Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero wants to die.


Are we absolutely 100% certain that villain holds K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here, probably with another king? Can we sleep soundly after folding? Can we call without the only reason being that you can hit "show cards" in a pathetic kind of way whilst he takes down the pot?

Does anyone really raise without the nuts here?

Well a player who had read my hand perfectly might have a crack at the pot with two red queens or kings, but have you ever seen that happen at $2/$4?

I folded, proud of my discipline at first, but it's really eating me now... Am I actually ahead 1 time in 14?

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

std fold

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

I'm not 93% sure, so I call. This is definitely a card to bluff against an opponent who's prone to folding.

Another reason is specifically so you CAN sleep soundly, should you fold and he flip over KcTh.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

-grunch-

I wouldnt fold here. When he raises, you are getting almost 15-1 to call, are you over 95% sure he has a flush? i think you will snap off a bluff or a donked 2 pair/set enough times to make a profitable call here.

reads would be nice, but it would take a pretty strong read to make me fold here, actually - even then i probably wouldnt. with a set of aces, i cant imagine a scenario where i would fold for one more bet in a 15 bet pot.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

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std fold

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Isn't this the whole point of the Clarkmeister?

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

Here's a question, and maybe I am way out of line.

What does a bet on this river do for us?

- No one is calling with a hand we beat.
- Few are folding a hand that beats us. Maybe a straight but those are very unlikely given the PF action
- The hands we do fold on this river we would much rather they try and bluff at it.

Asside from folding the unlikely straight, or a really low [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (also unlikely given PF). I don't see the value in betting, and I feel much beter calling if it's more likely to be a bluff. But feel free to point out the holes in my logic here.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

I'm probably missing something here but why not check/call the river in this case? It costs the same as bet/fold and you get your shot at the pot. My thinking is that I want to get that set to showdown, but with the fourth spade, I want to do it cheaply.

All that being said, my post is probably reeking from my lack of experience.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

I like check/call on teh river. In live games I would consider check/folding against passive weenies.

Change the flop to X [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and it get's interesting. IF we cannnot bet/fold, is bet/call still better than check/call?

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

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I'm probably missing something here but why not check/call the river in this case? It costs the same as bet/fold and you get your shot at the pot. My thinking is that I want to get that set to showdown, but with the fourth spade, I want to do it cheaply.

All that being said, my post is probably reeking from my lack of experience.

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I've been away for awhile, but if I remember correctly the idea of the clarkmeister is, when the fourth suit drops and you dont have it, you should bet out of position. The logic being that any non flush hand will fold, giving you the pot, and any made flush will raise, letting you fold with a clear conscience.

That being said, i dont like this line here.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

So anytime I smell a clarmeister unfolding before my eyes I should raise? Is the OOP bettor going to have a flush card enough to call?

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

Here's an exchange between Clark and myself from a while ago:

Me quoting someone else:

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You're heads-up, out of position on the river. The river card puts four to a flush on the board, but you don't have the flush. According to the Clarkmeister Theorem, you should bet and fold to a raise.

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I don't think that's part of it. Everyone keeps saying it, but nobody has ever been able to show me where Clark says that.

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Clark's response:

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nobody has ever been able to show me where clark says that.

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I never did.

If you get raised, it's generally a good idea to fold, but far from always. Sometimes, one just needs to play some poker. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

I check/call the river. I don't fold it.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

I fold. Villain would have to be some kind of bluff-happy maniac for me to ever call him down here.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

why did you bet the river

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

Ugh, that river sucks.
Given the action pre-flop and on the flop, we could probably narrow villan's range down to QQ, KK, and maybe JJ (which maybe a bit narrow).

If we use that range, 9 combos have a spade, 9 don't (if I figured it right).

I think that's enough to make me c/c the river.
I want to get to SD with this hand cheaply.
If we bet, we're just going to get raised by a better hand and a worse hand will either fold or bluff-raise. Getting bluff raised is unlikely, but I'd hate to bet and give villan a chance to chase us out and then show something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. That would put me on tilt for like, a month. Plus, check-calling gives villan a chance to bet a worse hand.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

I don't really play cash games much. Play some MTT's and mostly just grind the STT's, but every once in a while I'll sit at a cash table and this river just seems like a really obvious check/call to me.

Edit: Also as I said I don't play many cash games so I don't really look at the cash game forums here. But is 2/4 seriously considered micro? I thought micro was like things under a dollar.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

Bet fold. Call if like paying to see a spade.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

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why did you bet the river

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"Clarkmeister Theorem."

By betting, we force Villain to fold (almost always) any non-flush hands that still beat us (and, in rare but significant cases, a baby flush). And if he has a decent flush, he raises, allowing us to fold with a clean conscience.

It probably isn't the best application here, since the only non-flush hand that still beats us is a straight, and Villain will probably call a straight for one bet. But check/calling the fourth flush card from OOP allows him to value-bet all the hands that crush us, check behind all the hands that we beat and — most importantly — check behind all the hands that beat us but would have folded if we bet.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

I don't think he has to have K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] but I give him credit for either K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], JJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or QQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I can't imagine him bluff raising you since you haven't shown anything but strength.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

Except there really are no hands that villian would check behind that beat us, he capped pf there is no way he has qj here

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

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Except there really are no hands that villian would check behind that beat us, he capped pf there is no way he has qj here

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Right...our fear is that he will check behind hands that we beat. But there are lots of hands that he'd call with but not bet that we beat. That's why it's a bet/play-poker-but-probably-fold river.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

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Except there really are no hands that villian would check behind that beat us, he capped pf there is no way he has qj here

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Right...our fear is that he will check behind hands that we beat. But there are lots of hands that he'd call with but not bet that we beat. That's why it's a bet/play-poker-but-probably-fold river.

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This is a value-bet? Huh? Clarkmeister is a bluff. Unless this guy is an uberfish who will call with 2nd pair and no spade, I don't see the value.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

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Except there really are no hands that villian would check behind that beat us, he capped pf there is no way he has qj here

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Right...our fear is that he will check behind hands that we beat. But there are lots of hands that he'd call with but not bet that we beat. That's why it's a bet/play-poker-but-probably-fold river.

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This is a value-bet? Huh? Clarkmeister is a bluff. Unless this guy is an uberfish who will call with 2nd pair and no spade, I don't see the value.

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clarkmeister bets are often value bets.

Re: Folding AA, top set vs obvious flush
 

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clarkmeister bets are often value bets.

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I think Clark called it a "value-bluff".