USC/Texas opinions
 

USC wins by at least 20 pts. I got $1K on it at -7.

Who you got?

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

Texas...BIG

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

USC to the tune of $25, because I roll like that.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

I can't believe it's Texas +8.5 right now...

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

Yeah, because they are going to get killed, that is why I took the line early cause I knew it was going to move.

By the time the game starts it will be above 9, still a lock there too.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

This thread is awesome! I wonder how long until somebody mentions teasing one of the teams???

craig

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

MT2R, interested to hear your reasoning behind Texas...I like USC, got them at -7 -115, now I realize I should've gotten on it earlier, didn't think it would move so much so fast...might try to middle/hedge it if it gets to 10.5...for me it's hard to go against Leinart and Bush. I see it being a similar story as last year...Big 12 overrated, Pac-10 underrated, USC wins handily. While OSU was certainly a quality win, it doesn't seem like Texas played any other tough games, and Mack Brown doesn't have a good history in games of this magnitude outside the past 12 months...and Young is certainly more prone to dropping a deuce in this spot than Leinart. What am I missing?

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

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I can't believe it's Texas +8.5 right now...


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?????? Is that in Vegas? I see 7 and 7.5 everywhere.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

pinnacle popped to -7.5+110 (which buys down to -7-105). last few days of betting is all TX. I see maybe one or two places that still have +7.5-105, get it before it's gone. you don't have to like this game...you just have to like free money.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

The question is should USC be better than a touchdown favorite, and I think anyone saying they should be more just isn't being realistic. These two teams hang 50 points on most of the top 25 teams in the country. They each had a tough game against a rival, and Texas had a tough game against a legit top 10 team that likely should have won the Big 10 this year, they didn't but that doesn't degrade their team.

Texas has great special teams
USC has great Special teams
Texas has a great D
USC has a very good D
Texas has a very good offense
USC has a great offense

So what should win out? Give USC an edge for winning it last year, playing in their own back yard and having stronger coaching. Is that more than 2 scores though? possibly but I'm not excited about the line.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

USC by 30+, they go up early and Vince has to throw/shot-put the ball the entire 2nd half.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

Let's see USC hasn't lost a game in about 3 years and this is probably the best team they have had in 3 years.

Texas is overrated and has played one of the softest schedules I have ever seen.

Vince Young blows

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

I wouldn't call USC's special teams great. That's easily their biggest weak spot (unless you're just thinking of reggie's ability to return punts)

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

Texas is better. I'm putting a larger sized bet on the spread and a token on the moneyline too.

The Longhorns offense is nearly every bit as good as USC. QB, RB, WR, and OL are amazing for both teams. Texas is averaging over 500 ypg and 50 ppg. OF course, USC is at 580 ypg and is slightly better in terms of the number of different weapons.

The Texas D is better. They are only allowing 280 ypg. Yikes.

The special teams are a wash: Bush's big play potential v Texas all around small edges.

I'm seeing a 37-30 victory for the Longhorns. USC will only stop Texas if VInce Young makes turnovers. Texas will get a few stops, which will be enough.

Coaches are a wash.

Pac-10 is overrated. Big12 took more grief than it deserved. Oklahoma already won the 2nd place game over Oregon to everyone's surprise.

Winning at tOSU pwns winning at ND.

Briefly, for my first bowl recommendation to 2+2, take TEXAS +7 1/2 v USC

I'm 21-8 NCAA ytd ATS on my 2+2 recommendations
I'm also loving and recommending the following two pick
Ohio State -4 1/2 v ND
Florida State +10 v Penn St

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

Rutroh... you're better at this than I, and my last 2 games in my 10 game parlay are ND money line and SC -6.5

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

yeah, but I'm do for a correction and I commonly screw-up bowl season

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

If that is what a shot put throw looks like, well ok, I wish I could shot put the ball 60 yards. Look I'm not saying USC is not the better team, they may well be I just don't think they are 9+ points better.

Now I have a feeling that the ESPN Reggie love fest and USC hype has the potential to skew the line high so I think you'll find the better of this bet on the Longhorns, with that said I'm not putting one red cent on this game.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

ESPN loves USC too much.

Always fade ESPN, especially when Sagarin believes otherwise. (remember Yankees/Red Sox in the playoffs this year)

I think Texas +7.5 (or moneyline) is easy here.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

MT2TR,
Their coaches are in no way a wash. Look at USC's defensive record with more than a week of preparation. They are their strongest showings; PC makes incredible gameplans.

MB is notorious for not winning big games.

Also, USC's defense matches up well with Texas. The teams that were most successful against their D were short-passing, West Coast-style. Their weakness is their defensive backs. However, the defense does not give up big plays; it is the short pass that kills them. Texas, on the otherhand, relies much upon big plays from VY. He scrambles, WR's get behind the defense, big play ensues. USC will not give this up; They have very athletic LB's which are athletic. VY will be forced into turnovers, another stat in which USC excels.

Texas' defense is good. They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse. They have never seen an offense like USC.

USC is playing a home game. They have done this before. If they fall behind early, they have the perfet offense to comeback. UT falling behind early is ideal for USC.

Those are most of my reasons.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

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Those are most of my reasons.

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You forgot to add, "for laying 17 points".

craig

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

17.5, but who's counting?

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

It sure is interesting to go and look at the speculation threads from last year.

as a usc fan it is nice to see similar complaints...
sports betting thread
more sports betting

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

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Always fade ESPN, especially when Sagarin believes otherwise. (remember Yankees/Red Sox in the playoffs this year)


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ESPN has probably done a fine job in the NFL this year. I'm definitely NOT arguing that you should follow ESPN - but bringing up 1 example where they were wrong is pretty weak.

A better argument is:

USUALLY fade ESPN because this is what the general public listens to. The general public is not as smart as the bookies, and thus they tend to lose more often than not. "Sharps" in general fade the public, but a true sharp is able to objectively pick the right side regardless of how the public feels.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

I hope Texas wins. I found $32.00 in my 5 dimes account I had forgot about.. did not plan on depositing there unless I need to for a while so made this 3 Team Parlay. First 2 won.. Let go Texas =).
VIRGINIA +190
LSU +225
TEXAS +235
Risk $32.00 to win $978.36

I made a risky headge on a 2 Team Tease. Celtics last night +5 and USC -1.5 for $300.. If anyone watched the game. celtics were down 8 with like 15 seconds to go. Stole an inbounds pass scored two. Put the Kings on the free throw line they missed 1 of 2.. forget the whole story but down 7 the celtics got 2 shots at a 3 pointer with 6 seconds left and hit the buzzer to loose by 4pts.
I'll be routing for Texas. up $283 if USC covers -1.5 and up $678.36 if Texas wins outright. I just hope the game doesnt end in an OT missed extra point lol.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

“Their coaches are in no way a wash. Look at USC's defensive record with more than a week of preparation. They are their strongest showings; PC makes incredible gameplans.”

Ok look, Texas is not shallow at Defensive coordinator, look up who the guy is before you go too far into this love fest. Also note that Penn State revamped their offense this year with the help of the Texas coaching staff, again USC may have an edge but I doubt it’s huge.

”MB is notorious for not winning big games.”

This one has always gotten me about Texas, Florida State, Florida, Ten, VT ect ect. If these teams lose it’s a big game, if they win it was expected. Go figure.


“Also, USC's defense matches up well with Texas. The teams that were most successful against their D were short-passing, West Coast-style. Their weakness is their defensive backs. However, the defense does not give up big plays; it is the short pass that kills them.”

What? I had the pleasure of watching USC live this year and several times on TV. Other teams scored on big plays, Fresno was methodical down the field but that is Fresno.


“Texas, on the otherhand, relies much upon big plays from VY. He scrambles, WR's get behind the defense, big play ensues.”

Don’t forget he just has designed runs, 3 RB’s that run sub 4.4’s, one that’s as big as a DE, an All American TE, 3 better than average receivers, and a stout set of lineman. Go look at the players, this offense lost a top first round draft pick RB last year, their best WR, TE and got better. Also while your at it look up Romance Taylor’s numbers for Texas and compare his yards per touch to Bush. I think you’ll be surprised. Texas is not a bunch of scrubs and then VY, VY just happens to be driving the car, and looking pretty good doing it.

“USC will not give this up;”
Ohio State, OU, Kansas (yes Kansas) all thought pretty much the same, Texas Tech did also but nobody gives them credit for having the LB’s required to slow young.

“They have very athletic LB's which are athletic.”

Oh come on now did you really write that? USC’s best LB is now in Seattle and they have 2 Frosh and a Soph starting, they are good and fast but still young.


“VY will be forced into turnovers, another stat in which USC excels.”

The Longhorns put the ball on the ground a little too much, most of that has been the new running backs, but VY has also thrown some odd INT’s, but most of them are of the Tip variety.

”Texas' defense is good. They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse. They have never seen an offense like USC.”

An I formation offense that run’s 40% of the time, primarily runs to C and D gaps of the strong side pulling one or both guards. Most pass routes are fairly short under the safety routes designed to set up the wheel play. In short yardage they run A&B gaps 60% of the time and work the fade well? Nope never seen an offense like that, except in practice every day.

”USC is playing a home game. They have done this before. If they fall behind early, they have the perfet offense to comeback. UT falling behind early is ideal for USC.”

Tell that to Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma State(twice), TAMU, ect ect

In fact I’m not sure you can find a much more hostile environment to play a game than the Horseshoe. Texas seemed to do fine. Maybe the Swamp or at Tenn. would be worse but frankly the fans aren’t as exciting on the west coast here.

”Those are most of my reasons.”

Look if your serious about wanting to lay 20 points I'm sure some healthy money is willing to take it.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

[ QUOTE ]
It sure is interesting to go and look at the speculation threads from last year.

as a usc fan it is nice to see similar complaints...
sports betting thread
more sports betting

[/ QUOTE ]

Were is Big Al on this one?

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

MB is notorius for not winning big games

Texas 38 Michigan 37 2005 Rose Bowl
Texas 25 Ohio State 22 Sept 10
Texas 45 Oklahoma 12 Oct 8

These weren't big games?

They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse.

Last time I checked the Big-12 was 4-1 in this years bowl season and they've been the underdog in every game.

USC is playing a home game.

How many times do you play a "home game" and have half the stadium filled with your opponents fans?

The bottom line for me is this. Texas is the best team USC has played all year and they've had some close scrapes several times. I'm taking the points.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

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“Their coaches are in no way a wash. Look at USC's defensive record with more than a week of preparation. They are their strongest showings; PC makes incredible gameplans.”

Ok look, Texas is not shallow at Defensive coordinator, look up who the guy is before you go too far into this love fest. Also note that Penn State revamped their offense this year with the help of the Texas coaching staff, again USC may have an edge but I doubt it’s huge.

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this is silly. texas has good coaches, no one is saying they aren't good. whose staff would you want coaching your team in this game? PC's teams have a history of playing significantly better/their best with more than a weeks preparation. their OCs have consistently made the best 2nd half adjustments in the NCAA, especially in important games.

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”MB is notorious for not winning big games.”

This one has always gotten me about Texas, Florida State, Florida, Ten, VT ect ect. If these teams lose it’s a big game, if they win it was expected. Go figure.

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UT has one big game every year. What is MB's record in that game? Are you saying they shouldn't have been expected to actually win this year?


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“Also, USC's defense matches up well with Texas. The teams that were most successful against their D were short-passing, West Coast-style. Their weakness is their defensive backs. However, the defense does not give up big plays; it is the short pass that kills them.”

What? I had the pleasure of watching USC live this year and several times on TV. Other teams scored on big plays, Fresno was methodical down the field but that is Fresno.

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The most successful offenses vs the USC defense was that style of offense. Why don't you actually look something up: ASU 28 pts, Notre Dame 31 pts, FSU 42. That's it for the whole year. Running the ball wasn't exactly these teams's strength. You better believe the UT has to score at least 28 to win.


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“Texas, on the otherhand, relies much upon big plays from VY. He scrambles, WR's get behind the defense, big play ensues.”

Don’t forget he just has designed runs, 3 RB’s that run sub 4.4’s, one that’s as big as a DE, an All American TE, 3 better than average receivers, and a stout set of lineman. Go look at the players, this offense lost a top first round draft pick RB last year, their best WR, TE and got better. Also while your at it look up Romance Taylor’s numbers for Texas and compare his yards per touch to Bush. I think you’ll be surprised. Texas is not a bunch of scrubs and then VY, VY just happens to be driving the car, and looking pretty good doing it.

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I'm not calling these players scrubs. Where did I even imply this? USC matches up well with this offense. Their front seven is strong and athletic. Texas can't rely on being the better athletes here. Forcing a team like UT into 12-17 play drives is ideal for USC.

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“USC will not give this up;”
Ohio State, OU, Kansas (yes Kansas) all thought pretty much the same, Texas Tech did also but nobody gives them credit for having the LB’s required to slow young.

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Obviously UT will have some big plays. They will also put together some long drives. I'm not saying their offense is going to get shutdown. I'm expecting USC to score a lot of points, I don't think UT will be able to go drive for drive with them. A three-and-out here, a TO here, USC can jump to a lead really easy. Of course UT has the chance to do this as well, I just think USC has a greater chance of this occuring.
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“They have very athletic LB's which are athletic.”

Oh come on now did you really write that? USC’s best LB is now in Seattle and they have 2 Frosh and a Soph starting, they are good and fast but still young.

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Having fast, athletic LBs is the best defense against VY, thats all.


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“VY will be forced into turnovers, another stat in which USC excels.”

The Longhorns put the ball on the ground a little too much, most of that has been the new running backs, but VY has also thrown some odd INT’s, but most of them are of the Tip variety.

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And USC seems to force a lot of these quirky TO's. I can't find their exact spot, but I believe they are extremely high in the giveaway:takeaway ratio. A few TO's either way could swing this game quite a bit. I'm simply stating that it is more likely that USC benefits from this.

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”Texas' defense is good. They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse. They have never seen an offense like USC.”

An I formation offense that run’s 40% of the time, primarily runs to C and D gaps of the strong side pulling one or both guards. Most pass routes are fairly short under the safety routes designed to set up the wheel play. In short yardage they run A&B gaps 60% of the time and work the fade well? Nope never seen an offense like that, except in practice every day.

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Do I have to spell it out? USC is much, much better than any offense they have played all year.

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”USC is playing a home game. They have done this before. If they fall behind early, they have the perfet offense to comeback. UT falling behind early is ideal for USC.”

Tell that to Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma State(twice), TAMU, ect ect

In fact I’m not sure you can find a much more hostile environment to play a game than the Horseshoe. Texas seemed to do fine. Maybe the Swamp or at Tenn. would be worse but frankly the fans aren’t as exciting on the west coast here.

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Michigan? They didn't play Michigan. tOSU- 22pts, Okie St- 28pts, TAMU- 29 pts... USC's offense is significantly better than all of those teams'. Their big play potential is probably greater than all those teams' combined. Plus, Reggies is returning kicks.

A home game is an advantage, as slight as you want to believe it to be. USC players get to go home and relax after practice and media. UT players, not so much.

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”Those are most of my reasons.”

Look if your serious about wanting to lay 20 points I'm sure some healthy money is willing to take it.

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I don't WANT to lay 20 points. I'm not mentaly impaired. I ran my mouth about how good I thought USC was and VY called me out on it (during the 1st or 2nd game of the season. i said something like USC is 21 points better than every other team in the nation. we bet that on them vs any bowl opponent for 17.5). I put my money where my mouth was. I know it's a horrible bet, but I'm not gonna run my mouth and then not put my money up when someone disagrees.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

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MB is notorius for not winning big games

Texas 38 Michigan 37 2005 Rose Bowl
Texas 25 Ohio State 22 Sept 10
Texas 45 Oklahoma 12 Oct 8

These weren't big games?

They also played in the Big-12, not an offensive powerhouse.

Last time I checked the Big-12 was 4-1 in this years bowl season and they've been the underdog in every game.

USC is playing a home game.

How many times do you play a "home game" and have half the stadium filled with your opponents fans?

The bottom line for me is this. Texas is the best team USC has played all year and they've had some close scrapes several times. I'm taking the points.

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OU is THE game for UT year in and year out. I think it is fair to say when the teams have been very close in skill level (ending the year ranked 4,5 and 8,9) UT has lost 35-24, 12-0. The other two years the team which seemed to have a significant advantage won.

Yes last year #4UT beat #12UM (38-37). However the year before a #5UT lost to a #12WSU(20-28. Year before #9UT beat #25 LSU (35-20). That's a 3-4 record in big games with wins as #2 vs an unranked, #4 vs #12, and #9 vs #25.

On the other hand let's look at PC. 3-0 in bowls as #1 vs #3 (51-19), #1/2 vs #4 (28-14), and #5 vs #3 (38-17). USC has 1 loss in three years, 3 losses in 4 years by a total of 13 points.

What do you find more impressive? Who do you want coaching?

The Big 12 has performed better than expected. That doesn't change the fact Big-12 doesn't have a lot of explosive offenses.

UT does have a good defense, I'm in not saying they don't. The USC offense, however, is much better than anything UT faced in the Big-12.

A home game is an advantage. USC knows the field, it will be how they like it (no 3" of grass like at ND), they will be used to LA, their home game rituals, etc. There are a ton of tiny aspects that are advantageous to USC, no matter how you want to slice it.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

After weighing the arguments, I concede an advantage to USC coaching.

Home field I do not concede

LA fans are wussy
Texas fans are not

Texas played in that same Rose Bowl last year and left with good feelings and are used to getting ready for the game
Though it wasn't the title game, it was very important for the Longhorns

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

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I don't WANT to lay 20 points. I'm not mentaly impaired. I ran my mouth about how good I thought USC was and VY called me out on it (during the 1st or 2nd game of the season. i said something like USC is 21 points better than every other team in the nation. we bet that on them vs any bowl opponent for 17.5). I put my money where my mouth was. I know it's a horrible bet, but I'm not gonna run my mouth and then not put my money up when someone disagrees.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are ok with offering me two dimes laying 17.5?

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

Slavic,

I meant to reply to your thread and not edit it. Sorry about that. Below is what I had posted:

There is obviously a difference of him doing it then and doing it now. It would be no different than him offering your bet above to you if USC is up by 20 with 1 minute left and the ball.

craig

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

wtf are you talking about slavic? do i think USC wins the game handily- yes? does that mean that i should take bad bets? this occurred at the beginning of season. i knew there was a huge chance that i was taking a bad bet.

why not intelligently respond with how you disagree rather than post inane stuff? i didn't bring up a spread in this thread, craig and VY were making fun of the bet. i listed my reasons why i would take USC at the currently offered spreads.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

[ QUOTE ]
Home field I do not concede

LA fans are wussy
Texas fans are not

Texas played in that same Rose Bowl last year and left with good feelings and are used to getting ready for the game
Though it wasn't the title game, it was very important for the Longhorns

[/ QUOTE ]

This does not just have to do with fans. It has to do with how one prepares for a game, where they practice, where they sleep, etc. There is a ton going on for these players this week.

USC, fortunately, gets to go through all the hype, the media, the preparation, the practices at home, in their own backyard. They are going through the motions that are familiar to them, 6 times this year and 6 the year before. As good as these athletes are, they are still college athletes, not quite professionals. If you don't think this is at least a .5-1pt advantage for USC I honestly think you're deluding yourself.

edited to add: they have not lost at home in 4 years btw.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

Some more information that I find interesting/relevant:
UT vs ranked opponents this year:

Texas vs OU (45-12)
UT had scoring drives of 1 play for 80 yds, 2 plays for 70 yds, and 1 play for 80 yds (fumble recovery).

UT vs tOSU (25-22)
UT had a scoring drive of 7 plays 64 yds (64 yard pass), a good 10 play drive that was assisted by a PI penalty, and another good 7 play drive that was assited by a PI penalty.

UT vs TexTech (52-17)
UT had a 3 play 8 yd TD, a 2 play 23 yd TD, and a 2 play 26 yd TD drive. Their long drives included a nice 7 play 80 yd, a 4 play 88 yd (including a 48 yd pass), a 3 play 80 yd (75 yd pass), and a nice 11 play 66 yd.

UT vs CU (42-17)
UT had a very nice 16 play 90 yd drive, a 6 play 66 yd (passes of 18, 25 and a VY run of 25), a 4 play 77 yd (63 yd pass), an 8 play 37 yd, a 5 play 72 yd (35 yd TD pass), and a 9 play 49 yd (assisted by a 3rd down PI penalty).

USC's defense vs ranked opponenents (or poor deffensive games):

USC vs ORE (45-13)
Gave up a 5 play 62 (two passes over 35 yds) and two FGs (drives of 6 plays for 20 yds and 7 plays for 11 yds)

USC vs ASU (38-28)
Gave up a PR for a TD, an 8 play 63 yd (largest gain 23 yds), a 4 play 55 yd (25 yd pass), and a 10 play 70 yd (largest gain 24 yds).

USC vs ND (34-31)
One 53yd punt return for TD, 13 plays 83 yds, 10 plays 72 yds, and 8 plays 87 yds. Only 3 offensive plays for ND went for over 20 yds, the most being a 25 yd pass.

USC vs FSU, the game everyone likes to talk about (50-42)
FSU had TD drives of 15 and 18 yds in the 4th quarter. Their other scoring drives included 9 plays for 81 yds, 12 plays for 65 yds, 8 for 55yds, and 6 for 65yds. Their biggest offensive play, 21 yard pass.

Basically, USC does not give up big plays on defense. As I stated before, the short pass is what kills them. Can UT do this? A lot of UT's high scoring comes from TO's and big plays. Can UT rely on VY to drive them down teh field consistently without mistakes? Take this for whatever you think its worth.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

The game will come down to VY's mistakes or lack of mistakes. If he has a 2 TO game, it won't be close. If he can keep from making mistakes, it will be close.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

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The game will come down to VY's mistakes or lack of mistakes. If he has a 2 TO game, it won't be close. If he can keep from making mistakes, it will be close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this sentiment, more or less. I think a 3 and out for UT is almost as bad as well. And, as this thread has made apparent, I think the chances that his TOs are 2 or more are fairly high.

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

Betting on Texas = throwing your money away

Betting on USC = smart and informed.

Usc has not lost a game in about 3 years.

This is the equivalent of betting against the Patriots.

Are you willing to do that?

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

LOL

Re: USC/Texas opinions
 

This Texas v. USC game should have a close to even spread.

The texas+7.5 is a smart bet as I believe the line should be close to even.

Texas will probably win the game outright. USC has the offensive stars but the texas offense should have a bigger edge over the USC defense than the USC offense does over the texas defense.

By the way Reggie Bush is certianly a great player but he is now very overrated and he will not suceed to the great acclaim in this title game or in the NFL.