World Cup Team Draft
 

11 person 2 round snake draft for World Cup teams. Winner take all.
Draft so far.
1 - Brazil
2 - England
3 - Argentina
4 - Netherlands
5 - Mexico
6 - Germany
7 - France
8 - Spain ** Me
9 - Italy
10 – Czech Republic
11 - Portuagal
12 – USA
13 – Sweden
14 –Japan
15 - ** Me again.

a) how was my first pick?
b) Who should I pick next?

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

a) Horrendous. Czechs were available.
b) Poland

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

Thanks Freerollin'
I know nothin about World Cup, just thought I'd give it a shot. Should have posted before my first pick. I was gonna take Czech and a friend (who supposebly knows about Soccer) talked me into Spain.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

i'm not sure if freerollin is any knowledgable.

his assumptiosn were that iran had a good chance against mexico, since iran beat USA once before.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

Who the hell took Mexico ahead of Germany, Italy, France, and Spain?

(1) I think Italy was the best pick in your spot. Freerollin is way off here, because Spain is worse than Italy, but still probably as good as anyone else. Spain is also better than the Czech Republic, so I don't know what he's talking about there.

So you messed up, but not horrendously so.

(2) In order of preference: Ukraine, Croatia, Ivory Coast, Poland.

The #1 slot seems to have a huge advantage because you get Brazil.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not sure if freerollin is any knowledgable.

his assumptiosn were that iran had a good chance against mexico, since iran beat USA once before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, that was the only basis for my pick.

http://www.thethirteenthstep.com/stfu/wheel-stfu.jpg

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

1) Spain was an excellent pick. They were by far the best team available. I have them rated #4 in the tourney.

2) Croatia is your best selection. Ukraine is slightly behind them. Ivory Coast/Poland are a toss-up in distant third.

Whoever took Japan has been eating too much sushi. They're barely in the top 25 and not even one of the top two Asian teams.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

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1) Spain was an excellent pick. They were by far the best team available.

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Spain is okay. I think Italy is better though. Claiming that Spain is "by far" the best team remaining is just hyperbole; even if they are the best team left, it's not by much.

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Whoever took Japan has been eating too much sushi. They're barely in the top 25 and not even one of the top two Asian teams.

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Yeah, picking Japan is just nuts. Of course, it probably won't matter since the winner will almost certainly be one of the top nine, or #12. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1) Spain was an excellent pick. They were by far the best team available.

[/ QUOTE ]

Spain is okay. I think Italy is better though. Claiming that Spain is "by far" the best team remaining is just hyperbole; even if they are the best team left, it's not by much.


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Spain has almost twice the winning probability of Italy. They lag only Brazil, France & Germany.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

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Spain has almost twice the winning probability of Italy.

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Right now at Pinnacle:

Italy +1015
Spain +1542

So this says Spain has about 2/3 the winning probability of Italy.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Spain has almost twice the winning probability of Italy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right now at Pinnacle:

Italy +1015
Spain +1542

So this says Spain has about 2/3 the winning probability of Italy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank God for the discrepency between betting markets and reality, because office work really sucks.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

I would pick Italybefore Spain, for the second choice - Ukraine, very strong qualifiers.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Spain has almost twice the winning probability of Italy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right now at Pinnacle:

Italy +1015
Spain +1542

So this says Spain has about 2/3 the winning probability of Italy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank God for the discrepency between betting markets and reality, because office work really sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

*shrug*

It's just hard for me to believe Pinnacle's linemakers are that far off. It's not personal, but I tend to think they're a pretty good guide.

Generally, when someone on 2+2 makes a definitive statement that is hugely different than what the market says, I trust the market. Also, people will probably be skeptical of trusting your word over the market's without an extremely convincing reason. But maybe you are genuinely better than Pinnacle. Good luck either way.

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

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The #1 slot seems to have a huge advantage because you get Brazil.

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not only that..but who in gods name has an 11 person world cup team draft [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I think having a five-person draft is pushing it.
Anyway, good luck regardless

Re: World Cup Team Draft
 

isnt czech republic one of the top teams

i definately see them win this year