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Other Topics >> Sporting Events

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sublime
Mr. Roper


Reged: 03/12/04
Posts: 15586
Loc: our only chance!
84 > 56?
      #8533158 - 12/23/06 07:14 AM

joe d's 56 game hitting streak is considered a great baseball feat and untouchable etc....why is there *never* a mention of teddy's 84 games in a row getting on base? dimaggios greatest stretch falls ~10 games short (overlaps hitting streak) and bonds fell something like 10+ short also.

which was more valuable to his team? is it as simple as going thru dimaggios 56 and seeing his vorp and doing the same for williams, or is it more complex?


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crockpot
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 07/02/03
Posts: 4980
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Re: 84 > 56? [Re: sublime]
      #8533281 - 12/23/06 08:02 AM

on base percentage may have worked its way onto espn player cards, but i don't see 'times on base' replacing hits.

also it's not the value to the team, rather the rarity of the event, that makes it a big deal. we both know the 1941 mvp vote was skewed by the yanks' first place finish and all the media attention on joe d during the streak. an 84 game on base streak is much, much more likely to occur than 56, assuming a .350/.450 true hitter. (by my admittedly crude math, i'm thinking it's 100-1000 times more likely.)

Edited by crockpot (12/23/06 08:02 AM)


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Toro
tavarez > wakefield, LDO


Reged: 12/10/02
Posts: 6849
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Re: 84 > 56? [Re: sublime]
      #8533295 - 12/23/06 08:11 AM

Quote:

joe d's 56 game hitting streak is considered a great baseball feat and untouchable etc....why is there *never* a mention of teddy's 84 games in a row getting on base? dimaggios greatest stretch falls ~10 games short (overlaps hitting streak) and bonds fell something like 10+ short also.

which was more valuable to his team? is it as simple as going thru dimaggios 56 and seeing his vorp and doing the same for williams, or is it more complex?




This one is simple. Mr. Coffee's 56 game streak was a lot harder to do. When he was approcaching the existing record, Wee Willie Keeler, I think, there were games he wouldn't get pitched to.

And the same thing happens whenever a Pete Rose or whoever makes a run at Dimaggio, they get pitched around. The same thing can't happen for the other streak. If they pitch around you and you get a walk, the streak continues.

But thanks for posting it because I had never even heard of the 84 game streak before so in that respect you are absolutley correct that it doesnt get it's due because it's an amazing record.

Edit to add: I should do a little homework to verify this but I'm pretty sure that Dimaggio's BA during the 56 game streak did not even approach Teddy Ballgame's .406 BA.

Edit to add: Should have done my homework.

During the streak Joe DiMaggio had 91 hits, 22 multi-hit games, 5 three hit games, four four hit games, a. 408 batting average that included 15 home runs and 55 runs batted in.


Edited by Toro (12/23/06 08:21 AM)


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Pudge714
Ship it Holla Brother


Reged: 05/04/05
Posts: 13713
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Re: 84 > 56? [Re: Toro]
      #8533845 - 12/23/06 11:11 AM

Crockpot assuming five at bats per game
P he gets a hit is 1-(.650)^5
P he gets a 56 game hitting streak is (1-(.650)^5)^56
0.001001214807359

P he gets on base 1-(.550)^5
P he get 84 game OBP streak (1-(.550)^5)^56
0.013066774880338

I think all the math is correct, but it doesn't seem right.


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FlyWf
angriest dude in the prison yard


Reged: 04/18/04
Posts: 3237
Loc: Brian Coming imo
Re: 84 > 56? [Re: sublime]
      #8535284 - 12/23/06 03:02 PM

Quote:

joe d's 56 game hitting streak is considered a great baseball feat and untouchable etc....why is there *never* a mention of teddy's 84 games in a row getting on base? dimaggios greatest stretch falls ~10 games short (overlaps hitting streak) and bonds fell something like 10+ short also.

which was more valuable to his team? is it as simple as going thru dimaggios 56 and seeing his vorp and doing the same for williams, or is it more complex?




Well, it's not famous because until the 1980s baseball writers pretty much thought walks were the pitcher's fault. It has nothing to do with value. People who hit for the cycle are more famous than guys who go 4-5 with 2 HR and 2 doubles.

I've always heard that during DiMaggio's streak Williams had the higher BA(not implausible given the numbers researched in this thread). Streaks are trivia, not value. Williams was a vastly more valuable player than DiMaggio for most of their careers.


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shemp
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 05/20/03
Posts: 2733
Loc: www.twoplustwo.com
Re: 84 > 56? [Re: Pudge714]
      #8535300 - 12/23/06 03:04 PM

Quote:

Crockpot assuming five at bats per game
P he gets a hit is 1-(.650)^5
P he gets a 56 game hitting streak is (1-(.650)^5)^56
0.001001214807359

P he gets on base 1-(.550)^5
P he get 84 game OBP streak (1-(.550)^5)^ 84
0.013066774880338

I think all the math is correct, but it doesn't seem right.




FYM.

A bigger problem is with your assumptions of plate appearances (should be fewer) and with batting average (hit/PA would be lower).


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J.R.
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 09/04/02
Posts: 5406
Re: 84 > 56? [Re: sublime]
      #8535607 - 12/23/06 03:40 PM

Quote:

which was more valuable to his team? is it as simple as going thru dimaggios 56 and seeing his vorp and doing the same for williams, or is it more complex?




That gets into the silliness of equating a statistical oddity with value. The value is not in getting a hit in each game but the quality and quantity of his performance over all of these games. Other batters had had a better 56 game performance than DiMaggio.


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sublime
Mr. Roper


Reged: 03/12/04
Posts: 15586
Loc: our only chance!
Re: 84 > 56? [Re: J.R.]
      #8535696 - 12/23/06 03:52 PM

Quote:

Quote:

which was more valuable to his team? is it as simple as going thru dimaggios 56 and seeing his vorp and doing the same for williams, or is it more complex?




That gets into the silliness of equating a statistical oddity with value. The value is not in getting a hit in each game but the quality and quantity of his performance over all of these games. Other batters had had a better 56 game performance than DiMaggio.





i was quite silly this AM indeed! 18 hours of sleep will mess a brutha up.


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rwperu34
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 12/11/04
Posts: 1955
Loc: Tempe, AZ
Re: 84 > 56? [Re: FlyWf]
      #8536545 - 12/23/06 05:29 PM

Quote:

I've always heard that during DiMaggio's streak Williams had the higher BA(not implausible given the numbers researched in this thread).




Williams batted .412 during Dimaggio's streak, Dimaggio hit .408.


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crockpot
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 07/02/03
Posts: 4980
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Re: 84 > 56? [Re: shemp]
      #8537714 - 12/23/06 07:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Crockpot assuming five at bats per game
P he gets a hit is 1-(.650)^5
P he gets a 56 game hitting streak is (1-(.650)^5)^56
0.001001214807359

P he gets on base 1-(.550)^5
P he get 84 game OBP streak (1-(.550)^5)^ 84
0.013066774880338

I think all the math is correct, but it doesn't seem right.




FYM.

A bigger problem is with your assumptions of plate appearances (should be fewer) and with batting average (hit/PA would be lower).




nobody averages 5 AB/game, and a batter who actually hits .350/.450 would take a lot of walks and hbp, so his plate appearances/game would be significantly higher than AB/game. this changes the math considerably.

i used a very simple distribution which only considered common numbers of at-bats and plate appearances, and assumed about 650 AB and 750 PA/year. i may actually build a more complicated model since it's an interesting question.

any time your equation computes a 1/1000 chance of a 56 game hitting streak, you need to double-check your work. that number is way, way too high.


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