The 2+2 Forum Archives: New FAQ: Updated 08/02/06

Part I: Beating Sports

Can sports be beaten consistently for a profit?

Yes. You simply have to find lines that are far enough away from the “true” line for the bet to be profitable. This requires good line shopping and/or good handicapping. Personally I know far more winning line shoppers than winning handicappers. Line shopping really cannot be stressed enough. Generally the difference between a losing sports bettor and winning sports bettor is line shopping.

How do sportsbooks make money?

Let’s take a standard wager, where you must lay -110 (11 to 10) odds. Most pointspread wagers are approximately a 50/50 proposition, something akin to flipping a coin. So you are laying 11 to 10 on the flip, while the book is TAKING 11 to 10 on the flip. Over time, the book must win. Also, the book has a margin for error in the lines. To win, you must overcome this inherent advantage by finding bets that are not true 50/50 propositions (i.e., far enough way from the true line). Note: There are lots of other types of wagers such as money lines, parlays, teasers, etc., but the basic idea is the same for them all – the sportsbook takes a fee by making you lay odds that are greater than the true odds of the wager.

What winrate do I need in order to make a profit?

This depends on the odds you are laying/taking. At standard vig (-110), you need to win 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.4% of your bets to make a profit. At any other price, you can use the same method to calculate the necessary win rate. Keep in mind that you can sometimes get by with a smaller win rate if you are collecting bonuses from the sportsbooks.

What is the highest sustainable win rate in point spread betting?

Generally, somewhere in the 55%-60% range is considered the maximum that is sustainable. However, if you start approaching the higher end of that range, you are probably passing up some +EV wagers.

Part II: Learning How to Beat Sports

What is a good bankroll to start with?

However much you can afford to lose.

What part of my bankroll should I bet for each game?

A commonly accepted guideline is 1%-2% of your bankroll.

Should I use flat betting or change my bet size each game?

If you can accurately quantify your edge on a bet, it is mathematically correct to vary your bet size. However, in practice (a) it is often hard to quantify your edge accurately and (b) the edges in sports betting are generally small enough that you don’t lose a huge amount by failing to vary your bet sizes on common point spread wagers. For these reasons, flat betting is best for most people even though it is not optimal. You can use what is known as "Kelly Betting", which is betting a certain percentage of your bankroll based on how much your edge is. If you are new, stick to the guidelines of 1-2% of your bankroll. If you know you are a winning sports bettor, then do a Google search of "Kelly Betting".

Are parlays and teasers bad bets?

Generally yes, although correlated parlays can be +EV and teasers through certain numbers in the NFL can be +EV as well. Beyond that, stay away from parlays and teasers unless you are just out for fun.

What are some websites for handicapping info?

www.sportsbookpal.com (owned and operated by moderator Craig and poster DougOzzzz)
www.covers.com
www.sportsbookreview.com
www.sharpsportsbetting.com
www.howtogamble.net (owned and operated by Waterproof; a poster in this forum).

What is a moneyline?

In a game between the Braves and the Giants, the moneyline might be Braves -150 / Giants +130. That means you have to lay 15 to 10 odds to take the Braves and you get 13 to 10 odds to take the Giants. In other words, you have to bet $150 to win $100 on the Braves and bet $100 to win $130 on the Giants.

What is an arbitrage? How do I do it?

An arbitrage, also known as a scalp (the process is often referred to as "scalping") is the process of betting both sides of a game to ensure a guaranteed profit or at least no possible losing scenario. In a quick example, say BOOK-A is offering the line of Texas +105, USC -105 and BOOK-B is offering the line of Texas -105, USC +105. You could bet on Texas +105 with BOOK-A and USC +105 at BOOK-B, and you would win $5 per $100 risked no matter which team wins the game.
For a more detailed explanation and some more examples, see the questions and answers in this thread

What are the best sportsbooks?

This depends on what sports you are betting, how often you bet, whether you want reduced juice, and lots of other factors. www.sportsbookpal.com/reviews.htm and Sportsbookreview.com has comparisons of many different books.

What are the best books to read?

Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong is a good introduction to thinking like a sharp. David Sklansky’s chapter on sports betting in Getting the Best of It provides a good explanation of the math behind betting. Roxy Roxborough’s book Sports Book Management provides a good view of how sportsbooks operate. Other suggestions welcomed. I haven’t read anything else that I would feel really comfortable listing here. I personally have learned most of what I know about sports betting from knowledgeable posters on Internet forums.

What are some general betting tips?

Check out this thread for some of Tech's suggestions on betting.

Why isn’t there more detailed information on how to bet?

Just using myself as an example, if I were to tell every little detail of how I bet sports, someone could simply beat me to the lines I want and I would be in trouble. Giving out detailed information on how to bet sports is a significantly –EV proposition for those who do it well.

How do betting exchanges like Betfair and Tradesports work? Can Americans use Betfair?

Betfair and Tradesports allow you to “trade” contracts directly with other users. The exchanges charge trading and settlement fees, much like stock exchanges. Currently, Betfair is the largest and best exchange, but it does not allow accounts from the United States (although it is rumored that this could change soon).

Where can I go for more information?

Click here for a massive amount of sports betting information, some good and some bad. At least you get different opinions to consider.
Click www.sportsbookpal.com/articles.htm for many different articles that are updated at least once a week.

Part III: The 2+2 Sports Betting Forum

What are the guidelines for posting in this forum?

Absolutely no spam, period. This is rule A, B, and C for this forum. This means no advertisements for tout services and the like. Anything falling into this category will be deleted on sight.
When you post picks, please post your season-to-date win/loss record along with units won in the subject line of your post. Also, please include at least some type of justification/reasoning for your picks. In many cases, the reasoning is more important to your readers than the actual picks. This is detailed here

What is the 3+1 challenge?

It is a handicapping contest run by EasyE on the 2+2 forums. More info can be found here.

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Part IV: Glossary

Juice – see Vigorish
Kelly betting – Kelly betting refers to a method of calculating your wager size given your edge on a bet
Middling – Betting both sides of a game in a way that gives you a chance to win both wagers. For example, let’s say Dallas is playing Denver. If you bet Dallas +3.5 at one book and Denver -2.5 at another, you win both bets if the game lands on 3. If it lands anywhere else, you only have to pay the vig. This allows you to bet much larger than your normally would.
Push – When the outcome of a game falls exactly on the line, it is a “push” and the money is returned to bettors. For example, if the line on a game is New England -3 and they win by exactly 3, it is a push.
Runline – an alternative method for betting baseball; typically given as Team A -1.5 / Team B +1.5. This means that team A has to win by at least 1.5 runs to win a bet on Team A, and a bet on Team B wins if B loses by no more than 1 run.
Scalping – betting both sides of the same game in a way that guarantees a profit; for example, laying -120 on the favorite and taking +140 on the underdog
Sharps – knowledgeable bettors
Squares – unsophisticated bettors, collectively known as “the public”
Square line – lines offered to square bettors, often shaded against favorites, overs, and other popular bets
Sharp line – lines offered to sharp bettors, often shaded against underdogs, unders, and other advantage bets
Vigorish (vig) – This is the “fee” that sportsbooks charge for your wager. So instead of getting even money on your wagers, you must lay -110, -105, or something similar. The extra money you must wager is the vig.

If you have any suggestions for items to be added to this FAQ, please PM "Performify" or "Craig" or "Tech", the moderators of the 2+2 Sports Betting Forum.

It also needs to be noted that 2+2 does not necessarily endorse any of the "outside" websites and were listed here by the moderators.

Edited by Performify (08/02/06 11:06 PM)

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