$1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

I might be getting involved in a prop bet, with a rich friend of my dads.

I have to start with $1000.
Can play up to 8 hours per day at no more than 6 tables, for a period of 30 days.( I will play NL 6max at Party)

Basically he gives me a free $25000 if I pass X amount of money. We are still discussing what to set X at.


I know this varies with players abilities but:

What can a good player realistically get to, with the above criteria? Throw some numbers out

This will help me get a rough idea, when we discuss what the X will be set at.


thanks

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

Hell, sit down with it all at the 5/10NL 6max and run goot and you could be up to what $14k in no time?

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

alot depends on how good you are... but I would say 10k-15k

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

you get to keep X too, right?

I think 40 hours a week is as much as you should plan on playing, so as to avoid life-sucking. (Even that'll be tough)

To maximize profitability and minimize chances of busto! I'd say 6-table on a 10-buyin minimum roll. So, play NL100 until you get to $2000, then jump to NL200 until $4000, then NL400 until $6000, then NL600 to the end.

I'd say set the mark 'X' at 5 ptbb/100 for all levels, 40 hours a week. Rough estimate: at NL100, $60/hr, at NL200, $120/hr, at NL400, $240/hr, at NL600, $360/hr. Estimate how much time you'll spend at each level...

Meh, I dont want to do more work, but I'll guess somewhere between $30K and $40K. Would be pretty tough, though, and not just winning-wise. You'll also have to deal with playing a [censored]-ton of cards all the time. If theres a downside to not getting to X, then that will make it harder.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

make it at LEAST 50k if you want it to be a good prop bet

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

or make it something like 15k if you want an easy +25k [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
make it at LEAST 50k if you want it to be a good prop bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I want it to be a fair prop bet, hes a great family friend. I dont lose anything if I dont win, and I do get to keep X at the end.

I would estimate 8-12 pt/bb at nl100-200, and 5 ptbb beyond.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

my goal would be to get the 25k, so im going as low as possible. Also WTF is this guy's incentive? and how does he know you won't fudge numbers?

a realistic number should probably be like 15k though. I would say 25k, makes the most sense and would be a realistic amount if you could start with more money so you could immediatly start 6 tabing 600nl and beyond

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
hes a great family friend.

I dont lose anything if I dont win, and I do get to keep X at the end.



[/ QUOTE ]

I would say so! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

theres got to be some sort of catch. like, this dude's son wants to bone your underage sister or something, and he figures if you're playing poker all the time trying to get to X, you won't be able to stop him.

If i'm right on that, that would be hilarious. and i should get X.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
my goal would be to get the 25k, so im going as low as possible. Also WTF is this guy's incentive? and how does he know you won't fudge numbers?

a realistic number should probably be like 15k though. I would say 25k, makes the most sense and would be a realistic amount if you could start with more money so you could immediatly start 6 tabing 600nl and beyond

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I was talking to him about the amount of money you can make in online poker, and he didnt believe it. So this is how this prop bet started. Whatever number we agree on, he's going to think for sure is not possible. And even if I win, its nothing to him. So I just wanted a rough estimate of what people though was possible.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

honestly it shouldnt be hard to hit 25-30k if you play all hours.

start at nl 200, 5 tables (maybe even buy in short at 2 tables for more hands), work your way up to around 2k-3k. thatll take maybe a day or two.

play nl 400, 6 tables, work your way up to 6k-ish. thatll take another day or two.

grind at 600 nl until you hit 25k.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I might be getting involved in a prop bet, with a rich friend of my dads.

I have to start with $1000.
Can play up to 8 hours per day at no more than 6 tables, for a period of 30 days.( I will play NL 6max at Party)

Basically he gives me a free $25000 if I pass X amount of money. We are still discussing what to set X at.


I know this varies with players abilities but:

What can a good player realistically get to, with the above criteria? Throw some numbers out

This will help me get a rough idea, when we discuss what the X will be set at.


thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

do you lose anything if you don't reach X? i'm assuming no.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

Ok. This is starting to get interesting.

I told him $20,000. he loled and said "oh he thinks he's a big shot poker player, why dont we make it interesting"


He said 40k, and instead of me getting 25k, its upped to 40k.

Now I am 1000% sure he stands by his word.

What deal do you choose

20-25k>>>>>for>>>>>25k

40k>>>>>>>>for>>> >>>40k

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

wowoowowoww 40k for 40k for sure!! only if ur confident in crushing 600 nl [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i wish i had family friends like this

how about you tell him for every 1k you make you get 1k of his money

bwahahhaa the ULTIMATE rakeback

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

wait tho - how many hands per day is 8 hours of six 6-max tables?

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

roughly 4k on party.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

at purely 600 nl running 5 ptbb/100 for 30 days thats $72k.

obviously you cant start 6-tabling 600 nl right away with only 1k, but i think 40k is doable if you run well and dont EVER tilt.

plus the game selection at 3/6 is HUGE

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

tell him your going to start with 5k..it shouldnt make a huge difference in your bet, since it seems to be about how much you can earn playing poke for a month. tell him starting with only 1k limits your options. THen head straight for the [censored] 40k for 40k...thats so sick

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
What deal do you choose

20-25k>>>>>for>>>>>25k

40k>>>>>>>>for>>> >>>40k

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm, lets see. Do I choose getting 25k almost for sure or do I choose getting 40k having to depend on running pretty good.

If 40k is doable, 20k should be easy.

Maybe I'm coloured by the fact that I play 200NL, but even good players get sucked out on. So staring out with 5 tables of 200NL seems risky. Specially since losing a couple of buy ins this early will then be a huge hit.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

To make 40K, you'll have to either run sick hot, or have no life for 30 days. maybe both.

I say stick with the 25K for 25K. Enjoy your life, be more confident, and still make a lot of scrilla.


Either way, you probably should stay off my tables if you want to have any chance of success.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

25k for 25k. I sincerely doubt you can make 40K in a month given the terms - don't listen to yves, he runs sick hot or incredibly cold. Basically if you have 3 or 4 bad days you're sunk, and playing 40 hours a week of 6 table poker is not easy, IMO - there will be lots of hours in there where you will not be playing your A game.

I wouldn't start with NL200 either - I'd go with Sensei's plan. Here's the question - at the end of the month would you be willing to go up to NL2000 to try to get to the goal?

Anyway this is obviously meant for BBV.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

When I started playing online, I had a starting roll of $500 and in the first month, ran that to just a tad over 20k playing only 2/4 full ring games on Stars. At first, it was four tables at a time, until I was able to get my dual 2001fp setup. Most of the damage was done 4 tabling it though. This was during the month of December, so naturally, there was a 2 week vacation from work that was added in there where I was playing as much Poker as I liked. But I don't think that I put in more than eight hours even once. Now, had I found the wonders of playing the 6-max tables when I started out then, I probably would have made more. If it weren't for my day job, I would be able to devote more time into playing. Now I am averaging about 4 hours a day. With most long sessions reserved for the weekend.

But I wouldn't be laying any odds here and would take it even money and go 25k/25k. Still impressive and who is to say that is easy? Provided you don't bust out with such a low starting bank roll, 25k should be just about right.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

I'd go for the $25K - risk averse.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
To make 40K, you'll have to either run sick hot, or have no life for 30 days. maybe both.

I say stick with the 25K for 25K. Enjoy your life, be more confident, and still make a lot of scrilla.


Either way, you probably should stay off my tables if you want to have any chance of success.

[/ QUOTE ]

am i the only one that wouldnt mind taking a month off life for 80k?

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

If you can't top-up if you lose the $1000 you have to make an adjustment for this. Lots of the times you build up a nice stash you will find that you go -$1000 at one point early on.

....and of course if you have a sticky start you won't be able to multi-table for a while.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
theres got to be some sort of catch. like, this dude's son wants to bone your underage sister or something, and he figures if you're playing poker all the time trying to get to X, you won't be able to stop him.

If i'm right on that, that would be hilarious. and i should get X.

[/ QUOTE ]
javascript:void(0)
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
HAHA
Omfg thats funny

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

Yeah, just to emphaise a point, you're going to have to run pretty good, if not very well. That winrates going to have to be near your true winrate, which as we know in poker, doesnt happen when we need it too.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

if rick can play 8 hours a day 6-tabling for 30 days w/no tilt he can do it

not to mention excercising some good game selection from nl 1k and nl 2k to mix in w/nl 600

if i had a month free id try this but im always busy

honestly i get about 50c/hand nowadays WITH my 2 big downswings, and 4k hands a day is about 120k hands. maybe 100k hands easy.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

it depends on how good you are +how long you can play. maintaining a good winrate 8 hrs a day (56 hour week) not counting meal breaks etc... for 30 days straight is going to be very tough for almost anyone.

to make 40K with 8 hours of poker a day=4000 hands per day (I think, I'm the last full ring player alive) 4000x30=120,000 hands, you need to run at 3.33PTBB per 100 hands, if you would be at 600NL the whole time. Assumeing you need to win a bit at other limits first, you probably need closer to 4.5 or 5 PTBB/100 at 600NL.

I would take the easy 25K, which has close to a 100% chance of happening as opposed to the 40K, which would need a 62.5% or greater chance for it to be +EV. I'd say its pretty thin, but my sanity would make it worth it to take the $25K bet, unless you are one of the best players on here.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

Ok

Prop bet starts today 06/24/06

40k for 40k

no limit to the amount of tables [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I have to start with 1K

Starting at nl100 first until like $1500, and moving up
when I hit around 10 buy ins for each next level.

I will update here

wish me luck

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

Good luck. I think you will need it.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

bbv would eat this thread up.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

Multitabling $200NL with only $1500 might be more than a little swingy. But good luck. Screen name and site?

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

good luck. I'll dump as much to you as posible when you get to 200nl for a % of the 40k.
start a new thread for the updates.

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

Good luck!

But do you need luck?:
Does this rich friend understand PT or something? Can't you just ask someone to transfer the rest of the $$ to you at the end of the month if you don't make it?

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

good luck man, you're gonna make a lot of money now matter how this turns out

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good luck!

But do you need luck?:
Does this rich friend understand PT or something? Can't you just ask someone to transfer the rest of the $$ to you at the end of the month if you don't make it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

How long until he asks for donations at the tables to get closer to his goal?

Re: $1000 30 Days Prop Bet
 

you are going to have to run sick hot at 600/1knl, gl