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PL/NL Texas Hold'em >> Small Stakes

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NinaWilliams
Pooh-Bah

Reged: 08/13/05
Posts: 2008
Loc: Broken-hearted, Battle-scarred

Value bet this river with AA?
#5495863 - 04/19/06 02:12 PM

Villian is 44/5/0.25/ and is tight passive post flop.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $26.37
Hero: $28.55
Button: $19.33
SB: $25.90
BB: $15.54

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A

A

UTG calls, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: Q

9

2

($2.85, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.75, UTG calls.

Turn: 3

($8.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG calls.

River: 5

($20.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ???

value bet this river?, if so how much?

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xxPsychonautxx
newbie

Reged: 04/19/06
Posts: 37

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: NinaWilliams]
#5496007 - 04/19/06 02:19 PM

First I thought he would draw to a flush. But his turn call doesnt seem so. I would take him to 99 or 22 and his passive calling down his set.
But I really dont know where to put his river check.

I think I would check the river. If he is beaten he will likely not call a 10 - 20$ bet.
If you are beaten its an expensive bet.
lose/lose situation IMHO.

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TheIronGame
journeyman

Reged: 01/26/06
Posts: 54
Loc: Beaver Nation Bitches!!!

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: NinaWilliams]
#5496305 - 04/19/06 02:38 PM

I was going to say check-behind, but at this stake 95% of people lead out when there flush/straight draw hits on the river. This hand looks alot like a 44/5 playing his QJ, JT, QT...TP shitkicker is gold to these guys...

1/2 pot it.

TIG

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PayoffWiz
old hand

Reged: 08/22/05
Posts: 1022
Loc: law school

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: xxPsychonautxx]
#5496477 - 04/19/06 02:49 PM

Quote:

First I thought he would draw to a flush. But his turn call doesnt seem so. I would take him to 99 or 22 and his passive calling down his set.
But I really dont know where to put his river check.

You are kidding right? You think he is check-calling a set to the river?

You are probably good here. I could go either way with this, but I generally dislike betting one pair on the river and I can certainly see a made flush checking the river. I would check behind.

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beavens
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 11/30/04
Posts: 3316
Loc: i kill with my heart.

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: NinaWilliams]
#5496528 - 04/19/06 02:53 PM

i don't believe he's got it - i'm 1/2 potting.

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Dazen
member

Reged: 06/04/05
Posts: 156
Loc: Hilaristupidity

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: beavens]
#5496564 - 04/19/06 02:55 PM

I'm looking at this COMPLETE calling-station and I would lean towards betting.

1/2 pot seems about right, yes.

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AZplaya
Posts Like a Pooh Bah

Reged: 02/08/06
Posts: 1992
Loc: pwning NL $50

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: PayoffWiz]
#5496626 - 04/19/06 02:59 PM

Quote:

I can certainly see a made flush checking the river. I would check behind.

Ditto

Quote:

I was going to say check-behind, but at this stake 95% of people lead out when there flush/straight draw hits on the river.

I disagree completely. People at these stakes are slowplay happy. I think a made flush goes for a check raise here at least 60% of the time, maybe more.

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frinj
stranger

Reged: 01/26/06
Posts: 10

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: PayoffWiz]
#5496655 - 04/19/06 03:01 PM

A set would fear the flush and likely raise by the turn. A tight player should fold a flush draw to the turn bet. So I put him on top pair here and bet accordingly.

I would probably bet 1/3 the pot here, and fold to a push.

One reason I like to bet here is to keep the hands I play disguised. A check shows the world how I play AA. If he folds to the river bet, I've gained by keeping my hand a secret. If he raises and I fold, I've got a good idea that he chases flush draws to the river and I keep my own hand a secret by folding. I don't see a set raising even a low river bet here, particularly not a by a passive player, because a low river bet by you could look like you caught the flush and are betting low for fear of scaring him off. I think you only get raised by the flush and then you can fold with info about your opps play without revealing much about your own play.

It also sets up a future hand where you have a monster and bet low at the river trying to get something out of your opp, and they recall you folding to an all in push in a similar situation, and so they do it and you call. If you always check less than a 2 pair at the river, who would ever call your river bet without a big hand?

In the long run, I think you need to bet this river if just for table image and to get paid off in other situations. So really, I see lots of positives for a low river bet, like 1/3 the pot. 1/2 pot is too much because it is unlikely to get called by JJ or KQ, and it may pot commit you to calling if he pushes. With a 1/3 pot bet, you can let go if he pushes all in and there is a good chance top pair -- sometimes even less -- will call it.

Lastly, betting 1/3 the pot and folding to a push, your opp STILL has not made the implied odds he needed in order to call your turn bet with a flush draw. So you are still keeping his turn call a negative ev move.

~Frinj~

Edited by frinj (04/19/06 03:10 PM)

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thedustbustr
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 09/01/05
Posts: 8556

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: AZplaya]
#5496706 - 04/19/06 03:03 PM

you need to get value here. bet this every single time all day, barring some sick read. i dont care if he check/calls the nuts every street, a player like this will absolutely call $10-$15 with a queen, he might even call if you shoved. don't worry about committing yourself, if he pushes you are calling your last $5, but he will call your vb with less than a flush very often.

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Finite_Risk
addict

Reged: 03/05/05
Posts: 491
Loc: Hating Ohio State!

Re: Value bet this river with AA? [Re: frinj]
#5496734 - 04/19/06 03:05 PM

Betting 1/3 pot begs to be blown out of this hand - bet at least half pot or check behind

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