Round of 16 thoughts
 

I wanted to see the first game before I made a prediction on the entire round of 16, but here are my thoughts. It looks like the round of 16 will be more of the same. In my opinion 90% of the favorites are going to win these games. Games like Argentina today and Brazil in a few days, should be locks. Today I took a 2 team parlay with Germany and Argentina *to advance (you can believe me or not). I think that betting the team to advance is the best bet because as has been the trend so far, even with a bad game the better teams have prevailed in the end. This gives you a chance for your team to win it in extra time without taking a hit.

Additional things that have been working for me. I have bet the second half on a few games where a team lost a man in the first half. For example, Yesterday France 0-0 at half with Togo. Togo lost a man, so I took the 2nd Half (-1). Took at hit today on Germany's second half using the same principle, however if you are watching the games and able to make the bet, it might be helpful. Also, 2nd half bets on teams that have scored the first goal. The record for teams that scored first is like 32-6-6 or something insane. If you can grab a ML or a (pk) for that team 2nd half, most of the time you will win.

Again I see most of the favorites moving on, with a few games I am staying away from such as France v. Spain, Portugal v. Netherlands. If you feel risky, but a 4 or 5 team parlay on the teams you feel will move on to the next round and get some value. I put a little on a tough 5 team parlay that I hope works out Germany, Argentina, England, Italy, Brazil.
Hope this helps someone out.

Rush

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

which site are you using to put parlays on teams to advance?

bodog doesnt allow it wondering which site you are using

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

I always enjoy hearing from the people who pay my bills.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

I haven't been paying anyones bills during this World Cup. But hey, I'm open to hear any of your picks besides commenting on other peoples posts.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

I'm a huge soccer fan, but not a sports bettor. . . so take all this with a significant grain of salt. This is being written post Germany-Sweden and Argentina-Mexico.

Italy over Australia looks like a lock.
Netherlands vs. Portugal is almost uncallable, this should go to extra time. . . bet on that possibility if you can! I like Portugal; plenty of experienced players who know how to win. But again, it's terribly close.
Brazil over Ghana seems like a safe bet.
Switzerland-Ukraine is interesting; based on the form book, go with Switzerland. Sure, Ukraine can score goals, but this Swiss side has a proven track record dealing with adversity (playoff win over Turkey, several draws with France, etc.)
Spain vs. France should definitely go Spain's way; France has looked uninspired and static since Domenech took over. I can't fathom why Ludovic Giuly isn't at the World Cup, btw. Dittor for Pires. In contrast, Spain is in form, and all their stars are well-rested.
England vs. Ecuador could be close, but I don't see England blowing this one.

Hope this helps someone! What do you guys think?

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a huge soccer fan, but not a sports bettor. . . so take all this with a significant grain of salt. This is being written post Germany-Sweden and Argentina-Mexico.

Italy over Australia looks like a lock.
Brazil over Ghana seems like a safe bet.

Hope this helps someone! What do you guys think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are crazy if you think Italy is a lock over Australia and Brazil over Ghana is only a safe bet. Brazil over Ghana is much more likely than Italy over Australia. Australia > Ghana and Brazil >> Italy IMO.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

what are people's thoughts on the england/ecuador game tomorrow? i, for one, am not convinced that the game is the mortal lock for england that some have made it out to be...

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

I think England is the favorite, but certainly not a mortal lock. I probably would rate the most likely to win (going in to the round of 16) as:

1. Brazil
2. Germany
3. Argentina
4. Italy
5. England
6. Spain
7. Netherlands
8. Switzerland

But only the top 2 did I feel were near mortal locks.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
the mortal lock

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Is it something like "almost the nuts" in poker ? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
EDIT: or rather "almost flush" or "almost straight"...

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
what are people's thoughts on the england/ecuador game tomorrow? i, for one, am not convinced that the game is the mortal lock for england that some have made it out to be...

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I'm English, I think we'll just edge the game but as to whether this is a lock...questionable.

We are playing a new formation (4-5-1), Rooney as a lone striker (not match fit for 90min IMO), and apparently its searing 30degrees+ in Stuttgart today. Add to that England havent really overly convinced anyone yet of their quality.

I'm hopeful of us getting the victory but I see more value in the England HT/FT as I think with the heat and fitness we'll go for a quick start and hope to get a goal to defend. Ecuador dont keep possession well and we can use that to our advantage if we get the early goal to see us through.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

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Rooney as a lone striker (not match fit for 90min IMO)

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Barely match fit for 45 mins IMO

Sorry, I don't mean to be a whinger, but I'm also English and I'd love to see us do well, but when you get to my age and you've seen England over-bet as many times as I have, that 7-1 just stands out. The current England team is VERY ordinary IMO. One of the TV pundits yesterday suggested that we have five world class players. Who on earth he was talking about I've no idea.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

bingo.
if anybody believes in 'value' for a 5 game parlay they must also be funding the local psychiatric center

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

well, i used to live in london, so i'm quite familiar with the national team's woes in past years (hello beckham vs. argentina 1998). i think england will pull through, but i am extremely concerned about the temperature and ecuador's quality up front.

i ended up spreading the bets on the various ht/ft lines with england to win, and hedging it with the 3.5/1 on ecuador to qualify. best possible scenario for me is ecuador to lead at ht, and england to win at ft (28/1 at bodog). unlikely, but.....

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

Sorry, I did not mean to say value. What I meant is getting +300 odds instead of -700. Also, I said "if you feel risky." I put a little bit on that parlay because I think that it may happen. Sorry if you do not like my bets. Some people think -500 on a team advancing has no value. Thanks.

Rush

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

I'm very happy to admit that I couldn't have been more wrong about Rooney. The guy's as fit as a flea.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

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I'm very happy to admit that I couldn't have been more wrong about Rooney. The guy's as fit as a flea.

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too bad lampard still thinks the net is positioned in the stadium's upper deck.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Rooney as a lone striker (not match fit for 90min IMO)

[/ QUOTE ]
Barely match fit for 45 mins IMO

Sorry, I don't mean to be a whinger, but I'm also English and I'd love to see us do well, but when you get to my age and you've seen England over-bet as many times as I have, that 7-1 just stands out. The current England team is VERY ordinary IMO. One of the TV pundits yesterday suggested that we have five world class players. Who on earth he was talking about I've no idea.

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Well I'd say Lampard, Gerard, Beckham, and Owen are all world class (Beckham is like Ronaldo, even if he isn't as good as he once was, and isn't in perfect shape, he's still world class). I don't know if the 5th is supposed to be Cole, Rooney, or Crouch.

Re: Round of 16 thoughts
 

I would've said Gerrard, Rooney, Beckham, Lampard, and then...Terry? Or else J. Cole/Owen.