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Other Poker >> Heads Up Poker

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jay_shark
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/14/06
Posts: 2277
Advantages to re-raising preflop
      #7637184 - 10/12/06 01:21 PM

There are many advantages to re-raising heads up . First and foremost , if you believe you have the best hand , then you should re-raise !!

Second point is that i'd rather finish off my heads up sng's quickly even though it may affect my ROI . When you re-raise , your games end quickly as their is less postflop play . Praying Mantis made an excellent point that ev is ev so if you have a 53 % edge for all your stack , then you should take it !!

The ace queen hand that Nicho played imo was certainly worth a re-raise and I may even push all in with this hand if I think his range is almost any two cards .

Bottom line is that heads up sng's is about $/h and not who can have the greatest win rate .

Edited by jay_shark (10/12/06 01:36 PM)


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frede89
member


Reged: 08/07/06
Posts: 177
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: jay_shark]
      #7637369 - 10/12/06 01:34 PM

True. Another advantage can be if your opponent raise alot from SB. A re-raise will usually make him adjust his raising range from SB.

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Nichomacheo
old hand


Reged: 08/12/06
Posts: 1142
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: frede89]
      #7638174 - 10/12/06 02:26 PM

This is wrong and I'll explain why...

You specify that you should take any edge you can get because you want to maximize your $/hr, but in actuality, your $/hr is lower if you take marginally +$EV moves when you rate yourself to be better than your opponent. I made an Excel sheet to represent this. If anyone disagrees with my math then please tell me and we can resolve it.

$50, 53% WR, 1 minute games = $30/hr
$50, 53% WR, 10 minute games = $3/hr
$50, 60% WR, 1 minute games = $450/hr
$50, 60% WR, 10 minute games = $45/hr
$50, 60% WR, 15 minute games = $30/hr <-- Most realistic

The point:

If you take a 53% edge at 10 minutes you make $3/hr. If you wait and win 60% of the time after 15 minutes, you make $30/hr. Also, 53% edge at 2 minutes is only $15/hr (assuming you can do that 30 times per hour).

More scenarios later...


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jay_shark
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/14/06
Posts: 2277
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: Nichomacheo]
      #7638244 - 10/12/06 02:32 PM

It depends on when you take the coin flip . If you take a 53 % edge on the first deal , then you'll greatly improve your $/h .

Of course this depends on how long your sessions are . A passive player may take 20-30 minutes to complete his games . He may forego his 53 % edge to win 60 % of the time but you have to consider his opportunity cost in doing so .

I'll do more math analysis later on .


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PrayingMantis
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Reged: 11/03/03
Posts: 2443
Loc: some war zone
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: Nichomacheo]
      #7638627 - 10/12/06 03:00 PM

Nicho, I wouldn't say that it is *always* correct to take a 53% edge for your whole stack, but in many cases it much better than what people sometimes think. There are many reasons for this, and one of them is that players, even "very good" players, tend to overestimate their overall edge. This is a a very known fact for MTTs, for instance, where it is very well established that not taking small edges for your whole stack (througout most of the game) is infact costing you money, no matter how good you think you are.

As for your specific calculations:


Quote:

$50, 53% WR, 1 minute games = $30/hr
$50, 53% WR, 10 minute games = $3/hr
$50, 60% WR, 1 minute games = $450/hr
$50, 60% WR, 10 minute games = $45/hr
$50, 60% WR, 15 minute games = $30/hr <-- Most realistic




I think this is not a good way to look at things. The longest the game takes, the more of an indicator it is that you don't have such a great edge vs. your opponent. Think about it in terms of $/hand, as it's usualy the way people look at winrate in cash games for instance. If it was a cash games, it would usualy be a mistake to wait too much for "better" opportunities. You will cost yourself money, most of the time. Now the problem is that most players, even good ones, are not extremely efficient in recognizing any +Cev spot, that's why they feel the need to wait for better spots. Being patient is a great virtue HU, but doing so only in order to wait for "better opportunities" because you have some imaginary huge edge against an unknown player, is not optimal HU play.

Think about it this way: you'll be a huge winner, probably the biggest ever in this game, if you could take a 53% for your whole stack in each and every hand you play. So when you have an opportunity to actually do it, in a specific hand, you should have very very good reasons for not taking it.

Note: usualy when you have 33 early on and face all-in pf, you can't even be sure it is +Cev at all to call. So this point of view is certainly not about simply calling all in with 33 or something like that, it is more a theoretical point about edges and where they come from.


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jay_shark
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/14/06
Posts: 2277
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: Nichomacheo]
      #7638796 - 10/12/06 03:12 PM

If you win 53 % in 1 minute then your $/h is :

(50*0.53 - 50*0.47)-2.5 =0.5/m or 30/h

Now assume you fold this 53 % edge and wait perhaps another 15 minutes which is being generous .

(50*0.6 - 50*0.4)-2.5 = 7.5/15min which is 30/h

They are both the same and you don't have to sweat it out !! You may not even win 60 % of the time . Another point worth mentioning is that you don't always finish off your opponent in 15 minutes . There have been many times when i've played 60-100 hands and I don't always come out the winner .


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Nichomacheo
old hand


Reged: 08/12/06
Posts: 1142
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: jay_shark]
      #7639608 - 10/12/06 04:04 PM

Quote:

This is a a very known fact for MTTs, for instance, where it is very well established that not taking small edges for your whole stack (througout most of the game) is infact costing you money, no matter how good you think you are.




Yes, but this is Heads Up. A good Heads Up player will have a much greater advantage over a weak opponent than a good Heads Up player will have over a weak field.

Quote:

The longest the game takes, the more of an indicator it is that you don't have such a great edge vs. your opponent.




I'd say the longer you play the more of an edge you have over your opponent if you are a good player. How much of an edge can you have if you barely have any read? After 10 or 15 minutes, you have that read and can make informed, professional decisions.

Quote:

Think about it in terms of $/hand, as it's usualy the way people look at winrate in cash games for instance.




# hands is directly proportional to time in the long run.

Quote:

Think about it this way: you'll be a huge winner, probably the biggest ever in this game, if you could take a 53% for your whole stack in each and every hand you play.




and

Quote:

If you win 53 % in 1 minute then your $/h is :




This will never, ever happen. You cannot get in as a 53% at the frequency you guys are talking about. Sure, 53% at 1m/game and 60% at 15m/game are identical $/hr rates, but you are much more likely to get in as a 60% favorite after 15 minutes than you are as a 53% favorite after 1 minute over the course of a lot of games. Like I said earlier, see how often you can get it in as a 53% favorite during the first minute. You simply cant do it. You'll wind up getting it all in as less than 53% favorite, maybe like 45%, which cuts deeply into your hourly rate.

Quote:

Another point worth mentioning is that you don't always finish off your opponent in 15 minutes . There have been many times when i've played 60-100 hands and I don't always come out the winner .




Then get better? You still shouldnt take a 53% situation in the first few minutes if you are a good Heads Up player.

All of this assumes you are a good player. All I'm advocating is not taking marginally +EV moves early because you win more in the long run by using your talent to outplay your opponents.


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PrayingMantis
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 11/03/03
Posts: 2443
Loc: some war zone
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: Nichomacheo]
      #7640443 - 10/12/06 04:59 PM

First I must say that this discussion is extremely similar to quite a few discussions about pretty much the same subject in the last 4 years on the MTT and SNG forums around here, also regarding HU (particularly at the SNG forum, around 1-1.5 years ago). I pretty much guarentee you that in the not very far future you'll be sure that the general approach I'm talking about here is more profitable. However, it seems to me that you are very much attached to your own traditional ideas about HU, which is fine, and I'm certainly not going to spend a lot of time convincing you otherwise.



Quote:

Yes, but this is Heads Up. A good Heads Up player will have a much greater advantage over a weak opponent than a good Heads Up player will have over a weak field.




No. If you assume that Cev=$ev in HU as in most stages of MTT, the edge you have over the field (whether it is HU or MTT), even if you are the best player in the world, does not qualify as a reason for not taking small +Cev gambles (and even the smallest) for your whole stack. This was discussed many many times in the MTT forum here and elsewhere by numerous great poker players and theoreticians, and has nothing to do with the "degree" or "amount" of edge you have over the field. In fact, the very ability to take any possible +Cev spot, small as it may be, is the thing that turns players into great players.

Quote:

I'd say the longer you play the more of an edge you have over your opponent if you are a good player.




This doesn't make much sense. Of course your reads are probably getting better, but if you have even stacks after 40 minutes of playing HU SNG, in most normal circumsances you will have a very very tough time convincing me you are a 60% favorite, or pretty much any number >52% or so.

Quote:

How much of an edge can you have if you barely have any read? After 10 or 15 minutes, you have that read and can make informed, professional decisions.




You are making somewhat of a logical error here. The theoretical assumption was that you *know* you are 53% when facing all in (regardless of how unrealistic it is). This is having pretty much perfect information in a specific spot. Of course I agree that in normal circumstances it does make sense to wait some more for a better read, however, this has nothing to do with the theoretical point discussed.

I won't adress the other points, as I pretty much addressed them in some way earlier here or in my few other posts. Again, you should have some very very strong reasons for not taking clear +Cev gambles, even if they are quite small, and even if they are for big chunks of your stack. Folding in these spots consistently will certainly hurt your winrate, regardless of how good of a player you think you are.


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Nichomacheo
old hand


Reged: 08/12/06
Posts: 1142
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: PrayingMantis]
      #7640764 - 10/12/06 05:22 PM

Address this.

$100+$5 SNG

53% winrate, 28 games an hour, nets you $28/hr
56% winrate, 4 games an hour, nets you $28/hr

Meaning, if you can increase your chances to win by more than 3% by playing 12 more minutes/game, you're better off playing the longer game. And I doubt you need 12 minutes to gain a 3% edge.

Another way to look at it: you need to make 53% moves 7x more often than 56% in order for it to be the same.


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jay_shark
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/14/06
Posts: 2277
Re: Advantages to re-raising preflop [Re: Nichomacheo]
      #7641051 - 10/12/06 05:43 PM

Yes but we're talking about taking a 53 % edge on the first hand .

There was one example of a hand you posted where you comtemplated folding AK s on the first few deals because you thought you had a greater edge . I believe a push/call to be routine .

There are exceptions to every rule and the most important decision is your expected incremental increase if you decide to fold this small edge .

We can turn this into a calculus problem :P


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