2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Hey guys, title of the post says it all. I'm thinking of moving out to Vegas in the next few months and I was wondering if the 2-5NL games are beatable for enough to make a living. My monthly nut is around $2000, and I know that the swings can be enormous even at these stakes. Will 50 buy-ins ($10k) be enough to withstand the variance? Thanks a million.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

what are your monthly expenses, not bare but with your standard of living. If you play somewhere like wynn all day and get all your meals comped by tipping floormen well then maybe you can do it... but life won't be glamorous

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Since your nut is $2K per month, you should have at least $12K (6 months of living expenses) in reserve in additon to your playing BR. Sounds like you need about $25K on hand for a reaosnable shot at being successful. Of course there are variables including how good you are at poker. Good luck.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

I think it could be done if you are a decent player, and if you can find a cheap place to live, but I would only do it with the intention of moving up in limits as soon as you felt comfortable... I think I would probably have at least 100 buy ins as a bankroll and also enough money to pay my rent for at least 6 months if I never made a dime. Good luck.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Yes as long as you are disiplined (most people arent) with your gome selection and spending habits. The problem is you will have a lot of cash on you in a casino all the time, so its easy to blow money. Good Luck

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

I think it can easily be done. The 2/5 NL games there are so soft its a joke. I would have a BR of at least 10 grand to start with if you wanted to do it for a living though.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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Yes as long as you are disiplined (most people arent) with your gome selection and spending habits. The problem is you will have a lot of cash on you in a casino all the time, so its easy to blow money. Good Luck

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Yes, do not learn how to play craps.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Based on my limited experience with 2/5 at the Wynn (3 sessions) you should be able to do it easily with a solid game with good game selection.

You should have a few months of living expenses tucked away in addition to your BR. Trust me downswings can last months.

Also do not limit yourself to only 2/5 NL games. If there is a rocking 15/30 LHE game and your 2/5 sucks, move!

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

please provide evidence of your winrate either online or live and we can give you a better answer.

50 buyins is a good start, but add at least 3 months living expenses to that.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

First of all your monthly "nut" as you call it will not be 2K in Vegas. A decent apt. is going to cost you half of that at least! Since you will be playing poker 8 to 12 hours a day, four or more days a week, you will be eating out a lot. You can of course get some comp benefits from the rooms where you play, however, keep in mind that not only are most places starting to tighen up on comps but it takes a lot of poker action to get any really decent comps out of a large room. Chances are you will be eating a lot of buffet food if you expect to live on 2K and comps.

Next, you need to figure on $20/day in gratuities (mimimum). 20 days out of the month, that's another $400 you need to clear. You may have seen or heard much debate about the need to tip or not tip but I assure you that if you plan to hang at the Wynn or Bellagio or the Mirage and think you can get away without tipping the cocktail waitress, the dealer, the brush (or cardroom manager) as well as a myriad of other "service personnel" then you are in for a rough time.

So let's do the math and see what it will really take...

Let's say you actually need $3000/month, not $2000. (probably a conservative figure) Divide that by 20 days and you only need to clear $150/day every single day that you play in order to achieve your monetary goal.

Assuming you can average a 40% rate of winning sessions (this is the figure Annie Duke told me that she was averaging after years of cash game play) that means you will actually leave the game ahead 8 out of 20 sessions.

This leaves you needing to average $375/session to earn your $3000 "nut". (and that buffet food isn't tasting so good after a couple of months).

Keep in mind that you also need to win enough during your winning sessions to recover your losses during your 12 loosing sessions or your bankroll will begin to shrink.

Playing any NL or PL game the variance will be much greater so your won/loss swings will be larger than if you were playing LHE. (one of the math genuises on this forum can help you work out the numbers).

At any rate, I'm sure you are beginning to catch my drift. While it can be done, you are probably pushing the limits of probability by expecting to win enough money playing NL or PL games for relatively small blinds/ buy-ins. Probably would be better served to fortify your BR, hone up on your LHE game and try to grind out one big blind per hour at the 20/40 tables.

That way you could keep your play down to 30 hours per week or so ($1200/week, not too shabby), keep your mind fresh and be able to have the time and money to eat somewhere besides the buffet line at the Imperial Palace.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

If you are asking i would say NO!!!!

The games are soft but without alot of experience in bankroll management, game selection, and the ability not to go off playing casino games you are in trouble.

Being able to beat the game is only half the battle.

The games at the beligio are very soft but small buyin.
The games at the wynn are a little tougher.
The games at the smaller poker rooms would be your best bet.
MGM has some soft action.


you will have to take some shots at the bigger games 5-10 NL or 10-20 NL. Buy in small and hit and run when the games are good.


I read in 1 of the post that a win rate of 40% is good. If your win rate is 40% in NL you will have no shot of making a living. You should win around 70% of the time in these games. When you are running goood and the games are good play.


GOOD LUCK you are going to need it.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

No at the Bellagio; yes elsewhere.

The critical problem at the Bellagio is that with a $200 cap and few larger stacks in a 10-handed game, you have to nit. You just do not get enough hands to make it worthwhile, although a leatherass with 60 hours a week to blow could easily make $1000/week or more. In the absence of the "pros" who make money off the game, you can develop room to move and make more.

In the $2-5 at the Wynn, the story is very different. A good pro can easily make a living off of those games. $20/hour is plenty to live off, and $50/hour is a reasonable winrate for a good player who buys to cover and works his (or her) schedule around the shorthanded games. By good I mean a typical successful high-stakes player who does not tilt heavily and can induce action and get away from hands quickly. But you cannot cork off your stack. Simple as that. In many cases one can simply hardbet preflop, flop and turn for hours, only needing to recognize the occasional big hand (which typically is not difficult), and will win a fair amount of money even if he does not hit a couple big hands. And when you do and they have AK on a K board, they never believe you. This is the superprofitable LAG style. It works well only against bad opponents.

It is generally foolish for anyone who has trouble beating the Wynn $2-5 game to "take a shot" at the Bellagio $10-20. Stop doing it. You will, most likely, hold it together ofr an hour or two then give your stack away. I have done it and seen it again and again. Player plays really tight for an hour or two, then loosens up, then a couple experienced players bully him a bit and he runs into a big hand or two, then it all goes in the middle and he's left trying to explain why the play was reasonable. Experienced players feed off of that. I'm telling you it's like a neon sign. Instead, take your "shot" at the $5-10 when the lineup is soft. Soft may well mean a lot of players are throwing chips around and doing a lot of calling. Fine. Play pairs and AK and take your due.

Also, the OP's question begs the question: why are you depending on live play to pay your expenses? In the modern age, live play is a luxury for a professional, something to be enjoyed after the nut is in hand. The online money is sickly easy once you learn enough of the game. Study the first two hours of each morning, then play for four and make the 10K a month. After that you can go play live to scratch the itch.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Only 10k?

Have you not read CaptZeebo's blog yet?

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey guys, title of the post says it all. I'm thinking of moving out to Vegas in the next few months and I was wondering if the 2-5NL games are beatable for enough to make a living.

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Yes, but... for every success story there are probably several failures. I've talked to multiple 20-somethings who picked up a couple big tournament wins back home and were cleaning up on their home cash games who came to Vegas to be a poker pro. 6mo later they've lost $20K, they have $5K left, and are shell shocked that things coulda gone so wrong.

So have a plan B.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Generally Tipping, etc is figured into winrates. I know I figure in my winrate after cocktail, dealer, and brush tips.

And 2K for a monthly nut is pretty darn reasonable if you live sparsely. If your car is paid for, get a roommate in a not expensive place. You can get by on $500 in rent, $400 in other bills (insurance, utilities, internet), and a few hundred for food,gas. You can easily make a $1500 nut work with room to spare. $2K is darn reasonable as a not over the top living expenses. Now can you make 2K a month after tips, rake, suckouts, etc at the 2/5 NL game. That I don't know. I would think you probably could as I think you can make 2K a month at the 4/8 LHE games in vegas (avg 2 BB/hr @ 40 hours/week = 640/week), but I wouldn't want to try at anything less than 10/20 and preferably 20/40 (which is why I plan to deal as well as play until I am confident enough in my winrate to stick in the 20/40)

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First of all your monthly "nut" as you call it will not be 2K in Vegas. A decent apt. is going to cost you half of that at least! Since you will be playing poker 8 to 12 hours a day, four or more days a week, you will be eating out a lot. You can of course get some comp benefits from the rooms where you play, however, keep in mind that not only are most places starting to tighen up on comps but it takes a lot of poker action to get any really decent comps out of a large room. Chances are you will be eating a lot of buffet food if you expect to live on 2K and comps.

Next, you need to figure on $20/day in gratuities (mimimum). 20 days out of the month, that's another $400 you need to clear. You may have seen or heard much debate about the need to tip or not tip but I assure you that if you plan to hang at the Wynn or Bellagio or the Mirage and think you can get away without tipping the cocktail waitress, the dealer, the brush (or cardroom manager) as well as a myriad of other "service personnel" then you are in for a rough time.

So let's do the math and see what it will really take...

Let's say you actually need $3000/month, not $2000. (probably a conservative figure) Divide that by 20 days and you only need to clear $150/day every single day that you play in order to achieve your monetary goal.

Assuming you can average a 40% rate of winning sessions (this is the figure Annie Duke told me that she was averaging after years of cash game play) that means you will actually leave the game ahead 8 out of 20 sessions.

This leaves you needing to average $375/session to earn your $3000 "nut". (and that buffet food isn't tasting so good after a couple of months).

Keep in mind that you also need to win enough during your winning sessions to recover your losses during your 12 loosing sessions or your bankroll will begin to shrink.

Playing any NL or PL game the variance will be much greater so your won/loss swings will be larger than if you were playing LHE. (one of the math genuises on this forum can help you work out the numbers).

At any rate, I'm sure you are beginning to catch my drift. While it can be done, you are probably pushing the limits of probability by expecting to win enough money playing NL or PL games for relatively small blinds/ buy-ins. Probably would be better served to fortify your BR, hone up on your LHE game and try to grind out one big blind per hour at the 20/40 tables.

That way you could keep your play down to 30 hours per week or so ($1200/week, not too shabby), keep your mind fresh and be able to have the time and money to eat somewhere besides the buffet line at the Imperial Palace.

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Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

You have to consider taxes...you really need to make 3k a month to reach your 2k monthly nut...assuming you can live on 2k.

-dustyn

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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Only 10k?

Have you not read CaptZeebo's blog yet?

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I am a pessimist.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

If you can't avoid casino games then you shouldn't even try and be a pro gambler(yes I know about TJ). Also who tips a floorman? I have never done this in my life........ [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Take a 2 week vacation to Vegas and play 2/5NL. Try some 1/2 NL and 5/10 NL also. If you play limit well, try some limit holdem/stud/Omaha games. See how you do on the trip.

If you can't beat games in casinos, card clubs, or the Internet for a good profit now, don't try to become pro.

Also, multitabling SNGs or cash games on the Internet is pretty steady and you should show a profit most days doing that. You might try some of that to steady your income. I am mostly a tournament player, which results in big swings, but I find some multitabling of SNGs keep things steadier.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Giving them a little taste every now and again might work wonders. "Oh, you're next, buddy"

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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Playing any NL or PL game the variance will be much greater so your won/loss swings will be larger than if you were playing LHE. (one of the math genuises on this forum can help you work out the numbers).

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this statement alone pretty much disqualifies your whole post. there are tons of other inaccuracies in this post as well, OP ignore this one.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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I think you can make 2K a month at the 4/8 LHE games in vegas (avg 2 BB/hr @ 40 hours/week = 640/week

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Nobody's true winrate in a live 4/8 limit game is really 2BB/hr.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Nobody that stays at 4/8 has a true winrate of 2 BB/100. 4/8 Vegas = $0.50/1.00 online. And there are a LOT of people who can sustain a 6-7 BB/100 winrate at 0.50/1.00 online. Now 99.9% of those people are playing at MUCH higher stakes, but you can definately sustain a 2 BB/hr winrate live. You would be a moron to do so for long, as you could probably just as easily sustain a 1 BB/hr winrate at 20/40.

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I think you can make 2K a month at the 4/8 LHE games in vegas (avg 2 BB/hr @ 40 hours/week = 640/week

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Nobody's true winrate in a live 4/8 limit game is really 2BB/hr.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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Nobody that stays at 4/8 has a true winrate of 2 BB/100. 4/8 Vegas = $0.50/1.00 online. And there are a LOT of people who can sustain a 6-7 BB/100 winrate at 0.50/1.00 online. Now 99.9% of those people are playing at MUCH higher stakes, but you can definately sustain a 2 BB/hr winrate live. You would be a moron to do so for long, as you could probably just as easily sustain a 1 BB/hr winrate at 20/40.

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I think you can make 2K a month at the 4/8 LHE games in vegas (avg 2 BB/hr @ 40 hours/week = 640/week

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Nobody's true winrate in a live 4/8 limit game is really 2BB/hr.

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Exactly, I am sure that plenty of pros could make more than 2BB/hour at 4/8 limit live if they put their mind to it. But if you could do that, you probably shouldn't be playing 4/8. The play is very bad. I know Sklansky made a comment that no one could make 1/2 BB/hour in the big game. As you move up in limits, it becomes harder to make so many BB/hour in much tighter games.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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I think it can easily be done. The 2/5 NL games there are so soft its a joke. I would have a BR of at least 10 grand to start with if you wanted to do it for a living though.

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I have to agree with this...grinding it for $500 a day for 4 days a week is possible.

I'd say 50 buy ins + living expenses would be a good start.

Something in the range of 35-50K would be about right but I'd say its more than possible.

This is not playing the BELLAGIO GAME.

Striclty mirage, wynn, and MGM only.

I honestly think you could make 6 figures playing this game.

Buy in for max, grind it out, leave when you hit your $$ goal. YOu need to be extremely disciplined in MONEY MANAGEMENT, not playing casino games and quitting when you hit your target profit for the day.

I also think a full time job would compliment this well. You need financial stability and decent healthcare god forbid.

Playing this game alone would be risky to live off of depending on amount of traffic in las vegas at down times of the year.

good luck

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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quitting when you hit your target profit for the day

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Also set loss and time limits.
Chasing a lost buy in playing a 36 hour session is never a good idea .

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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quitting when you hit your target profit for the day

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Also set loss and time limits.
Chasing a lost buy in playing a 36 hour session is never a good idea .

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right, you need to set you daily loss too, I'd say two losing buy ins, THREE at the absolute max. you need to be able to realize that it's not your day after dropping two buy ins playing TAG and tomorrow is a new start.

As far as target goal, it should be in the range of 4-500 for a 5-7 hour session.

It's totally possible in the long run to beat this game for large amounts and whoever said the swings are bigger in NL than limit obviously has never tried to play NL full time v limit poker.

In NL you can control your variance I think in a superior way.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Depending on your opponents you can run pretty consistent at NL. Limit no matter how bad the players are you can't do much certain days.....

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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Buy in for max, grind it out, leave when you hit your $$ goal. YOu need to be extremely disciplined in MONEY MANAGEMENT, not playing casino games and quitting when you hit your target profit for the day.

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I hope you mean NOT quitting when you hit your target profit for the day. If the game is good and you are playing well, you should not get up because you have won X amount of dollars.

Stop-losses on the other hand, while I do not agree with them, probably will help a lot of players.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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Buy in for max, grind it out, leave when you hit your $$ goal. YOu need to be extremely disciplined in MONEY MANAGEMENT, not playing casino games and quitting when you hit your target profit for the day.

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I hope you mean NOT quitting when you hit your target profit for the day. If the game is good and you are playing well, you should not get up because you have won X amount of dollars.

Stop-losses on the other hand, while I do not agree with them, probably will help a lot of players.

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You need to be confident enough that you can beat the game you are in that you don't let whether you are winning or losing effect things too much. Continuing to play for a long stretch to make up a loss is bad.

If you are losing, take a break, quit for the day, or move to a different table, or casino. I don't like to stay in a game I am losing unless the game is very good.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

I think your kidding yourself if you think that $10k will be enough.

I have just completed my first year playing mainly $2-5 NLHE for a living. My bankroll is $40k, in 2005 I earned $53501.00 playing 1354 hours. That is a win rate of $39.51 per hour. My daily win pct is 73.37% and my Coefficient of Variation is 0.11. I have been playing PL and NL for more than 15 years.

Durring 2005 I had a plateau that lasted 278hours(almost 3 months) and my largest down swing was -$5306.

Now granted it was harder at the beginning of 2005 because of the limited games selection in town.(no MGM until end of march and no Wynn until end of April.).

The games are also not as good on the weekdays. So expect to be playing poker every Friday and Saturday night.

In the begining you will also have to be able to deal with the stress. Playing for a living with no backup income will really increase those knots in the neck and shoulders.

In the past year I have seen many young players come to town to try and make their living playing. I have not seen many of them last more than a month. There are very few players at the Wynn making it on poker alone. I know this for a fact because I talk to all of the regulars there. Most of them have some other income and do not rely on poker alone. If you would like to ask me any specific questions please feel free to contact me.

Good luck
See you when you get here.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Not bad - only 26 hours per week on average. Sounds though just like you said, lots of weekend nights with some time off during the week. Just curious - why not multitable online??
Do you do better live?

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Why would someone grind it out live for $35/hr?

If my online winrate starts dipping below $200/hr I start to get worried... I feel really bad for you guys doing this live.

Not only that, but I almost never play Fri/Sat nights anymore... there is just so much better stuff to be doing besides working.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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Why would someone grind it out live for $35/hr?

If my online winrate starts dipping below $200/hr I start to get worried... I feel really bad for you guys doing this live.

Not only that, but I almost never play Fri/Sat nights anymore... there is just so much better stuff to be doing besides working.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, good for you, but the peons have to start somewhere.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

Ok, so even if the games are soft enough to make 24K a year, what's the game plan 5 years or 10 years from now? On 24K you certainly can live but trying to put away decent savings or bankroll building is going to be near impossible. Without a bigger bankroll you don't have any hope of moving up to Meteron's $200/hr. If you decide to stop playing poker, what skills are you going to put on your resume?

I'm not trying to be a killjoy, but I think you need to take a longterm view of going pro. It's a tough, gutsy way to make a buck and best of luck to you.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so even if the games are soft enough to make 24K a year, what's the game plan 5 years or 10 years from now? On 24K you certainly can live but trying to put away decent savings or bankroll building is going to be near impossible. Without a bigger bankroll you don't have any hope of moving up to Meteron's $200/hr. If you decide to stop playing poker, what skills are you going to put on your resume?

I'm not trying to be a killjoy, but I think you need to take a longterm view of going pro. It's a tough, gutsy way to make a buck and best of luck to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is probably some young guy who wants to get started. He is probably not planning on making $24K for ever. In 10 years, he probably hopes he will be playing high stakes and major tournaments.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

First of all, if you realy only want to make $2K/month, you should be able to do it very easily at 1/2NL. If you can't make that much at 1/2 NL, you have no business being a no limit pro. Your variance should also be lower at 1/2 and you don't need a huge bankroll. I don't really recommend 1/2 for a pro, but it might be an easy way to start if you don't need to make a lot.

2/5 NL is a reasonable place to start as a no limit grider. However, you might think more in terms of starting at 1/2 and working your way to 2/5 and then maybe 5/10. Also, you can play 2/5 but switch sometimes to 1/2 or 5/10 if there is a good game with those blinds.

Also, you may consider playing some online. It might also be good to have something you can make decent money at part time, so you can ease your way into being a poker pro gradually. That's how I did it.

You need to be confident that you can beat certain games. It is better to either gradually become a pro or know that you can make a more than adequate rate for a pro as a hobbyist player before going pro.

Going to Vegas without a lot of money and without confidence that you can beat the games with the intention of making as a pro will put you under a lot of pressure and you may not be successful with this approach.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

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Playing any NL or PL game the variance will be much greater so your won/loss swings will be larger than if you were playing LHE. (one of the math genuises on this forum can help you work out the numbers).

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this statement alone pretty much disqualifies your whole post. there are tons of other inaccuracies in this post as well, OP ignore this one.

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Exactly. It seems like everyday I see someone state as fact that NL/PL has more variance than limit. This should be included in the FAQ in every forum on this site. LIMIT HAS MORE VARIANCE.

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

NL has very little variance if you know what you are doing. The variance is the highest the fastest and loosest you play. Ie the Party 25NL games from 2 years ago. I used to auto push or bet pot with JJ or better on brick flops and invariably got called by ace high guys every time. If I nutpeddaled I would have had almost no variance. These days when I play live I stick to rock styles as I don't really have a live roll and just withdraw cash from a savings account to play 1/2 NL(100max) live.....

Re: 2-5NL Games in Vegas: Can you make a living?
 

i'd say play live 2/5 a few nites a week, then spend the rest of time 8tabling 100NL(or higher) online.