10/20 A Bit Deep
 

Villian is a typical multitable tag 22/9, he probably views me as the same. This is the 2nd or 3rd time he has 3 bet me out of the blinds. He always pots flop after raising preflop.
No comments needed on the questionable preflop call-I was fairly certain that the other player (loose preflop) would call as well plus I had position and were a little deep.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($5798.41)</font>
MP2 ($2033.50)
MP3 ($3558)
CO ($430)
Button ($1980)
SB ($3260.91)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($3284.30)</font>
UTG ($622)
UTG+1 ($1990)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $70</font>, MP2 calls $70, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $235</font>, Hero calls $185, MP2 calls $185.

Flop: ($775) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $772</font>,

Hero:
1)folds
2)calls
3)minibet
4)push

Part 2: What hand range can villian call a raise/push with?

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

this has to be the easiest push ever...

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

From the way it plays out, its almost certain he has an overpair.

So lets look at it from a mathematical view. Lets assume that any flush/two pair/trips will win this pot. You have a total of 15 outs. So you have approximately a 30% chance of making your hand on the next card, but only have 2 to 1 odds unless the other guy calls.

So it looks like a fold to me, unless you want to push him off the hand, which doesn't look so good here.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
From the way it plays out, its almost certain he has an overpair.

So lets look at it from a mathematical view. Lets assume that any flush/two pair/trips will win this pot. You have a total of 15 outs. So you have approximately a 30% chance of making your hand on the next card, but only have 2 to 1 odds unless the other guy calls.

So it looks like a fold to me, unless you want to push him off the hand, which doesn't look so good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

holy sh!t

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
From the way it plays out, its almost certain he has an overpair.

So lets look at it from a mathematical view. Lets assume that any flush/two pair/trips will win this pot. You have a total of 15 outs. So you have approximately a 30% chance of making your hand on the next card, but only have 2 to 1 odds unless the other guy calls.

So it looks like a fold to me, unless you want to push him off the hand, which doesn't look so good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play SSNL, but even I know 15 outs is a 0.85:1 shot (~54% to win). Push.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
From the way it plays out, its almost certain he has an overpair.

So lets look at it from a mathematical view. Lets assume that any flush/two pair/trips will win this pot. You have a total of 15 outs. So you have approximately a 30% chance of making your hand on the next card, but only have 2 to 1 odds unless the other guy calls.

So it looks like a fold to me, unless you want to push him off the hand, which doesn't look so good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

gimmick account?

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

Why are you calling if your not pushing a flop like this?

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

I push here quick. You're about even money to overpair, slight dog if he has heart, slight fav if not.

On turn, things get much trickier for you. Also, a push here is just a pot sized raise. You're betting 3k to win 6500 pot in which you have about 3250 equity. Add to that your f/e, i think raise is only option.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

i'd usually push here
an alternative is to make it like 1800 or something, cuz that looks scarier
also in that case you have position so you could check behind if you don't improve on the turn minimizing losses

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

I put fold/call as an option but I think folding is bad and calling is really bad.

I intended to hear thoughts on either pushing
or the dreaded miniraise

If you are villian what hands can/should you call with
either raise

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

Shoves becuase he's a favorite over aces, he's got fold equity, and if villian pots every flop he could still have AK or something.

Also see: plays this hand how he would play a set, because thats what you have to represent to have any chance of him laying down JJ to AA.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

PUSH and in the chat say
AA?

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

I was thinking a smaller raise is better than pushing, but after his flop bet I think pushing is best. If you raise to like 1800, what will you do when he just calls and you miss the turn? A call seems bad too, so it looks like pushing is the only thing that makes sense.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

I think this is simply a push vs raise question, and a raise is awkward since that's about his whole stack anyway. Just push. If he had 200BB, I'd lean towards raising. nh anyway.

Kirk

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

I probably push this, as well as AA and 22-66 and any other draw. You can calculate what Villain should call with if you want.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

Is anyone concerned with what MP2 might have? Push!

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

I agree that a push here is good. i know this is off topic, but dare i say it... fold pre?

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that a push here is good. i know this is off topic, but dare i say it... fold pre?

[/ QUOTE ]

this would be silly.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

With 100 BB stacks I'm dumping it preflop.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

But suited connectors can make straights and flushes.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

PPPPPPPPPPUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHH HHH

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

We don't want to take this one down right away, because we are never much ahead nor much behind. Pushing seems like the only option in my mind.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

Preflop call is fine. Only $150 more and you have position on him. I push this flop.

Results
 

Sometimes I try to out think myself and decided to just miniraise to rep strength (I do push sets as well as big draws but I don't think villian was aware) I knew I blew it

Villian thinks and pushes and I miss
Villian shows two 10's. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I was 4 tabling at the time and didn't look at his notes until after the hand [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. "overplays big pairs JJ,QQ"

Is this still a push against this villian?

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]

Is this still a push against this villian?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you were the favorite.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
But suited connectors can make straights and flushes.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
PUSH and in the chat say
AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

why?
the chat part, not the push part

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

is this hand even difficult? this should be about as basic as it gets.. autocall pf, autopush over the flop bet. easy game. holla

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
this has to be the easiest push ever...

[/ QUOTE ]

dam I give good advice

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

Do some homework dude... you got the best hand
push it

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PUSH and in the chat say
AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

why?
the chat part, not the push part

[/ QUOTE ]

18th level thinking baby:

you ask AA, he thinks you have KK so he wants to fold QQ-TT, he realizes this and knows he has to call with QQ-TT or get psychologically owned, but then he realizes that you are aware of this too and obviously have AA wanting him to call with KK-TT. so he will fold KK.

now my head hurts

ALSO I am curious as to the answer to "part 2" which I haven't seen discussed much yet

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

Hmm well it looks like JJ and up you feel lucky...LET's GAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL. YOU ARE A FAV here. Minbet is retarded cause he pushes. Don't call cause blank means you don't see the river. I want my money in as a favorite. The thing is that the Villan totally neglects a hand like the one you are playing. Thus he figures he is going to take the pot down right now. GL.

Re: Results
 

Yes.

Re: Results
 

Geez you are a damn favorite. You have 9+5 outs and backdoor straight draw. Like 60% to hit. Get your damn money in there.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
ALSO I am curious as to the answer to "part 2" which I haven't seen discussed much yet

[/ QUOTE ]

Well. villian is getting about 2:1 on the call, so he really doesn't need too good a hand if hero is pushing all his strong draws. Also, it depends on how loose villian thinks hero is, so what his range will be going into the flop.

If hero is going to call with a lot of suited connectors, 1-gappers, and suited broadways, AND push with any flush draw here, then villian should probably call with most overpairs, since he only needs to win about 33%, and there would be a lot of flush draw combos.

If hero's only pushing monster draws and sets though, then even AA-KK are probably folds, since there aren't THAT many monster draw combo's, and you're still a slight dog to them, or a huge dog to sets. but most of the time hero won't be that tight.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Geez you are a damn favorite. You have 9+5 outs and backdoor straight draw. Like 60% to hit. Get your damn money in there.

[/ QUOTE ]
you probably should work on your math a little.

Re: 10/20 A Bit Deep
 

If BB is TAG like you said, then I'm assuming this re-raise is almost never/never 66, 44, or 22, correct? But much more likely something like 99 - AA or AK/AK suited? As played, with $772 already in the pot, and you having pretty much even EV against his range (see below), you def want to get all the money in now or win it uncontested (too bad he will prob not lay down his overpair according to your notes here though [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ). As to how to get all your money in here, I would think by doing the same thing that you would do with a set/top 2 type hand (even though this particular flop will prob never look like top 2). So if you've been minraising those types of hands, then you should probably min-raise his flop bet. But if you 3 or 4 bet those types of hands then you should do the same here (with the thinking that he might let go of the overpair here thinking you've monstered up, even if it is not very often). Here are the EVS: If BB's overpair is a heart(in this case 10H), then BB is about a 53% favorite here. If BB doesn't, then you are about a 51% favorite here. If BB has a hand like AH KH, then you are again about a 51% favorite.