The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

I really really hate spots like this. Pretty new to the table, so no reads.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $141
UTG+1: $59.85
CO: $216.10
Hero: $217
SB: $181.17
BB: $196.09

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($17, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($41, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $30</font>, BB calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($101, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $70</font>, Hero?????

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Ugly. I fold.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Well, I'd make this lead with any two, given the fact that it is a perfect card to blow you off the hand. But I'm not sure most would. I think it's a fold.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

this is a tough one. did he do anything that stands out as far as timing, like insta-check, insta-call, or insta-bet that we could use to help?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

As played I fold.

On the turn, I think pushing has merit. You don't want to give odds to flush chasers, and you may stack 99 and sets. Thoughts? 3/4 pot can't be optimal here, can it?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Its not pretty, but I'm calling here.

Reasons to fold:
1 - flush got there
2 - boat got there

Reasons to call:
1 - we have the As so villain is a little less likely to be chasing a flush here with the betting we've done.
2 - if he boated, he did it with JT or QT because he would have popped us earlier with a set given that scary board.
3 - villain could easily float AT on the flop, picked up a pair on the turn, and think his trips are good on the river
4 - we're getting &gt; 2:1 on our call here, which isn't great, but the list of hands that villain reasonably has that beat us is fairly short.

I'm calling this bet.

FishNChips

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

I'd hate to give AKs a freeroll here, though it's just one of his hands.

If villian did have AKs though I'd expect him to invest much more on the turn, which you can't know until he just calls your bet.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

He can't have AKs, at least not one we are worried about. We are holding the naked ace of spades.

Incidentally, thoughts on shoving the river with the naked ace? In my opinion this is -EV because stacks aren't deep enough and this villain may not be good enough to lay down his small flush. I am guessing on this since I am not very familiar with $100NL, but is this worth considering?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

lets not forget that villain can have a naked 9 here too. I call because he can be overvaluing a naked 9 or trips here. If he's got me, he's got me, but i'm calling. Case can be made for pushing the turn...he's not likely to call a PSB with much other than the made straight anyway...and if he's got the 9, he'll call a push.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Yeah you're right there is no freeroll chance on the turn. If we overpot it though we lose value from weaker hands that won't chase.

With villian having less than 80 behind on river I don't think pushing to fold small flush works against an unknown often enough here. This is 200NL btw.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

all,

the push on the turn is a 4xpot bet. WTF are ppl advocating this?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
all,

the push on the turn is a 4xpot bet. WTF are ppl advocating this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obv Europe is different. In the U.S. we blast the crack pipe at 2:15 every afternoon.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
If we overpot it though we lose value from weaker hands that won't chase.


[/ QUOTE ]

really important imo, if villain has a 9 we'll take his money anyway.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
all,

the push on the turn is a 4xpot bet. WTF are ppl advocating this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obv Europe is different. In the U.S. we blast the crack pipe at 2:15 every afternoon.

[/ QUOTE ]

And in 5 more hours it'll be time for our friendly afternoon session as well.

OP, I don't like a turn push, I was saying overpotting it loses the hands we want to stick around.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
all,

the push on the turn is a 4xpot bet. WTF are ppl advocating this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well just look at the river!!11!!!1

I think this is a bit close because of the one-card straight on the board. Not really sure what I'd do but folding is an option.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

My reasoning for overbetting the turn heavily is to minimize the chance of an awkward river situation as happened. If not a push, I think betting ~80 would accomplish the same. No baby flush will call, except for 89s. With this strong hand I do not want to gamble on the 84% chance that the river will not complete (what we think is) villain's flush. On this board I am more than happy to take what's there already and to stack 99.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

What 2 spades is villian calling pre-flop with? I can only put him on K9. If villian has K9, I expect a reraise on turn, since he just made a straight.

Tough hand, but I have to call this. His line makes A10 or K10 likely enough to to call a 3/4 pot bet. I fear a boat and only a boat.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

dbitel,

You have top straight, and it's only 70 to you. Unless this guy is an established nit, I call this quickly.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

I hate spots like this. Its marginal. That said, I call against most players.

-Tickner

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

I really would have liked to have seen a bigger turn bet dbitel...Several reasons why:

1. several draws out there all of which you beat at the moment
2. take away his odds in terms of odds to chase
3. your taking away his odds in terms of implied odds if he were to hit
4. Your gonna force a naked 9 into a tough decision/ may cause him to push a naked 9 or even a hand like k9. all which we want
5. your getting the majority of the money in while ur clearly ahead of other hands which is always good

Probabyl some more reasons but i think u understand...But as played I call...you still beat plenty to make this call profitable

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

this is extremely read dependant IMO.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is extremely read dependant IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

This type of advice is really helpful for dbitel on how to play the hand.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is extremely read dependant IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
from the OP:
[ QUOTE ]
Pretty new to the table, so no reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

so what's your read on an unknown player? mine is that unknown players don't bluff scare cards, so i fold. i wonder how this read will change as i move up past $50NL.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Your turn bet is fine.

Could have a bare 9 but it seems unlikely given the PF action. He could also have AK but I think AK bets the turn to deny flush draw odds to you and try to get the money in good (then again, there are lots of donks at 1/2 as well).

I think it's most likely he has what he's representing. The only hand you're ahead of that he represents is 9x. I think the only hand that sort of fits is K9s but that's obviously unlikely.

He'd have to be awfully aggro/ballsy to bluff bet this river on such a board.

I fold.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
so what's your read on an unknown player? mine is that unknown players don't bluff scare cards, so i fold. i wonder how this read will change as i move up past $50NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the river card truly a scare card for Villain? Villian has just been bet into on the last 2 streets, from a player who could have taken a free card. Does he put our Hero on a spade flush draw?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so what's your read on an unknown player? mine is that unknown players don't bluff scare cards, so i fold. i wonder how this read will change as i move up past $50NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the river card truly a scare card for Villain? Villian has just been bet into on the last 2 streets, from a player who could have taken a free card. Does he put our Hero on a spade flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry if i wasn't clear .. i meant that it's a scare card for Hero, not Villain. but, my read on unknown villains is that they won't take that as a neon sign saying "bluff into the hero now." vs. epdaws, of course, it's an instacall [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

sorry for my ignorance, but what does "float" mean?

thanks

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
sorry for my ignorance, but what does "float" mean?

thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

To call a bet one one street with the sole intention of raising to steal on a future street.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

What do you beat. And I mean exact hands.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sorry for my ignorance, but what does "float" mean?

thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

To call a bet one one street with the sole intention of raising to steal on a future street.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hey Grunch (or any other mod, of course), shouldn't this be in the main sticky somewhere prominent?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so what's your read on an unknown player? mine is that unknown players don't bluff scare cards, so i fold. i wonder how this read will change as i move up past $50NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the river card truly a scare card for Villain? Villian has just been bet into on the last 2 streets, from a player who could have taken a free card. Does he put our Hero on a spade flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry if i wasn't clear .. i meant that it's a scare card for Hero, not Villain. but, my read on unknown villains is that they won't take that as a neon sign saying "bluff into the hero now." vs. epdaws, of course, it's an instacall [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]


Ok, I see what you meant. But in my opinion, the Villain isn't bluffing here to represent the spade flush. He is either betting his trips, or his boat. I vote trips, so I call


[ QUOTE ]
What do you beat. And I mean exact hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

A10 can play that line. K10 will also play that line.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you beat. And I mean exact hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This whole time I was thinking villain had KT. Given this river, couldn't KT lead here?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suppose you are Villain with K10. Post-Flop, you put Hero on Top Pair with good to best kicker. How do you play this hand?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so what's your read on an unknown player? mine is that unknown players don't bluff scare cards, so i fold. i wonder how this read will change as i move up past $50NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the river card truly a scare card for Villain? Villian has just been bet into on the last 2 streets, from a player who could have taken a free card. Does he put our Hero on a spade flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry if i wasn't clear .. i meant that it's a scare card for Hero, not Villain. but, my read on unknown villains is that they won't take that as a neon sign saying "bluff into the hero now." vs. epdaws, of course, it's an instacall [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]


Ok, I see what you meant. But in my opinion, the Villain isn't bluffing here to represent the spade flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh .. I think I must be super-bad at explaining things today. I don't think Villain is bluffing to represent the spade flush either. I don't think an unknown villain is bluffing here very much at all.

[ QUOTE ]
He is either betting his trips, or his boat. I vote trips, so I call

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain has to be pretty balsy to bet rivered trips on that board. Call, call, call, lead and no chance of a flush?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

Villian liked his hand preflop, on the flop, the turn, and even more on the river. It seems reasonable to believe QT and JT are in the Villian's range for defending against a button raise.

The hero's read then is that the villian is showing strength on all streets. I think therefore the Hero's only read indicates a fold. If the Villian is bluffing or has a worse hand then the Hero can afford to wait until the edge is better and the read more clear.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sorry for my ignorance, but what does "float" mean?

thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

To call a bet one one street with the sole intention of raising to steal on a future street.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hey Grunch (or any other mod, of course), shouldn't this be in the main sticky somewhere prominent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep! Thanks for the suggestion.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[/ QUOTE ]

Suppose you are Villain with K10. Post-Flop, you put Hero on Top Pair with good to best kicker. How do you play this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well..hero was button so his raise could really be anything, including hands that have a 9 in it. His range here is a lot wider then just top pair, overpair type of hands. I don't know maybe I'm just a little weak when it comes to being out of position and I'm too quick to assume others are too. If I were villain I wouldn't exclude a made straight, full house, or rivered flush from hero's range of hands and knowing those were all possibilities, I wouldn't want to lead into him with trips knowing he can come over the top and put me at a difficult decision for all of my chips.

Edit: Sorry I didn't really answer your question. I was just trying to explain why I wouldn't lead into him with trips on the river. Also, I fold K-10/A-10 on the turn.

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

A lot of people sure like to put villain (or, from the villain's perspective, the hero) on one or two exact hands. Except in very special situations, I don't have much success doing that.

notevenhere: if you had to give a full range of hands that villain might have, rather that just the specific two that we beat, what would it look like?

Re: The poker gods giveth and they taketh away
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised so many people advocate calling here. For me this is a pretty clear fold. The villain is clearly representing that he is not afraid of you coming over the top of his bet with a big raise. I mean, it sucks, you had the absolute nuts on the turn, but, honestly what do you beat?

Edit: Unless the player is really stupid he would never lead like that with K-10 or A-10 as the prior poster has suggested. If he had position on you and you checked to him, maybe, but lets keep in mind that you have position and that you have shown aggression on every street.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets list hands that villain could play this way:

2spades : If he has K9 he's probably going to play the turn stronger given that he made a straight. 9s8s -- ass end of the straight, he makes a bigger play on the turn as well. There are a lot of combinations of spades and he certainly could be on one of them.

AT / KT / T9 : fewer combos but wouldn't KT or T9 make a lot of sense. He defends with it. He flops OESD. He turns a pair. He rivers trips. And he's putting villain on some Q and thinks his trips are good and makes a nice value bet with them.

JT : OK, we're screwed if he's got this, but doesn't he pop us with that draw heavy board earlier in the hand?

QT : Again, screwed, but I think villain hits us pretty good on the turn rather than waiting for the river.

I think there are plenty of hands we're still ahead of. Yes, there are plenty of hands we're behind, but how many of them play the hand the way this was played. I'm giving villain T9 or KT, not spades, and I'm calling the value bet.

Its also slightly possible that villain has a totally busted draw, saw the board pair and thinks he can take the pot with a value sized bet. It may only be 2% chance, but its still a chance.

I'm not 100% sure that calling is right, but I'm sure its not 100% right to fold either. Villain's range here is wide enough that we could be good enough to make it a reasonable call. I don't know how much metagame we get at $200NL, but calling here may let villain know that bluffing isn't a wonderful idea and might make it easier to play against villain on future hands. This could be totally wrong though.

~FishNChips