If you\'re so smart, Ed....
 

If you're so smart, Ed, why don't you write a book about it?!

(kidding, I read it)

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

[ QUOTE ]
"But I have top pair and a backdoor."...Low levels, folks with raise with anything.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hello. I have read this posting by ed Miller up to this post (above), so I don't know if this has been answered below. I don't know even remember if this has been answered above. The moral presented in this entire posting is that one should be betting (raising???) with top pair (despite weak kicker). Also included in the logic is the fact of a backdoor flush possibility for "hero". Does this only apply with a pair of A's, or does it apply with ANY top pair onthe flop (eg. you have 79 and the board comes 923)? Should I be betting from early pos. and raising in mid or late pos? Or betting in last position if it has been checked to me? (lets say for example that my 79 was free in cutoff by paying a live big blind).

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

ED MILLER POSTED THE FOLLOWING:
The size of the pot dictates how you play your hand. When the pot is small, making cautious folds is often correct. When the pot is large (which it is once it is raised preflop in this case), you MUST PROTECT YOUR HAND... you have to gamble. You have too much to lose if you play cautiously.

BTW, folding in this situation is ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE ***[top pair on the flop]*** . It is an enormous error. I'm glad you fixed that leak. But now you have to start playing more aggressively.

<font color="blue">Thank you Ed Miller! </font>

Felipe

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

I know this post is for microlimits, but I am wondering how the advice can apply to low-stakes NL .. ?

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Still Post of the Year.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

NL is wayyyyyyyyy different...the bets are often bigger relative to the size of the pot than in limit, so you need to be more judicious in your calling

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know this post is for microlimits, but I am wondering how the advice can apply to low-stakes NL .. ?

[/ QUOTE ]

The texture for NL is much different (obviously) but the pot size is still a big factor in terming your Bet/Raise amounts and whether or not to Call to continue.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Assuming these people do study, I'd hope by now they'd heard of pot odds. That's essentially what you're advocating without all the extra math.

variance hurts my head though
 

I've been playing hold 'em for 3 weeks or so and I just read SSHE by Ed. I've been playing .50/1 at party and playing generally tight hole cards that he recommends. Most of the money I've lost has been from following marginal hands into the showdown.

Even if it isn't the best strategy for expectation, I, as a beginner, choose not to play marginal hands, but solid draw or near nuts on a made hand. I'd much rather creep up at a steady rate on my bankroll then have a slightly higher expectation and a roller coaster ride chasing marginal hands that have +EV.

I understand being aggressive when you have a reason to be but I'm just defending newbie action against playing these hands. If we're trying to build a bank roll and build some confidence I think it's not a bad idea to play lower variance plays?

In the long run though it's a bad idea to keep doing this.

This is just how I see it....my defensive psychology is kickin in.

Bizz-ump
 

Bumping this, because I realized my last few posts have been me saying what's in this post, and people should hear it from Ed instead of random poster DMBFan23.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing for about 4 months and to be honest I still have problems figuring out odds and pot odds, especially on the fly.

[/ QUOTE ]

The best thing to do is to just memorize the pot odds on the most common situations you face. So post flop, you are going to draw one card (usually the odds are close enough to the same drawing to the turn, and drawing to the river that you can treat them the same):

--Flush draw (2suited in your hand, 2 of the suit on the board): about 4-1

--Open ended straight draw: about 5-1 (4.8 to the turn, 4.75 to the river)

--Gutshot straight draw: about 11-1 (actually 10.75-1 to the turn, 10.5 to one to the river)

--Overcards (odds of pairing one of your cards when both are higher than any card on the flop): about 6.5 to one (6.8 turn, 6.6 river)

--drawing to one pair (you have middle or low pair and while it may be good, you'd really like to improve to either two pair or trips): about 8.5-1

--Drawing to a pocket pair (you missed your set on the flop): 22.5-1 and 22 to one.


Anything I left out anybody? Are my numbers right?

The really important thing to remember however, is that improving your hand may not win it for ya. If you can accurately put your opponent on a hand it may be that your actual odds of improving to a winning hand are much worse than just the odds of improving your hand to something better than you already have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Believe it or not--I've been playing online about 2 months, I've read TOP and the Hellmuth book and I've read postings here, Steve Badger's website, and at recpoker and I've never seen the stats on hands and odds laid out for me. Thanks.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

I should have listened to that advice--a few seconds after reading this post and commenting on how helpful it was I folded a pot that was giving me about 14:1 to call--I had gotten involved with red pocket 2's and watched a 3-5-6 flop with 2 diamonds. I called the 1 bet and watched an Ad hit. I folded to a single bet and watched the 4h hit. The winner showed his two pairs and everyone else mucked (AAAARRGH! no flush and no higher straight!) I need to listen to good advice when I get it.

Re: Bizz-ump
 

this one should be bumped every week or so

Re: Bizz-ump
 

Is there any way that these posts (this one, BisonBison's Notes on notes, etc.) can be stickied to the top of the forum? I've seen that in many other forums and think it would be a great idea here too. They're constantly referred to and are as much standard reading as SSH.

Re: Bizz-ump
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any way that these posts (this one, BisonBison's Notes on notes, etc.) can be stickied to the top of the forum? I've seen that in many other forums and think it would be a great idea here too. They're constantly referred to and are as much standard reading as SSH.

[/ QUOTE ]
If they'd stick every worthwhile thread, even only the really really good ones, to the top of the forum, that would occupy most of the page.

Re: Funny hand just happened in response to this
 

Thank you Ed, nice post!

Re: Funny hand just happened in response to this
 

Bump [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Too bad you can't add a thread to favorites without replying. Please advise if this isn't the case and I'm missing something.

Re: Funny hand just happened in response to this
 

This isn't the case. Look at the bottom of any thread, and press the "Toggle Favorite Thread" link.

Voila!

Edit: My bad, "Favortie Thread! (Toggle)" link

Re: All newbies...read this....AWESOME POST...
 

It's almost the end of the year. I still vote it for best thread of the year. It's right up there with the impact that "Super System" had.

Re: All newbies...read this....AWESOME POST...
 

This IS post of the year. No contest. This has improved my game like you wouldn't believe.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

I read this post earlier today, managed to double up my $25 sit-down at a cheap table... so my thought was that if that small chunk of knowledge helped enough to have a good run this afternoon, that reading more would probably significantly benefit my game.

So I just got back from B&amp;N with Small Stakes Hold'em and I'm looking forward to reading through it this weekend and hopefully turning a day's worth of good fortune into a much longer streak of solid play and eventually a jump to more profitable poker myself.

Thanks Ed!

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Great post,

I am still reading it though, just started. I don't know if I missed it, but can someone tell me what limits are considered "Micro". I usually play 5-10 online (3/6 sometimes) and wondered if all of this applies to those limits too. Thanks.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

well since its been rebumped, here goes another Thanks to Ed for great advice

and seriously more ppl need to read, then post .. questioning how big is a "big" pot was asked like 5times by 5diff ppl, and answered by Ed at least 2times

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Thanks to Ed Miller for the words of Wisdom. I'll chase those big pots a bit more and fold those small ones a bit more too.

I am willing to vote this topic of the year for 2005!

JB

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Yeah...well it was made Jan 2004...so I guess it was Topic of last year for Micro already. Or close too it.

Re: Six months later...
 

Mr. Miller (or anyone else..),

I am a small stakes NL player looking to expand my game into limit. I own a copy of SSHE but have not read much past the first chapter. My question is would it be advocated that I start out with your book to learn limit to avoid learning a weak/tight style?

-Caruso329

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Since I just joined this site two days ago, I appreciate it coming back up on the forum. It's a great post. In fact, there was a post yesterday where somebody folded a straight-flush draw on the turn with the pot rather large.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

[ QUOTE ]
there was a post yesterday where somebody folded a straight-flush draw on the turn with the pot rather large.

[/ QUOTE ]
I posted yesterday about folding a gutshot SF draw. Perhaps someone else did also and you're referring to their post - but in my case, the pot was small and I was not getting the odds to call, even though it would likely be to the nuts. (I forget now if it was subject to domination and I had that happen once.)

I made that post in a thread started by a guy who folded a royal draw. The point I was making was that I would have drawn to it even though I wasn't getting the correct odds, just for a chance to put another SF notch on my belt. I had thought I was looking at a straight only draw as I had mistaken a heart for a diamond on the all red board. I am interested in getting a four color deck to avoid that problem in the future - I want a custom color one with pink and gray, as I find the blue-green kind used on Party and Pacific unsettling. =TomBk

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

I don't think yours was the one. I was definitely a straight-flush draw, and the pot was good size. And the hero only had to call one bet to get to the river. I'll try to find it.

Re: Six months later...
 

[ QUOTE ]
would it be advocated that I start out with [SSH] to learn limit to avoid learning a weak/tight style?

[/ QUOTE ]
I would say not necessarily as long as you are aware of the distinction. In WLLH for example, Lee Jones states in some places that he is advocating some plays to minimize beginner loses in thin edge situations rather than maximize profits.

If you do start out with SSH, make sure you understand when it is wise to be aggressive so you don't push in negative EV situations. That usually takes some time for the neophyte to grasp and can be quite costly to make errors with. You can find more on this exact topic discussed in the Books and Software Forum.

*BUMP*
 

For those are folding top pair on the flop to a single bet...

Re: *BUMP*
 

Because a few of you didn't get the memo.

Re: *BUMP*
 

Great post Ed - and thanks for bumping this guys - might have missed it otherwise.

As a relative newbie and one who has just started using pokertracker, wouldn't that give you a good guide as to whether you were folding too much?

Your VPIP% would give you an indication that you were getting the 'tight' part of being a tight agressive player right.

The other stats, such as WSD%, and %times folded on flop, turn and river would give you an indication if you were being too timid in the way Ed talks about.

Am I right, or being over-simplistic?

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

I'm pretty new to this site, but been playing awhile. This post really opened my eyes. I've been roughly breaking even for awhile, but having a hard time getting to the next level. This post is great.

One question - will playing this way increase this "swings" I will experience? In other words, by raising more into big pots, one will often lose a fair amount when one's hand is not best. However, when it is the best, one will win a lot. This seems to suggest that a good tolerance for swings back and forth (with a constance upward trend over time) is needed.

Is my thinking correct?

I ask becuase I have been very adverse to swings - hence I think I tend to be VERY tight and at times perhaps too eager to fold.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games... *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by IRES_GUY

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Playing the SSH way is very high-variance. But instead of seeking out a lower-variance weak-tight playing style, your BR would be better served by the higher gains you get from the high-variance style. Learn to love pain.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Swing adverse is nice, but not at the expense of grinding it out at a buck an hour. Worry about maximizing your win rate first, then worry about minimizing swings.

Remember necessary bankroll is proportional to variance divided by expectation. Increasing your expectation should be the first priority.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

Two steps forward, one step back, that is the only way to work it in a game that combines skill and chance. If you are trying to minimize swings you are working against your own best interests.

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

if not for bumping this.
when you're playing on a small bankroll, i'm talking about one that can't be replenished easily, i think you're better off decreasing variance. when you have a winning playing style, you can get your bankroll up to where you can endure the swings and then maximize the win rate.
clearly if you work on maximizing your win rate and going broke in the process you win nothing.
therefore, get your bankroll up there first, 300 is suggested by most books, if you have a nice sample size and know about confidence/deviation/variation you can calculate the needed bankroll yourself. (after playing with the maximize winning strategy for the sample size, obviously)

Re: Why you guys aren\'t crushing these Microlimit games...
 

excellent thread, reply to add to favs