KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

I like sinister minister.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

The Derby is always a tough nut to crack, and even more so this year.
Winning this race is a longshot proposition, which one should bear in mind when making any picks. Play it for fun, not as a serious play.
It can help if you have some convictions about the race, and I have two:

1) I want to bet against Lawyer Ron, who I regard as an impetuous front-ender who will push any possible pace.
2) The overall pace will be very very sharp, and I want to bet against all the horses that will be any part of the expected suicidal pace.

So I will throw out any horse that I think will be within 3-4 lengths of the front at the 3/4 or 5/8 pole. That is eleven horses, by my reckoning.
Of the remaining nine, I give four no shot (Showing Up, Bluegrass Cat, Storm Treasure, Seaside Retreat), leaving me with five contenders.

In order of my opinion they are:

Steppenwolfer (30/1)
AP Warrior (15/1)
---------------------
Point Determined (12/1)
Jazil (30/1)
---------------------
Cause to Believe (50/1)

I will have win bets on the top two and exactas using some combinations of the top four.
Also, I plan to include three speed types that may hang on for part of it and use Sinister Minister, Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek underneath in some trifectas.
As far as I am concerned, SNS is the "wise guy horse" and will be seriously overbet for what he is.

Don't forget the Oaks-Derby Double, which can be very juicy if you can throw out the favorites.
In the Oaks I am interested in Wander Lady Anne L (8/1) and perhaps Wait a While (5/1).

Enjoy the race. Maybe sip a little KY bourbon as they go to post!
bc

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

This is a hell of a Derby...

In my opinion, it's setting up kind of like 2001 (Monarchos). You have two very gifted speed horses (Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry) pinned down inside right next to each other (the 3 and 4). Sharp Humor is relatively inside as well. The result: I'm thinking a huge speed duel. I loved Sinister Minister coming out of the Bluegrass, but he is striking me as a Millenium Wind type: huge Bluegrass figure, terrible pace scenario =>Derby flop.


That's all I've got for now... I don't think this is going to be won on the front end. I'm still trying to figure out who I think can get up. I do agree that a skilled plodder type like Steppenwolfer or Bob and John should get a pretty good set-up for a piece here, though I'm not convinced either has a chance to win.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

My pick is likely going to be Sweetnorthernsaint.

Huge figures coming in. Great pattern. Versatile, and none of the pace or position negatives of the speed guys (Sinister Minister) or the likely favorites (BD, LR).

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Easy, tri-box point determined/bob and john/a.p. warrior.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

If I have to pick one horse I pick Brother Derek. I am not a chalk eater, but I do not think you have to look for value in the derby. The exotic pools are so huge anything pays well. Just look at the payouts when FuPeg and Smarty won the race.

Brother Derek has done everything that has been asked of him. You can't fault him for devouring small fields in California. It is a little concerning that he got sucked into the hot pace in the Juvenile, but holding fourth in that race was an accomplishment.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined will be the wise guy horses. They deserve to be and both look to be doing very well coming into the race. I do not think SNS is versatile. His wins have come in races where the pace was soft. He sizzled home in the Illinois derby and he will be on my tickets. PD has been fighting the track bias at Santa Anita and should feel more comfortable at CD.

I do not care much for Lawyer Ron or Steppenwolfer. Can't like Bob and John off that race in the Wood. Barbaro won the Florida derby from the 10 post and may be the speed of the speed. I don't like him to win, but he may be the one holding on for third or fourth. AP Warrior will be on my tickets because of his seasoning.

Good luck all.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
(snip)
I do agree that a skilled plodder type like Steppenwolfer or Bob and John should get a pretty good set-up for a piece here, though I'm not convinced either has a chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Last year before the race, nobody thought Giacomo had a shot. I am looking for horses that "haven't done it yet" but are sitting on a great opportunity. Horses that need to run a better race than any they've shown so far, and are poised to do so tomorrow. (FWIW I bet Giacomo in last yrs Derby).

To me the game, and particularly this race, is not about "picking the winner." It's about finding an opportunity for a score. Players who need to "pick the winner" should head at once for Bro Derek, the most likely winner at this point, and no doubt an underlay.

But for me, I don't want any part of the four shortest prices in this race, as they all have a pretty strong tie-in to the expected hot pace. That means any horses I use will be over 10/1, at least in the morning line, and if you look back at who I like, in my earlier note, I am pretty sure they'll all be over 10/1 at post time, too.

When you bet that kind, you have to be prepared to throw your tickets on the ground and laugh when the race is over. But you also have opened a door to a big hit, and in a situation I consider +EV. (By tossing the top four, one more than makes up for the takeout, assuming he's right.) My horses may run badly tomorrow, and if so, then so what?
It's just one race, just like a poker hand is just one hand in a larger game, and an even larger overall experience.

Have some fun with it tomorrow!

bill c

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

yeah i was at derby and i didnt bet on the jockey of giacomo mike smith to win and he went off at ridiculous odds.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Triple H,

Bob and John's race in the Wood was much better than it looked, in my opinion. His thorograph figure for it is surprisingly fast (like 0 1/2 or something) largely because I think he lost a ton of ground on the turn.

Compare Brother Derek, who's fast races have come getting dream trips on the rail at a Santa Anita track he obviously adores.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I have to pick one horse I pick Brother Derek. I am not a chalk eater, but I do not think you have to look for value in the derby. The exotic pools are so huge anything pays well. Just look at the payouts when FuPeg and Smarty won the race.

Brother Derek has done everything that has been asked of him. You can't fault him for devouring small fields in California. It is a little concerning that he got sucked into the hot pace in the Juvenile, but holding fourth in that race was an accomplishment.

Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined will be the wise guy horses. They deserve to be and both look to be doing very well coming into the race. I do not think SNS is versatile. His wins have come in races where the pace was soft. He sizzled home in the Illinois derby and he will be on my tickets. PD has been fighting the track bias at Santa Anita and should feel more comfortable at CD.

I do not care much for Lawyer Ron or Steppenwolfer. Can't like Bob and John off that race in the Wood. Barbaro won the Florida derby from the 10 post and may be the speed of the speed. I don't like him to win, but he may be the one holding on for third or fourth. AP Warrior will be on my tickets because of his seasoning.

Good luck all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bro Derek can be faulted for his lack of value and the fact his last 3 races he hasn't gone against 19 horses *combined* much less in one race, much less from the 18 pole.

Everyone is jumping on Point D, so I am jumping off. Still hoping SNSaint is 10-1 or better tomorrow, less than 8-1 and I will avoid, not been training well last 3 days either.

Nobody seems to like Barbaro or Lawyer Ron to win, reminds me of how all the 'experts', not one bet on Smarty Jones. Ron is the most seasoned, has come from off the pace [but not far off] and run a Beyer over 105, a requirement for 8 of last 13 Derby winners - only K. Entry, Derek, SNS and SinMinister can say the same, and KEntry and SinMin are likely throwouts.
All Barbaro does is win, ran 103 last time out, and is most rested horse. 4-1 sucks though, you can get 6.5-1 some places online.
I also like AP Warrior at 18-1 or better and Sharp Humor at 50-1 in many places online to hit the board.

I like Jazil and Steppenwolfer if it rains to hit the board also. Smartest thing tomorrow is to NOT bet to win but box 4 horses Exacta and Trifecta. SNS/APWarrior/LRon/Jazil? Barbaro/Ron/Steppen/BobnJohn on a rainy track? Something like that.

Naj

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
Triple H,

Bob and John's race in the Wood was much better than it looked, in my opinion. His thorograph figure for it is surprisingly fast (like 0 1/2 or something) largely because I think he lost a ton of ground on the turn.

Compare Brother Derek, who's fast races have come getting dream trips on the rail at a Santa Anita track he obviously adores.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. In the rain I like him, but he lost that ground because he failed to change leads and almost blew the race, another 1/8 mile and Jazil woulda won by 5 lengths and the final furlong was awfully slow. Perhaps there's some value at 12-1 or so. Two weeks ago his odds were 8-1 or so and they've done nothing but drop.
There are 7 horses with better Beyers than him 3 with multiple ones higher than him. Hard to like here and he certainly can get pushed out wider in a 20-horse field around the turn, which would basically kill any chance whatsoever for him, and getting buried inside behind the 4 speed horses as they die off, one by one, may be a worse fate. He will need a perfect trip.

I agree that BroDerek is your typicaly 5th or 7th place Derby finisher, maybe he gets up for the Show. Definitely consider for superfectas.

Naj

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
Triple H,

Bob and John's race in the Wood was much better than it looked, in my opinion. His thorograph figure for it is surprisingly fast (like 0 1/2 or something) largely because I think he lost a ton of ground on the turn.

Compare Brother Derek, who's fast races have come getting dream trips on the rail at a Santa Anita track he obviously adores.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey W,

I am admittedly a harness racing fan and expert handicapper. When it comes to the runners I just play the big races mainly and am far from expert.

That said I just saw an exhausted Bob and John at the end of a very taxing race in the Wood. Moving forward off that race seems unlikely. Of course we will all find out tomorrow.

BTW - I have a streak of endorsing the third place horse and I like Brother Derek and AP Warrior. Go get 'em.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

As we get closer to post time, more smoke is coming out of my ears... I cannot remember the last time where I thought almost a dozen horses all have a legitimate shot at winning this race. I saw the updated odds within the last hour on TVG and saw Steppenwolfer at a meager 11-1. I know this will come up by the time the race goes off, but at those odds, I suddenly am not such a fan! Was hoping to get 25-1 or more on a horse I thought could gobble up the ground down the stretch at what could be the fastest fractions I have seen in my life. It's looking more and more like I might just box 6 horses or so in an exacta, and possibly wheel the entire field in some sort of pick 3/pick 4 depending on the races leading up to the Derby. One of these years I would love to have a pick going with an "ALL" in the Derby, just so the favorite can win by 10 lengths! LOL.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Hijacking.

Where do you guys go to follow the game? I own and have read Beyer and Davidowitz and am really fascinated by it, but getting started seems overwhelming. Is there a 2+2 of horseracing?

-McGee

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Think you can throw out the slop angle..

http://i3.tinypic.com/xaneh5.jpg

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Go to bloodhorse and read Steve Haskins commentaries.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hijacking.

Where do you guys go to follow the game? I own and have read Beyer and Davidowitz and am really fascinated by it, but getting started seems overwhelming. Is there a 2+2 of horseracing?

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is basically "yes." The most sophisticated handicapping is done by Jerry Brown and co. at www.thorograph.com and Ragozin at www.thesheets.com. The two are really, really bitter rivals, but they basically share similar methodology. They handicap based on very involved speed figures which incorporate not only time and track speed, but ground loss, wind, weight, etc... The do a lot of empirical studies on whether certain figure patterns in certain conditions are profitable. It's very interesting stuff, in my opinion. Go to thorograph.com and download their Kentucky Derby seminar (it's like $15). I think you'll find it very interesting.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Oh my. I have a juicy live ticket in the Oaks/Derby double.

I have Lemons Forever(45:1) with Point Determined, Barbaro, A.P. Warrior, SNS, Cause to Believe and Brother Derek. I played the 4,7,9,12,13,14 in the Oaks. Cost = $72. Bad news is I did not play the exacta in the Oaks. If you know my history you can throw out the above horses in the derby! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Way to go!!
You are very live, and some of those will pay huge.

bc

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

I am not a big horse bettor, but have read a number of cappers all talking how they expect a furious pace, with a lot of frontrunners who need to lead all fighting each other and pushing the pace too early. So they expect the eventual winner to be perhaps a deep closer like last year, or a strong stalker that is just off the pace. Some on this board seem to agree.

The hard part, of course, is picking the eventual winner, but I'm not really looking to nail the correct longshot, as I don't know enough to do so. I'd simply like to make a reasonable wager with the above in mind. That being said, would it be a good move to simply bet against the favorites expected to push the pace? The odds would not be great, but you would only be in danger from a few horses (albeit the favored ones).

For example, you could cover every single horse except wagering against just 3: Barbaro, Brother Derek, and Lawyer Ron, for a combined line of somewhere around -130 if anyone else wins. If you add in another couple of the favorites, you could probably push it to +200 or +300 or so, depending on how many horses you wanted to risk betting against.

Is this a good idea, or does it seem silly to bet against these favorites? If it's an okay move, what other favored horses are a good idea to bet against?

All bets in put up or shut up!!
 

Think the pick three is going to be chalky on top so trying to get some added value on the horses I like in the Derby:

Props (Bodog):
Odd Numbers - $11 to win $9
Kiaran horse won't show - $50 to win $25
< 2:02.75 - $20 to win $12
Derby winner won't win Preakness - $30 to win $8

Hedges (Kiaran prop):
$8 show Jazil
$2 show Flashy Bull

Pick 3:
5,7 / 3,9 / 3,4,5,10,11,16

$5 win 3,4,10,11

Exactas - TBD if Pick 3 isn't live.

GL all!

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
Think you can throw out the slop angle..

http://i3.tinypic.com/xaneh5.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

This baby loves the slop!!!
"Loves the slop?"
Eats the slop!!
"Eats the slop?"

Hey what'd I just say?

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

For my win ticket I used A.P. Warrior.

For my exacta I played a 4 horse box of Point Determined, Showing Up, A.P. Warrior and Cause to Believe.

If the speed duel that I am expecting does not materialize I am screwed.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Sweetnorthernsaint.

I love how they show Battaglia and he's like "damn, I [censored] up the morning line yet again, I better defend all the horses I posted at 4-1."

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

I like, in order, Barbaro
Lawyer Ron
SNSaint
and AP Warrior and Jazil for the superfectas.

Small save win bets on SinMinister and Bluegrass Cat [39-1 for a good horse never worse than 4-1 is big overlay], also a must use in Exotics.
Avoid Bro Derek, BobNJohn, Point D.

Naj

ps Here comes the 75-1 shot to win...

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

I've got Sweetnorthernsaint across the board.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

At pinnacle how do you wager on trifectas and exactas? I cannot find how to do them anywhere.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like, in order, Barbaro
Lawyer Ron
SNSaint
and AP Warrior and Jazil for the superfectas.

Small save win bets on SinMinister and Bluegrass Cat [39-1 for a good horse never worse than 4-1 is big overlay], also a must use in Exotics.
Avoid Bro Derek, BobNJohn, Point D.

Naj


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I picked Barbaro and had Bluegrass Cat in my exotics, hope someone out there at 2+2 besides me made some $$$.

Off to eat some very expensive sushi. Barkeep, 'nother mint julep!

Naj

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Made money on the race!!! However, I won't be retiring, or even calling in sick to work for a day! LOL... I had Steppenwolfer across the board, putting progressively more on him to place and show vs the win. He pretty much ran how I expected, and put into previous posts. (Always coming, just doesn't get there...) Barbaro was a monster out there today, and I don't see any reason why he won't demolish the Preakness field other than the fact that we usually get a couple of talented "fresh" horses that didn't make it into the Derby field...

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I picked Barbaro and had Bluegrass Cat in my exotics, hope someone out there at 2+2 besides me made some $$$.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn Naj, why couldn't I use your top 5 picks with my horse in a tri box? We'd be hammered in the clubhouse at Belmont Park tomorrow celebrating! Nah...don't think I could have had it because of Bluegrass Cat... However, my ol' man had the winner cold, but he usually bets favorites, so that didn't shock me... The key to everything today was Bluegrass Cat...

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I picked Barbaro and had Bluegrass Cat in my exotics, hope someone out there at 2+2 besides me made some $$$.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn Naj, why couldn't I use your top 5 picks with my horse in a tri box? We'd be hammered in the clubhouse at Belmont Park tomorrow celebrating! Nah...don't think I could have had it because of Bluegrass Cat... However, my ol' man had the winner cold, but he usually bets favorites, so that didn't shock me... The key to everything today was Bluegrass Cat...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I had BCat in one tri box...with LRon and Steppenwolfer in the other...wth SNSaint. No $11.5k payout for me but I'll take the 294-1 on the exacta box!

Even funnier, my girlfriend seperately picked Barbaro [she picks one horse a year to bet on] for $10 to win. Maybe I can make her pay! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

Got pretty close to the big payout but no cigar. Got one outed by Bluegrass Cat on the river.

My boxed trifecta was Steppenwolfer, Barbaro, Brother Derek, & Sweetnorthernsaint. So pretty damn close for a first time horse bettor. Got two of the three and Bro. Derek was in a dead heat for fourth. Oh well maybe the next two Triple Crown races will bring me better luck.

Re: KENTUCKY DERBY>>>WHO DO YOU LIKE????
 

DAMN YOU BLUEGRASS CAT!!!! ditto for me on the tri except for 12 had 8,2,18 box.