Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

I did...but should I have?

I feel I have a very good read on this guy (CO). He's at about 5 of my 8 tables. Other than preflop, he doesn't seem to get out of line much. I've seen him slow down drastically post-flop, even on some hands where he has raised it up preflop.

He's 36/18/2.
His PFR is made up of PURELY $5 raises.
If its from early position, its a big hand.
If it is after a raise, it's a big hand.
If no one has opened, or there are limpers he will do it with suited aces, pocket pairs, and bigger broadway hands.

*Note, he didn't raise preflop, so I don't put him on any of the above hands.

My thinking is...the only hands that can make that raise are nut flush draws (he would have raised preflop), overpairs (he would have raised preflop)...sets (he would have raised his pocket pair preflop)...or the straight.

So, my only question was whether I wanted to get in a huge pot for a push...and possibly with the smaller end of it.

Can you guys lay this down? Is it a mistake to do this with such a big hand?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($116.05)
Button ($25.58)
SB ($17)
Hero ($81.50)
UTG ($56.55)
UTG+1 ($36.15)
MP1 ($44.70)
MP2 ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, UTG calls $2.50, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $10</font>, Hero folds, UTG calls $7.50.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

you might as well just paypal me your money

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

I havent read your post just looked at the hand. Never do this again.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
you might as well just paypal me your money

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

One quick note. I don't make a habit of making big laydowns. In fact, it is very rare. However, I have been playing with this guy all night (about 500 hands so far), and felt pretty confident in how he was playing.

Don't expect this to become a regular thing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
I havent read your post just looked at the hand. Never do this again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you've got to read it.

Tell me, you have seen this guy stay "in-line" postflop all night...what do you put him on that would make this raise?

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

A set/2 pair

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I havent read your post just looked at the hand. Never do this again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you've got to read it.

Tell me, you have seen this guy stay "in-line" postflop all night...what do you put him on that would make this raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

96, 79, 67, misclicks preflop, and also the fact that he might not be quite as predictable as you think.

But hey, the thing with hands like this is that 2p2 community will say "ZOMG MORAN HOW COULD YOU FOLD SECOND NUTS!" But you're the one playing at the table and if it's your read that you're beat, then you should stick with your reads.

But seriously, how could you fold the second nuts?

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

2pair, a set, flush draw with overs, some combo draw....all of which you're ahead of

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

exactly 1 hand beats you T8. There is absolutely no way you can put this guy on exactly that hand. They could have AA for all you know, you have only seen 500 hands.

Edit: where did i get 500 from?

RESULTS!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I havent read your post just looked at the hand. Never do this again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you've got to read it.

Tell me, you have seen this guy stay "in-line" postflop all night...what do you put him on that would make this raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

96, 79, 69, misclicks preflop. Also the fact that he might not be quite as predictable as you think.

But hey, the thing with hands like this is that 2p2 community will say "ZOMG MORAN HOW COULD YOU FOLD SECOND NUTS!" But you're the one playing at the table and if it's your read that you're beat, then you should stick with your reads.

But seriously, how could you fold the second nuts?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol..well. I don't put him on two pair, because I just don't see him thinking that is good against the blinds given how the action has gone.

However, those hands are far more likely than a set or flush draw in my eyes.

Looking back, I definately think I overlooked those.

He was certainly the only person I played with tonight that I'd consider laying that hand down to...but I guess I probably wouldn't do so again given the general horror displayed here.

On to the results...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($116.05)
Button ($25.58)
SB ($17)
Hero ($81.50)
UTG ($56.55)
UTG+1 ($36.15)
MP1 ($44.70)
MP2 ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, UTG calls $2.50, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $10</font>, Hero folds, UTG calls $7.50.

Turn: ($24.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, CO checks.

River: ($24.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $12</font>, UTG calls $12.

Final Pot: $48.75

UTG has 8c Kc (one pair, nines).
CO has Td 8h (straight, ten high).
Outcome: CO wins $48.75. </font>

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

NO!!!!!!!!!!! Don't fold in situations like this one.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
exactly 1 hand beats you T8. There is absolutely no way you can put this guy on exactly that hand. They could have AA for all you know, you have only seen 500 hands.

Edit: where did i get 500 from?


[/ QUOTE ]

I said it...but if you read the first post again, you will know that AA along with several other hands are simply not possible (including sets, and nut flush draws).

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

God you suck. Stupid brag posts. This was the worst laydown in the history of the universe.

Edit: said with a [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: RESULTS!
 

Oh, and as you can see...UTG didn't have the same read as myself, lol.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
you will know that AA along with several other hands are simply not possible

[/ QUOTE ]

not possible?? You must be a super genius reader to be so certain.

Re: RESULTS! (ORIENTED)
 

Please call next time.

Re: RESULTS! (ORIENTED)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please raise next time.

[/ QUOTE ]


FYP

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

there have been a ton of read-related monster folds/calls threads recently. why people post them here for commentary baffles me. bragging maybe?

with all of the information that you can provide in a paragraph, this looks horrible. with all of the information that he might provide over thousands of hands of play, this might be slightly less horrible.

is he really raising 66/77/99/AXhh preflop always here? what about K8hh? 89hh? any of these ever possible?

i agree with you that there is no way to find out if you are ahead here without getting to the felt all in, but it sounds like your decision was based more on fear of getting stacked for 160BBs than it was on a realistic range here.

EDIT: in addition, if you actually somehow had an absolute read that you were beat, posting this would still be useless.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

LOL

I would maybe fold this if it was an extremely passive nit that KEPT RAISING ME on this flop and we were 300bbs deep. (E.g I bet, he raises, I reraise, he rereraises, I rerereraises, he pushes).

Seriously man, you so hate money. I would NEVER fold this under these curcumstances.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

making a big lay down post is just asking to get flamed. Seriously, I never see people react well to these things.

EDIT: [censored], just realized, you have backdoor outs. How can you not push given backdoor outs, that accounts for like 5% equity. At least call and see the turn man, gosh. This isn't a big laydown, its a big mistake.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

i would never fold here against anyone

Re: RESULTS! (ORIENTED)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Please raise next time.

[/ QUOTE ]


FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

yes. I didn't even look at the stack sizes or the blinds. I would definitely put in a pot sized re-raise here.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

I admire this fold, because with your preflop reads, he can only have 2 pair, which you beat. But after he plays the turn so passively, and I guess, you had this kind of postflop reads on other hands before, he will not raise the flop so much with just 2 pair.
So, you have to put him on T8.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

I think your read is a little wacky. Your boy (I think) is the button. Observed him play this hand:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button ($135.40)</font>
SB ($38.75)
BB ($49.25)
UTG ($52.08)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+1 ($79.88)</font>
MP1 ($47.55)
MP2 ($27.85)
CO ($46.22)

Preflop: SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($8.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $18</font>, UTG+1 calls $13.

Turn: ($44.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $22</font>.

River: ($66.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $66.75

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+1 has 8d 8s (two pair, eights and sixes).
Button has Kc Qd (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Button wins $44.75. UTG+1 wins $22. </font>

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

yeah i think the reads off.

Thanks for posting down here Mr. Miller and btw.. your converter messed up. :9

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
yeah i think the reads off.

Thanks for posting down here Mr. Miller and btw.. your converter messed up. :9

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you believe that's the first time I've ever used a converter...

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

Nothing like posting a hand, getting flamed for the laydown and then "proving" people wrong by showing the "incredible" fold you made. You are so good I will stake you in this year's main event because it's obvious you would win it easily.

TTTTTTOOOOOOOOLLLLL

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing like posting a hand, getting flamed for the laydown and then "proving" people wrong by showing the "incredible" fold you made. You are so good I will stake you in this year's main event because it's obvious you would win it easily.

TTTTTTOOOOOOOOLLLLL

[/ QUOTE ]
Get over yourself.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Nothing like posting a hand, getting flamed for the laydown and then "proving" people wrong by showing the "incredible" fold you made. You are so good I will stake you in this year's main event because it's obvious you would win it easily.

TTTTTTOOOOOOOOLLLLL


[/ QUOTE ]

Get over yourself.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
I admire this fold, because with your preflop reads, he can only have 2 pair, which you beat. But after he plays the turn so passively, and I guess, you had this kind of postflop reads on other hands before, he will not raise the flop so much with just 2 pair.
So, you have to put him on T8.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sarcasm? I sure hope so.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

I DOUBT I fold this if my life depended on it...

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

Ed,

When did you start observing PP NL$50? I am impressed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

i agree with traz, for the same reason i agree with everything 2paul2 says.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ed,

When did you start observing PP NL$50? I am impressed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hewas probably observing for ideas for SSNLHE.

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

I disagree with the play you made.

Ok, a couple of things...(just woke up)
 

Not quite sure what Ed Miller is showing me (although I'm honored to see him posting in my thread). That hand played out VERY differently from the hand I posted. It is heads up, so it is quite a bit different than both the blinds showing real strength on a low connected flop.

Ok, next. This is in no way a brag post.

I'm very much convinced (mostly by all the trash talking, talking down to), that this was a pretty horrible fold. At the time I thought it was the right move, but now I know it isn't.

I'm not a results oriented person. However, I did feel fairly smart when he turned over the hand I put him on, and THAT IS WHY I posted the hand here. To reassure myself that I am not smart. That I cannot fold this hand.

I am not a confident player by any means. I don't think I'm better than anyone here, or most the people I play against. The hand was posted purely to get this response, so that next time, I know that no matter what my read is, I can't fold a hand like this. So...it has served it's function, and I appreciate all the help.

Re: Ok, a couple of things...(just woke up)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'm better than anyone here, or most the people I play against.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you are clearly better than UTG. Tell the dealer you want the seat to his left. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Who can fold this flopped straight? (from the SB).
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ed,

When did you start observing PP NL$50? I am impressed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hewas probably observing for ideas for SSNLHE.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been playing some 50NL for the past week or two to get acquainted with how people in those games play... yes, it's with the SSNL book in mind.

Re: Ok, a couple of things...(just woke up)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not quite sure what Ed Miller is showing me (although I'm honored to see him posting in my thread). That hand played out VERY differently from the hand I posted. It is heads up, so it is quite a bit different than both the blinds showing real strength on a low connected flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right.. it's a very different situation. Nevertheless, I think your fold is predicated upon the notion that your opponent almost never has a lot of hands (based on your read) that he otherwise could have, and I don't think he plays predictably enough to pin him down so closely.

Re: Ok, a couple of things...(just woke up)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am not a confident player by any means. I don't think I'm better than anyone here, or most the people I play against. The hand was posted purely to get this response, so that next time, I know that no matter what my read is, I can't fold a hand like this. So...it has served it's function, and I appreciate all the help.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the way I see it... "going with your reads" is important, but to do that correctly, you also have to be aware of how likely your read is to be correct. No read is perfect... there's always uncertainty. Your opponent could have changed gears, you could have happened to only see him in a particular situation before, he could be on tilt or playing randomly, or whatever.

To borrow a concept from investing... you need a "margin of safety" with your reads. That is, "going with your read" is great if you can be somewhat wrong about it and still be making the right play. It's a lot dicier when your read has to be almost perfect for the play to be correct.

Furthermore, and here's something I may want to write an article about.. hehe.. you should take into account the prior probably of ANYONE playing the way you think your opponent plays. That is, not only do you have to think, "How closely do I have my opponent pinned down?" but you also should think, "What percentage of all players happen to play the way I think he plays?"

If it's a high percentage of players, then you should be more confident in your read than if almost no one else plays this way. Why? It's a Bayesian thing... if very few people actually play the way you think this guy plays, then the chance your read is off goes up.

Here's a quick (though very imperfect) example. Say you have observed him for a while, and you think he only overbets postflop with really strong hands. A fair number of people play that way... or at least it's a plausible way to play, so it's somewhat believable.

Now say you have observed him for a while, and you think he overbets the pot only when he holds specifically jack-five (say you've seen him do it three times already). No one plays that way... and because of that, you should be very suspicious of your read, even if you have a fair amount of evidence to suggest the read.

Basically, the more "plausible" your opponent's play, the quicker you should be to give him credit for playing that way. If you think your opponent does something really bizarre, then you need a lot more evidence to convince you of it.

In your example, I don't think you gave yourself a margin of safety. You assumed that your opponent played in this very strange way... and you had to be almost exactly right to make the play you did.