1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

Somewhat interesting hand I had on Doyles Room earlier.

1/2 limit.

Villain *claims* to be good, but is a pretty average player.

Hero is dealt KQs in the BB.

UTG raises, 2 callers PLUS the SB (villain) calls. I call as well.

Flop 9TJ (rainbow)

Villain checks, I check, UTG bets.

both preflop callers call, Villain raises, I reraise, UTG and both preflop callers fold, Villain caps and I call.

Heads-up to the turn.

Turn 8 (this puts two clubs on the board)

Villain bets, I raise, villain reraises, I cap. Villain calls.

River brings another T. (no flush possibility)

I'm now terrified that villain has filled up.

Villain bets...

Hero?

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

He c/r then capped after you c/3-bet. I'm having a hard time justifying hands that he may have that he'd play like this that you have beat. I think you're beat here a lot more often than you're seeing something like Q8 or J9. He could be going nuts with AA or KK, but I find that quite unlikely. I'd call here. After skimming I thought, raise. Then I read it again and looked at the board and the action, and it looks like a call is in order.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

I would raise and call a river 3-bet.

I think its still a bit early to be slowing down, as villain could have a Q high straight or trip T's, as opposed to a full house.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise and call a river 3-bet.

I think its still a bit early to be slowing down, as villain could have a Q high straight or trip T's, as opposed to a full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call. A pair of T's is not check/raising the flop and raising the turn. Q8 is a possibility if he is loose from the blinds, but it's MUCH more likely that villain filled up with 99, TT or JJ.

I'd guess that it's most likely that villain filled up, and then there's the possibilty that he is wildly overplaying an overpair. I don't think we're seeing a Q-high straight very often, and we're never seeing trip T's.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

I don't think this can be just trip Ts as he wouldn't have gone so crazy with only a pair on the flop and turn. Playing a set this strongly on the turn seems a bit silly considering how scary the board is, but it's possible. Call the river, it looks like he's hit his boat.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

*grunch*

Flop: Dont reraise SB on the flop you wanna make people stay in this pot go for action on the turn.

Turn: Well not much to discuss.

River: No stats on Villian or read. Well i would pump this as hard as i could. I think the chance of being outdrawn here is pretty slim considiring his fearless play on turn. One card straight and aggressive makes me pretty much rule out sets or 2P that includes 10s. I think you will face either KQ, or a single Q with a kicker that paired on flop.

Edit: Thought it was the other way around him capping turn, oh well, i would still raise but then call river.(r/c river is my play if that wasnt clear)

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

Your read isn't particularly helpful here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But given that that is all we have, I think I raise the river. Four to a straight on the turn and villain is still going. Does an average player do that with a set or two pair? Certainly possible, but I'll go with villain having a lower straight.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

I think what we see when he hasn't hit the boat is another KQ. Maybe you're getting paid off by QcTc here, or some other unlikely holding. I think raising and calling is throwing away 2 bets here way more often than you are pulling in another bet or two.
That's another reason for calling. Often when you are ahead villian can bet/call only costing him 1 extra bet (or b/f costing him 0 extra, which is highly unlikely here), whereas when you are behind he can charge you two bets. You've gotta be good here more than half the time to raise the river. I doubt that you are.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

raise and call if he reraises.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

I agree with the previous comment not to reraise on the flop. You've put opponents that you'll have beaten in a position that it is not profitable to cold call two bets.

The hands that have you beat are: 99, JJ, 9T and TJ.

Other possible hands: 8Qs, QK, QA, QJ, QT, AJ, I don't think he would have called with 78 if he's an average player.

I do not think you try to bluff all the way. Considering your note on him, I maybe think that you were a bit frustrated by him, or the other way around. If you two had a discussion he could be trying anything to you.

I think that you beat more hands then that have you beaten. I would raise again. He was leading the whole hand and so he has to bet. You'll win this more often then that you'll loose. My guess for his hand is something like AJ or QJ of clubs.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

GRUNCH

Call - it's either way ahead or way behind, (or split pot) let's see em not coin toss for more raises, he ain't going away if you reraise.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

Raise river. That turn is not likely getting capped if all villian has is a set. I think he has lower str8 most of the time.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
GRUNCH

Call - it's either way ahead or way behind, (or split pot) let's see em not coin toss for more raises, he ain't going away if you reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking WA/WB is pretty stupid on the river. OF COURSE you're way ahead or way behind. There are no more cards to come, so either you're winning, or you're not. I think WA/WB is one of the top 5 things that new posters get wrong (hmmm, I may have to write that post...).

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

And to add, I think I'd actually call the turn 3bet to see if your nuts are still the nuts on the river, and then cap. Your villain might have a set, in which case you're not missing a bet by calling and raising a safe river. He might be freerolling you, in which case you really don't want to put in any more bets. And if he's getting stupid with QQ, you may still get to cap the river.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

I think this is an awesome line to take here.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

Think u played well all the way and I would raise the river. Don't believe he plays turn like that without a Q.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

I think I play it the same way . . . But I get scared easy when a river card like this hits.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

Call that river. Waaaaay too many ways for you to be beat, here.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

i think i'd be worried about QT more than a flopped set. yeah, QT shouldn't cap the flop, but a set sure as hell shouldn't let the turn get capped.

he might have QJ more than QT tho.. still I prob just call the river.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

Well, thanks for all the replies. As I said, the T on the river terrifed me and it pretty much stopped me in my tracks. I only called the river bet, VIllain turns over Q8s and then proceeded to tell me how lucky I was, whatever that means.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
And to add, I think I'd actually call the turn 3bet to see if your nuts are still the nuts on the river, and then cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Sigh, another post that reminds me how much I have to learn. That's a pretty sophisticated play.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

I came up with this mainly for Hero's decision on the river. Hopefully I can get some feedback on the EV stuff (basically just if it's correct or not).

Hand range for villain:
(Considering that on the River he most likely has a straight or full house and also hands that might explain his flop and turn actions)

Full house or better hands:
88, 99, TT, T8s, T9s, TJ

Straight hands:
78s, Q7s, Q8s, Q9s, QTs, QJ, QK, AQ,

57 combos.
33 Hero beats.
20 Hero loses.
4 Split pot.

Equity:
Hero - 60.5%
Villain - 39.5%
(Stove results with hand range - Hero 61.5% Villain 38.5%)

Pot is 19BB at River.

If SB bets and Hero raises (SB calls) then EV is:
(0.6 x 21) - (0.4 x 2) = 11.8

If SB bets and Hero calls then EV is:
(0.6 x 20) - (0.4x1) = 11.6


Questions:
1. How does those numbers look?
2. What do I do if I want to figure in SB 3-betting on the River? Would I have to estimate the probability of him 3-betting and the probability of that 3-bet meaning I'm beaten?
Then work out the EV and average it from the original 'Hero raises SB calls' EV?

Example:

I estimate that SB will 3-bet 60% of the time and ALSO (now I think about it) that the above thinking for Hero raising SB's river bet is not correct because if SB just calls my raise then it means that I'm more likely to be ahead (like, a huge amount of the time). So if he calls my raise then we'll get rid of all his winning hands except for maybe the KQ hands to split leaving us with 4 draws for him and 33 losing combos meaning I win the pot 90% of the time and split 10%.
(0.9 x 21) + (0.1 x 10.5) = 18.9 + 1.05 = 19.95BB's EV 40% of the time.

I estimate that SB will 3-bet 60% of time (40% with the hands that beat me from his range and equity and 20% with a smaller straight, so when he 3-bets I call and will win 34% of those times, lose 66%:

SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3bets:
24 in pot, 2 to call.
(0.34 x 24) - (0.66 x 2) = 6.84 EV.

So to summarize, If Hero raises SB's river bet:

SB 3-bets 60% of the time and Hero's EV is 6.84 and 40% of the time (when he calls Hero's raise) Hero's EV is 19.95.
So does this mean:
(0.4 x 19.95) + (0.6 x 6.84) = 12.1BB's EV?


Question 4. Who thinks this was a massive waste of time?


Oh yeah, and to answer OP's question. If the numbers above are right I'd raise the river and call a 3-bet.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

*Grunch*

You have to at least call here, the pot is too big. He may have been raising a straight that he also has. If he has something like JQs (reasonable for his psuedo SB cold-call given your read and his behavior throughout the hand), you'll win with the better straight. He may have the full house, but, with the pot that big, I call. No point in raising (its marginal at best), since you may lose or split the pot too often.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

On your EV calculations, the math is correct given the assumptions you make. You could maybe tweak things and put some of the splits as hands he'd 3bet and some of them as hands he'd calll with, but it looks pretty good as an estimate.

Your hand ranges are questionable. I don't think 88 caps that flop (prolly not turn, either), and I don't think 87 caps that turn with the sucker end. Q7s is also a pretty exceptional cool call for villain here, even multiway.

Also, looking at this again, I'm reaaaally tempted to go ahead and cap the river. Given the lack of a preflop 3bet, we can discount JJ and TT a fair bit, and on the turn, any idiot can see that there are four consecutive cards on the board. If this guy is idiotic enough to be b/3b'ing a set on that turn, well, he's probably idiotic enough to have a lot of non-boat hands on the river, such as KJ or whatever. This is a Q or a chop almsot every time, and I want to take that Q's money. I might go with raise/call, but I think that calling here is a mistake now. I'm also now less in favor of my proposed turn line, where we wait to the river to see what happens. Since it's less likely we're against a set than I was thinking at the time, then foregoing a cap may just be missing a bet.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

Brilliant, thanks Mr Wookie.
Tweaking the numbers I don't mind as long as what I'm doing is correct and valid in the first place.
I considered sorting some of the Qx hands into a 3-bet range to go with the Full House hands but wanted to keep things simple for now. I agree with the general hand range comments.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
GRUNCH

Call - it's either way ahead or way behind, (or split pot) let's see em not coin toss for more raises, he ain't going away if you reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thinking WA/WB is pretty stupid on the river. OF COURSE you're way ahead or way behind. There are no more cards to come, so either you're winning, or you're not. I think WA/WB is one of the top 5 things that new posters get wrong (hmmm, I may have to write that post...).

[/ QUOTE ]

I look forward to it, meanwhile here is what I meant by it.

On the river we have a scare card that may put us behind. It seems at first glance given that villain has bet that there is at least a 50% chance we are down. Naturally we call even if 90% sure we are down because of the pot odds.

The argument for a raise here must rely on it being a value bet - I reckon there is close to 0% chance villain will fold to the raise on the river so if we are 51% sure we are ahead we might raise here with the hope of +ev

Here I don't think we have that but let us assume we do - it's 51% likely we are ahead so we reraise - villain will not fold if he calls fine it is positive ev but the villain knows if has the boat and in 49% of cases when he has it he will reraise us.

Now we have another choice, we are more sure that we are behind say 60% but we have to call for the pot odds - if we work out the ev for both events a raise is -ev

Naturally I could be wrong about this so I look forward to the response. I just can't see how the raise here is +ev - the call obviously is but why put in extra now if as I believe it is -ev.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

If English isn't your first language, that's fine, but it's going to take some effort on both our parts for me to divine what you're talking about here. Here's what I think you're talking about.

If you assume we're ahead 51% of the time and we raise, you then assume that he'll call the 51% of the time we win, and reraise the 49% of the time we're losing, in which case we call, and lose. If your assumptions about this are true, yes, raising is -EV in this case. What if, however, we're ahead here 67% of the time? 80% of the time? 90% of the time? What if villain is willing to 3bet us with any of the hands he's gotten this far with?

Naturally, too, if we're only winning this 40% of the time, we want to call instead of raise. But that doesn't take into account the fact that I think we're winning here a lot more than that. Put villian on a range of hands. What do you think he cool calls preflop instead of folding or raising that then caps the flop and 3bets the turn on a 4-straight board?

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

Looks like you understood my assumptions OK. I reckon it is 50/50 we are up/down so a raise is - ev. He capped the flop he pretty mch must have the trips or our hand there.

I don't think he is on a lower str8 anywhere like as often as you, he is an average player, not overly agg, not a maniac. Most likely hand is trips now FH, then the same as hero and only then a hand we beat.

My other point is that with each raise on the river here he is also defining his hand - if he reraises us what odds the lower str8? You seem to want to cap that too - if he reraises us how can that not be a 40% or less chance of being ahead?

As for English being my first language. Yep English, not American and not Pokerese.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

You "reckon" we're 50/50. OK. Why? Put villain on an explicit range of hands and prove me wrong.

1. You really think a set or two pair is 3betting that turn?

2. You really think it's impossible for him to have just a Q here? I think QJ and Q8 are pretty reasonable holdings for him.

Did you see Burning_K's math? He seems to think that we're about 2:1 to be ahead here.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You "reckon" we're 50/50. OK. Why? Put villain on an explicit range of hands and prove me wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

1. You really think a set or two pair is 3betting that turn?

2. You really think it's impossible for him to have just a Q here? I think QJ and Q8 are pretty reasonable holdings for him.

Did you see Burning_K's math? He seems to think that we're about 2:1 to be ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Yes - given that he capped the flop I can see him capping the turn against an aggressive opponent figuring that either he is ahead or he still has draws for a boat.

what I don't see is a lower str8 capping both the flop and the turn - also he didn't cap the turn hero did. He capped the flop - what hand that we beat did he have on the flop?

2)Not impossible just unlikely - less likely than a hand that beats us.

3)Yes I saw Burning K's maths. I confess to some ignorance as to how pokestove allocates probabilities to the hands given a range - is it likelihood of being dealt? If so I think that not only is the range off - I can't see anything less than an open ended str8, a made str8, 2 pair or trips capping the flop, I doubt the ignorant end caps it either.

I also think you need to rerun it for the reraise scenario, what has it got then - it certainly is not 60/40 equity.

The ev choice is call - essentially neutral - call is a no brainer here or raise - so far 8 posters here say call, 7 raise. I just can't see what proportion of the time villain having a lower str8 can justify this raise given that the boat reraises us. We either get called with some chance of winning or we get reraised and we are forced to call pretty certain we are beaten hoping we are chopping. This feller bet into someone who capped the turn - do you seriously think he is doing this with just the Q when the board paired - if he had the Q only he wants to see a cheap showdown and would expect a raise.

Anyway, sorry for being a cheeky newbie, no doubt I am wrong I just don't see how the extra $1 raise is +ev and given your greater experience maybe you could explain it - in particular how the hand we beat caps the flop, reraises the turn and still bets at us on the river once we capped the turn.

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

OK, here's one thing that I'm sure we can agree on: if he's willing to 3bet the turn with a set, he's obviously willing to 3bet the turn with any straight: 78, or any Q. A straight is better than 3 of a kind. Thus, if he's willing to go nuts with a set or two pair, he's obviously willing to go nuts with 78 or any Q. Thus, his possible hands are:

QJ, which he can have 9 different ways (3 unseen Q's, 3 unseen J's)
Q9, 9 ways
Q8, 12 ways
78, 16 ways
total: 46

versus

TT, 3 ways, one on the river
99, 3 ways
88, 3 ways
T9, 6 on the river
JT, 6 on the river
QT, 6 on the river

That's 27.

If we assume we're not chopping, we're ahead by a substantial margin. We need to raise this river. Furthermore, I think that, contrary to what you think, most players won't 3bet this turn with just a set or two pair. Seriously, would you?

Re: 1/2 limit hand. Time to slow down?
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK, here's one thing that I'm sure we can agree on: if he's willing to 3bet the turn with a set, he's obviously willing to 3bet the turn with any straight: 78, or any Q. A straight is better than 3 of a kind. Thus, if he's willing to go nuts with a set or two pair, he's obviously willing to go nuts with 78 or any Q. Thus, his possible hands are:

QJ, which he can have 9 different ways (3 unseen Q's, 3 unseen J's)
Q9, 9 ways
Q8, 12 ways
78, 16 ways
total: 46

versus

TT, 3 ways, one on the river
99, 3 ways
88, 3 ways
T9, 6 on the river
JT, 6 on the river
QT, 6 on the river

That's 27.

If we assume we're not chopping, we're ahead by a substantial margin. We need to raise this river. Furthermore, I think that, contrary to what you think, most players won't 3bet this turn with just a set or two pair. Seriously, would you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep we are just about agreed on his hand range for the flop.

Now let's look at the turn. The 8 comes and he is still willing to reraise

QJ, 9 ways Assuming he would cap open ended str8 and top pair sure
Q9, 9 ways - do I think he would cap the flop with bottom pair and open ended str8 on the flop, unlikely but hitting the str8 would get him reraising the turn
Q8, 12 ways - unimproved str8 raising the turn? If he had a made str8 he'd probably slow down when the 8 hit.I'd lose this one here
78, 16 ways - sure he'd cap the flop, wouldn't raise the turn we can discount it now
total: From 46 we have lost 28 = just 18

versus

TT, 3 ways, one on the river - yep still good
99, 3 ways - yep
88, 3 ways - yep
T9, 6 on the river - maybe the 2 pair is less likely to have capped the flop though
JT, 6 on the river - maybe
QT, 6 on the river - maybe

27 if you include all, 16 if you halve the likelihood of 2 pair reraising the flop.

Pretty much 50/50 Post the turn betting round

Now the river - it pairs - he bets out. He's not expecting a fold, he thinks he has the best hand so I don't think he bets with any lower str8 as not only is he worried at the turn cap of a higher str8 now he has to worry about the boat. If it was evens before he bet out it's probably less now he has bet the river

QJ, 9 ways - maybe
Q9, 9 ways - Maybe
Q8, 12 ways - NO
78, 16 ways - NO
total: 18 at best, probably 9 or less once weighted

versus same as the turn 27 if you include all, 16 if you halve the likelihood of 2 pair reraising the flop.

18-27 dog with no weighting, 9-16 dog with weighting.

[ QUOTE ]

Furthermore, I think that, contrary to what you think, most players won't 3bet this turn with just a set or two pair. Seriously, would you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a player I had down as Aggressive I'd do it with trips against the BB just cold calling 1 raise pre flop. I'd have a decent pair (trips)as very unlikely, KQ as just possible but I'd half expect a BB raise with that. The hand range I'd have for hero acting as the villain would include open ended str8 draw, top pair, 2 (lesser?)pair - I'd want to charge him. I'd have KQ as a scary possibility but even then I have a few outs. I would not reraise 2 pair with 4 to a str8 - I have seen it done though especially against an aggressive player.

Now if you reverse the hand with villain what do you do with trips? He bet, hero raised - do you bet initialy, I would, do you reraise, I might well (against someone I had down as too aggressive).

Naturally I am no doubt wrong on all this accept with the main point which is that the likelihood and range of villains hands changes with each betting round, doing the crunching once then saying we are way ahead does not work for me it is not 46-27 to us on the river.