Preakness Picks
 

I'm off to the track. So I'll start off with my picks.

Y-T-D: Crushed in the Derby

Looking for my Preakness comeback:

2 units on Like Now in a W/S Love that speed and that rail position.
2 units on SweetNorthernSaint to win, Best value out of the three big ones.

My exotics are a combination of Barbaro & Brother Derek with a bunch of other contenders and my Sluss buys dinner crazyass superfecta: 1753

My best longshot in the early races is Our Peak in the Sir Barton. That horse has already made me some cash this year and I love it.

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I need to do some kind of research, but from what I can tell, the % in the last 10 years or so of horses coming out of the Derby and running in the money at the Preakness are very high... Therefore, I am going to be doing some rather large straight trifectas with Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Sweetnorthernsaint... I will toss a savor ticket in there with those 3, over those 3, over all...just in case some bomber picks up the pieces for show... I will get back to everyone if I get the specifics on horses in the money at the Preakness following a run for the roses...

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In the last 10 years, only 1 horse(Red Bullet-2000) has won the Preakness without being in the Derby. A wise handicapper even made a statement to me once: "If the fresh horses in the Preakness were any good, they would have been entered in the Derby..."

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I'm risking a total of $150 on this race. I was terrible in the Derby, putting lots of exposure on AP Warrior, so take this with a grain of salt. Here goes:

$53 exacta box ($106 total bet) on Barbaro and Bro Derek

$2 trifecta on Barb(1), Bernardini(2), and Derek(3)

$2 trifecta on Barb(1), Derek(2), and Bernardini(3)

$5 trifecta on Barb(1), Derek(2), and Diabolical(3)

$25 on Diabolical to show

$10 exacta/perfecta on Barbaro(1), and Diabolical(2)


Noticeably absent in all this is Sweetnorthernsaint. I think he's the trendy pick, and he didn't really impress me in the Derby. He'll get more and more expensive as the day goes on, as he'll be a local betting favorite.

If Bro Derek and Barbaro come in 1st and 2nd, and/or Diabolical (a longshot but good value in my opinion) finishes in the top 3, my day is well more than paid for, and maybe I'll get lucky on one of those trifectas.

Horse betting is pure entertainment value for me. I'm fine losing everything I risk, so any winning is pure gravy. Anyone who bets horse racing with money that they can't really afford to lose, or who thinks horse betting is anything other than badly -EV is either stupid or in serious denial. That said, it's much more fun to watch the race if you have some action on it.

Good luck to all and enjoy the race.

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I pick Barbaro to drown them.
No bets (no value).

bc

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[ QUOTE ]
I pick Barbaro to drown them.
No bets (no value).
bc

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YTD: Like Now in Gotham, Lawyer Ron in Arkansas Derby, SNS across the board in Illinois.
KD - Barbaro to win, Barb/BlueCat exacta box [among others], Steppenwolfer to show. A nice day.

Barbaro heavy to win [online at +105, +100 and down to -117].
Like Now to show and in all exotics.
BroDerek/Barbaro and SNS/Barbaro exacta boxes.
Barbaro/Like Now and Barbaro/Bernardini exacta small.
Trifecta: Barbaro/BroDerek/SNS + LN small.
Super: Barbaro/ BroD + SNS box/ LN + Bern tiny.

Except for Barbaro to win, waiting until I see the horses to place the other bets.

Naj

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I pick Barbaro to drown them.
No bets (no value).
bc

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YTD: Like Now in Gotham, Lawyer Ron in Arkansas Derby, SNS across the board in Illinois.
KD - Barbaro to win, Barb/BlueCat exacta box [among others], Steppenwolfer to show. A nice day.

Barbaro heavy to win [online at +105, +100 and down to -117].
Like Now to show and in all exotics.
BroDerek/Barbaro and SNS/Barbaro exacta boxes.
Barbaro/Like Now and Barbaro/Bernardini exacta small.
Trifecta: Barbaro/BroDerek/SNS + LN small.
Super: Barbaro/ BroD + SNS box/ LN + Bern tiny.

Except for Barbaro to win, waiting until I see the horses to place the other bets.

Naj

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HOLY CRAP BARBARO breaks through the gate

Re: Preakness Picks
 

BARBARO HURT HOLY CRAP TWICE

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I had Barbaro to NOT win the Triple Crown (must go Preakness). I hope this bet pays off still. He started the race, but didn't finish it, and I don't want the sportsbooks to not pay this off.

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Jesus H. All week long I was going to be on Bernardini, and at 12-1 those odds were higher than I thought he'd get; and then at the last minute I decided he could not win and stayed away. God dammit.

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Aside from the betting aspect of the sport, this was borderline tragic... I am a fan of horse racing, and seeing incidents like this still make me nautious to this day...

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At least the vet made it sound like the horse would not have to be euthanized, a la Ruffian. I presume we have advanced from the days where a horse had to be put down if it broke a leg, but I don't know that and hope that's not the case.

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The slo-mo replay was brutal watching his hoof flop around like that. Second worst thing to see at a track (only thing worse is to see them go head over and die right there).

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Hate to win like that, but at least I didn't have to sweat the "no" bet. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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I hate seeing animals hurt in anyway so this was just sickening for me to watch. I just hope Barbaro is okay. It definitely puts a pall on the race.

Even with Barabaro out I still almost had the trifecta with my box of Bernardini, SNS, Bro Derek, & Barbaro unfortunately Bro Derek couldn't pull it out for me and got fourth. Just like in the Derby where I had Barbaro, Steppenw, Bro Derek, & SNS.

At least I did have Bernardini to win place or show so got some money there.

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I presume we have advanced from the days where a horse's stud fees were peanuts, and even a champion was hardly worth saving.

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god i wish i hadn't even watched that.

sick [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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I had Barbaro to NOT win the Triple Crown (must go Preakness). I hope this bet pays off still. He started the race, but didn't finish it, and I don't want the sportsbooks to not pay this off.

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You have action. Congratulations. I'm very happy for you. I hope that more people and animals that you bet against will die (after the event starts, of course).

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I had Barbaro to NOT win the Triple Crown (must go Preakness). I hope this bet pays off still. He started the race, but didn't finish it, and I don't want the sportsbooks to not pay this off.

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You have action. Congratulations. I'm very happy for you. I hope that more people and animals that you bet against will die (after the event starts, of course).

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Oh come on man, that's a bit harsh. He didn't say anything bad.

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So tragic! All my *fectas out the window, but it's more horrible to see a horse get hurt. I own a couple of my own (nags, not racing) and hate to see that sort of thing happen. It didn't look bad enough to put him down, but will he race again or have a life of leisure sex in the pasture? It would have been so good for horse racing to have a Triple Crown winner [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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What was the finish order? I just got home and nothing on the sites has it, just the winner.

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The slo-mo replay was brutal watching his hoof flop around like that. Second worst thing to see at a track (only thing worse is to see them go head over and die right there).

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I live in Kentucky and it was awful when the local news kept showing clips of Up an Octave going down and over his jockey John Velazquez at Keeneland. So horrifying to watch.


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What was the finish order? I just got home and nothing on the sites has it, just the winner.

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Bernardini
Sweetnorthernsaint
Hemingway's Key
Brother Derek

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ty

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sweetnorthernsaint took 2nd and i think Like Now took 3rd

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This just in. My local news said Xrays have been done and it's a break below and above the ankle. A critical injury that will require major surgery. Tests are still being done to see if it effects the blood supply to decide if the injury is life threatening.

Thoroughbred race horses are beautiful and fast but they can be so fragile.

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My old man hit a 1$ trifecta, 1927$ at farimount park in illinois. bastard.

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[ QUOTE ]
This just in. My local news said Xrays have been done and it's a break below and above the ankle. A critical injury that will require major surgery. Tests are still being done to see if it effects the blood supply to decide if the injury is life threatening.

Thoroughbred race horses are beautiful and fast but they can be so fragile.

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Several comments need some further info. About greater effort being expended because the horses are more valuable now, that is false. To be sure, there are some technical advances since Ruffian (which was about 30 yrs ago.)

First of all, the major problem is the blood supply of the hoof and foot. If that is compromised to the point that adequate blood supply doesn't get to the foot, there is really nothing that can be done short of euthanasia. And even at surgery they may not have the complete answer to this. It may not be clear until several days later.

Another problem, and the one that lead to Ruffian's death, was horses act in unpredictable ways when coming out of anesthesia. Actually on her first surgery, Ruffian had quite a satisfactory repair of her injury, as I understand it, but she went kind of berserk as she awakened, thrashing about and tearing out most of what had been done. A second attempt at surgery was much more complicated, and it didn't work out and she was euthanized.

The other thing that can happen is the horse may founder in several ways when immobilized, and if that happens, it's curtains.

I would say it is touch and go for this colt, and it may be several days before we could be certain he was out of the woods. I can not imagine him ever running in a race again.

As sad as most are on this forum, believe me when I tell you that the people inside racing are sadder. Most of them love horses and lead pretty tough lives in exchange for the pleasure of being around horses.

Have you ever seen a classier guy than Michael Matz?

So sad...

bill c

Re: Preakness Picks
 

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I presume we have advanced from the days where a horse's stud fees were peanuts, and even a champion was hardly worth saving.

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You're sick.

Re: Preakness Picks
 

Bill C -

Nice post, it was very informative for horse racing noobs like myself. I have always heard about putting horses down after a big injury, but was never clear on why that path was taken.

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I posted my picks on here, yet after working midnights and not waking up in time to go to the nearest OTB 15 minutes away, I decided to sit down and enjoy the race as a fan of the game, and not as a gambler. Words do not begin to describe the painful silence in my house where my father and I watched the Preakness. We make it a yearly tradition to go to Saratoga together, and really enjoy the sport. I couldn't begin to tell you who was more upset about Barbaro potentially losing his life today. The connections are the best group of guys in the biz, and my heart goes out to them.

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Just got into horseracing this year. I watched barbaro before the race and thought "man this horse is special, He just looks like a champion." A few minutes later Im almost in tears when he cant even stand on his leg. This was a sad day. I dont think a sporting event ever made me feel like this.

Re: Preakness Picks
 

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First of all, the major problem is the blood supply of the hoof and foot. If that is compromised to the point that adequate blood supply doesn't get to the foot, there is really nothing that can be done short of euthanasia.

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I don't understand why a horse has to be euthanized in that case. Can't they just amputate the leg? I've seen several three-legged dogs that got around just fine.

Re: Preakness Picks
 

from nytimes:

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He said horses had two small arteries in their legs, and the concern was that blood flow to the lower limb might be impeded.

"That's what you worry about as life-threatening," Bramlage said. "Secondly, if this kind of injury happened to us, we'd be put up in bed for six weeks. But you can't do that for a horse."

A horse's physiology and temperament are not designed for long stretches of inactivity. A horse with a severely injured leg will try to put weight on it; if a horse is forced to recline, its internal organs may not react properly.


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