that.

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
To give you an idea of how much equity we have here...

Giving him an incredibly nitty range of AA/KK, we still have 42% equity

Board: Td 7d 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.0539 % 42.05% 00.00% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 57.9461 % 57.95% 00.00% { KK+ }

Even if he were to open push on the flop, we would be getting 1.3:1 pot odds, so we're taking only slightly the worst of it, as a 58/42 = 1.38:1 dog.

In the actual scenario, we still have some fold equity, vs some of his holdings (AK in particular), and will also have better equity, since his range is probably wider than just AA/KK.

Seems like a very clear push, to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

FMP

Add in Just QQ, and we're basically even money. If any weaker hands are possible at all, it's clearly +EV.

Board: Td 7d 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.2828 % 43.28% 00.00% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 56.7172 % 56.72% 00.00% { QQ+ }

1.31:1

Re: NL200 - \"I\'m going to get you\"
 

I agree with this, although QQ is somewhat less likely since we have a Q. But if you want to open his range to include lower pairs and other hands, then you have to include TT which would pull the balance the other way and make it a less favorable call.

The bottom line is it's still going to be a thin call. This is nowhere near a great opportunity for you to stack a guy although it may be marginally mathematically correct to call.

With respect to meta game, against an opponent that you think you are better than, and who is getting overaggro against you, there are much better spots to get their money than to take an even money, or slightly better than even money shot.

Say it were similar $600 stacks, preflop action is that he raised, you raised to $50 and opponent raises all in with you holding 22. You happened to see his cards when he lifted them up and you are sure he has a face card and some other card, non-paint. So you know he is holding overcards, and not an overpair.

Do you call? It is obviously +EV to call, since you are a 52-55% favorite.

Why or why not, and why is this situation that much different than the above?

later,
illmatic