Hoping for Coin Flips
 

Coming from a 2-3 year cash game background I never had a problem with "coinflips" because in the past if the raise was cheap, and the money was relatively deep, I'd take a flop and hope to hit a set or make a read on an opponent if I felt he had overcards based on his flop or preflop betting or image.

As I've adjusted to tournaments I am having a ridiculously hard time dealing with what I should do with pocket pairs two through eight. It seems I'm always "hoping" for a coinflip situation. Then I know I'm a slight favorite in the hand and can leave it up to the five cards to come out and award a winner in the hand.

There are certain situations that are easy, when you are a large stack you can call and if you take a slight hit you will have enough chips to continue. If your M is under 5 any pair is good enough to take a stand with.

But what about situations where you are bordering around chip average and a guy who is half chip average pushes in front of you? Sometimes, if you are not in the blinds you have to worry about a guy behind you picking up a better hand than your pair.

Odds of being dealt a pair are about 5%. So if you have a pair and the all in only takes about half your stack should you gamble that it is a coinflip, because usually it is? Do you guys use a borderline hand, like sevens or sixes to make these calls?

Little example:
$22 Multi Table Tournament on PokerStars
UTG folds, UTG+1 pushes all in for 7050, all folds.
Hero is in BB with 55 (12450).

If my read on the UTG+1 is that he is a very aggressive player, raising a lot of pots and pushing in situations like this when he is desperate it is a much easier call, because I'm likely ahead.

However, if I have just been moved to the table, or if the opponent is relatively tight, at what point do I muck this hand?

Obviously we all know to win poker tournaments, especially online poker tournaments, which do NOT have the great tournament structure of a Bellagio or World Series of Poker Event you need to accumulate a boatload of chips.

One way is winning coinflips, which comes with the territory of winning No Limit Hold'em Poker Tournaments.

However, what I seem to be doing in this case is "hoping" for a coinflip." When I use my time bank and eventually hit call with two sevens I pray to see an AK, AQ, KQ, QJ, or whatever hand these people decided to make a stand with.

After all, when I'm not a huge stack I need to make moves on my own to stay into the tournament. But when I'm around tournament average and a guy pushed his chips in in front of me for a little over half my stack and I've got a measly pair of fours or threes that could be drawing to two outs or even counterfeited on types of flops like 885 what am I to do?

Does anybody have any tips here? Mucking is the safer play, but in order to win tournaments mucking is never the best option.

I'm sure this post was all over the map, because I'm thoroughly confused and always sweating these type of situations. I feel like a donkey when I eventually call with pocket fives and see my opponent has pocket jacks. Then I'm drawing to two outs and the potential for my tournament is over because I've just lost about half my stack.

Hopefully someone can enlighten me a little and ease my problem.

Thanks.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

Muck em when there is action in front of you and calling isn't an option. Play them if you can be first in. That's my philosophy. I hate "praying" for the coin flip.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

have you read HOH2? small pairs are not what you want to take a stand with when your M is below 5. On top of that, you should only be taking a stand when you have "first in" vigourish. The only time you should be pushing in after someone else has entered the pot is when you have top tier hands.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

You don't want to be calling when at best you think you are a coin flip. You shouldn't mind pushing as much and getting coin flips if called, because sometimes everyone folds and you win uncontested.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
have you read HOH2? small pairs are not what you want to take a stand with when your M is below 5.

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Which HOH2 is that then? You have to go in with small pairs, though you may not neccesarily call with the lowest ones.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

read the section on inflection points where he discusses "M" and "Q". small pairs are death.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

I just don't know when to step up and play to accumulate chips. Winning a coinflip gives you a nice stack, losing and you are knocked down, but at least you won't be blinded out.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

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I just don't know when to step up and play to accumulate chips. Winning a coinflip gives you a nice stack, losing and you are knocked down, but at least you won't be blinded out.

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well, what you mentioned was M below 5. You really do not have that many choices when you are in desperation mode. At this point it is either push or fold, you just have to pick the best spot.

Seriously, you haven't said if you've read HOH. Read 1 & 2. They will help you out greatly and they disucss many different scenarios. Hope this helps.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

I hate calling significant all ins with those small pairs. Pushing with them is much better, but you have to be careful when you do so.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
read the section on inflection points where he discusses "M" and "Q". small pairs are death.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not when your M is 5 or less. He points this out on several occasions. Sure don't play them for trip value when you have more than that, but in the red zone you are playing the pair as the best hand.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
read the section on inflection points where he discusses "M" and "Q". small pairs are death.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not when your M is 5 or less. He points this out on several occasions. Sure don't play them for trip value when you have more than that, but in the red zone you are playing the pair as the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm at work, so obviously I don't have the book with me right now, but I believe this is precisely where he was saying you don't want to play low pairs (orange and red zone).

Without the book on hand, I apologize if I'm wrong. Anyone have the book handy?

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

once you are in the push or fold area, I would rather push first in with 72, than call an all-in with 55.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

When you're talking about calling the push, it's purely a pot odds question. Give Villain a range and determine your equity and pot odds. When it's a borderline situation, you might take into consideration the size of your stack (if it will cost only about 10% of yout stack to call, you should be more inclined to coin flip- your chips are worth less than Villain's, since his are his last) and table image (if you've just gotten to the table, you might make a slightly loose call to send the message to others not to mess with your blind).

The real key to winning coin flips is aggression. You want to be the one doing the pushing, hoping to be in a coin flip situation IF you are called. If Villain folds 20% of the time, you've turned a 50/50 situation into a 60/40 situation.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
When you're talking about calling the push, it's purely a pot odds question. Give Villain a range and determine your equity and pot odds. When it's a borderline situation, you might take into consideration the size of your stack (if it will cost only about 10% of yout stack to call, you should be more inclined to coin flip- your chips are worth less than Villain's, since his are his last) and table image (if you've just gotten to the table, you might make a slightly loose call to send the message to others not to mess with your blind).

The real key to winning coin flips is aggression. You want to be the one doing the pushing, hoping to be in a coin flip situation IF you are called. If Villain folds 20% of the time, you've turned a 50/50 situation into a 60/40 situation.

[/ QUOTE ]]

good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

My question was more on the lines of an M of 8-12. It can catapult you to a M of over 15 if you win, but if you lose you are feeling the heat of any two determining the great phrase "tournament life".

This also can be stretched to what to do with the blinds at 200/400 and a ante of 25 with eight people at the table, you with a stack of 12000.

Your M=15. You are UTG with two fives. A conservative play would be to dump it. A dumb play would be to raise, because you are lost when you don't flop a set.

If the table is loose what the heck do you do?

This is the reverse of calling the all in obviously, but still has my head scratching. To me its the hardest part of tournament poker...down the stretch lower pocket pair play.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

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I'm not sure I follow. Are you suggesting he should fold in situations where he has the proper pot odds to call because he does not have fold equity?

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

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[ QUOTE ]
good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

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I'm not sure I follow. Are you suggesting he should fold in situations where he has the proper pot odds to call because he does not have fold equity?

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exactly. unless he has a top tier hand. you can't play a short stack the same as if you have an average stack.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When you're talking about calling the push, it's purely a pot odds question. Give Villain a range and determine your equity and pot odds. When it's a borderline situation, you might take into consideration the size of your stack (if it will cost only about 10% of yout stack to call, you should be more inclined to coin flip- your chips are worth less than Villain's, since his are his last) and table image (if you've just gotten to the table, you might make a slightly loose call to send the message to others not to mess with your blind).

The real key to winning coin flips is aggression. You want to be the one doing the pushing, hoping to be in a coin flip situation IF you are called. If Villain folds 20% of the time, you've turned a 50/50 situation into a 60/40 situation.

[/ QUOTE ]]

good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

[/ QUOTE ]

First in vigourish is great when you are in MP3, Cutoff, Button, SB and it's folded to you. It's also great when you are pushing a suited connector in late positon using the first in vigourish and really want to pick up the blinds and antes.

But with an M looming around 10-12, like I mentioned before and early position what good is first in vigourish when six people behind you can pick up a hand that could have your mid pocket pair annihilated?

I feel first in vigourish is obviously great because there is a string of folds to you.

Ugh. Calling all ins with middle pocket pairs from the blinds and pushing mid pocket pairs in early position, with Ms looming around 10-12 literally anger me.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When you're talking about calling the push, it's purely a pot odds question. Give Villain a range and determine your equity and pot odds. When it's a borderline situation, you might take into consideration the size of your stack (if it will cost only about 10% of yout stack to call, you should be more inclined to coin flip- your chips are worth less than Villain's, since his are his last) and table image (if you've just gotten to the table, you might make a slightly loose call to send the message to others not to mess with your blind).

The real key to winning coin flips is aggression. You want to be the one doing the pushing, hoping to be in a coin flip situation IF you are called. If Villain folds 20% of the time, you've turned a 50/50 situation into a 60/40 situation.

[/ QUOTE ]]

good point.

when you are this low in chips, it is no longer about being given the proper pot odds. It is about fold equity. This is the reason for first in vigourish.

[/ QUOTE ]

First in vigourish is great when you are in MP3, Cutoff, Button, SB and it's folded to you. It's also great when you are pushing a suited connector in late positon using the first in vigourish and really want to pick up the blinds and antes.

But with an M looming around 10-12, like I mentioned before and early position what good is first in vigourish when six people behind you can pick up a hand that could have your mid pocket pair annihilated?

I feel first in vigourish is obviously great because there is a string of folds to you.

Ugh. Calling all ins with middle pocket pairs from the blinds and pushing mid pocket pairs in early position, with Ms looming around 10-12 literally anger me.

[/ QUOTE ]

we were still talking about M<5. if you have an M of 12, then obviously you can open up your play a little bit and do not have to ONLY push or fold.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

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If my read on the UTG+1 is that he is a very aggressive player, raising a lot of pots and pushing in situations like this when he is desperate it is a much easier call, because I'm likely ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would also strongly recommend that you get PokerStove or a similar hand analysis tool.

With PokerStove, plug in a hand range you think your villain might be playing and compare that to your hand. Do this often, it will be illuminating.

Let's look at your example. Let's say that your villain is very aggressive and his range for his all-in is any pair, any two broadway cards, and aces down to A7s/A7o. Against this range you are not a slight favorite in the coinflip but a slight dog, 52% to 48%.

Yes, you are ahead of most of the hands in that range. The problem is that the ones that you are behind, you are way behind. Averaging them all out, and you are an underdog.

And I think your situation is worse, as I think someone pushing all-in UTG, even someone desperate, will have a tighter range than that.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

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exactly. unless he has a top tier hand. you can't play a short stack the same as if you have an average stack.

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Have to disagree with you here. Short-stacked is the worst time to pass up marginal edges, because it is so likely that you will be forced into making a -EV play in the near future. Very often, short stack pushes are either marginally +EV or slightly -EV. They are desperation plays made to avoid being forced into an even worse situation later. Say it's folded around to you in the SB and you have 5 BB's left. You should push here regardless of what two cards you hold, not because you expect Villain to fold often enough to make up for being a dog against his calling range, but because you will probably not get a better opportunity to put your chips in.

If you were the BB with 5 BB's remaining and it were folded to the SB, who also had 5 BB's left, and he went all in, are you throwing away 55?

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

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[ QUOTE ]
exactly. unless he has a top tier hand. you can't play a short stack the same as if you have an average stack.

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Have to disagree with you here. Short-stacked is the worst time to pass up marginal edges, because it is so likely that you will be forced into making a -EV play in the near future. Very often, short stack pushes are either marginally +EV or slightly -EV. They are desperation plays made to avoid being forced into an even worse situation later. Say it's folded around to you in the SB and you have 5 BB's left. You should push here regardless of what two cards you hold, not because you expect Villain to fold often enough to make up for being a dog against his calling range, but because you will probably not get a better opportunity to put your chips in.

If you were the BB with 5 BB's remaining and it were folded to the SB, who also had 5 BB's left, and he went all in, are you throwing away 55?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am by no means an expert. I am only the messenger. ACCORDING to HOH2 and according to this ONLY. Another expert or another author may recommend different.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

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Odds of being dealt a pair are about 5%.

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This factoid shows that you're dangerously misguided in how you think about hand distribution. Assuming this 5% figure is true, it's only useful if your opponent's pushing range is any 2 cards. As someone suggested earlier in the thread, get pokerstove.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

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I am by no means an expert. I am only the messenger. ACCORDING to HOH2 and according to this ONLY. Another expert or another author may recommend different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does Harrington advocate making a fold like this? I think you might be confusing the section where he says the value of low pairs goes down when M's get low because you can't play them for set value any more. I don't think he advocated passing up +cEV calls when you are short-stacked.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you were the BB with 5 BB's remaining and it were folded to the SB, who also had 5 BB's left, and he went all in, are you throwing away 55?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, what you describe is not a slightly +EV situation.

Here the range of the small blind is huge, possibly any two. If SB's range is the top 60% of his hands your 55 is a 54/46 favorite.

On top of this, you already have 1BB in the pot, you are calling 4BB to win 10BB, so your calling odds are 40%.

Calling with 40% pots odds to win 54% of the time is more than slightly EV+. Fold and you have 4BB. Call and your EV is 5.4BB, a 35% increase.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Odds of being dealt a pair are about 5%.

[/ QUOTE ]
This factoid shows that you're dangerously misguided in how you think about hand distribution. Assuming this 5% figure is true, it's only useful if your opponent's pushing range is any 2 cards. As someone suggested earlier in the thread, get pokerstove.

[/ QUOTE ]

good catch, i just read right over that without it even registering. chances of getting a pair are exactly 1 in 17.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am by no means an expert. I am only the messenger. ACCORDING to HOH2 and according to this ONLY. Another expert or another author may recommend different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where does Harrington advocate making a fold like this? I think you might be confusing the section where he says the value of low pairs goes down when M's get low because you can't play them for set value any more. I don't think he advocated passing up +cEV calls when you are short-stacked.

[/ QUOTE ]

read the whole section, including the examples. this is exactly what he recommends. first in vigourish is about fold equity. if you are calling someone who has already opened the pot, you have almost ZERO fold equity. Keep in mind this is M<5 that we are talking about. It is either push or fold.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

1/17 is about 5-6%, what am I not catching here?

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

I am not sure that I would place so much value on your assumptions. Further, I would be much more conservative with your stack under the conditions you describe. You have a good stack that affords you the opportunity to later capitalize on better opportunities.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
1/17 is about 5-6%, what am I not catching here?

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think the point was that this is more like 6%. really not a big deal. just seemed like you pulled the 5% out of the air, when it is a simple calculation. i just missed it when i first read it. really not a big deal.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
1/17 is about 5-6%, what am I not catching here?

[/ QUOTE ]
You're not catching the fact that just because your opponent has a ~5% chance of being *dealt* a pair, that doesn't mean that ~5% of his *pushing range* is made up of pairs.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

I pulled the 5% out of the Phil Gordon book..Little Green Book. I could have made it 5.8% but just cut it down.

Here's the example that jumpstarted this thread. M of 10.8. Picking up 800 chips is a nice addition to the stack at this stage, where players are playing tight. They might lay down a pair themselves, if it's under nines, but most likely they are looking for double up opportunities as well. In general, table has been playing tight and scared, since we are on the bubble. A few have typed in the chat box that they just want to get the bubble over with so, implying they want their money and then will loosen up. This is a $22 180 man tourney on Stars. I figured I could either push or limp in and maybe see a flop and bet a raggedy board. A raise is out of the question. How would you play this? MP2 is a tight player, who comes in for a raise with a top notch hand. MP2 doesn't have a top 4 hand from what I've seen, though he could be getting tricky and hoping the SB pushes.
We have a short stack in the SB, who could be getting desperate. There COULD be a raise by the button, but he's a TAG. No reads on the BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t8620)
MP2 (t15668)
Hero (t8661)
Button (t21650)
SB (t3300)
BB (t9530)
UTG (t7300)

Preflop: 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1/17 is about 5-6%, what am I not catching here?

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You're not catching the fact that just because your opponent has a ~5% chance of being *dealt* a pair, that doesn't mean that ~5% of his *pushing range* is made up of pairs.

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I understand. I was really using this as a stat of what to do when an opponent pushes... wouldn't you say if I'm holding a pair and it's 5% likely to get one that most of the time the opponent will be pushing overcards so I'm ahead a small amount?

We all know it's more likely to be dealt two non paired cards than two paired cards...so if I have a pair and there is a push in front and there is one or no people behind me shouldn't I gamble here "hoping for a coin flip?"...even though we should never be hoping.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
I pulled the 5% out of the Phil Gordon book..Little Green Book. I could have made it 5.8% but just cut it down.

Here's the example that jumpstarted this thread. M of 10.8. Picking up 800 chips is a nice addition to the stack at this stage, where players are playing tight. They might lay down a pair themselves, if it's under nines, but most likely they are looking for double up opportunities as well. In general, table has been playing tight and scared, since we are on the bubble. A few have typed in the chat box that they just want to get the bubble over with so, implying they want their money and then will loosen up. This is a $22 180 man tourney on Stars. I figured I could either push or limp in and maybe see a flop and bet a raggedy board. A raise is out of the question. How would you play this? MP2 is a tight player, who comes in for a raise with a top notch hand. MP2 doesn't have a top 4 hand from what I've seen, though he could be getting tricky and hoping the SB pushes.
We have a short stack in the SB, who could be getting desperate. There COULD be a raise by the button, but he's a TAG. No reads on the BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t8620)
MP2 (t15668)
Hero (t8661)
Button (t21650)
SB (t3300)
BB (t9530)
UTG (t7300)

Preflop: 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

60/40 limp/fold

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I pulled the 5% out of the Phil Gordon book..Little Green Book. I could have made it 5.8% but just cut it down.

Here's the example that jumpstarted this thread. M of 10.8. Picking up 800 chips is a nice addition to the stack at this stage, where players are playing tight. They might lay down a pair themselves, if it's under nines, but most likely they are looking for double up opportunities as well. In general, table has been playing tight and scared, since we are on the bubble. A few have typed in the chat box that they just want to get the bubble over with so, implying they want their money and then will loosen up. This is a $22 180 man tourney on Stars. I figured I could either push or limp in and maybe see a flop and bet a raggedy board. A raise is out of the question. How would you play this? MP2 is a tight player, who comes in for a raise with a top notch hand. MP2 doesn't have a top 4 hand from what I've seen, though he could be getting tricky and hoping the SB pushes.
We have a short stack in the SB, who could be getting desperate. There COULD be a raise by the button, but he's a TAG. No reads on the BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t8620)
MP2 (t15668)
Hero (t8661)
Button (t21650)
SB (t3300)
BB (t9530)
UTG (t7300)

Preflop: 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

60/40 limp/fold

[/ QUOTE ]

you're spitting the weak tight advice rockin. i also think you're wrong with your interpretation of HOH.

with an M under 5 you need to call ANY push with ANY pocket pair. you want to have first in/fold equity on your side when you push with Q2o or T8s. those types of hands are push or fold. a pocket pair is a solid holding and should be played as such.

in that particular hand. i think you can put in a normal raise there with an M of 11. if you get called you could push a non-ace flop.

i wouldn't fault you at all for pushing and taking the blinds. i prefer something more assertive than a call here because you'd be happy to take the blinds without a flop. if the SB pushes you call and hold up against his KJo or whatever. folding there is just to weak/tight for my taste. maybe i could fold it in EP... but in the CO?

the main thing is if you run around trying to avoid races you're going to give up a ton of equity by laying down the best hand far too often.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
wouldn't you say if I'm holding a pair and it's 5% likely to get one that most of the time the opponent will be pushing overcards so I'm ahead a small amount?

We all know it's more likely to be dealt two non paired cards than two paired cards...so if I have a pair and there is a push in front and there is one or no people behind me shouldn't I gamble here "hoping for a coin flip?"...even though we should never be hoping.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's too fuzzy. The math is easy. Just construct a pushing range for your opponent, and count the possible card combinations. There are 6 ways to be dealt any particular pair. There are 16 ways to be dealt any particular non-pair hand. So for example if your opponent has a pushing range of TT+ and AQ+, that's 5x6=30 possible pairs and 2x16=32 possible non-pairs. Fiddle with the pushing range and see how often you're up against a non-pair. Then, remember that when he has a non-pair, you're usually only slightly ahead, and usually crushed when he has a pair.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

OK, there is a lot of back and forth over this 5-6% chance of a pair think that I think an example is in order.

Lets say its early in a tournament, full table, and UTG raises. What are the chances that he is raising with a pair?

First, let's put UTG on a range of hands -- AA-99, AKs-AJs, and AKo-AQo.

A pair can be made 6 ways, AA-99 represents 6 different pairs, so that is 6 * 6 = 36 hands

Two specific suited cards can be made 4 ways. AKs-AJs represents 3 different hands, so 3 * 4 = 12 hands.

Two specific unsuited cards can be made 12 ways. AKo-AQo represents 2 different hands, so 2 * 12 = 24 hands.

So UTG is raising with 72 different hands, of which 36 of them are pairs. This UTG raiser will have a pair 50% of the time.

This is not 5-6%. The 5-6% is swell and all, but means very little during actual play. What matters is the percentage of times the villain will have a pair WITHIN THE RANGE OF HANDS HE WILL PLAY.

And FGators, that percentage is not affected by whether or not you have a pair, if your pair is not in his range. Even if your pair is in his range, you are taking only a couple of hands out of his range, so the % is not affected that much.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

Let's just say I followed Rockin's advice of who told me to limp in this spot. The SB who has an M of 3.875. He's been playing tight poker throughout the tournament, as he has been at my hand for four levels now. He pushes. Is this an easy call? If I lose this hand I'd be knocked down quite a few pegs and be in major trouble.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t8620)
MP2 (t15668)
Hero (t8661)
Button (t21650)
SB (t3300)
BB (t9530)
UTG (t7300)

Preflop: Hero is CO with :4c, :4s.
[color=#666666]2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t400, Hero calls t400, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB raises to t3100</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP2 folds

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

You can call 2900 to win a 7400 pot, so your calling odds are 39%.

Let say that the SB is pushing with 25% of his hands, which according to PokerStove is a range of A5+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, and JTo. Against this range, your 44 has a 46% change of winning.

So calling is EV+, but not by much.

Re: Hoping for Coin Flips
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can call 2900 to win a 7400 pot, so your calling odds are 39%.

Let say that the SB is pushing with 25% of his hands, which according to PokerStove is a range of A5+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, and JTo. Against this range, your 44 has a 46% change of winning.

So calling is EV+, but not by much.

[/ QUOTE ]

The not by much is the whole thing. How desperate should I be? How much +EV do I need in these situations?

Is this why it might just be better to shove all in here when I'm in the cutoff, not even worrying about what MP2 could have limped in front of me even though he hasn't played many hands, and even though I still have the button and the two blinds behind me?